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  1. #11
    cajunvike's Avatar
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    Re: Will Calvin Johnson drop to number 7?

    "NodakPaul" wrote:
    I've seen debate in several threads talking about whether or not Childress would be willing to draft a WR in the first round, and whether or not most rookie WRs can contribute enough to turn our WR corps around.
    And it all tends to center around Calvin Johnson.

    Hoping to put the issue to rest, I though I would long hard look at the teams and show that there isn't any possibility at all of CJ falling to us.
    I even tacked on a Pick CJ Probability factor (which is based solely on my amazing draft analysis skills
    )

    Bottom line, no matter how I play it out, I can't see CJ dropping past the 6th pick.

    1. Oakland - It all hinges on what happens with Porter and Moss.
    Their new coach seems to be taking a step in their direction, using phrases such as "playmakers" and "exciting offense" when talking about the 2007 Raiders.
    Sounds to me like those two may be staying... providing there is a QB change.
    I honestly expect them to take Brady Quinn or JaMarcus Russell with the number 1 pick.
    Quinn is more prepared to step in as an NFL starter IMHO, but either one would be an upgrade over Brooks.
    Pick CJ probability - 0 - 5%

    My Pick: JaMarcus Russell

    2. Detroit - Kitna is not the answer in Detroit, and they don't need to pick another WR in the first round.
    The smart money is on whichever QB Oakland doesn't pick.
    However, the Lions do have Millen calling the shots still, so I can't put anything past them.
    Pick CJ probability - 25%

    My Pick: Brady Quinn

    3. Tampa Bay - Critics of Galloway say he is getting long in the tooth, but the fact is he is still producing, which is more than I can say for their defense these days.
    Rice and White might both be gone from the DL.
    Barber and Kelly are both nearing the end of their career, and to say there is no depth at CB is a huge understatement.
    And I would be shocked if anybody can name a TB safety off the top of their head.
    With great defensive prospects like Alan Branch(DT), Leon Hall(CB), and LaRon Landry(S) out there, I just don't see them drafting a WR.
    Pick CJ probability - 10%

    My Pick: Alan Branch

    4. Cleveland - Now we are getting into the area where teams can start picking the best available player regardless of need, which definately ups the Pick CJ Probability.
    However, Cleveland needs a lot of help with both of its lines.
    They run a 3-4 scheme, but don't have a lot of impact up front, so I think the DL will get first pick.
    Pick CJ probability - 50%.

    My Pick: Gaines Adams

    5. Arizona - I really don't have to go into much explanation here.
    If Joe Thomas is still available, this is the closest thing to a guarantee you will ever see in the draft.
    Oliver Ross is a bust, and Davis is probably going to be gone in free agency. Pick CJ probability - 5%

    My Pick:Joe Thomas


    6. Washington - Needs to be a great pick because they don't pick again until round 5!
    This is bad news for us though.
    Washington is in a great spot to trade for a couple of day 1 picks here.
    Despite their 2005 record, they really don't have any position that stands out as the worst.
    CB, DL, and OL are all hurting for depth, and it seems like Washington could trade down and easily pick up two quality players to fill a couple of these positions.


    Green Bay, Kansas City, Minnesota, New England, San Fran, and to a lesser extent Tennessee are all in the market for a WR.
    Minnesota, San Fran, and NE probably need one the worst.
    We can one up any offer by San Fran, but NE is sitting pretty with two first round picks.
    It is not too likely they would offer both for the #6 spot, but they would be in better shape than we are to offer a first and a second.

    My gut tells me that Washington will trade down.
    Whatever team trades up will be doing so onyl to take CJ, so the Vikes will end up being one spot short of taking home the prize!

    My Pick: Calvin Johnson (New England trades up with Washington)
    :'(

    But the story doesn't end there...

    7. Minnesota - So with its two biggest targets gone (Joe Thomas and Calvin Johnson), where does that leave Minny?
    Our two biggest areas of need are obviously WR and OL.
    Jarrett at WR and Blalock at OG are two pretty impressive targets, but neither one of them is worth the number 7 pick.
    And with Jamaal Anderson, LaRon Landry, Paul Posluszny, and Leon Hall still available, there are a lot of teams in spot 15 or greater that would be salivating at the thought of trading up.
    Dallas in particular needs some kind of ball-hawking free safety who can compliment Roy Williams, and Landry definately fits the bill.
    But with a first round pick of 22, that would put us our of range for both Blalock and Jarrett.
    Carolina, on the other hand, could easily package their first and second to move up for Posluszny, and we would still likely be able to get Blalock with the 14th pick.

    My Pick: Posluszny (Carolina packages 1st and 2nd to move up)






    Vikings take Blalock with the 14th overall pick.

