Thread: NodakPaul's first round thoughts...

OK, so with the draft tomorrow, I decided I would finally weigh in on my thought process for our first pick.

There are four scenarios that are generally accepted as possible tomorrow:
1) The Vikings pick Kalil
2) The Vikings pick Blackmon
3) The Vikings pick Claiborne
4) The Vikings trade down

It is obvious that our biggest needs are at LT, WR, and CB. Ideally, we will address two of those needs in the first two rounds. While Blackmon and Claiborne are bigger impact players than Kalil, the talent level at OT drops off so much in this draft class (especially in comparison to WR and CB) that I am convinced that we will take an OT somewhere in the first round.

That means that scenarios 2 & 3 are not going to happen IMHO.

So we either take Kalil with the #3, or trade down and try to snag Reiff. After Reiff goes, the talent at OT goes down quickly, and we need someone who can start week 1. Because of that, if we do trade down, we can't trade down out of the top 9. I simply don't see Reiff making it past Buffalo at 10.

Trade possibilities:

1. Cleveland - Will not trade up. Regardless of who goes at #3, Cleveland will take Richardson, Blackmon or Claiborne. All three are solid picks.
2. Tampa Bay - Will not trade up. They are eying Blackmon or Claiborne. With Cleveland almost certainly taking Richardson if he is available, there is an almost certain chance that either one of their guys will be there at 5.
3. St Louis - Could be convinced to move up, especially if they are targeting Blackmon or Kalil, neither of who will make it to the #6 spot if the Vikings stay put. But I doubt it. WR is easily their biggest need, but there are a lot of quality WRs who will be available in the second round. And they don't need to trade up for Kalil because Reiff will be available stille.
4. Jacksonville - Probably won't trade up. They could use a WR and OT, but their biggest need is at DE, and they will be able to take the first one off the board.
5. Miami - The only player they might be enticed to trade up for is Blackmon, but again, there are a lot of good WRs who will be available later in this draft. I don't see them moving up. Besides, if they want Tannehill, he will still be here.
6. Carolina - Won't trade up - at least not to #3. They need too much help on the defensive line, and Jax is the only team in front of them with the same needs. They will gladly take Claiborne if he falls to them, otherwise will concentrate on DL.

So that is picks 4-9, and I don't see a viable trade partner. If we trade with Buffalo, they will almost certainly take Kalil, which would mean St Louis will take Reiff, and the Vikings would be shit out of luck.

So when all is said and done, unless we get a RGIII level trade offer (which is possible), I don't see us trading out of the #3 spot. And with the #3 pick, the Minnesota Vikings will be selecting Matt Kalil, Tackle, USC.

So basically, this is how I think the top nine will round out:

1. Indianapolis - Luck
2. Washington - RGIII
3. Minnesota - Kalil
4. Cleveland - Richardson
5. Tampa Bay - Claiborne
6. St Louis - Reiff
7. Jacksonville - Coples
8. Miami - Tannehill
9. Carolina - Cox

I sure as hell hope your right.. talent does drop off drastically after Khalil and Reiff...

Claiborne is an awesome pick, but I think we need Khalil more. Plus, a Janoris jenkins with all his problems will still be around by our second pick...

I'd rather have a combo of Khalil and Jenkins

VS

Claiborne, Martin/receiver/etc.

I am sure this is a pipe dream but listen to this. I had a dream that Tampa got scared Cleveland was going to take Richardson so they traded up to 3 and we moved back to 5. Cleveland lost out on Richardson so they drafting Claiborne. St. Louis got scared Blackmon wouldnt be there at 6 so they traded up to 5 and we moved back to 6 and Kalil fell in our laps at the number 6 spot and we gained some nice extra picks for moving back twice.

Sorry to somewhat hijack the thread Nodak.

I'm inclined to agree with NodakPaul's picks, IF nobody trades out of there. Interestingly, that drops Blackmon out of the top ten, which is the only real surprise there.

Given that, though, it would not surprise me at all to see someone pull a trade with either St. Louis or Jacksonville to snag HIM, rather than Tannehill, before Miami. Both Reiff and Coples could potentially still be on the board a few picks later on, so it's not a major setback for the Rams or Jags to move back a few spots.

I believe that Tampa Bay will trade with us. I believe they will give us their second round pick, and with that we still get Khalil, and we draft Ashlon Jeffery and Janoris Jenkins, and thats a HELL of a second round and I do a dance.

