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  1. #1
    b_sandhar_29 is offline Starter
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    Ponder's QB Grading System Results

    This is from the Link http://www.dailynorseman.com/2011/3/6/2034220/an-even-more-accurate-system-of-grading-college-quarterbacks that may look very familiar to some from previous threads. This was a newly developed, highly successful way of grading QBs. Ponder's results were not in at the time but I just took a look at it and I was quite happy with what I saw.

    http://www.fantasyfootballmetrics.com/Player_News/2011/NFL%20Draft/NFL%20Draft_2011_Ponder_2-23-2011.htm

    They say that Ponder is one of the hardest QBs to analyze for the simple fact that his Junior season says "elite" and senior season says "mediocre" (most successful college QBs have a better senior season). From everything I read, 2010 was a very injury riddled season for him. His throwing motion was even changed from his elbow injury.

    I think we should refer to the 2009 stats and rating in the article above as his primary rating. It has him rated at .903 which says good/ possibly elite quarterback. He is rated just .001 below Drew Brees and about .030 above Matt Schuab. I think this guy is just too smart of a QB to not succeed. Hopefully he's nothing like Alex Smith, however I think him coming out of a pro offense really gives him an edge over him. This article does enough to convince us that Ponder has great potential, more than all except one QB in this draft (Stanzi). In the mean time I'm going to jump on the Ponder bandwagon and hope he doesn't turn out like an injury riddled Stafford.

    IN LESLIE WE TRUST!
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  2. #2
    b_sandhar_29 is offline Starter
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    Re: Ponder's QB Grading System Results

    I've really grown into Ponder over the last week or so. I think our fan base needs to have his back 100%.
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  3. #3
    HEY's Avatar
    HEY
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    Re: Ponder's QB Grading System Results

    Quote Originally Posted by "b_sandhar_29" #1096167
    http://www.fantasyfootballmetrics.com/Player_News/2011/NFL%20Draft/NFL%20Draft_2011_Ponder_2-23-2011.htm
    Just based on our formula, taking 2009 as Christian Ponder's final college season -- Ponder would have been our #2 rated QB for the 2010 Draft, behind #1 Sam Bradford. Both Ponder and Bradford would have also scored within our system's future NFL QB "success range".
    We might have been super lucky to have Ponder on the team cause we would most likely have had no chance to draft Ponder in 2010 considering our draft order and that Ponder would probably have been gone in the top 10. Destiny people!

  4. #4
    b_sandhar_29 is offline Starter
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    Re: Ponder's QB Grading System Results

    We also have to take into consideration of why he fell so much... last year he was a first round pick, this year not so much the story. Why? Injuries and character issues are the only things that bring a guys draft stock down. Injuries plagued C. Ponder's 2010 season and thus effected his play on the field.
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  5. #5
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    Re: Ponder's QB Grading System Results

    Quote Originally Posted by "HEY" #1096178
    Quote Originally Posted by "b_sandhar_29" #1096167
    http://www.fantasyfootballmetrics.com/Player_News/2011/NFL%20Draft/NFL%20Draft_2011_Ponder_2-23-2011.htm
    Just based on our formula, taking 2009 as Christian Ponder's final college season -- Ponder would have been our #2 rated QB for the 2010 Draft, behind #1 Sam Bradford. Both Ponder and Bradford would have also scored within our system's future NFL QB "success range".
    We might have been super lucky to have Ponder on the team cause we would most likely have had no chance to draft Ponder in 2010 considering our draft order and that Ponder would probably have been gone in the top 10. Destiny people!

    If destiny prevails for the Vikings, we finish last in the NFL & take Andrew Luck in 2012.

    "If at first you don't succeed, parachuting is not for you"

  6. #6
    i_bleed_purple's Avatar
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    Re: Ponder's QB Grading System Results

    Quote Originally Posted by "singersp" #1096182
    Quote Originally Posted by "HEY" #1096178
    Quote Originally Posted by "b_sandhar_29" #1096167
    http://www.fantasyfootballmetrics.com/Player_News/2011/NFL%20Draft/NFL%20Draft_2011_Ponder_2-23-2011.htm
    Just based on our formula, taking 2009 as Christian Ponder's final college season -- Ponder would have been our #2 rated QB for the 2010 Draft, behind #1 Sam Bradford. Both Ponder and Bradford would have also scored within our system's future NFL QB "success range".
    We might have been super lucky to have Ponder on the team cause we would most likely have had no chance to draft Ponder in 2010 considering our draft order and that Ponder would probably have been gone in the top 10. Destiny people!

    If destiny prevails for the Vikings, we finish last in the NFL & take Andrew Luck in 2012.
    :dry:

    GOd what a waste that would be.

  7. #7
    Marrdro's Avatar
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    Re: Ponder's QB Grading System Results

    What a great read. I think someone (might have been me) posted something like this early this year with Locker in mind.

    Couple of snippets...

