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  1. #1
    NodakPaul's Avatar
    NodakPaul is offline Jersey Retired
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    Will Calvin Johnson drop to number 7?

    I've seen debate in several threads talking about whether or not Childress would be willing to draft a WR in the first round, and whether or not most rookie WRs can contribute enough to turn our WR corps around.
    And it all tends to center around Calvin Johnson.

    Hoping to put the issue to rest, I though I would long hard look at the teams and show that there isn't any possibility at all of CJ falling to us.
    I even tacked on a Pick CJ Probability factor (which is based solely on my amazing draft analysis skills
    )

    Bottom line, no matter how I play it out, I can't see CJ dropping past the 6th pick.

    1. Oakland - It all hinges on what happens with Porter and Moss.
    Their new coach seems to be taking a step in their direction, using phrases such as "playmakers" and "exciting offense" when talking about the 2007 Raiders.
    Sounds to me like those two may be staying... providing there is a QB change.
    I honestly expect them to take Brady Quinn or JaMarcus Russell with the number 1 pick.
    Quinn is more prepared to step in as an NFL starter IMHO, but either one would be an upgrade over Brooks.
    Pick CJ probability - 0 - 5%

    My Pick: JaMarcus Russell

    2. Detroit - Kitna is not the answer in Detroit, and they don't need to pick another WR in the first round.
    The smart money is on whichever QB Oakland doesn't pick.
    However, the Lions do have Millen calling the shots still, so I can't put anything past them.
    Pick CJ probability - 25%

    My Pick: Brady Quinn

    3. Tampa Bay - Critics of Galloway say he is getting long in the tooth, but the fact is he is still producing, which is more than I can say for their defense these days.
    Rice and White might both be gone from the DL.
    Barber and Kelly are both nearing the end of their career, and to say there is no depth at CB is a huge understatement.
    And I would be shocked if anybody can name a TB safety off the top of their head.
    With great defensive prospects like Alan Branch(DT), Leon Hall(CB), and LaRon Landry(S) out there, I just don't see them drafting a WR.
    Pick CJ probability - 10%

    My Pick: Alan Branch

    4. Cleveland - Now we are getting into the area where teams can start picking the best available player regardless of need, which definately ups the Pick CJ Probability.
    However, Cleveland needs a lot of help with both of its lines.
    They run a 3-4 scheme, but don't have a lot of impact up front, so I think the DL will get first pick.
    Pick CJ probability - 50%.

    My Pick: Gaines Adams

    5. Arizona - I really don't have to go into much explanation here.
    If Joe Thomas is still available, this is the closest thing to a guarantee you will ever see in the draft.
    Oliver Ross is a bust, and Davis is probably going to be gone in free agency. Pick CJ probability - 5%

    My Pick:Joe Thomas


    6. Washington - Needs to be a great pick because they don't pick again until round 5!
    This is bad news for us though.
    Washington is in a great spot to trade for a couple of day 1 picks here.
    Despite their 2005 record, they really don't have any position that stands out as the worst.
    CB, DL, and OL are all hurting for depth, and it seems like Washington could trade down and easily pick up two quality players to fill a couple of these positions.


    Green Bay, Kansas City, Minnesota, New England, San Fran, and to a lesser extent Tennessee are all in the market for a WR.
    Minnesota, San Fran, and NE probably need one the worst.
    We can one up any offer by San Fran, but NE is sitting pretty with two first round picks.
    It is not too likely they would offer both for the #6 spot, but they would be in better shape than we are to offer a first and a second.

    My gut tells me that Washington will trade down.
    Whatever team trades up will be doing so onyl to take CJ, so the Vikes will end up being one spot short of taking home the prize!

    My Pick: Calvin Johnson (New England trades up with Washington)
    :'(

    But the story doesn't end there...

    7. Minnesota - So with its two biggest targets gone (Joe Thomas and Calvin Johnson), where does that leave Minny?
    Our two biggest areas of need are obviously WR and OL.
    Jarrett at WR and Blalock at OG are two pretty impressive targets, but neither one of them is worth the number 7 pick.
    And with Jamaal Anderson, LaRon Landry, Paul Posluszny, and Leon Hall still available, there are a lot of teams in spot 15 or greater that would be salivating at the thought of trading up.
    Dallas in particular needs some kind of ball-hawking free safety who can compliment Roy Williams, and Landry definately fits the bill.
    But with a first round pick of 22, that would put us our of range for both Blalock and Jarrett.
    Carolina, on the other hand, could easily package their first and second to move up for Posluszny, and we would still likely be able to get Blalock with the 14th pick.