    Of course, keep in mind that this is based on each tam picking solely out of need.
    All it takes is one team to simply take the best player available regardless of need to throw this all down the shoot.

    Feel free to poke holes and complain about what an idiot I am ...... now.
    Good analysis, BUT...

    If we only have to trade up ONE spot to guarantee getting CJ, it is worth breaking policy to do it...it won't cost much to do it anyway....plus if one of the DLinemen is still on the board, the Skins are still gonna want to have a shot at him.
    I say we make the deal, if we are that close AND plan on taking a WR.

    Blalock is projected MUCH higher than #14 in some mocks...he may not be there if we trade down that far.
    I would rather stay at #7 and take Adrian Peterson.

    As much as I like Poz, he is not deserving of that high a pick...now if we DID trade down to #14, I could see us taking him there.

    Just my 2 cents.
    BANNED OR DEAD...I'LL TAKE EITHER ONE

  2. #12
    NodakPaul's Avatar
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    Re: Will Calvin Johnson drop to number 7?

    "cajunvike" wrote:
    Good analysis, BUT...

    If we only have to trade up ONE spot to guarantee getting CJ, it is worth breaking policy to do it...it won't cost much to do it anyway....plus if one of the DLinemen is still on the board, the Skins are still gonna want to have a shot at him.
    I say we make the deal, if we are that close AND plan on taking a WR.


    Blalock is projected MUCH higher than #14 in some mocks...he may not be there if we trade down that far.
    I would rather stay at #7 and take Adrian Peterson.

    As much as I like Poz, he is not deserving of that high a pick...now if we DID trade down to #14, I could see us taking him there.

    Just my 2 cents.
    I wrestled with this idea too.
    Basically what it came down to me is cost.


    Once I ran the numbers it looks like NE could trade both first rounders (and maybe even a late rounder too) for the #6 pick. They would still have a pick in every round of day 1.
    We would have to trade our first and third, which would take away a valuable third round pick.
    With this being such a deep defensive draft (at least in the first round), I think two first rounders would be much more attractive to Washington.

    Who knows though.
    As prophet said, it is all a crap shoot.
    That is what makes draft day so much fun.
    I am going to mock up a Joe Thomas jersey just in case... ;D
    Zeus wrote:
    When are you going to realize that picking out the 20 bad throws this year and ignoring the 300 good ones does not make your point?

    =Z=

  3. #13
    jmmcgorman's Avatar
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    Re: Will Calvin Johnson drop to number 7?

    I agree with prophet.
    Childress seems to be trying to create the next eagles franchise in minnesota. Andy reid would never trade up, he would rather have more picks and rely on his scouting ability.
    Obviously that has worked for the eagles.
    Lets see if Childress has the same eye for talent.
    I hope he does.

  4. #14
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    Re: Will Calvin Johnson drop to number 7?

    sounds good overall and is very well thought out but i don't think posluszny is a top 10 talent. def first round but not top 10.

    How do ya like them apples?!

  5. #15
    Marrdro's Avatar
    Marrdro is offline Beware My Spreadsheet, Bitches!
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    Re: Will Calvin Johnson drop to number 7?

    I like it. ;D
    Makes alot of sense with what we know now today.
    Just a few thoughts/comments to chew on that I am struggling with on my draft. (We do a 2 round draft at work for $$$).

    Thought 1:

    The WR class is pretty deep now that all the underclassmen have come out. I initially had everyone killing themselfs to get CJ or Jarrett now that has changed.


    Should/will a team trade up for CJ or risk picking up a couple in later rounds or as undrafted FA?

    I currently have NE trading up with WASH as you do to get CJ and us trading down after he is gone to get more picks as there just aren't alot of players in the WR/DE/OL area that are worth that high a pick after first ones at thier position are gone.

    Thought 2:

    The FA arena isn't very good for helping us out with all of our holes/depth concerns.

    With that said, I could see us trading down to get more picks to plug holes/add depth in places we need them.


    Thought 3:

    New young coaches being hired lead me to believe that something wierd/stupid will happen (something along the Ditka line) were a team messes everything up for one player.

    Thought 4:

    The combine will bring out a couple of those "work out" "number" guys that will also put a monkey wrench in the works.
    Hope we don't go down a path on a guy that looks good on paper but can't catch the ball
    ;D

    I still need to work out alot of details.
    All is speculation until FA starts and we see were teams are going/spending $$$
    Many many thanks to my talented friend Jos for the new Sig.http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v343/josdin00/Vikings/Marrdro_sig.jpg

  6. #16
    cogitans is offline Jersey Retired
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    Re: Will Calvin Johnson drop to number 7?

    I just had a thought when looking at some mockdrafts.

