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  1. #11
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    Pre-Draft Rankings.. Reliable or BS?

    Quote Originally Posted by "i_bleed_purple" #1090929
    Quote Originally Posted by "jmcdon00" #1090927
    Interesting idea for a thread. Who's pre-draft ranking did you use?

    I would be more interested to know how close pre-draft rankings predict who will be drafted where(that's what I thought when i read the title).

    BTW, Reggie Bush was not a bust. Maybe didn't live up to the hype but he's been a productive player all 5 years in the league, and helped his team win a superbowl.
    Very debatable. Again, as a guy who was supposed to be the greatest thing to happen to the NFL, that people actually thought rules should be bent just to accomodate him, he's been a below average runningback, and a good punt returner. Good punt returners can be had much later on in the draft. Josh Cribbs, Devin Hester, etc. all were not #2 overall picks, but are just as good, if not better. I'd even say Hester is a better receiver than Bush is a runningback.
    He's not an everydown back, but he is a difference maker for that offense. Many in the media have pointed out that teams have to gameplan for bush which makes the rest of the offense more effective.

    Compare his numbers to percy harvins(very similar players IMHO). In Reggies first two years he had more offensive yards and more offensive TD's than Percy in his first 2 years. Would you consider Percy a bust also?
    Also Bush has done well in the playoffs, scoring 4td's in 6 games.

  2. #12
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    Pre-Draft Rankings.. Reliable or BS?

    Comparing WR to RB.

    The best RB in the league will always have more yards than the best WR in the league. Harvin isn't a runningback, he gets a handful of carries, but 90% of his game is receiving.

    Last year, best WR had 1448 yards. Best RB had 1616 rush yards, and another 604 receiving yards, over 2200 total yards. Not a good comparison, because Foster is better than Lloyd, but it still stands true that RB's generally have better yardage than WR's.

  3. #13
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    Pre-Draft Rankings.. Reliable or BS?

    So as others have commented a selection criteria would have to be developed. My intial thought is that a top 20 predraft ranking means that scouts feel a kid could step in and contribute (produce), and be a 'franchise guy' in terms of keeping thier nose clean. With this in mind, I think IBP hit on those who are busts by this definition. Teams are paying for both production and image in this business and therefore off field issues have to be taken into account with Benson, and Pacman.

    I think that the pre draft rankings are as much BS as they are reliable. Where they make the difference is on tweener guys. Guys who show more at a workout than they do on the game tape. Guys whose hype may be cresting like a wave. I also think that the media uses this as a way to keep the NFL relevant with thier different mock drafts and player evals. IN other words its a way to sell hope to fans whose seasons may have otherwise not gone the way they had liked. I can think of a certain purple and gold team who fits that bill.......

  4. #14
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    Pre-Draft Rankings.. Reliable or BS?

    Quote Originally Posted by "i_bleed_purple" #1090894
    an interesting idea, I'm taking the top 20 players in pre-draft rankings, and see how they turned out. See whether pre-draft rankings are worth putting alot of faith in, or are they just a bunch of bums like us spewing crap. Well lets see and find out.

    Going to find the number of busts in each group. Lets begin at 2007, that's long enough ago that we can get a decent idea of who will and who won't pan out


    April 26, 2007:
    Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
    Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
    Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
    JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU
    Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
    Patrick Willis, LB, Ole Miss
    Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
    LaRon Landry, S, LSU
    Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
    Alan Branch, DT, Michigan

    Darrelle Revis, CB, Pitt
    Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
    Marshawn Lynch, RB, Cal
    Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
    Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
    Levi Brown, OT, Penn St.
    Eric Wright, CB, UNLV
    Michael Griffin, S, Texas
    Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan
    Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC


    So I count 5 busts, and alot of players who are not worth what would be a top-20 pick IMO. Guys like Okoye, Lynch, Meachem come to mind. But I have 5 truly bad players. (Gaines Adams is a tough one, he was a good player, but he died. Just like how people call Udeze a bust, unfortunate, but I've got to put him there)

