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  1. #71
    cka2nd's Avatar
    cka2nd is offline Waterboy
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    Dec 1969

    Re: Why we shouldn't draft a QB in the 1st...

    Thank you, ultravikingfan, for the kind words and the welcome.

    And thank you, Jeremy, for the fascinating analysis of Culpepper's career stats. Very interesting. I'm still not sure that he'll ever win the big one, even with a solid team around him on both offense and defense, but you certainly made a convincing case for his "Elite QB" status. And bravo for taking some of the air out of the "Myth of the Game Manager."

    On the other hand, I once read somewhere that the Vikings have been one of the most profitable teams in the NFL going at least all the way back to the early 70s (one of the reasons the players hated penny-pinching GM Mike Lynn so much). Minnesota is not like LA, Houston, New Orleans (pre-Katrina) or Arizona, areas that have had trouble maintaining fan support for their teams, even when they've been winning. Wilf and Co. may want to soak you folks for more money - I'm a long-distance fan - but know that the Vikings have a solid and large diehard fan base, similar to the Browns, Giants, Redskins, Bears and, yes, Packers. Putting fannies in the seats is not the problem, so I wouldn't base my draft selections on that consideration.

    Bottom Line: I'd package all five of our picks in the first three rounds to get Leinart, and throw in Kleinsasser (clearly not a fit for Childress' system, especially with Tony Richardson on the roster) if I had to, or package our #1 with a 2 and 3 to get Hawk. I might move up for Cutler or Young, but only for a 1 and 2.

  2. #72
    Join Date
    Dec 1969

    Re: Why we shouldn't draft a QB in the 1st...

    i would like to see us draft a good linebacker in the 1st round. then draft Clemens, Whitehurst, or Croyle in the 2nd or 3rd round. I'd also like to see us draft a RB, OL, CB/S, and another LB. Having said I'd like to see us draft a LB in the first....that would be good, but I don't think we should reach for a player. Deangelo Williams wouldn't be a bad pick there either. Then take a LB and QB in the 2nd.
    "We are Lions!!" - Achilles (from the movie Troy )

  3. #73
    iluvbigtds is offline Rookie
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    Dec 1969

    Re: Why we shouldn't draft a QB in the 1st...

    Wow, I didn't even know this thread was still around. Well, anyways, to clear up the minutiae...

    "Del Rio" wrote:
    Did you just say Ben Rottenburger was a light hitter? The Ben that just won the superbowl?


    Yep. I said it. Take a look at this stat line.

    B. Roethlisberger 9/21 123 0 2

    No, that wasn't a regular season game and nor was it a loss. It was the statline of the SUPER BOWL WINNING quarterback. I'd say, if anything, Pittsburgh won despite Big Ben. If I saw a stat line like that from Brady, Marino, Favre, etc., I'd be almost positive they lost the game. Its also never crossed my mind that Pittsburgh's game plan has ever involved handing him the ball and saying 'alright, we're gonna run a lot of 4 WR sets to put the ball in the hands of our strongest asset'. Actually it's more like, 'turn around, hand the ball off. We'll run a play action every once in a while. Oh yeah, don't screw up'. Ben normally does a good job of not losing a game, which is all he has to do with a power running game, great line, and stout defense, but he certainly doesn't win them games a la Favre or Marino.

    "whackthepack" wrote:
    I guess I am lost on the meaning of the this post. Is he trying to say that linebackers from the 1st round have a better track record?

    If that is his point he pretty much failed!

    2005 LBs

    Lofa Tatupu, Odell Thurman taken in the 2nd round had just as good or better seasons as anyone taken in the 1st round
    Of course they had great seasons. But those are statistical anomalies compared to the other years. That's why I went back 5 years, so I could get a more accurate assessment. I could have went back farther, but I have better things to do than create an entire longitudinal study for something like this.

    "Jeremy" wrote:
    I see 3 Pro Bowl QB's taken in the first round and one in the second and none in the third. Your odds of getting a quality player drop every round you wait to draft a QB or any position for that matter.

    You seem to think we'd be better of drafting a QB with a 1 in 10 chance of being a pro bowl QB. I like the 1 in 5 chance better. You really shouldn't count the 2005 guys. Rarely does a QB preform well in his first year. It's more like 1 in 4 for Pro Bowl players. Rivers hasn't even played and if Brees didn't get hurt the Vikings would probally be working out a deal for him right now.

    Comparing QB's to linebackers is like comparing apples to oranges. There's 32 starting QB's in the NFL and about 110-120 starting linebackers. I don't feel like looking up haw many teams use a 3-4 vs. the 4-3 to get the exact number.

    Gee, at what position is ther going to be more "stud" players? I wonder.........Let me ponder this for a moment......Could it be linebacker? I'd hope so, there is more than 3 times as many of them.
    First off, its true, you can't judge QBs in the first year. That was a mistake.

    Secondly, there's only 2 pro bowl QBs selected in the 1st round and both were #1 overall picks.

    Moving on, I'll readily concede you can't directly compare LBs to QBs. Any comparison between 'apples and oranges' is inherently flawed. I merely presented the numbers that stud LBs seem to be coming out in greater numbers than stud QBs. Not scientific, by any means, but certainly not lacking in validity. How I try to add some legitimacy is by comparing the 2nd and 3rd rounders to 1st rounders for each group. I left out first overall picks for my own personal reasons. I just feel that there's the occasional 'can't miss' prospect that is the consensus #1, like Vick, Palmer, Manning and Carr. These players just fall into teams' laps. I just don't feel like we're drafting this year under the same context. Realistically, other teams are going to pass over these guys for us to get one. Also, #1 picks get paid like NFL MVPs, which separates them, in my mind, from the start.

    If you look at 1st round QBs not drafted #1 overall in the past 5 years, only 2 of those guys have a starting job because of their play (Leftwich, Roethlisberger, and both are overrated) and Rivers got it handed to him because of his salary.

    1st rounders- Harrington, Leftwich, Rivers, Ramsey, Boller, Grossman, Roethlisberger, Losman, Rogers and Campbell

    If we're just designating pro bowls as the means of deciding 'good' or 'bad', I think it would be fair to note that there hasn't been a Pro Bowl QB drafted in the past 5 first rounds that wasn't a #1 overall.

    All things aside, I would concede that a QB in the 1st would be more predisposed to being a solid player than a 2nd or 3rd because they're probably more skilled, but the stats seem to show that its more than of a wash than you think. And when you weigh that next to the inflated odds of us getting our stud LB in the first, compared to waiting until the 2nd or 3rd like we've done waaaayyy too much the past few years, I just think it makes so much sense to just take that slightly greater chance for a good QB for a much greater chance of getting our first stud LB since Eddie McDaniel.

  4. #74
    Jeremy's Avatar
    Jeremy is offline Starter
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    Dec 1969

    Re: Why we shouldn't draft a QB in the 1st...

    "thanatoschristou" wrote:
    It would make more sense to draft a LB. Defensive players are a safer bet than QBs. Plus, you need to pay a QB a butt load compared to a line backer. We have the money but keep it freed up if we want to trade.
    Rookie pay is based on draft postion, not position played on the feild.

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