    My Pick: Posluszny (Carolina packages 1st and 2nd to move up)






    Vikings take Blalock with the 14th overall pick.

    Of course, keep in mind that this is based on each tam picking solely out of need.
    All it takes is one team to simply take the best player available regardless of need to throw this all down the shoot.

    Feel free to poke holes and complain about what an idiot I am ...... now.
    Zeus wrote:
    When are you going to realize that picking out the 20 bad throws this year and ignoring the 300 good ones does not make your point?

    =Z=

  2. #2
    vike_mike's Avatar
    vike_mike is offline Pro-Bowler
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    Re: Will Calvin Johnson drop to number 7?

    He most definitely not drop to #7.
    He will go 4th pick at the latest.
    This is why we need to attempt to trade up, or stay at 7th and pick Rice.
    We do not need to pick Jamaal Anderson with the 7th pick.
    Everyone knows that this will not happen.
    Our first need is WR.
    Not DE.

  3. #3
    Prophet's Avatar
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    Re: Will Calvin Johnson drop to number 7?

    There won't be any trades up, there may be trades down though.
    Bank on that.
    Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please. Mark Twain

  4. #4
    Big C is offline Coordinator
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    Re: Will Calvin Johnson drop to number 7?

    Johnson will be gone because we need him. Sucks but true. I don't want another DE. Udeze and James were both 1st round picks that haven't quite panned out.
    Halo 4. Start another fight.

  5. #5
    vike_mike's Avatar
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    Re: Will Calvin Johnson drop to number 7?

    "Prophet" wrote:
    There won't be any trades up, there may be trades down though.
    Bank on that.
    How do you know that?
    So you know that we are going to definitely trade down and not up.
    Where did you get your information?
    Please let me know.

  6. #6
    Prophet's Avatar
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    Re: Will Calvin Johnson drop to number 7?

    "vike_mike" wrote:
    "Prophet" wrote:
    There won't be any trades up, there may be trades down though.
    Bank on that.
    How do you know that?
    So you know that we are going to definitely trade down and not up.
    Where did you get your information?
    Please let me know.
    I am a prophet.
    Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please. Mark Twain

  7. #7
    Mr. Purple's Avatar
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    Re: Will Calvin Johnson drop to number 7?

    Listen to him he can see the future.




    I also dont think we'll trade down, we'll trade up if anything.The cost of moving up for CJ is to much, I dont think any player is worth throwing in the bank at in the Draft.Plently of quality players available at 7.


    However I strongly beleive that the chance of CJ falling to 7 is at about 20-30 %.The draft is very unpredictable.Teams make moves that leave they're fans scratching thier heads.

    Theres NOTHING greater then a Florida Gator!
    "I promise everyone this. When Childress is let go in two years I can honestly say this.
    "I am not surprised"."-PurplePackerEater

  8. #8
    Zeus's Avatar
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    Re: Will Calvin Johnson drop to number 7?

    "Prophet" wrote:
    There won't be any trades up, there may be trades down though.
    Bank on that.
    By the Vikings?

    Because, in general, to trade down, someone else must trade up.

    =Z=
    It's a Yin-Yang thing.

    Thanks to Josdin for the awesome sig!

  9. #9
    Prophet's Avatar
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    Re: Will Calvin Johnson drop to number 7?

    I was trying to find the artice and was unsuccessful.
    There was an article I read a while back where Childress was saying he didn't believe in trading up.
    Take it as a rumor because i can't find the support.

    Personally, I go with the draft being a crap shoot anyway.
    There are plenty of examples of people going late in the draft that are successful in the NFL and people goiing early in the draft that are unsuccessful in the NFL.
    The more options you have on your roster before the 53-man deadline the better off you are.
    Trading down seems to make more sense in most cases than trading up when you are sitting at the top of the draft pecking order.
    Get more bang for your buck and increase the probability of finding a good pick.
    The Moss crotch-sniffers should understand this philiosophy.
    Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please. Mark Twain

  10. #10
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    Re: Will Calvin Johnson drop to number 7?

    "Zeus" wrote:
    "Prophet" wrote:
    There won't be any trades up, there may be trades down though.
    Bank on that.
    By the Vikings?

    Because, in general, to trade down, someone else must trade up.

    =Z=
    It's a Yin-Yang thing.
    As ConZEUScious say!
    LOL
    BANNED OR DEAD...I'LL TAKE EITHER ONE

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