Thread: Mallett is Better than Gabbert (Insider Article)

http://fantasyfootballmetrics.com/Player_News/Content/NFL-Draft_2011_Mallett_2-22-2011.htm

My bias going into pre-study on Ryan Mallett, is that I thought that he might be the best College QB prospect for 2011. I remember him being a good size, throwing a nice ball, remembered big stats. I left the statistical study not as impressed...and definitely not our mathematical system's #1 rated college QB prospect translated for the NFL.

The biggest red-flag so far on Ryan Mallett in our algorithm is the high tendency for interceptions, as well as suspect performance in bigger games/tougher opponents.

Mallett fades against the better competition

The overall numbers look awesome! 3,869 passing yards and 32 TDs to 12 INTs...what's not to love? I fell out of love quickly when I saw how the splits of his performance played out.

Mallett vs. his weakest competition = Tennessee Tech, Louisiana-Monroe, UTEP, and Vandy (2-10):

14 TDs and 1 INT

11.8 yards per pass attempt

a Passing TD every 8.0 pass attempts

Mallett vs. his strongest competition = Alabama, LSU, South Carolina, Ohio State:

7 TDs and 7 INTs

9.1 yards per pass attempt

a Passing TD every 23.0 pass attempts

http://fantasyfootballmetrics.com/Player_News/Content/NFL-Draft_2011_Gabbert_2-17-2011.htm

Almost everyone is in love with Blaine Gabbert right now...

He is the “hot” QB prospect of the moment. I'm not exactly sure why. He has the prototypical QB size (6'5, 240), he "looks like a QB". A closer look into Gabbert's 2010 statistical passing performance compared to other QBs of this past decade will reveal some serious questions on Gabbert's pro prospects. The thought process for the "Gabbert-detractors" is the fear that he is a by-product of a "spread" offense/a shotgun offense -- and that has merit as a concern. However, I would submit that even playing within a high pass attempt offense at Missouri -- that Gabbert really underperformed within it...from a statistical standpoint.

Our QB mathematical/algorithm system looking at college data to project success in the NFL would reveal that Gabbert is not the best QB prospect available in the 2011 NFL Draft, and in fact our data would project that he may not make it as an NFL QB at all. There are some major statistical red-flags that jump right out on Gabbert that I am shocked draft analysts are not talking about. Future NFL elite QB's did NOT have red-flag metrics when we developed this system. Gabbert has a major one -- a red-flag passing metric that no QB had in college and then went on to be a success in the NFL (of the 60+ QBs we have studied to this point in the past decade). Let's look at a few of the Gabbert red-flags in detail:

Here is an interesting retro look at the 2005 debate between Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers.

It's fun some times to look back and see how players in past drafts were evaluated and I think it brings some insight into how much weight to give the current evaluations. How much different would the fortunes of the Packers and 9ers be if the QB's had been flip flopped in the draft?

http://www.ninersnation.com/2008/6/18/554001/alex-smith-vs-aaron-rodger

Originally Posted by "Purple Floyd" #1091948

Here is an interesting retro look at the 2005 debate between Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers.

It's fun some times to look back and see how players in past drafts were evaluated and I think it brings some insight into how much weight to give the current evaluations. How much different would the fortunes of the Packers and 9ers be if the QB's had been flip flopped in the draft?

http://www.ninersnation.com/2008/6/18/554001/alex-smith-vs-aaron-rodger

Interesting they knock Rodgers down for mobility. He was second in rushing among all Qb's, Vick was first.

Count me in the group that likes Mallet, not that I don't like Gabbert, but I think Mallet could be special.

Originally Posted by "Mr Anderson" #1091917

Originally Posted by "kevoncox" #1091910

Originally Posted by "Marrdro" #1091875

Originally Posted by "kevoncox" #1091872

I would love if we do the following.

1) Draft Tyron Smith or the Kid from Wisconson
2) Move Loadholt inside to play guard.
3) Trade our 2nd, switch places in the 4th and trade a 5th to move back into the top of round and snatch Mallet( remember the lions only had to switch places with us in the 4th to get back into the 1st round last year.

I think a 1st and 2nd round collection of Mallet and Smith would be a steal. Another choice is to trade back and pass on Smith to nab Solder or Pouncey and still trade up for Mallet.

Not sure why everyone is so high on Pouncey. Is he talented? Yes, but he is projected to be a good fit for a Zone Blocking Scheme.

If I was gonna move Load, I would move him to LT.

I think the guy can flat our play.

I'm with Kevon here, Pouncey can play. I don't think we're in position to take him though.

At 6'5" and an interior lineman, I'm not exactly sure how he's suited for the zone blocking scheme. Sure he's athletic, but so is Nate Solder and loads of other prospects each year.

I don't see him as more or less suited for any blocking scheme.

