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  1. #1
    i_bleed_purple's Avatar
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    Pre-Draft Rankings.. Reliable or BS?

    an interesting idea, I'm taking the top 20 players in pre-draft rankings, and see how they turned out. See whether pre-draft rankings are worth putting alot of faith in, or are they just a bunch of bums like us spewing crap. Well lets see and find out.

    Going to find the number of busts in each group. Lets begin at 2007, that's long enough ago that we can get a decent idea of who will and who won't pan out


    April 26, 2007:
    Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
    Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
    Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
    JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU
    Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
    Patrick Willis, LB, Ole Miss
    Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
    LaRon Landry, S, LSU
    Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
    Alan Branch, DT, Michigan

    Darrelle Revis, CB, Pitt
    Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
    Marshawn Lynch, RB, Cal
    Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
    Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
    Levi Brown, OT, Penn St.
    Eric Wright, CB, UNLV
    Michael Griffin, S, Texas
    Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan
    Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC


    So I count 5 busts, and alot of players who are not worth what would be a top-20 pick IMO. Guys like Okoye, Lynch, Meachem come to mind. But I have 5 truly bad players. (Gaines Adams is a tough one, he was a good player, but he died. Just like how people call Udeze a bust, unfortunate, but I've got to put him there)

    April 24, 2006 (One of my favourites)
    Reggie Bush, RB, USC
    Matt Leinart, QB, USC

    D'Brickashaw Ferguson, OT, Virginia
    Mario Williams, DE, North Carolina St.
    A.J. Hawk, LB, Ohio St.
    DeAngelo Williams, RB, Memphis
    Vernon Davis, TE, Maryland
    Haloti Ngata, DT, Oregon
    Brodrick Bunkley, DT, Florida St.
    Michael Huff, CB, Texas

    Manny Lawson, DE, North Carolina St.
    Santonio Holmes, WR, Ohio St.
    Vince Young, QB, Texas

    Jay Cutler, QB, Vanderbilt
    Kamerion Wimbley, DE, Florida St.
    Tye Hill, CB, Clemson

    Jonathan Joseph, CB, South Carolina
    Eric Winston, OT, Miami
    Chad Greenway, LB, Iowa
    LenDale White, RB, USC


    I count 6 true busts, and a number of players questionable for top-20 talent. (AJ Hawk, Cutler, Joseph)

    2005 (our favourite year)

    Alex Smith
    Braylon Edwards
    Aaron Rodgers
    Ronnie brown
    Carnell williams
    Antrel Rolle
    Cedric Benson
    Mike Williams
    Derrick Johnson
    Shawne Merriman
    Troy Williamson
    Marcus Spears
    Alex Barron
    Erasmus James
    Adam Jones
    Travis Johnson

    David Pollack
    Jamaal Brown
    Mark Clayton

    9 busts, and another 2-3 players who aren't complete busts, but shouldn't be top-20 guys (Brown, Caddy, Edwards), and there's Merriman..

    so for the last three years, i consider there to be 20/60 true busts, with another 10 or so decent-at-best players.

    Perhaps later I'll do some previous years as well, but that's a start. 1 out of every 3 of the "top 20" players it seems will bust.

    Looks like even more proof, you should draft by what player you think best fits what you need, rather than go by the rankings.

    And yes Marty, i still think we should have grabbed McCoy, I know you're going to go there

  2. #2
    skum's Avatar
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    Pre-Draft Rankings.. Reliable or BS?

    I wouldnt call David Pollack a bust, he was struck by injury and almost paralysed and retired - but he was a very good player..

    With that said - it is really hard to get into these players brains and see how they will adapt to the speed on the NFL, i think that a good portion of background work and a good teamwork between coordinators, head coach and front office guys is what is essential in order to avoid mistakes.. Don't fall in love with measurables and get your confidence get you in a mindset that you can coach this players flaws away, because most of the times - you can't..


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  3. #3
    Marrdro's Avatar
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    Pre-Draft Rankings.. Reliable or BS?

    Quote Originally Posted by "i_bleed_purple" #1090894
    an interesting idea, I'm taking the top 20 players in pre-draft rankings, and see how they turned out. See whether pre-draft rankings are worth putting alot of faith in, or are they just a bunch of bums like us spewing crap. Well lets see and find out.

