Thread: The Quarterback Quandary

"seaniemck7" wrote:

First of all... fucking great post.
I second Schutz' sentiments on your writing.

However, one of the ugly realities will be dollars and cents of what it means to be a first round draft pick. Please take a look at the following contracts:

Here are the last 2 years #17 picks.

17 Jarvis Moss
DE Florida Denver Broncos
7/28/2007: Signed a five-year, $15 million contract. The deal includes $8 million in guarantees. Another $3 million is available through incentives. 2008: $370,000, 2009: $660,000, 2010: $750,000, 2011: $850,000, 2012: Free Agent

17 Chad Greenway
LB Iowa Minnesota Vikings

7/27/2006: Signed a five-year, $10.75 million contract. The deal includes $6.145 million in guarantees. Another $2.5 million is available through incentives. 2008: $675,000, 2009: $1 million, 2010: $1.295 million, 2011: Free Agent

Take a look at the jump in contractual guaranteed dollars... $2M for one year... impressive huh?
(Schutz, still like the rookie pay scale? )

Now lets take a look at Brady's contract being drafted after Jarvis Moss with the bump that QBs usally get with his modest contract.

22 Brady Quinn
8/7/2007: Signed a five-year, $9.25 million contract. The deal includes $7.75 million in guarantees. Another $11 million is available though escalators in 2010 and 2011 based on Quinn taking at least 55% of the snaps in each of the first two years or at least 70% in his third season. Another $9.8 million is available, but is unlikely to be earned. 2008: $370,000 (+ $4.3 million roster bonus due in March), 2009: $655,000, 2010-2011: $700,000, 2011: Free Agent

Now if you eyeball the kind of jump the Salary Cap took again this year and apply that to Quinn's GUARANTEED money, its significant.

Further this with the comparison to TJ's contract.

Tarvaris Jackson
7/26/2006: Signed a four-year, $2.9 million contract. The deal included a $1.1 million signing bonus. 2008: $445,000, 2009: $530,000, 2010: Free Agent

I am not saying that your proposal is rendered invalid due to the discrepansies in pay scale, but its the kind of 500lb Gorrilla in the room that no one wants to talk about.
You do address the whats, what with the media and fans vs. the team knowing who the guy should be.
But if TJ struggles one iota EVERYONE will be calling for his head if we have Brohm on the bench.

Just some food for thought.

Well said sir, thats just the thing, having a 1st round draft pick on the bench has to be more pressure on him as well.
It kinda says "hey kid, we'll let you start for now... but mess up and your shots over"

"Vikes_King" wrote:

"seaniemck7" wrote:

First of all... fricken great post.
I second Schutz' sentiments on your writing.

However, one of the ugly realities will be dollars and cents of what it means to be a first round draft pick. Please take a look at the following contracts:

Here are the last 2 years #17 picks.

17 Jarvis Moss
DE Florida Denver Broncos
7/28/2007: Signed a five-year, $15 million contract. The deal includes $8 million in guarantees. Another $3 million is available through incentives. 2008: $370,000, 2009: $660,000, 2010: $750,000, 2011: $850,000, 2012: Free Agent

17 Chad Greenway
LB Iowa Minnesota Vikings

7/27/2006: Signed a five-year, $10.75 million contract. The deal includes $6.145 million in guarantees. Another $2.5 million is available through incentives. 2008: $675,000, 2009: $1 million, 2010: $1.295 million, 2011: Free Agent

Take a look at the jump in contractual guaranteed dollars... $2M for one year... impressive huh?
(Schutz, still like the rookie pay scale? )

Now lets take a look at Brady's contract being drafted after Jarvis Moss with the bump that QBs usally get with his modest contract.

22 Brady Quinn
8/7/2007: Signed a five-year, $9.25 million contract. The deal includes $7.75 million in guarantees. Another $11 million is available though escalators in 2010 and 2011 based on Quinn taking at least 55% of the snaps in each of the first two years or at least 70% in his third season. Another $9.8 million is available, but is unlikely to be earned. 2008: $370,000 (+ $4.3 million roster bonus due in March), 2009: $655,000, 2010-2011: $700,000, 2011: Free Agent

Now if you eyeball the kind of jump the Salary Cap took again this year and apply that to Quinn's GUARANTEED money, its significant.

Further this with the comparison to TJ's contract.

Tarvaris Jackson
7/26/2006: Signed a four-year, $2.9 million contract. The deal included a $1.1 million signing bonus. 2008: $445,000, 2009: $530,000, 2010: Free Agent

I am not saying that your proposal is rendered invalid due to the discrepansies in pay scale, but its the kind of 500lb Gorrilla in the room that no one wants to talk about.
You do address the whats, what with the media and fans vs. the team knowing who the guy should be.