I was under the impression that the Vikings were moving away from the zone blocking scheme.
One good thing is that Mallet at 6'7" could see over our huge O-line better than most.

Originally Posted by "jmcdon00" #1091952

Originally Posted by "Mr Anderson" #1091917

Originally Posted by "kevoncox" #1091910

Originally Posted by "Marrdro" #1091875

Originally Posted by "kevoncox" #1091872

I would love if we do the following.

1) Draft Tyron Smith or the Kid from Wisconson
2) Move Loadholt inside to play guard.
3) Trade our 2nd, switch places in the 4th and trade a 5th to move back into the top of round and snatch Mallet( remember the lions only had to switch places with us in the 4th to get back into the 1st round last year.

I think a 1st and 2nd round collection of Mallet and Smith would be a steal. Another choice is to trade back and pass on Smith to nab Solder or Pouncey and still trade up for Mallet.

Not sure why everyone is so high on Pouncey. Is he talented? Yes, but he is projected to be a good fit for a Zone Blocking Scheme.

If I was gonna move Load, I would move him to LT.

I think the guy can flat our play.

I'm with Kevon here, Pouncey can play. I don't think we're in position to take him though.

At 6'5" and an interior lineman, I'm not exactly sure how he's suited for the zone blocking scheme. Sure he's athletic, but so is Nate Solder and loads of other prospects each year.

I don't see him as more or less suited for any blocking scheme.

I was under the impression that the Vikings were moving away from the zone blocking scheme.
One good thing is that Mallet at 6'7" could see over our huge O-line better than most.

Maybe you were just hearing my prayers.:laugh:

Originally Posted by "kevoncox" #1091910

Originally Posted by "Marrdro" #1091875

Originally Posted by "kevoncox" #1091872

I would love if we do the following.

1) Draft Tyron Smith or the Kid from Wisconson
2) Move Loadholt inside to play guard.
3) Trade our 2nd, switch places in the 4th and trade a 5th to move back into the top of round and snatch Mallet( remember the lions only had to switch places with us in the 4th to get back into the 1st round last year.

I think a 1st and 2nd round collection of Mallet and Smith would be a steal. Another choice is to trade back and pass on Smith to nab Solder or Pouncey and still trade up for Mallet.

Not sure why everyone is so high on Pouncey. Is he talented? Yes, but he is projected to be a good fit for a Zone Blocking Scheme.

If I was gonna move Load, I would move him to LT.

I think the guy can flat our play.

Your probably right. I haven't seen him play. I can only go by what the sites say right now. None of them have him rated as the top C.

One caveat to that is I haven't seen the Ourlads updated yet but they didn't have him number one either.

Right now they have him as the 34 best OLmen (in the Mr. Average) and have him slated to go to Seattle at 25, not cause he is a C, but because he can play OG, OC and OT.

Ourlads Post Combine Rankings

Ourlads Mock Draft

Remembering of course, they do their mock a bit different than say a Kiper or Mayock. They actually go with who they think best fits the system. Some of you might be suprised to see that they have Newton slipping to us at 12.

Originally Posted by "jmcdon00" #1091952

Originally Posted by "Mr Anderson" #1091917

Originally Posted by "kevoncox" #1091910

Originally Posted by "Marrdro" #1091875

Originally Posted by "kevoncox" #1091872

I would love if we do the following.

1) Draft Tyron Smith or the Kid from Wisconson
2) Move Loadholt inside to play guard.
3) Trade our 2nd, switch places in the 4th and trade a 5th to move back into the top of round and snatch Mallet( remember the lions only had to switch places with us in the 4th to get back into the 1st round last year.

I think a 1st and 2nd round collection of Mallet and Smith would be a steal. Another choice is to trade back and pass on Smith to nab Solder or Pouncey and still trade up for Mallet.

Not sure why everyone is so high on Pouncey. Is he talented? Yes, but he is projected to be a good fit for a Zone Blocking Scheme.

If I was gonna move Load, I would move him to LT.

I think the guy can flat our play.

I'm with Kevon here, Pouncey can play. I don't think we're in position to take him though.

At 6'5" and an interior lineman, I'm not exactly sure how he's suited for the zone blocking scheme. Sure he's athletic, but so is Nate Solder and loads of other prospects each year.

I don't see him as more or less suited for any blocking scheme.

I was under the impression that the Vikings were moving away from the zone blocking scheme.
One good thing is that Mallet at 6'7" could see over our huge O-line better than most.

They are supposed to be moving from it. That is why I believe Sully and Coops days are numbered and why I don't think they will draft a kid like Pouncey or any of the other OLmen that are projected to be a best fit for that scheme.

In the end, I'm not saying Pouncey can't play. I'm just saying that I don't see the Vikes taking him if he in fact best fits the ZBing scheme.