    Going to find the number of busts in each group. Lets begin at 2007, that's long enough ago that we can get a decent idea of who will and who won't pan out


    April 26, 2007:
    Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
    Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
    Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
    JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU
    Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
    Patrick Willis, LB, Ole Miss
    Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
    LaRon Landry, S, LSU
    Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
    Alan Branch, DT, Michigan

    Darrelle Revis, CB, Pitt
    Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
    Marshawn Lynch, RB, Cal
    Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
    Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
    Levi Brown, OT, Penn St.
    Eric Wright, CB, UNLV
    Michael Griffin, S, Texas
    Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan
    Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC


    So I count 5 busts, and alot of players who are not worth what would be a top-20 pick IMO. Guys like Okoye, Lynch, Meachem come to mind. But I have 5 truly bad players. (Gaines Adams is a tough one, he was a good player, but he died. Just like how people call Udeze a bust, unfortunate, but I've got to put him there)

    April 24, 2006 (One of my favourites)
    Reggie Bush, RB, USC
    Matt Leinart, QB, USC

    D'Brickashaw Ferguson, OT, Virginia
    Mario Williams, DE, North Carolina St.
    A.J. Hawk, LB, Ohio St.
    DeAngelo Williams, RB, Memphis
    Vernon Davis, TE, Maryland
    Haloti Ngata, DT, Oregon
    Brodrick Bunkley, DT, Florida St.
    Michael Huff, CB, Texas

    Manny Lawson, DE, North Carolina St.
    Santonio Holmes, WR, Ohio St.
    Vince Young, QB, Texas

    Jay Cutler, QB, Vanderbilt
    Kamerion Wimbley, DE, Florida St.
    Tye Hill, CB, Clemson

    Jonathan Joseph, CB, South Carolina
    Eric Winston, OT, Miami
    Chad Greenway, LB, Iowa
    LenDale White, RB, USC


    I count 6 true busts, and a number of players questionable for top-20 talent. (AJ Hawk, Cutler, Joseph)

    2005 (our favourite year)

    Alex Smith
    Braylon Edwards
    Aaron Rodgers
    Ronnie brown
    Carnell williams
    Antrel Rolle
    Cedric Benson
    Mike Williams
    Derrick Johnson
    Shawne Merriman
    Troy Williamson
    Marcus Spears
    Alex Barron
    Erasmus James
    Adam Jones
    Travis Johnson

    David Pollack
    Jamaal Brown
    Mark Clayton

    9 busts, and another 2-3 players who aren't complete busts, but shouldn't be top-20 guys (Brown, Caddy, Edwards), and there's Merriman..

    so for the last three years, i consider there to be 20/60 true busts, with another 10 or so decent-at-best players.

    Perhaps later I'll do some previous years as well, but that's a start. 1 out of every 3 of the "top 20" players it seems will bust.

    Looks like even more proof, you should draft by what player you think best fits what you need, rather than go by the rankings.

    And yes Marty, i still think we should have grabbed McCoy, I know you're going to go there
    I wasn't to far off when I said that my initial thought would be that QB's and WR's would be the biggest busts.

    As to your ratings....

    Benson. I think he did fine as a Bengal but didn't work out as a Bore even though, when he was a Bore, he was very productive. They just opted not to sign him.

    Lendale White is another one who was productive in a system that fit his skill set but sucked when used wrong.

    Pacman is another one I wouldn't label a bust from a production standpoint. He was very productive. Problem was his off field issues.

    Jarrett. I'm giving you that one, only want to mention how many wanted him instead of Rice. Still cracks me up how many touted him as a "Beast".

    And yes Marty, i still think we should have grabbed McCoy, I know you're going to go there
    There ya go again. Trying to read my mind. I can't even read my mind.......Why would you try?B)
    Many many thanks to my talented friend Jos for the new Sig.http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v343/josdin00/Vikings/Marrdro_sig.jpg

  4. #4
    Marrdro's Avatar
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    Pre-Draft Rankings.. Reliable or BS?

    Quote Originally Posted by "skum" #1090906
    I wouldnt call David Pollack a bust, he was struck by injury and almost paralysed and retired - but he was a very good player..

    With that said - it is really hard to get into these players brains and see how they will adapt to the speed on the NFL, i think that a good portion of background work and a good teamwork between coordinators, head coach and front office guys is what is essential in order to avoid mistakes.. Don't fall in love with measurables and get your confidence get you in a mindset that you can coach this players flaws away, because most of the times - you can't..
    I don't think there are very many staffs that rely on measurables.

    I think Mayock said it best when talking about measuurables, "It causes you to go back and look at the tape, to see if you missed something if someone does a workout at the combine that exceeds (or doesn't measure up to) what you initially saw on tape".

    The real benifit from the combine, isn't the measurables anyways. Its the first look the staffs have of guys being coached by pro coaches as well as first time they have a chance to go one on one with them.