    April 24, 2006 (One of my favourites)
    Reggie Bush, RB, USC
    Matt Leinart, QB, USC

    D'Brickashaw Ferguson, OT, Virginia
    Mario Williams, DE, North Carolina St.
    A.J. Hawk, LB, Ohio St.
    DeAngelo Williams, RB, Memphis
    Vernon Davis, TE, Maryland
    Haloti Ngata, DT, Oregon
    Brodrick Bunkley, DT, Florida St.
    Michael Huff, CB, Texas

    Manny Lawson, DE, North Carolina St.
    Santonio Holmes, WR, Ohio St.
    Vince Young, QB, Texas

    Jay Cutler, QB, Vanderbilt
    Kamerion Wimbley, DE, Florida St.
    Tye Hill, CB, Clemson

    Jonathan Joseph, CB, South Carolina
    Eric Winston, OT, Miami
    Chad Greenway, LB, Iowa
    LenDale White, RB, USC


    I count 6 true busts, and a number of players questionable for top-20 talent. (AJ Hawk, Cutler, Joseph)

    2005 (our favourite year)

    Alex Smith
    Braylon Edwards
    Aaron Rodgers
    Ronnie brown
    Carnell williams
    Antrel Rolle
    Cedric Benson
    Mike Williams
    Derrick Johnson
    Shawne Merriman
    Troy Williamson
    Marcus Spears
    Alex Barron
    Erasmus James
    Adam Jones
    Travis Johnson

    David Pollack
    Jamaal Brown
    Mark Clayton

    9 busts, and another 2-3 players who aren't complete busts, but shouldn't be top-20 guys (Brown, Caddy, Edwards), and there's Merriman..

    so for the last three years, i consider there to be 20/60 true busts, with another 10 or so decent-at-best players.

    Perhaps later I'll do some previous years as well, but that's a start. 1 out of every 3 of the "top 20" players it seems will bust.

    Looks like even more proof, you should draft by what player you think best fits what you need, rather than go by the rankings.

    And yes Marty, i still think we should have grabbed McCoy, I know you're going to go there
    A QB needs to have at least 64 consecutive starts with no interruptions, changes in coaching or lunar eclipses before you can decide whether they are going to work out or not. So with that notion you have to take about 6 guys off the list since we just had a total eclipse last Dec21.:laugh:

  5. #15
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    Pre-Draft Rankings.. Reliable or BS?

    Quote Originally Posted by "i_bleed_purple" #1090932
    Comparing WR to RB.

    The best RB in the league will always have more yards than the best WR in the league. Harvin isn't a runningback, he gets a handful of carries, but 90% of his game is receiving.

    Last year, best WR had 1448 yards. Best RB had 1616 rush yards, and another 604 receiving yards, over 2200 total yards. Not a good comparison, because Foster is better than Lloyd, but it still stands true that RB's generally have better yardage than WR's.
    True. But you have to realize that Bush does play more at the reciever than any other back in the league(more catches in his first 2 years than harvin).
    In five years bush has 36TD's, more than 7 per season, 19 rushing, 14recieving, 3returning. He was also a big part of the Saints going to and winning a superbowl. If that's a bust I sure hope the Vikings draft 3 or 4 busts this year.

  6. #16
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    Pre-Draft Rankings.. Reliable or BS?

    Quote Originally Posted by "jmcdon00" #1090945
    Quote Originally Posted by "i_bleed_purple" #1090932
    Comparing WR to RB.

    The best RB in the league will always have more yards than the best WR in the league. Harvin isn't a runningback, he gets a handful of carries, but 90% of his game is receiving.

    Last year, best WR had 1448 yards. Best RB had 1616 rush yards, and another 604 receiving yards, over 2200 total yards. Not a good comparison, because Foster is better than Lloyd, but it still stands true that RB's generally have better yardage than WR's.
    True. But you have to realize that Bush does play more at the reciever than any other back in the league(more catches in his first 2 years than harvin).
    In five years bush has 36TD's, more than 7 per season, 19 rushing, 14recieving, 3returning. He was also a big part of the Saints going to and winning a superbowl. If that's a bust I sure hope the Vikings draft 3 or 4 busts this year.
    was he worth a 2nd overall pick to you?

