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  1. #21
    NodakPaul's Avatar
    NodakPaul is offline Jersey Retired
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    Quote Originally Posted by VKG4LFE View Post
    Yeah the bengals did a good job in that draft by getting dalton. We did not do a good job reaching for freakin ponder.
    Hindsight is 20/20, and keep in mind that Dalton had AJ Green to throw to. And while the Bengal's OL was horrible at run blocking, they were actually decent at pass protection, something that Ponder did not have last year.

    Fix our OL and get a true #1 WR to complement Harvin and out TE sets, and I think Ponder will surprise a lot of people.
    Zeus wrote:
    When are you going to realize that picking out the 20 bad throws this year and ignoring the 300 good ones does not make your point?

    =Z=

  2. #22
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    The thing with the draft is every pick is a gamble to some extent. Going on a rough estimate, what would you say the League-wide percentage of first round picks who work out to be as good as hoped is? 50%? Maybe, 60%?

    OK, so lets guess that about %60 of first round picks work out, but that number goes down significantly as you go through the rounds. I'd guess that by the 7th round we're looking at more of a %5 success ratio. So perhaps, you could roughly estimate that every 16 picks, or half a round, your chances of making a successful pick goes down by about %5...even with lowered expectations for late picks. So, you're generally looking at a success rate of:

    First half of the first round, %60
    2nd half of the first round, %55
    Top half of the 2nd, %50
    2nd half of the 2nd, %45
    Top of the third, %40
    Later third picks, %35
    and so on down the line. Other than 2005 when we batted a zero thanks to McDick's cost cutting on scouts etc, and 2006 when we reached big time for Cook and TJack thanks to Chiller and Foley's follies, I'd bet we're right in those averages, and perhaps, a bit better than average in some of the later rounds having hit on guys like Robison, E.Griffen, and perhaps, Ballard in the 4th; Ray Edwards and Guion in the 5th; and Joe Webb and Sullivan in the 6th.

    And, with last year's lack of offseason and delayed UDFAs, we really needed to fill out our roster with some late round picks, and Spielman managed to turn our 3rd into 4 extra picks (3 6ths and a 7). Not Bad. Not Great, but not bad either.

    We've only picked this early once before, and I hope it doesn't happen for another 20 years or so, but this is the draft that will define not just Spielman's legacy, but our Minnesota Vikings for the next 4 or 5 years. Here's to hoping for the best! SKOL VIKINGS!!!!!

    Control the line, control the time, and give your D a chance to shine!!

    "Balance it on end and thats the third side of the coin!!" -wookiefoot

  3. #23
    VKG4LFE's Avatar
    VKG4LFE is offline Jersey Retired Tetris Champion, Monkey GO Happy 4 Champion
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    Quote Originally Posted by NodakPaul View Post
    Hindsight is 20/20, and keep in mind that Dalton had AJ Green to throw to. And while the Bengal's OL was horrible at run blocking, they were actually decent at pass protection, something that Ponder did not have last year.

    Fix our OL and get a true #1 WR to complement Harvin and out TE sets, and I think Ponder will surprise a lot of people.
    I hope so, but I'm definitely not going to hold my breath on this guy.

    I get the most pissed off looks from people with my VKG 4 LFE Wisconsin license plate, and I LOVE IT!!

  4. #24
    YouthVikesFan is offline Training Camp
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    Quote Originally Posted by mountainviking View Post
    The thing with the draft is every pick is a gamble to some extent. Going on a rough estimate, what would you say the League-wide percentage of first round picks who work out to be as good as hoped is? 50%? Maybe, 60%?

    OK, so lets guess that about %60 of first round picks work out, but that number goes down significantly as you go through the rounds. I'd guess that by the 7th round we're looking at more of a %5 success ratio. So perhaps, you could roughly estimate that every 16 picks, or half a round, your chances of making a successful pick goes down by about %5...even with lowered expectations for late picks. So, you're generally looking at a success rate of:

    First half of the first round, %60
    2nd half of the first round, %55
    Top half of the 2nd, %50
    2nd half of the 2nd, %45
    Top of the third, %40
    Later third picks, %35
    and so on down the line. Other than 2005 when we batted a zero thanks to McDick's cost cutting on scouts etc, and 2006 when we reached big time for Cook and TJack thanks to Chiller and Foley's follies, I'd bet we're right in those averages, and perhaps, a bit better than average in some of the later rounds having hit on guys like Robison, E.Griffen, and perhaps, Ballard in the 4th; Ray Edwards and Guion in the 5th; and Joe Webb and Sullivan in the 6th.

    And, with last year's lack of offseason and delayed UDFAs, we really needed to fill out our roster with some late round picks, and Spielman managed to turn our 3rd into 4 extra picks (3 6ths and a 7). Not Bad. Not Great, but not bad either.

    We've only picked this early once before, and I hope it doesn't happen for another 20 years or so, but this is the draft that will define not just Spielman's legacy, but our Minnesota Vikings for the next 4 or 5 years. Here's to hoping for the best! SKOL VIKINGS!!!!!

    +1 good post

  5. #25
    bleedpurple is offline Ring of Fame
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    Quote Originally Posted by NodakPaul View Post
    Interesting. Now the real question is how does Spielman's track record compare to that of the rest of the league. I don't have the time to do the research, but my guess is that it is about average. I posted in another thread all of the draft picks from 2006 on, and about 30% of them were decent value picks for the spot selected. That is pretty good IMHO. It probably drops off a little if you just go 2007 an on, but then again, many players don't come into their own until year three or four, so that is a hard analysis.