    Within our mathematical model, where we analyze just based on tougher opponents/winning record opponents -- Ponder's number got even better against better competition in his Junior year -- that's a sign of a potential elite NFL QB. However, in his Senior season his metrics collapsed as the competition/opponent improved.
    The 2010 Red-Flags

    In 2010, Ponder wasn't loaded with red-flags in our system as much as he just had nothing special for passing metrics to speak of; just mediocre ones -- ones not translating to future NFL stardom. The one category he improved upon from his Junior to Senior season (essentially the only one) is with a 16.5 Pass Attempt per Passing TD metric in games against teams with a winning record. That is in-line with the NFL future elite QBs in our system, but nothing else the 2010 Ponder had among our passing metrics was in an elite class. They weren't awful, just not a standout.

    From a physical standpoint, Ponder is questionable at 6'2.1" height and not historically great on a few other physical metrics either.
    2011 Senior Bowl MVP

    Just as a side note, Ponder was named MVP of the 2011 Senior Bowl. He was the only QB to throw a TD in the game, actually he had 2 Passing TDs total. In his limited time, Ponder was 7 of 13 for 132 yards and no picks. Ponder had an extremely high 18.9 yards per completion in the limited time, a 350-400 yard pace for a normal full game played.
    The closest NFL QB that had similar data across the board in college with Ponder (circa 2010), including physically, is Chad Henne. There are also some Eli Manning comps in there as well. Both of them kinda make sense. I could see Ponder being "good" like Eli Manning, but not elite...just good. I also could see him struggling with flashes of really good games to get people excited...only to let them down -- like Chad Henne did. Henne is probably the better match as they are more similar in physical size as it translates to the NFL. Ponder stands at just barely over 6'2, that's a concerning attribute for the future NFL QBs success.
    I know I didn't count Ponder in the mix because I believed he was on the shorts side and percieved his arm motion as bad for the next level based on the size of the OL/DLmen and that relation to batted balls.

    I completely missed that he changed his motion to overcome that injury.

    Fricken amazing thing that he could change a throwing motion that easily when you consider how guys like Tebow are still working on trying to change theirs.

    As an NFL GM, I would have Ponder on my radar screen as a mid/later round pick to have a "cheap" look at who Ponder really is. Is his story just fluke injuries or is he "injury-prone"? Is he more like Roethlisberger or Henne? A definite risk/reward selection, but one that I don't think an NFL team should pay (with a high pick) a lot for. My guess is that he will be a 3rd-4th Round pick. If the NFL medical investigators have nothing but positive reports on his past injuries, maybe he sneaks into the 2nd Round. With so many good QBs this year, I have feeling most NFL teams aren't going to reach for Christian Ponder...and that ultimately may be a mistake. If your team gets Ponder, there is at minimum = "hope". There are many more big name 2011 QBs, who are system would indicate have "no hope", with Ponder there might be something.
    OOOOOPPPPSSSSSS......hmy: hmy:

    In the end, and after I did some more research on the kid, I really like the pick. I think we finally have our "Franchise QB" and can't wait to see him on the field.
    Many many thanks to my talented friend Jos for the new Sig.http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v343/josdin00/Vikings/Marrdro_sig.jpg

  8. #8
    i_bleed_purple's Avatar
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    Re: Ponder's QB Grading System Results

    Quote Originally Posted by "Marrdro" #1096266

    Fricken amazing thing that he could change a throwing motion that easily when you consider how guys like Tebow are still working on trying to change theirs.
    Just a comment on that, and not a knock against Ponder, so don't get all excited, but it's much easier to change a throwing motion when it hurts to do it the old way.

    In Tebow's case, his old motion worked just fine for him in college, and he's being forced to change it.

    Ponder had to change it just to be able to throw at all. One was based on need, the other based on necessity. Tebow probably slips a few times and uses the old motion, possibly without noticing. Ponder would definitely notice if his elbow started hurting.

  9. #9
    Marrdro's Avatar
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    Re: Ponder's QB Grading System Results

    Quote Originally Posted by "i_bleed_purple" #1096267
    Quote Originally Posted by "Marrdro" #1096266

    Fricken amazing thing that he could change a throwing motion that easily when you consider how guys like Tebow are still working on trying to change theirs.
    Just a comment on that, and not a knock against Ponder, so don't get all excited, but it's much easier to change a throwing motion when it hurts to do it the old way.

    In Tebow's case, his old motion worked just fine for him in college, and he's being forced to change it.

    Ponder had to change it just to be able to throw at all. One was based on need, the other based on necessity. Tebow probably slips a few times and uses the old motion, possibly without noticing. Ponder would definitely notice if his elbow started hurting.
    Good point. I thought that the idea of being labled a bust would be enough of a necessity to get it done as quick as possible.

    Maybe the Broncos should go bust his elbow up a bit. JK, couldn't resist.
    Many many thanks to my talented friend Jos for the new Sig.http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v343/josdin00/Vikings/Marrdro_sig.jpg

  10. #10
    Big C2 is offline Training Camp
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    Re: Ponder's QB Grading System Results

    I love the pick. I was hoping we would pick him in the second round but am glad we picked him in the first because he wouldn't have made it to us that late. All the pundits say it was a reach but that talk will die down if Ponder has a decent season.

    The biggest thing for me with Ponder was his accuracy. I wanted us to pick Ponder over Locker simply because of the accuracy. I watched a few highlights and loved how he hits recievers in stride and has great touch.

    It makes no difference how well you read defenses or move in the pocket if you can't consistently throw to the open receiver. To quote The Brad, "you have to make the routine plays routinely".
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