Thread: The Quarterback Quandary

Before I begin, let me say that I am a strong Jackson supporter, I firmly believe he is on the right track to be a great quarterback in this league. However, I will acknowledge that there is also an equally good chance that he will not turn to to be our franchise quarterback, and I think it would be wise to be prepared for the worst.

Also, I am in no way saying that I feel the Vikings should draft a quarterback in the first round if players like Derrick Harvey, Chris Williams, etc. are still on the board; I am merely considering the situation where a quarterback is the best remaining player.

At this point in time, it is impossible to tell whether or not Jackson will be able to step up and become a solid quarterback, and with next year's class of FAs and rookies looking to be virtually devoid of any talent at the quarterback position, it would be wise to have a back up plan should Jackson struggle. However, the biggest distinction that must be made should the Vikings draft a quarterback early in the draft is that it does not mean that the FO and coaching staff has given up on Jackson; the only thing that drafting a quarterback does is give the Vikings more options, as I will demonstrate below.

Sitting at #17, there is a very real possibility that Brian Brohm will be the best player available when the time comes for the Vikings to make their pick. At first glance, this might seem like a problem, since the Vikings already have a young, up and coming quarterback who is still too early in his progression to give up on, but there is more to the story. If the Vikings go ahead and take Brohm as the BPA at #17, it would leave the Vikings with many possible outcomes at the quarterback situation, most of which would be possible. Because both Jackson and Brohm could either turn out to be great franchise quarterback or complete busts, its important to consider all scenarios.

There are generally 3 tiers of starting quarterbacks in the NFL:
[1] The top-tier, franchise guys (Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, etc.)
[2] The good quarterbacks, but not elite (Jon Kitna, Jake Delhomme, Jeff Garcia)
[3] The mediocre quarterbacks who are questionable at best (Rex Grossman, Joey Harrington, Kyle Boller)

Because both Jackson and Brohm could end up falling into any 3 of these categories, we must consider every scenario depending on how both Jackson and Brohm progress. Obviously, if either Brohm or Jackson steps up and turns into a franchise caliber quarterback, the other could be used as excellent trade bait, similar to how the Falcons traded Matt Schaub. And with two quarterbacks on the roster, the only real way we would be left without a suitable quarterback within the next few years would be if Jackson and Brohm both turn to to be nothing more than mediocre busts.

If you consider the three possible tiers of quarterback play for both Jackson and Brohm, its very easy to construct a 3 dimensional, situational outcome matrix to describe the Vikings' options depending on the progression of both quarterbacks:

Code:

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Brohm [1]
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Brohm [2]
 
 
 
 
 
Brohm [3]

Jackson [1]
 
 
 
 
 Trade Either
 
 
 
 
 
Trade Brohm
 
 
 
 
Brohm Backup


Jackson [2]
 
 
 
 
 Trade Jackson
 
 
 
 
 
 Compete
 
 
 
 
 
Brohm Backup


Jackson [3]
 
 
 
 
Jackson Backup
 
 
 
 
Jackson Backup
 
 
 
 Both Bust

As you can see, out of the nine total scenarios, the only one where the Vikings are left without a solid quarterback is if both Jackson and Brohm are busts. By drafting another good quarterback, we are also doubling the odds of having a franchise caliber quarterback on the roster. Between Jackson and Brohm, we would not only have a true competition for the number one spot, but also great depth.

Also, because we are picking at #17 (in the second half of the first round) the maximum contract for our first round draft pick is reduced from 6 to 5 years, making it a noticeably cheaper contract. The FO could also structure Brohm's contract similar to Brady Quinn's, where it is a very small base contract, with the bulk of the money coming in escalators dependent on playing time; that way if Brohm remains a backup for a few years, it is not a burden to the team financially. This would reduce the notion that Brohm would be 'entitled' to be the starter just because he was a first round draft pick.

The only potential downside to drafting a quarterback in the first round would be that the casual fans and the media might see it as a quarterback controversy. However, anyone that takes the time to look at the bigger picture can see that Jackson needs one more year to prove himself, and Brohm would benefit from spending at least a year learning from the side lines. While having two potential starting quarterbacks on the roster may at first seem like a controversy, in reality it is merely more competition. It doesn't matter what the media says about it; the coaches and the guys on the field know who their guy is.

When its all said and done, the quarterback is by far the most important position on the football field. With a solid defense and a great ground game, having a good starting quarterback and good depth behind him would be the last piece of the puzzle to make the Vikings legitimate Superbowl contenders. Having another option to pair with Jackson would give the Vikings a great shot at having both those things.

This should be stickied.

"V" wrote:

This should be stickied.

haha, it is that good.. too well thought out for most of the people on here
;D

wow, i have always been against taking a qb in the 1st round, but after reading this, i actually wouldnt mind it. BUT only if he is the BPA, and Harvey and top notch OTs are off the board.

"Vikes_King" wrote:

"V" wrote:

This should be stickied.

haha, it is that good.. too well thought out for most of the people on here
;D

Not only well written, but, the chart is just icing on the cake.

I don't think we can go wrong this draft. There are that many talented players. We would totally have to screw up to get it wrong this year. Taking Brohm is a huge plus for us. I know people support TJ and I would like to as well but I just haven't seen enough to show me he is going to blossom. I have seen too much showing he's not the 1. Time will tell. I just want a great QB. I don't care if it's the slasher Jackson or the pocket magician Brohm.