But if TJ struggles one iota EVERYONE will be calling for his head if we have Brohm on the bench.

Just some food for thought.

Well said sir, thats just the thing, having a 1st round draft pick on the bench has to be more pressure on him as well.
It kinda says "hey kid, we'll let you start for now... but mess up and your shots over"

BTW iI believe that is how TJ got his first 2 starts under his belt.
The worst part about it is, he was only a 2nd round pick and look at the pressure that was on Chilly to subplant BJohnson.

An expensive insurance policy that is not totally guaranteed to pay off if TJ fails...but one that would be considered a bargain if Brohm has to step in or wins the job outright and blossoms into a top-notch QB.
Either way, the FO would be recognizing that without a top-flight QB, the Vikings can't win a Super Bowl, almost a foregone conclusion.
The BIG IF is "Can the Vikings front office make the right choice at QB?"
If they don't, it sets the Vikings back again if TJ doesn't blossom.
In the end, it is still a gamble.
The biggest drawback is if TJ steps up this year...he does so without an extra weapon on offense due to the drafting of Brohm instead of an OT or WR that could offer more options on offense.
The gamble might be worth it though, if Brohm is an ELITE QB at the NFL level...otherwise, the Vikes should just look at the next best player.

This is a well thought out post but IMO quite pointless if you understand Childress and the way he operates. Childress has came out and said that he prefers to draft a underated QB in later rounds then devoloping him into something and this is exactly what he has done so far. I believe we will draft a QB this year, I don't believe it will be a QB any of us are discussing. Childress likes to think he can find the gems that nobody else has found. Thigpen was somewhat of an example here.

I think you hit the nail right on the head when you discussed possible QB controversy if we did draft a QB so high. Since Childress drafted Tarvaris and started playing him he hasn't threatened him with serious competition for the starting position, which a first round pick would be. In noway do I see this happening anytime soon. I believe much like Childress there are future NFL QB's later in the draft. Even next year when there isn't supposed to be.

Personally I have far more of concern at the LT position because Bryant McKinnie is likely on his way out. I would like to see us draft a top tier offensive lineman or defensive lineman with the first round pick. Childress also has a solid believe in taking care of the trenches.

I also believe Brohm is completely distant from the plans, while I think he could be a good QB who has had good production we are looking for "Moble" QB's. Brohm also has a past history with injuries and he may very well slip to 17 where we won't take him.

Anything could happen though and we are expecting something surprising on draft day.

good post and all, but what is failed to be mentioned is that brohms stock is dropping and he is being mentioned as an early 2nd round pick or a team in the 2nd round trading up into the end of the 1st round to grab him.
granted there are plenty of differenting opinions but as of right now he doesn't seem like he would be the bpa available at 17.


also i dont like the idea of any high draft pick as a backup plan or future trade bait.
you mention matt schaub but he was not a first round pick, i believe he was a 4th rounder.
quinn was drafted to be their starting qb but anderson threw a wrench in that.
theres very little precedent for what you are talking about cuz when you draft a qb in the 1st round he is your future.
jason cambell wasn't the backup plan, he was going to be their future, aaron rogers was not a backup plan or trade bait, he was the future.
the vikings have pressing needs at other positions that need to be addressed so to draft a guy who is going to not even be active the whole year barring injuries in the first round is a bigger risk than passing on him and jackson fails.


like i said earlier it's probably moot cuz as of what ive seen lately brohm may not be the bpa at 17, but if the vikes dont like what they may have coming to them the can try to make a short move up to get the guy they want, or trade down and stockpile picks.
to me this is a more prudent move than drafting a guy for a just in case scenario.
we are on the verge of making the playoffs so if we wanna help jackson succeed either sure up the o-line, or get somebody who can pull the defense outta the last ranking.
brohm won't help us this year, and it probably would just muddle the qb situation, so i'm just not down for that.

"ragz" wrote:

good post and all, but what is failed to be mentioned is that brohms stock is dropping and he is being mentioned as an early 2nd round pick or a team in the 2nd round trading up into the end of the 1st round to grab him.
granted there are plenty of differenting opinions but as of right now he doesn't seem like he would be the bpa available at 17.


also i dont like the idea of any high draft pick as a backup plan or future trade bait.
you mention matt schaub but he was not a first round pick, i believe he was a 4th rounder.
quinn was drafted to be their starting qb but anderson threw a wrench in that.
theres very little precedent for what you are talking about cuz when you draft a qb in the 1st round he is your future.
jason cambell wasn't the backup plan, he was going to be their future, aaron rogers was not a backup plan or trade bait, he was the future.
the vikings have pressing needs at other positions that need to be addressed so to draft a guy who is going to not even be active the whole year barring injuries in the first round is a bigger risk than passing on him and jackson fails.


like i said earlier it's probably moot cuz as of what ive seen lately brohm may not be the bpa at 17, but if the vikes dont like what they may have coming to them the can try to make a short move up to get the guy they want, or trade down and stockpile picks.
to me this is a more prudent move than drafting a guy for a just in case scenario.
we are on the verge of making the playoffs so if we wanna help jackson succeed either sure up the o-line, or get somebody who can pull the defense outta the last ranking.
brohm won't help us this year, and it probably would just muddle the qb situation, so i'm just not down for that.

