HEY's Mock Draft (WARNING: Extensive Version)
This site has been so slow that I went a little berserk and made this extensive draft analysis (to say the least)
The primarily focus here is on the upcoming 2013 Vikings' draft, but to understand the Vikes' situation I want to have a somewhat idea of how the NFL draft may fold out. I'm not the biggest fan of doing mocks because the picture can change dramatically with just one team making a surprise pick, but without further ado here's how I predict every team in the first round will draft. But be aware! This one might surprise you in one or more occasions.
EDIT: or maybe not. I started writing this several weeks ago. At the time, some of my picks were controversial. However, later on I read several expert mocks with similar approach as mine (as if my mock was leaked). The good thing about having written this a couple of weeks ago and then finishing it today is that every players' stock is constantly varying, plus trades and player signings changes team's priorities. In this way I will have a more consistent and (I believe) more relevant and true mock draft.
2013 NFL first round mock draft
Note: I take both the best player available (BPA) and team needs in consideration, but BPA weights more heavily, as it also is a often used philosophy among GM's. Also worth noting, various pending medical clarifications makes some players (like Jarvis Jones and Star Lotulelei) drop a few spots.
1. Eric Fisher OT CHIEFS
When are people going to realize that Fisher is this years best tackle? He's much bigger and physical than Joeckel. Even with his size, he seems more agile and athletic. I thought Joeckel was the better pass protector, but I think Joeckel has lost the edge on Fisher.after being seeing Fisher's dominance over top level pass-rushers in the Senior Bowl. The Combine only further exposed Fisher's great athleticism.
2. Luke Joeckel* OT JAGUARS
This year might make history. I can see two tackles becoming the first two players off the board. This is a Jaguars need (on the other hand, what do they not need?) and I don't think the Jaguars can resist picking Joeckel here if the Chiefs pass on him.
EDIT: When I was first writing this I didn't see any mocks with two tackles being the first players off the board or even Eric Fisher going before Joeckel, but later I actually have seen some mocks with the same scenarios.
3. Sharrif Floyd* DT RAIDERS
I originally wanted to go with cornerback Dee Milliner here because the Raiders surely is in a big need of a corner. However, I believe Floyd's the better player and Raiders are possibly moving to 3-4 and Floyd can play anywhere on the line there. This was a bit of a toss up, but I think the next team on the board will select the other player so it wont affect the rest of the draft order anyways.
4. Dee Milliner* CB EAGLES
As I mentioned above, had the Raiders picked Milliner, the Eagles would have taken Floyd, but Milliner is an excellent choice.
5. Bjoern Werner* DE LIONS
Werner doesn't scream out physical freak, but neither does Jared Allen and he's arguable the best defensive end in the NFL. The Lions would have one heck of a young D-line with Werner on the edge.
EDIT: Werner has lost a lot of steam lately, but it's typical in the early periods after the combine and pro days if the player is not superathletic. He went from a top 5 pick to as late as to the Vikings at 23. I wouldn't mind that happening, but teams will always go back to tape and Werner will not fall out of the top 10.
6. Barkevious Mingo* DE BROWNS
Browns are switching to 3-4 and Mingo is perfect at the outside linebacker in that role. Mingo was not used to his full strength in college and could be a monster at the next level.
7. Geno Smith QB CARDINALS
Originally the perfect scenario for the Cardinals and a reasonable spot for the best QB in this draft, but the Cardinals recently traded for Carson Palmer. He was once considered among the top QB's in the NFL and he fits the Cardinals offense very well, but he's still old and making Geno Smith hold the clipboard for a year or two sounds like a good idea.
8. Ezekiel Ansah* DE BILLS
New defensive coordinator Mike Pettine wants versatile players and Ansah has great potential with or without his hand in the dirt. Too bad his fellow junior teammate, Kyle Van Noy, decided to stay his last year in school because he could have been the top pass-rushing linebacker in this year's class. But Ansah is undoubtedly a very intriguing prospect.
9. Chance Warmack G JETS
The Jets are facing two potential losses on the offensive line and because of poor passing offense should establish the dominant running game they once had. Chance Warmack would be the best player to get that going again, instantly creating arguably the best interior line in the NFL. At the same time setting up for drafting a top running back in round two.