  7. #17
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    Pre-Draft Rankings.. Reliable or BS?

    Quote Originally Posted by "i_bleed_purple" #1090928
    Quote Originally Posted by "tastywaves" #1090926
    I think you should look at this from the perspective of what value did the team making the pick get vs. the dollars they spent on the player over their initial contract. That is, compare what you paid the rookie over his 4-5 year contract vs. a vet getting the same salary.
    Yes, but the point of being a bust is not living up to the hype.

    Reggie bush is an example. Fora guy who was touted to be the next greatest thing since Barry Sanders, he's been a massive bust and overpaid punt returner. However, if he were a 6th round pick, I'd say that's pretty damn good value.

    By your reasoning, the only way to be a bust on this list is to be out of the NFL, or not contributing whatsoever.

    A number of the players that you list as busts, actually have been pretty productive NFL players. I would judge them against what teams had to pay them in salary and rank them against other players getting paid similar dollars. For the first 10 picks, the rookie salaries rank them pretty high in their respective positions so I think you are fair in ranking them against the best players in the league. For the bottom 10 (not a defined line mind you), their salaries put them down a few notches compared to what they could have got from a vet with equal salaries.
    Again, all depends on how you define bust. When you have a very high pick, you expect a very good player. When you get mediocre to bad talent, that's a bust.
    The idea of building from the draft is not just to have younger, hopefully career team players, but to get better production for lesser money. Certain positions like QB and WR that have longer natural learning curves, make them that much harder to pick in the first 10 picks with the salaries that are currently being given out.
    Not always the case. Look at the Packers, they've got the highest payroll in the NFCN. They've got some expensive draft picks, and guys who will be re-signing for big bucks.
    To the bolded above, that is not what I'm saying at all. I just don't like using the hype meter as a barometer of determining success. Hype is meaningless when measuring the value of a pick to an organization. Production vs. salary is what I think is most relevant. To spin it around on you. If you take a guy at #1 that is completely under the radar and "unhyped" and that guy turns out to be an average player in the NFL, that would not be considered a bust with your statement above. It is with mine.

    Reggie Bush would definitely classify as a bust in either case, as his $10M/yr salary puts him above the likes of Peterson, Johnson, Foster and hell I think everyone in the league? His production on the other hand is no where near the top paid RB's in the league. They picked him too early and paid him too much.

    To jmc's point, this does not mean he is not a worthy roster player that is a valuable part of the Saints offense. He is just overpaid for the value he provides.

    I do agree with this statement:
    When you have a very high pick, you expect a very good player. When you get mediocre to bad talent, that's a bust.
    I also don't disagree with most of your picks...mostly trying to point out that the current rookie salaries are skewing the value of those picks to the organizations. The top 20 picks are mostly roster worthy players, however, many of them don't live up to the salaries that they are given under the current system.

    Put another way, I would guess that the top 20 players picked in the draft end up being more productive than any other 20 grouping throughout the draft. Expecting the top 20 picks to all be top 5 players in their respective positions is never going to happen and is unfair to expect it. Which is why these rookies should not get paid like it.

    After the first 10-15 picks the salaries go down drastically and getting value with your pick is much easier to attain.

  8. #18
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    Pre-Draft Rankings.. Reliable or BS?

    Quote Originally Posted by "i_bleed_purple" #1090950
    Quote Originally Posted by "jmcdon00" #1090945
    Quote Originally Posted by "i_bleed_purple" #1090932
    Comparing WR to RB.

    The best RB in the league will always have more yards than the best WR in the league. Harvin isn't a runningback, he gets a handful of carries, but 90% of his game is receiving.