Good post ragz.

Those who seem to want to draft Brohm have no confidence in Tarvaris future because like you said a pick this high indicates a future QB. I beleive our orginization has far more confidence in TJack than our fan base, erasing the thoughts of an early round QB.

Basically ... if we were to draft a QB in the first round and TJ ends up doing well, we put ourselves in the same situation that the Browns were in this year. NOT a bad situation to be in!

"VikingsTw" wrote:

"ragz" wrote:

good post and all, but what is failed to be mentioned is that brohms stock is dropping and he is being mentioned as an early 2nd round pick or a team in the 2nd round trading up into the end of the 1st round to grab him.
granted there are plenty of differenting opinions but as of right now he doesn't seem like he would be the bpa available at 17.


also i dont like the idea of any high draft pick as a backup plan or future trade bait.
you mention matt schaub but he was not a first round pick, i believe he was a 4th rounder.
quinn was drafted to be their starting qb but anderson threw a wrench in that.
theres very little precedent for what you are talking about cuz when you draft a qb in the 1st round he is your future.
jason cambell wasn't the backup plan, he was going to be their future, aaron rogers was not a backup plan or trade bait, he was the future.
the vikings have pressing needs at other positions that need to be addressed so to draft a guy who is going to not even be active the whole year barring injuries in the first round is a bigger risk than passing on him and jackson fails.


like i said earlier it's probably moot cuz as of what ive seen lately brohm may not be the bpa at 17, but if the vikes dont like what they may have coming to them the can try to make a short move up to get the guy they want, or trade down and stockpile picks.
to me this is a more prudent move than drafting a guy for a just in case scenario.
we are on the verge of making the playoffs so if we wanna help jackson succeed either sure up the o-line, or get somebody who can pull the defense outta the last ranking.
brohm won't help us this year, and it probably would just muddle the qb situation, so i'm just not down for that.

Good post ragz.

Those who seem to want to draft Brohm have no confidence in Tarvaris future because like you said a pick this high indicates a future QB. I beleive our orginization has far more confidence in TJack than our fan base.

i still believe, and i'm not lumping anyone in particular into this, but the viking fans that have been in a constant state of replacing jackson is all exterior stuff.
he played at a small school, he was a late 2nd rounder that some believed was a reach, so basically just perception.
if he woulda went to michegan, or been drafted in the 1st round like a david carr or joey harrington was, those fans would be more patient and say the things that i say about jackson.
but becuz of there perception of him from the outset they are constantly replacing him.
last year he was being replaced by brady quinn and he had a whole 2 games under his belt.
now 14 games into this career they have brohm replacing him.
he's young, he's gonna make some bad throws or decisions.
but if we look at his play in the 2nd half of the year he was making better decisions, running when it presented it self, keeping his eyes downfield almost to a fault to keep plays alive, and creating a more efficient passing game.
we went 8-4 with him and hopefully we just keep building on that.

my feeling is he's our qb, of now and the future.
when teams draft a number one pick as their qb they dont go drafting another one after his rookie season was mixed.
for better or worse he's the guy and either proves himself or ends up a bust.
i dont see why jackson isn't the same deal.
they've added rice, berrian, wade, shiancoe, peterson, taylor and whatever else.
this offense was almost a total overhaul from where it was 3 years ago, including jackson.
i think he can do it, but i've been wrong plenty.
but i think we should give up on the idea that every year our first round pick is gonna be a qb.

"stateVIKE44" wrote:

Basically ... if we were to draft a QB in the first round and TJ ends up doing well, we put ourselves in the same situation that the Browns were in this year. NOT a bad situation to be in!

except it was by accident and chances are they would never have traded a number one and then used a number one if they knew derek anderson was gonna be the guy.
if you think about it, quinn cost them 2 1st rounders.
the one they used on him, and the one they gave up this year to move up in the 1st round last year.
that's an awfully high price for a backup qb, or as some say future trade bait.

"stateVIKE44" wrote:

Basically ... if we were to draft a QB in the first round and TJ ends up doing well, we put ourselves in the same situation that the Browns were in this year. NOT a bad situation to be in!

False. Quinn was drafted at 22.
Joe Thomas as drafted at #3.
If we got the 3rd pick in the draft AND got to draft a QB at 17, THAT is not in a bad position.