10. Star Lotulelei DT TITANS
Too bad Warmack just got picked up since they could really need an interior lineman. Instead they go on the opposite side of the ball. And boy they would be lucky!. If Lotulelei gets cleared by doctors he will be off the board much sooner than here. Which I honestly expect he'll be.
Last edited by HEY; 04-08-2013 at 08:58 PM.
11. Lane Johnson OT CHARGERS
San Diego really needs an offensive tackle and Lane Johnson has wow'd a lot of people the last month. He's s super athletic at over 300 pounds (runs the 40 yard as fast as Jerry Rice. Yup, you heard me! JERRY RICE!), but I feel he's being slightly overhyped and he didn't dominate in the same way as Fisher did at the Senior Bowl. Regardless, he definitely has Pro Bowl potentials, he's just more raw than the top two guys.
12. Jonathan Cooper OG DOLPHINS
If the Dolphins had a 3-4 defense, I would have mocked Jarvis Jones here. He's the top outside 3-4 linebacker in the year's class, but that's also the only spot he really fits. Instead, the Dolphins get a superb guard to replace one of the worst guards in the NFL. Not bad either.
13. Dion Jordan, DE/OLB BUCCANEERS
Dion Jordan is a super athlete and could be a steal here. I'm still not as sold on him as many people are (mocked as high as in the top 5 by some experts) and it's obvious that his combine performance sky-rocked his value. This would be a better landing spot for Jordan.
14. Kenny Vaccaro S PANTHERS
Panthers needs to upgrade their secondary perhaps more than anything else and Vaccaro is also the best player available.
15. Sheldon Richardson DE/DT SAINTS
Saints need to go defense here! Their offense can't always save the defense like they have done for so long. Sheldon would be a good fit.
16. C. Patterson* WR RAMS
There are no surefire wide receivers in this class. Cordarrelle definitely has top 10 talent, but is too raw to go that high. Will need time to develop.
17. Alec Ogletree* LB STEELERS
As good as the Steelers linebackers was, it's time for an upgrade. Ogletree has off-field issues, but talent wise this is a steal. Not to mention, he fits the Steelers' scheme.
18. Terron Armstead, OT/G COWBOYS
Similar to Lane Johnson, Armstead has done a nice job selling himself ever since the Senior Bowl. Plus, the Cowboys biggest need is O-linemen.
19. Xavier Rhodes CB GIANTS
A nice compliment to Prince Amukamara on the other side of the field. A good press corner with nice size and speed in case he gets beat on the line.
20. Barrett Jones, C/G/T BEARS
Jones can play anywhere on the line and if there's one thing Chicago needs, it's o-linemen. Fortunately, this is a good year for the big guys.
21. Eddie Lacy* RB BENGALS
The best running back in the draft falls to the Bengals who surely is in need of one.
22. D.J. Fluker* OT RAMS (from Redskins)
Sam Bradford needs far better protection. Fluker would give him that.
23. Tavon Austin* WR VIKINGS
Too bad Patterson was drafted before, but on the positive side, Austin is much more ready to play in the NFL. Before the Harvin-trade I was skeptical to go wide receiver here because there are so many questions (injuries, consistency, experience, etc.), but after losing Harvin, Tavon Austin would be a perfect pick here because he is the closest thing to Percy in this draft. And as an added bonus, Austin seems to have an excellent character.
24. Jarvis Jones LB COLTS
The Colts really need outside linebacker after switching to a 4-3 last year so Jarvis Jones would be an absolute steal here should he stay healthy. Even though he had disappointing workouts, similar to Bjorn Werner, Jarvis Jones is one of the best player in this draft. Unfortunately, the medical report on his spinal condition is so scary that I had to drop him to the Colts. If he should stay healthy, I can almost see a Von Miller-type of impact.
25. Manti Te'o ILB VIKINGS
With their starting middle linebacker gone (who wasn't even that good) the Vikings could really need a consistent playmaker in the heart of their defense. People are so stuck on his speed, but are forgetting that most of the other inside linebackers have similar 40 times. I'm more concerned about his physicality. Not that he's mentally physically, but if he can take on the blockers on the next level. However, his resume speaks for itself. Our defense could really need a stout middle linebacker.