And suddenly I have more respect for your writing than 90% of most "professional" sports writers.

Put this in power point and you could sell it.
;D

That's funny, I remember being told how dumb I was when I proposed this a couple weeks ago.
Guess I should have made an outcome matrix. :P

First of all... fricken great post.
I second Schutz' sentiments on your writing.

However, one of the ugly realities will be dollars and cents of what it means to be a first round draft pick. Please take a look at the following contracts:

Here are the last 2 years #17 picks.

17 Jarvis Moss
DE Florida Denver Broncos
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/pla...rt=NFL&id=4162
7/28/2007: Signed a five-year, $15 million contract. The deal includes $8 million in guarantees. Another $3 million is available through incentives. 2008: $370,000, 2009: $660,000, 2010: $750,000, 2011: $850,000, 2012: Free Agent

17 Chad Greenway
LB Iowa Minnesota Vikings
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_contract.aspx?sport=NFL&id=3618
7/27/2006: Signed a five-year, $10.75 million contract. The deal includes $6.145 million in guarantees. Another $2.5 million is available through incentives. 2008: $675,000, 2009: $1 million, 2010: $1.295 million, 2011: Free Agent

Take a look at the jump in contractual guaranteed dollars... $2M for one year... impressive huh?
(Schutz, still like the rookie pay scale? )

Now lets take a look at Brady's contract being drafted after Jarvis Moss with the bump that QBs usally get with his modest contract.

22 Brady Quinn
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/pla...rt=NFL&id=4149
8/7/2007: Signed a five-year, $9.25 million contract. The deal includes $7.75 million in guarantees. Another $11 million is available though escalators in 2010 and 2011 based on Quinn taking at least 55% of the snaps in each of the first two years or at least 70% in his third season. Another $9.8 million is available, but is unlikely to be earned. 2008: $370,000 (+ $4.3 million roster bonus due in March), 2009: $655,000, 2010-2011: $700,000, 2011: Free Agent

Now if you eyeball the kind of jump the Salary Cap took again this year and apply that to Quinn's GUARANTEED money, its significant.

Further this with the comparison to TJ's contract.

Tarvaris Jackson
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/pla...rt=NFL&id=3708
7/26/2006: Signed a four-year, $2.9 million contract. The deal included a $1.1 million signing bonus. 2008: $445,000, 2009: $530,000, 2010: Free Agent

I am not saying that your proposal is rendered invalid due to the discrepansies in pay scale, but its the kind of 500lb Gorrilla in the room that no one wants to talk about.
You do address the whats, what with the media and fans vs. the team knowing who the guy should be.

But if TJ struggles one iota EVERYONE will be calling for his head if we have Brohm on the bench.

Just some food for thought.

edit: I added the RotoWorld links to the contract information.

"seaniemck7" wrote:

First of all... fricken great post.
I second Schutz' sentiments on your writing.

However, one of the ugly realities will be dollars and cents of what it means to be a first round draft pick. Please take a look at the following contracts:

Here are the last 2 years #17 picks.

17 Jarvis Moss
DE Florida Denver Broncos
7/28/2007: Signed a five-year, $15 million contract. The deal includes $8 million in guarantees. Another $3 million is available through incentives. 2008: $370,000, 2009: $660,000, 2010: $750,000, 2011: $850,000, 2012: Free Agent

17 Chad Greenway
LB Iowa Minnesota Vikings

7/27/2006: Signed a five-year, $10.75 million contract. The deal includes $6.145 million in guarantees. Another $2.5 million is available through incentives. 2008: $675,000, 2009: $1 million, 2010: $1.295 million, 2011: Free Agent

Take a look at the jump in contractual guaranteed dollars... $2M for one year... impressive huh?
(Schutz, still like the rookie pay scale? )

Now lets take a look at Brady's contract being drafted after Jarvis Moss with the bump that QBs usally get with his modest contract.

22 Brady Quinn
8/7/2007: Signed a five-year, $9.25 million contract. The deal includes $7.75 million in guarantees. Another $11 million is available though escalators in 2010 and 2011 based on Quinn taking at least 55% of the snaps in each of the first two years or at least 70% in his third season. Another $9.8 million is available, but is unlikely to be earned. 2008: $370,000 (+ $4.3 million roster bonus due in March), 2009: $655,000, 2010-2011: $700,000, 2011: Free Agent

Now if you eyeball the kind of jump the Salary Cap took again this year and apply that to Quinn's GUARANTEED money, its significant.

Further this with the comparison to TJ's contract.

Tarvaris Jackson
7/26/2006: Signed a four-year, $2.9 million contract. The deal included a $1.1 million signing bonus. 2008: $445,000, 2009: $530,000, 2010: Free Agent

I am not saying that your proposal is rendered invalid due to the discrepansies in pay scale, but its the kind of 500lb Gorrilla in the room that no one wants to talk about.
You do address the whats, what with the media and fans vs. the team knowing who the guy should be.
But if TJ struggles one iota EVERYONE will be calling for his head if we have Brohm on the bench.

Just some food for thought.

I disagree that this is a deal breaker.
You actually mentioned the player I would have used in Quinn.
Derek Anderson has a big money QB behind him yet he still comes through and busts some skulls.
I don't think money should be a deal breaker here.