    Helps narrow down who they will have in for a visit.
    Many many thanks to my talented friend Jos for the new Sig.http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v343/josdin00/Vikings/Marrdro_sig.jpg

  5. #5
    i_bleed_purple's Avatar
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    Pre-Draft Rankings.. Reliable or BS?

    Quote Originally Posted by "Marrdro" #1090919
    Quote Originally Posted by "i_bleed_purple" #1090894
    an interesting idea, I'm taking the top 20 players in pre-draft rankings, and see how they turned out. See whether pre-draft rankings are worth putting alot of faith in, or are they just a bunch of bums like us spewing crap. Well lets see and find out.

    Going to find the number of busts in each group. Lets begin at 2007, that's long enough ago that we can get a decent idea of who will and who won't pan out


    April 26, 2007:
    Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
    Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
    Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
    JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU
    Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
    Patrick Willis, LB, Ole Miss
    Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
    LaRon Landry, S, LSU
    Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
    Alan Branch, DT, Michigan

    Darrelle Revis, CB, Pitt
    Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
    Marshawn Lynch, RB, Cal
    Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
    Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
    Levi Brown, OT, Penn St.
    Eric Wright, CB, UNLV
    Michael Griffin, S, Texas
    Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan
    Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC


    So I count 5 busts, and alot of players who are not worth what would be a top-20 pick IMO. Guys like Okoye, Lynch, Meachem come to mind. But I have 5 truly bad players. (Gaines Adams is a tough one, he was a good player, but he died. Just like how people call Udeze a bust, unfortunate, but I've got to put him there)

    April 24, 2006 (One of my favourites)
    Reggie Bush, RB, USC
    Matt Leinart, QB, USC

    D'Brickashaw Ferguson, OT, Virginia
    Mario Williams, DE, North Carolina St.
    A.J. Hawk, LB, Ohio St.
    DeAngelo Williams, RB, Memphis
    Vernon Davis, TE, Maryland
    Haloti Ngata, DT, Oregon
    Brodrick Bunkley, DT, Florida St.
    Michael Huff, CB, Texas

    Manny Lawson, DE, North Carolina St.
    Santonio Holmes, WR, Ohio St.
    Vince Young, QB, Texas

    Jay Cutler, QB, Vanderbilt
    Kamerion Wimbley, DE, Florida St.
    Tye Hill, CB, Clemson

    Jonathan Joseph, CB, South Carolina
    Eric Winston, OT, Miami
    Chad Greenway, LB, Iowa
    LenDale White, RB, USC


    I count 6 true busts, and a number of players questionable for top-20 talent. (AJ Hawk, Cutler, Joseph)

    2005 (our favourite year)

    Alex Smith
    Braylon Edwards
    Aaron Rodgers
    Ronnie brown
    Carnell williams
    Antrel Rolle
    Cedric Benson
    Mike Williams
    Derrick Johnson
    Shawne Merriman
    Troy Williamson
    Marcus Spears
    Alex Barron
    Erasmus James
    Adam Jones
    Travis Johnson

    David Pollack
    Jamaal Brown
    Mark Clayton

    9 busts, and another 2-3 players who aren't complete busts, but shouldn't be top-20 guys (Brown, Caddy, Edwards), and there's Merriman..

    so for the last three years, i consider there to be 20/60 true busts, with another 10 or so decent-at-best players.

    Perhaps later I'll do some previous years as well, but that's a start. 1 out of every 3 of the "top 20" players it seems will bust.

    Looks like even more proof, you should draft by what player you think best fits what you need, rather than go by the rankings.

    And yes Marty, i still think we should have grabbed McCoy, I know you're going to go there
    I wasn't to far off when I said that my initial thought would be that QB's and WR's would be the biggest busts.

    As to your ratings....

    Benson. I think he did fine as a Bengal but didn't work out as a Bore even though, when he was a Bore, he was very productive. They just opted not to sign him.
    He really only had one real good year that would warrant a top-20 pick, and his attitude was a big issue. Being a bust doesn't just mean not being skilled enough. Career injury, arrests, etc. all play into it. Guy had a 3.5 yard average last season and 1111 yards. and equally mediocre to worse stats the rest of his career. Not worth of a top-5 pick in the draft

    Lendale White is another one who was productive in a system that fit his skill set but sucked when used wrong.
    I wouldn't even say he produced. He was big, so they used him near the goalline, racked up decent TD's, but that's about it. He hd two good years. one had 1100 yards (poor average though), and 7 TD. Anothe rhe had 700ish and 15 TD(pretty damn good) other than that though, not much, and you have to wonder why he didn't play a game at all last season if he was actually anything more than a troubled short-yardage back.
    Pacman is another one I wouldn't label a bust from a production standpoint. He was very productive. Problem was his off field issues.
    exactly. When you can't be relied on to actually be allowed to play, you count as a bust.