    Consider the following: If we don't draft a WR in the 1st round is it possible that all of these - who could become good players - will be drafted before we pick in round 2,

    Calvin Johnson, Georgia Tech
    Dwayne Jarrett, USC
    Ted Ginn Jr., Ohio State
    Robert Meachem, Tennessee
    Sidney Rice, South Carolina
    Dwayne Bowe, LSU


    I think it seems like a lot of wideouts early, but it's possible that they could all be gone. If that is the case the next on the list would probably be Anthony Gonzalez, Ohio State

    Thanks to PPE for the sig.

  7. #17
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    Re: Will Calvin Johnson drop to number 7?

    "cogitans" wrote:
    I just had a thought when looking at some mockdrafts.

    Consider the following: If we don't draft a WR in the 1st round is it possible that all of these - who could become good players - will be drafted before we pick in round 2,

    Calvin Johnson, Georgia Tech
    Dwayne Jarrett, USC
    Ted Ginn Jr., Ohio State
    Robert Meachem, Tennessee
    Sidney Rice, South Carolina
    Dwayne Bowe, LSU


    I think it seems like a lot of wideouts early, but it's possible that they could all be gone. If that is the case the next on the list would probably be Anthony Gonzalez, Ohio State
    They way it looks right now all six should go in the first round.
    However, as teams fill holes through FA that will all change.
    There is a decent possibility that at least one of them will be available at the 39th pick.
    Zeus wrote:
    When are you going to realize that picking out the 20 bad throws this year and ignoring the 300 good ones does not make your point?

    =Z=

  8. #18
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    Re: Will Calvin Johnson drop to number 7?

    When you really look at it, it doesn't matter what other teams do, as much as what we do.. If we trade for a proven WR, or pick up one or two in FA, we won't be looking at WR in the 1st rd of the draft anyways..

    If that happens, we either go with OL, or DL.. With Erasmus James coming back next season, I believe they will look seriously at the OL with our #7 pick.. This of course depends on what we do in FA, or trades...

  9. #19
    cogitans is offline Jersey Retired
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    Re: Will Calvin Johnson drop to number 7?

    "VikesfaninWis" wrote:
    When you really look at it, it doesn't matter what other teams do, as much as what we do.. If we trade for a proven WR, or pick up one or two in FA, we won't be looking at WR in the 1st rd of the draft anyways..

    If that happens, we either go with OL, or DL.. With Erasmus James coming back next season, I believe they will look seriously at the OL with our #7 pick.. This of course depends on what we do in FA, or trades...
    I don't think there will be an OL player with value for a #7 pick because I expect Joe Thomas to go before that (most likely to Detroit).

    I think they could pick for bpa. So if they don't want WR in the 1st round they'll try to trade down, or just pick a player with value for a #7 pick.

    How about Adrian Peterson. I would like him along side Taylor.

    Thanks to PPE for the sig.

  10. #20
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    Re: Will Calvin Johnson drop to number 7?

    "NodakPaul" wrote:
    "cajunvike" wrote:
    Good analysis, BUT...

    If we only have to trade up ONE spot to guarantee getting CJ, it is worth breaking policy to do it...it won't cost much to do it anyway....plus if one of the DLinemen is still on the board, the Skins are still gonna want to have a shot at him.
    I say we make the deal, if we are that close AND plan on taking a WR.


    Blalock is projected MUCH higher than #14 in some mocks...he may not be there if we trade down that far.
    I would rather stay at #7 and take Adrian Peterson.

    As much as I like Poz, he is not deserving of that high a pick...now if we DID trade down to #14, I could see us taking him there.

    Just my 2 cents.
    I wrestled with this idea too.
    Basically what it came down to me is cost.


    Once I ran the numbers it looks like NE could trade both first rounders (and maybe even a late rounder too) for the #6 pick. They would still have a pick in every round of day 1.
    We would have to trade our first and third, which would take away a valuable third round pick.
    With this being such a deep defensive draft (at least in the first round), I think two first rounders would be much more attractive to Washington.

    Who knows though.
    As prophet said, it is all a crap shoot.
    That is what makes draft day so much fun.
    I am going to mock up a Joe Thomas jersey just in case... ;D
    BUT WILL the Patsies do it?
    They have steadfastly refused to overpay for WRs...letting several proven WR starters walk instead of paying them when their contracts were up.
    They have consistently taken BPA at the end of Round 1 and have gotten solid contributors with most of those pics.
    They could conceiveably get TWO starters on defense (probably Poz and another LB to re-energize their SLOW LB corps)...and still have a pretty solid offense by going the FA route and getting a proven WR who will start immediately (no guarantees that CJ would start immediately in NE).
    I personally want them to miss on their picks so that they start to decline.
    BANNED OR DEAD...I'LL TAKE EITHER ONE

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