26. Tyler Eifert TE PACKERS
Probably best player available here. Another weapon that Aaron Rodgers will like.
27. Keenan Allen* WR TEXANS
The Texans need another wideout to compliment Andre Johnson.I like Keenan Allen, but he has not seemed to fully recover from his knee injury, and that's alarming.
28. Desmond Trufant CB BRONCOS
Trufant has climbed up the draft boards since the Senior Bowl. (although he needs to keep his hands more to himself at the next level)
29. Margus Hunt DE PATRIOTS
Perhaps the physical freak of the draft. Like Brian Robison of the Vikings, Hunt was also a shot put star. Robison has developed into a good defensive end who uses the his explosive lower body to beat linemen to the quarterback.. With Hunt's blend of athleticism and size, Hunt has the potential to be dominant. And Belicheck is just the type of guy who would like Hunt.
30. Zach Ertz* TE FALCONS
Yes, two tight ends in the first round... and it should not come as a surprise! Ertz is being a bit overshadowed by Eifert which is unfair. Ertz could very well become more productive on the next level. An excellent pass catching tight end. A great successor to future Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez.
31. Sylvester Williams DT - 49'ERS
I have a difficult time determining who's the fourth best defensive tackle in this draft. Kawann Short, Jonathan Hankins, or Jesse Williams. They all make strong cases. Either one of these four will be taken in then first round.
32. Jamie Collins DE/OLB RAVENS
An impressive combine led him to shot up the boards of many people, but I believe this is a better spot for him. Collins could be a nice fit in Ravens' defensive scheme with Kruger gone.
* draft-eligible non-senior
Why this year is good for Minnesota Vikings
Not only is this a draft thin on the surefire bound-to-become-superstars, but this is a draft with good depth. Consequently, owning a pick in the top 10 compared to owning one in the bottom 10 is not as different as in many other previous drafts and the Vikings own TWO picks in the bottom 10. There are no this is my guy! quarterbacks or wide receivers. Which is an excellent scenario for the Vikings. I feel that we are bound to have some great players slip to us in both the first and maybe second round. In addition, the Vikings have a draft pick in each of every round, including one more in the 4th (as early as the 5th selection in that round since we got the pick from the Lions) and one more pick in the 7th round.
My Minnesota Vikings' Mock Draft (All Rounds)
The following is based on best case scenarios and on which players I think will be available at the Vikings' selections. For more depth, I decided to make a type of big board for the first 4 picks with the probability of the player being available. For example, a player that I have ranked #3 at pick 23 will be ranked above the #1 ranked player at pick 25. Also, the big board changes as soon as the Vikings select a player since the player of that position instantly makes his position less important. However, wide receiver is the only position that's almost an exception. I wouldn't mind drafting 2 WR's with our first 3 picks.
Keep in mind, this is not a prediction on how the Vikings will draft, but rather how I would choose to draft as Minnesota. I also consider the depth at each position in the draft. To take Vikings' needs: e.g. cornerbacks, there are plenty of good quarterbacks that can be taken on Day 2. Or for example inside linebackers and wide receivers, there are no top 10 talents, but a lot of great potential outside the first 20 overall picks.
1. Round: pick 23
1. Cordarrelle Patterson WR The most intriguing receiver and ranked #1 by many. Best case scenario: Can be a much bigger Percy Harvin-type of player who can work the outside and red-zone better. That sounds fantastic and that also makes the chances of Patterson still being on the board slim. The key that could make Patterson slip is his limited reps and bust-liability. In particular the Rams not being interested as they pick twice before the Vikings and has even greater receiver needs.
2. Tavon Austin WR This is the selection in the mock draft. Before the Harvin-trade I didn't like the idea of spending a first rounder on any of these receivers. The whole top 5 WR class is foggy and it's hard to predict which one will be the best receiver in the NFL. But I've slowly softened up to these guys as the wide receiver class is undoubtedly the position I have studied the most this year. Percy Harvin slipped to the Vikings at 22 mainly because of size, but also character questions. Austin is considerably smaller, but has no character issues.