    Jarrett. I'm giving you that one, only want to mention how many wanted him instead of Rice. Still cracks me up how many touted him as a "Beast".
    In college he was a "beast" Again, some guys wanted him, some didn't. Just like some other players that come to mind. Anothe rexample of how nfl scouts don't always know all

  6. #6
    marshallvike's Avatar
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    Pre-Draft Rankings.. Reliable or BS?

    Quote Originally Posted by "Marrdro" #1090919
    Quote Originally Posted by "i_bleed_purple" #1090894
    an interesting idea, I'm taking the top 20 players in pre-draft rankings, and see how they turned out. See whether pre-draft rankings are worth putting alot of faith in, or are they just a bunch of bums like us spewing crap. Well lets see and find out.

    Going to find the number of busts in each group. Lets begin at 2007, that's long enough ago that we can get a decent idea of who will and who won't pan out


    April 26, 2007:
    Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
    Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
    Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
    JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU
    Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
    Patrick Willis, LB, Ole Miss
    Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
    LaRon Landry, S, LSU
    Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
    Alan Branch, DT, Michigan

    Darrelle Revis, CB, Pitt
    Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
    Marshawn Lynch, RB, Cal
    Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
    Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
    Levi Brown, OT, Penn St.
    Eric Wright, CB, UNLV
    Michael Griffin, S, Texas
    Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan
    Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC


    So I count 5 busts, and alot of players who are not worth what would be a top-20 pick IMO. Guys like Okoye, Lynch, Meachem come to mind. But I have 5 truly bad players. (Gaines Adams is a tough one, he was a good player, but he died. Just like how people call Udeze a bust, unfortunate, but I've got to put him there)

    April 24, 2006 (One of my favourites)
    Reggie Bush, RB, USC
    Matt Leinart, QB, USC

    D'Brickashaw Ferguson, OT, Virginia
    Mario Williams, DE, North Carolina St.
    A.J. Hawk, LB, Ohio St.
    DeAngelo Williams, RB, Memphis
    Vernon Davis, TE, Maryland
    Haloti Ngata, DT, Oregon
    Brodrick Bunkley, DT, Florida St.
    Michael Huff, CB, Texas

    Manny Lawson, DE, North Carolina St.
    Santonio Holmes, WR, Ohio St.
    Vince Young, QB, Texas

    Jay Cutler, QB, Vanderbilt
    Kamerion Wimbley, DE, Florida St.
    Tye Hill, CB, Clemson

    Jonathan Joseph, CB, South Carolina
    Eric Winston, OT, Miami
    Chad Greenway, LB, Iowa
    LenDale White, RB, USC


    I count 6 true busts, and a number of players questionable for top-20 talent. (AJ Hawk, Cutler, Joseph)

    2005 (our favourite year)

    Alex Smith
    Braylon Edwards
    Aaron Rodgers
    Ronnie brown
    Carnell williams
    Antrel Rolle
    Cedric Benson
    Mike Williams
    Derrick Johnson
    Shawne Merriman
    Troy Williamson
    Marcus Spears
    Alex Barron
    Erasmus James
    Adam Jones
    Travis Johnson

    David Pollack
    Jamaal Brown
    Mark Clayton

    9 busts, and another 2-3 players who aren't complete busts, but shouldn't be top-20 guys (Brown, Caddy, Edwards), and there's Merriman..

    so for the last three years, i consider there to be 20/60 true busts, with another 10 or so decent-at-best players.

    Perhaps later I'll do some previous years as well, but that's a start. 1 out of every 3 of the "top 20" players it seems will bust.

    Looks like even more proof, you should draft by what player you think best fits what you need, rather than go by the rankings.

    And yes Marty, i still think we should have grabbed McCoy, I know you're going to go there
    I wasn't to far off when I said that my initial thought would be that QB's and WR's would be the biggest busts.

    As to your ratings....

    Benson. I think he did fine as a Bengal but didn't work out as a Bore even though, when he was a Bore, he was very productive. They just opted not to sign him.

    Lendale White is another one who was productive in a system that fit his skill set but sucked when used wrong.

    Pacman is another one I wouldn't label a bust from a production standpoint. He was very productive. Problem was his off field issues.

    Jarrett. I'm giving you that one, only want to mention how many wanted him instead of Rice. Still cracks me up how many touted him as a "Beast".