    A lot of people complain about Spielman, and I understand it - but at the same time, I don't know if we are holding him to a decent standard or not. I think that last year was the first draft that he truly put his stamp on, and it is too early to tell with that class. I think Ponder and Rudolph have the most chance of turning into above average players. Ballard looked good and bad at times... but the rest I couldn't pick out of a crowd. I think I saw Burton in a couple of games, and I remember Mistryl (sp?) Raymond breaking the Vikings INT dry spell against Washington last year. But the rest of the names I don't even recognize. Doesn't mean anything at this point though - they probably didn't see the field their rookie year.

    So that puts us at 3 out of 10 with potential (which is coincidentally 30%)... Seems par for the course to me.
    i think the biggest issue with Spielman is not necessarily the success rate, bc it's about average, but it's the lack of success in rounds past 4. Not to mention a few flops in the 2nd and 3rd round. Bad or questionable trades and the positions he's drafted..

    for example, we didn't need toby gerhart in the 2nd, but we gave up 2 2nd round picks to move up to get him when we needed depth at other positions... he's a decent player but he's a slower version of AP in his running style...

    Or taking Rudolph when we have Shuler and Shank on the roster... When we may need a DL or OL or LB..

    Ignoring the offensive line until very late in the drafts...

    So in addition to the success rate, he drafts questionable positions when a player of equal value in a position of need is sitting there... not to mention over valuing players i.e. TJack or Gerhart giving up valuable 2nd and 3rd round picks when those guys would have been sitting there...

    So i think it's just the overall thought process to the draft in addition to the success rate of drafts...

  6. #26
    bleedpurple is offline Ring of Fame
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    Quote Originally Posted by mountainviking View Post
    The thing with the draft is every pick is a gamble to some extent. Going on a rough estimate, what would you say the League-wide percentage of first round picks who work out to be as good as hoped is? 50%? Maybe, 60%?

    OK, so lets guess that about %60 of first round picks work out, but that number goes down significantly as you go through the rounds. I'd guess that by the 7th round we're looking at more of a %5 success ratio. So perhaps, you could roughly estimate that every 16 picks, or half a round, your chances of making a successful pick goes down by about %5...even with lowered expectations for late picks. So, you're generally looking at a success rate of:

    First half of the first round, %60
    2nd half of the first round, %55
    Top half of the 2nd, %50
    2nd half of the 2nd, %45
    Top of the third, %40
    Later third picks, %35
    and so on down the line. Other than 2005 when we batted a zero thanks to McDick's cost cutting on scouts etc, and 2006 when we reached big time for Cook and TJack thanks to Chiller and Foley's follies, I'd bet we're right in those averages, and perhaps, a bit better than average in some of the later rounds having hit on guys like Robison, E.Griffen, and perhaps, Ballard in the 4th; Ray Edwards and Guion in the 5th; and Joe Webb and Sullivan in the 6th.

    And, with last year's lack of offseason and delayed UDFAs, we really needed to fill out our roster with some late round picks, and Spielman managed to turn our 3rd into 4 extra picks (3 6ths and a 7). Not Bad. Not Great, but not bad either.

    We've only picked this early once before, and I hope it doesn't happen for another 20 years or so, but this is the draft that will define not just Spielman's legacy, but our Minnesota Vikings for the next 4 or 5 years. Here's to hoping for the best! SKOL VIKINGS!!!!!

    maybe so... but the lack of hits on late round picks.. other than Sully... We may have 1 or 2 other starters or key player contributing on our team drafted after the 4th round in the last 5 years...

    Not to mention how he's neglected the o-line, LB, Safety until late rounds, whiffed on just about every drafted corner and drafted our only 2 rb's in the early rounds... (not complaining about AP)

    he over value's players quite a bit too

  7. #27
    jmcdon00's Avatar
    jmcdon00 is offline Jersey Retired Snake Champion, Moto Trial Fest 2: Mountain Pack Champion, LL City Truck 2 Champion, Arithmetic sequence Champion, Troops Tower Defense Champion
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zeus View Post
    I'm assuming you mean AD. That was hardly a "no-brainer" pick. There were some at the draft party (including me) who wanted Brady Quinn. (Yes, I know that was stupid). But let me ask you this - would you rather have AD right now or Patrick Willis? How about Darrelle Revis? Both of those guys were drafted after AD.

    2007 NFL Draft Listing - Pro-Football-Reference.com

    =Z=
    Going forward sure, Peterson is coming off major surgery. Looking back at the last 5 years though Peterson was as good as anyone in the 07 draft.

  8. #28
    Johnson14's Avatar
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    There were some good players taken in first 2 rounds in '07.. not really pertinent to this thread but just saying. lol

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zeus View Post
    There were some at the draft party (including me) who wanted Brady Quinn. (Yes, I know that was stupid).[/url]

    =Z=
    I remember that & if I recall correctly your preference was also recorded on tape & published on Vikings.com.

    But don't feel too bad, there were people here on PP.O that wanted the Vikings to trade up to take JaMarcus Russell.

    "If at first you don't succeed, parachuting is not for you"

  10. #30
    VKG4LFE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by singersp View Post
    I remember that & if I recall correctly your preference was also recorded on tape & published on Vikings.com.

    But don't feel too bad, there were people here on PP.O that wanted the Vikings to trade up to take JaMarcus Russell.
    haha i remember that. I was on the news talking to my brother and i wanted quinn and he wanted ad. He won. haha

    I get the most pissed off looks from people with my VKG 4 LFE Wisconsin license plate, and I LOVE IT!!

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