3. Xavier Rhodes CB In my eyes, most intriguing corner after Dee Milliner. Love his size, plays physical and is a great press corner who also had speed and quickness to stay with his man. He actually reminds me a lot of Vikings CB Chris Cook. Cook was arguably the most impressive corner at the combine the year the Vikings drafted him with their first pick. Rhodes had maybe an even more impressive workout. He ran the 40 in 4.4 seconds and jumped 40 inches in the air. In a division with Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall and Jordy Nelson. A physical corner standing at 6'2 with the best vertical jump among all DB's in the draft can really come in handy.
4.. Manti Te'o ILB I know I will be receiving comments on this one, but forget about the girl friend thing (that's irrelevant) and forget about the combine! Seems like everyone needs to be reminded that every year the combine is far from an accurate telling on how a player will fare in the NFL. Manti did not have a horrible combine as people will make it out to be. I don't care much about his 40 yard dash. His 10 yard-split in the 40 yard dash was good enough and that matters much more to me. He's not the athletic type. He doesn't look ripped to shreds (almost seems like that's simply the way Samoans are build), but there's still room to succeed for guys like him. He's a football player. That's all you really need... Besides, the Vikings' goal is to become an all-Irish team eventually.... right?
Round 1: pick 25
1. Tyler Eifert TE This pick will probably surprises you... and everybody else. We already have considerably money locked up at the TE position and we have a young TE who is starting to break into elite status (not to mention we already have two Notre Dame tight ends on the roster)... and to confuse you even more: I have Eifiert ranked this high because we need a wide receiver. ... But Eifert is a tight end! you say. On paper, yes, but the reality is not the same. Take a look at his game tape from Notre Dame and you'll see that he's lined up in the slot or even out wide a lot of times. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I'm willing to bet that the majority of Eifert's snaps are when he's in the slot or out wide. Forget that he's standing 6'6 and do not compare him to our Kyle Rudolph because they are very different type of players. Eifert is build more like a very big wide receiver and has the agility, fluid route-running, and pass-catching ability to match. He was one of the fastest and most explosive tight ends at the combine. A good comparison in the NFL is Jimmy Graham who is essentially an over-sized slot receiver with a tremendous pass-catching radius. In case you miraculously haven't figured out my point yet: Eifert will essentially be used as a wide receiver. Let him lose 10-15 pounds and we have the Sidney Rice-type of player we have long been missing, only bigger and more physical with basically no injury concerns. Not yet convinced? Then take it from two other sources that shares my view: Notre Dame, Tyler Eifert, and the 'Abnormally Tall WR' - The Only Colors
The Tape Never Lies: Tyler Eifert is really a big slot receiver | 100 Yards and Running | Blogs | theScore.com
2. Sylvester Williams DT This is a player who makes much more sense. The Vikings have been missing a big DT since Pat Williams retired and what's more fitting than drafting a young Williams. Sylvester is a talented player. My issue is that I honestly have a hard time figuring out who's the fourth best defensive tackle. On the positive side, there are a lot of good in this year's class. Kawann Short, another Williams, Jesse Williams, and Jonathan Hankins and Johnathan Jenkins (as if it wasn't hard enough, they have to have almost identical names).
3. Desmond Trufant CB Super fast cover corner with decent size who isn't afraid to get physical with the receiver (a bit too physical at times, but this can be coached). Trufant is a very solid player and I would definitely be happy to get him with our second pick. I would rate him higher if it wasn't for the deep and intriguing cornerback class.
Last edited by HEY; 04-08-2013 at 08:56 PM.
Round 2: pick 23
1. DeAndre Hopkins WR Crossing my fingers that his 40 speed will cause him to drop. I really like this player. He can remind a Vikings fan of Sidney Rice. Not elite top speed, but excellent after the quarterback has thrown the ball: And not to mention, the hair. I think Hopkins might have the best receiving skills of all players in the draft. Actually, he reminds me of a smaller version of Larry Fitzgerald. They make up for elite speed with great route-running, and they both have amazing hands in traffic and going on top of defensive backs.
2. Jesse Williams DT - Jesse Williams is more of a nose tackle and might fit our team in the Pat Williams-role better than most of the DT's in this draft. He is great against the run, but is knocked on athleticism. That could cause him to slip down late in round two on draft day, but he probably will not fall to the Vikings. On another note, have you seen the size of this guy's chest? It's enormous! He could very well be the strongest bench presser in this year's draft. There was talk about him beating the record at the Combine.