    Last year, best WR had 1448 yards. Best RB had 1616 rush yards, and another 604 receiving yards, over 2200 total yards. Not a good comparison, because Foster is better than Lloyd, but it still stands true that RB's generally have better yardage than WR's.
    True. But you have to realize that Bush does play more at the reciever than any other back in the league(more catches in his first 2 years than harvin).
    In five years bush has 36TD's, more than 7 per season, 19 rushing, 14recieving, 3returning. He was also a big part of the Saints going to and winning a superbowl. If that's a bust I sure hope the Vikings draft 3 or 4 busts this year.
    was he worth a 2nd overall pick to you?
    In hind sight no, but just because he wasn't the 2nd best player in the draft doesn't make him a bust.(Of course if I knew I'd win a superbowl with him I would).
    If they redid the draft with hindsight he would still likely go in the first round, just later in the first round.

  9. #19
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    Pre-Draft Rankings.. Reliable or BS?

    Quote Originally Posted by "jmcdon00" #1090954
    Quote Originally Posted by "i_bleed_purple" #1090950
    Quote Originally Posted by "jmcdon00" #1090945
    Quote Originally Posted by "i_bleed_purple" #1090932
    Comparing WR to RB.

    The best RB in the league will always have more yards than the best WR in the league. Harvin isn't a runningback, he gets a handful of carries, but 90% of his game is receiving.

    Last year, best WR had 1448 yards. Best RB had 1616 rush yards, and another 604 receiving yards, over 2200 total yards. Not a good comparison, because Foster is better than Lloyd, but it still stands true that RB's generally have better yardage than WR's.
    True. But you have to realize that Bush does play more at the reciever than any other back in the league(more catches in his first 2 years than harvin).
    In five years bush has 36TD's, more than 7 per season, 19 rushing, 14recieving, 3returning. He was also a big part of the Saints going to and winning a superbowl. If that's a bust I sure hope the Vikings draft 3 or 4 busts this year.
    was he worth a 2nd overall pick to you?
    In hind sight no, but just because he wasn't the 2nd best player in the draft doesn't make him a bust.(Of course if I knew I'd win a superbowl with him I would).
    If they redid the draft with hindsight he would still likely go in the first round, just later in the first round.
    You act as if Bush was the sole reason they won the superbowl, he wasn't. Yes, he had one extremely good game, Falcons I believe? Other than that he was pretty average.

  10. #20
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    Pre-Draft Rankings.. Reliable or BS?

    Quote Originally Posted by "jmcdon00" #1090954
    Quote Originally Posted by "i_bleed_purple" #1090950
    Quote Originally Posted by "jmcdon00" #1090945
    Quote Originally Posted by "i_bleed_purple" #1090932
    Comparing WR to RB.

    The best RB in the league will always have more yards than the best WR in the league. Harvin isn't a runningback, he gets a handful of carries, but 90% of his game is receiving.

    Last year, best WR had 1448 yards. Best RB had 1616 rush yards, and another 604 receiving yards, over 2200 total yards. Not a good comparison, because Foster is better than Lloyd, but it still stands true that RB's generally have better yardage than WR's.
    True. But you have to realize that Bush does play more at the reciever than any other back in the league(more catches in his first 2 years than harvin).
    In five years bush has 36TD's, more than 7 per season, 19 rushing, 14recieving, 3returning. He was also a big part of the Saints going to and winning a superbowl. If that's a bust I sure hope the Vikings draft 3 or 4 busts this year.
    was he worth a 2nd overall pick to you?
    In hind sight no, but just because he wasn't the 2nd best player in the draft doesn't make him a bust.(Of course if I knew I'd win a superbowl with him I would).
    If they redid the draft with hindsight he would still likely go in the first round, just later in the first round.
    I think the point is Reggie Bush hasn't even sniffed his (our) expectations. Reggie was the most hyped player most of us have ever seen coming into the draft. When a player falls greatly short of their expectations = bust, at least IMO. He's not a terrible player...actually a pretty good PR and a decent specialty RB but he's a bust.

    Definitely a debatable topic but I call bust...not the same level of Twill Hands of Stone, but still a bust.

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