    And yes Marty, i still think we should have grabbed McCoy, I know you're going to go there
    There ya go again. Trying to read my mind. I can't even read my mind.......Why would you try?B)
    Benson was quite a bust here. 4th pick in the draft.The Bores traded Thomas Jones, who was productive here, to make Benson the feature back. Unfortunately he wasn't as good as Thomas Jones. Couple that with the whining about the vets hitting him too hard in practice, picking on him and his off field issues(drinking) and he was gladly ushered out the door.
    Why must you defend everything this FO does....to the point of making your self look like a yes man.

  7. #7
    tastywaves's Avatar
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    Pre-Draft Rankings.. Reliable or BS?

    I think you should look at this from the perspective of what value did the team making the pick get vs. the dollars they spent on the player over their initial contract. That is, compare what you paid the rookie over his 4-5 year contract vs. a vet getting the same salary.

    A number of the players that you list as busts, actually have been pretty productive NFL players. I would judge them against what teams had to pay them in salary and rank them against other players getting paid similar dollars. For the first 10 picks, the rookie salaries rank them pretty high in their respective positions so I think you are fair in ranking them against the best players in the league. For the bottom 10 (not a defined line mind you), their salaries put them down a few notches compared to what they could have got from a vet with equal salaries.

    The idea of building from the draft is not just to have younger, hopefully career team players, but to get better production for lesser money. Certain positions like QB and WR that have longer natural learning curves, make them that much harder to pick in the first 10 picks with the salaries that are currently being given out.

    If they do lower rookie salaries in the new CBA, the way you judge a bust needs to be re-evaluated. It will greatly change the landscape of the draft if you take a $5-10M/yr rookie contract down to $2-3M/yr and reduce the length of the average contract down from 5 years to 3 years.

  8. #8
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    Pre-Draft Rankings.. Reliable or BS?

    Interesting idea for a thread. Who's pre-draft ranking did you use?

    I would be more interested to know how close pre-draft rankings predict who will be drafted where(that's what I thought when i read the title).

    BTW, Reggie Bush was not a bust. Maybe didn't live up to the hype but he's been a productive player all 5 years in the league, and helped his team win a superbowl.

  9. #9
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    Pre-Draft Rankings.. Reliable or BS?

    Quote Originally Posted by "tastywaves" #1090926
    I think you should look at this from the perspective of what value did the team making the pick get vs. the dollars they spent on the player over their initial contract. That is, compare what you paid the rookie over his 4-5 year contract vs. a vet getting the same salary.
    Yes, but the point of being a bust is not living up to the hype.

    Reggie bush is an example. Fora guy who was touted to be the next greatest thing since Barry Sanders, he's been a massive bust and overpaid punt returner. However, if he were a 6th round pick, I'd say that's pretty damn good value.

    By your reasoning, the only way to be a bust on this list is to be out of the NFL, or not contributing whatsoever.

    [qoute]
    A number of the players that you list as busts, actually have been pretty productive NFL players. I would judge them against what teams had to pay them in salary and rank them against other players getting paid similar dollars. For the first 10 picks, the rookie salaries rank them pretty high in their respective positions so I think you are fair in ranking them against the best players in the league. For the bottom 10 (not a defined line mind you), their salaries put them down a few notches compared to what they could have got from a vet with equal salaries.[/quote]

    Again, all depends on how you define bust. When you have a very high pick, you expect a very good player. When you get mediocre to bad talent, that's a bust.
    The idea of building from the draft is not just to have younger, hopefully career team players, but to get better production for lesser money. Certain positions like QB and WR that have longer natural learning curves, make them that much harder to pick in the first 10 picks with the salaries that are currently being given out.
    Not always the case. Look at the Packers, they've got the highest payroll in the NFCN. They've got some expensive draft picks, and guys who will be re-signing for big bucks.

  10. #10
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    Pre-Draft Rankings.. Reliable or BS?

    Quote Originally Posted by "jmcdon00" #1090927
    Interesting idea for a thread. Who's pre-draft ranking did you use?

    I would be more interested to know how close pre-draft rankings predict who will be drafted where(that's what I thought when i read the title).

    BTW, Reggie Bush was not a bust. Maybe didn't live up to the hype but he's been a productive player all 5 years in the league, and helped his team win a superbowl.
    Very debatable. Again, as a guy who was supposed to be the greatest thing to happen to the NFL, that people actually thought rules should be bent just to accomodate him, he's been a below average runningback, and a good punt returner. Good punt returners can be had much later on in the draft. Josh Cribbs, Devin Hester, etc. all were not #2 overall picks, but are just as good, if not better. I'd even say Hester is a better receiver than Bush is a runningback.

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