I have heard that there are a LOT of character issues with Janoris Jenkins, ala Pacman Jones. I would rather have maybe the guy from South Carolina, Stephon Gilmore, or Dre Kirkpatrick from Alabama...

Originally Posted by NodakPaul

OK, so with the draft tomorrow, I decided I would finally weigh in on my thought process for our first pick.

You know how much I love these things, especially from the smartest cat on PPO.

As always, a couple of thoughts...comments.

There are four scenarios that are generally accepted as possible tomorrow:
1) The Vikings pick Kalil
2) The Vikings pick Blackmon
3) The Vikings pick Claiborne
4) The Vikings trade down

I don't care much what everyone else is saying, what I care about, or really give credence to, is what the Vikes have done in the off season.

a. Brought in a G but nothing at LT
b. Brought in 2 CB's
c. Signed a new WR with alot of potential and resigned one that they saw some flash out of at the end of the season.
d. Promoted a 3 tech to the 1 tech and brought back Evans (still not sure why).

It is obvious that our biggest needs are at LT, WR, and CB.

If you look at that, our obvious needs can be reduced a bit, well, except for one position. LT

Do we have a bunch of shutdown CB's in the secondary? No, but you don't need them in this scheme. Not unless your going to change your scheme. A look at Cook and one could almost entertain the idea of using him and MC together on the field. It would also explain why they haven't really brought in a true 0 tech to fill Phat Pats role in this scheme.

In all likely hood, I don't think MC is the pick, nor do I think that Spielman thinks CB is as big a need as most fans do. Again, scheme doesn't dictate it.

WR. Could we use someone like the top rated WR? Sure, but again, lets get back to scheme and what we did in the off season. Not really sure you could make a case for having Carlson, Rudy and the Bevy of young TE's on the roster if you are going to run single TE sets.

An upgrade is needed, but you can get almost the same talent late into the 3rd round.

LT. Here is were the rubber meets the road. They have done absolutely nothing to upgrade this position. Couple that with a FA class that doesn't have anyone worth grabbing and you can see only one solution for this and that is the draft.

With 2 LT's on the board (possibly a 3rd depending on what scouting staff you believe) you have to get one someplace in the top 10 and that will be a risk that one of them might not be there much past 6, possibly 7.

Which gets you to this.....

Trade possibilities:

1. Cleveland - Will not trade up. Regardless of who goes at #3, Cleveland will take Richardson, Blackmon or Claiborne. All three are solid picks.
2. Tampa Bay - Will not trade up. They are eying Blackmon or Claiborne. With Cleveland almost certainly taking Richardson if he is available, there is an almost certain chance that either one of their guys will be there at 5

It is basically going to come down to Cleveland and Tampa and if Ricky boy can play one on the other enough to get them to come up and take our spot, give up theirs and add atleast a 3rd, possibly a second.

So that is picks 4-9, and I don't see a viable trade partner.

I'm not so sure....

Report: Browns and Bucs Looking to Trade Up to Snag Richardson » NFL Gridiron Gab

If ole Ricky boy pulls this one off, I think we all need to cut him some slack.

So when all is said and done, unless we get a RGIII level trade offer (which is possible), I don't see us trading out of the #3 spot. And with the #3 pick, the Minnesota Vikings will be selecting Matt Kalil, Tackle, USC.

I agree, to a point. I think Kalil has always been the guy and if a trading partner doesn't come up, that doesn't allow us to move down and still get him, he will still be the guy at 3.

After all is said and done, all the talk about everything else has been nothing more than a GM (yes Singer he is our GM) trying to get the most of of a draft.

Again, good stuff my friend.

I believe you Marr.
After all this is a GM that has several layers to his draft process and each layer goes out to multiple decimal points in detail. There is no way, he has a 3 way tie. My fear however, is can he pull it off without being screwed. You are dancing with the devil when you try to predict what other teams are going to do. Whats to keep a team from trading up with the Browns and snagging Kalil from us. Dangerous game you are playing....

Originally Posted by kevoncox

I believe you Marr.
After all this is a GM that has several layers to his draft process and each layer goes out to multiple decimal points in detail. There is no way, he has a 3 way tie. My fear however, is can he pull it off without being screwed. You are dancing with the devil when you try to predict what other teams are going to do. Whats to keep a team from trading up with the Browns and snagging Kalil from us. Dangerous game you are playing....

Even if he does lose Kalil, he still gets a starter that fits a need at 5. Should be able to add another starter, or at least a nice young rotation guy that will become a starter with the extra pick.

When you are trying to rebuild, you gotta roll the dice sometimes my friend.