3. Kiko Alonso LB Physically, perhaps the most impressive inside linebacker with arguably the most upside. The knocks on him is limited experience, off-field incidents and injuries, but when you put on the film you will find it hard to not be impressed. There are no big wholes in his game. He is a complete player. He is even great against the pass with surprising ball-skills. Alonso might be the next Brian Urlacher, if not better. Yes, that's how good he can be!
4. David Amerson CB Had an amazing southmore year. Then an awful junior year before he declared for the draft. He might not be the best cover corner and plays too aggressive in cover (then again, that's what go him 13 INT's in his southmore year). However, he has great size, better speed than most think, plays physical, and is a tremendous ball-hawk.
Round 3: pick 23
1. Jordan Poyer CB Underrated, quick playmaker with great instincts and ball-skills. I think he will be pushed down because of a big strong class, but this might be stretching it. Good length and can also return punts.
2. Ryan Swope WR if we didn't get Tavon Austin in round one, Swope might be a nice replacement for Harvin. Swope's a bit bigger the Harvin, but he's also very quick and was a former running back so he brings some of that gritty running style. He is a great route runner and makes tough catches.
3. Joe Kruger DE A big man who might fit best as an end in the 3-4, but I he could be a nice fit in Minnesota to rotate in everywhere on the D-line. Younger brother of Paul Kruger who already has made a name for himself in the NFL.
Round 4: pick 5
Tyrann Mathieu CB We all should know who this guy is.
Round 4: pick 23
Cooper Taylor S Perhaps this year's most intriguing safety standing 6'5 at 230 lbs and running a 4.5 in the 40 yard dash. Is fierce against the run, but shows impressive ball-skills and range for a man his size. Could potentially team up with Harrison as the strong safety to form a young and physically intimidating duo in the NFL. Or replace Erin Henderson at outside linebacker and become the ultimate weapon against those big fast tight ends.
Round 5: pick 23
Conner Vernor WR He doesn't have great top end speed, but he's one of the best route runners in this draft with good hands. A productive receiver with decent size. Could be a nice #2 receiver working from both the outside and inside, but not a big deep threat.
Jordan Rodgers QB With time on the bench he might develop into something special. Shows nice touch on his passes, but does not posses a powerful arm. However, that can develop over time. A good character and hard worker. Oh... and he's also Aaron Rodgers' younger brother (how awesome would it be to snag Aaron's younger brother?)
Ace Sanders WR Very small, Wes Welker type of player. Exciting to watch with the ball in his hands and could be an instant Pro Bowler returning punts.
Brad Wing P Cluwe is underrated in the NFL and more famous for his mouth. I don't really mind, but he was a bit inconsistent last year. Wing has a powerful leg and great accuracy, and might be better at pinning down the opponent inside the 10 yard-line.
Sam McGuffie WR Only player I could think of that will most likely go undrafted. Originally the runningback who got famous for his high school tapes where he was jumping over players.
Apparently, I'm really high on receivers and corners in this draft. I actually don't feel that corner is as huge of a need as it might seem like, but this year have so many interesting prospects that's hard to pass upon. Linebacker is a need that's as big or even greater. Also, I apparently seem to be fan of bloodlines as three of the players have big brothers already playing on a high level in the NFL. I almost listed the sons of Cris Carter and Joe Montana under Undrafted, but I felt that would have been a bit of an overkill, especially when I know nothing about them except Nate Montana is bigger than his father (6'4) and threw for 19 TD's in 9 starts. Duron Carter seems to have academic problems.
Sons of Joe Montana, Cris Carter follow NFL dreams - NFL.com
Feel free to give your feedback down below.
Last edited by HEY; 04-09-2013 at 04:52 AM.
04-23-2013, 09:03 AM #5
Very nice layout.
Couple of quick questions....
1. Why Austin? Is he that dynamic that you would grab him even though Jarius Wright showed that he could hold down that spot? Why not wait until the later rounds and grab one of the other WRs that bring the same thing to the table that are a bit bigger?
2. I've warmed to the Teo pick if it happens (actually have him going to the Vikes in mine) and really think that if we can get a true 1 tech, he will be fine. The "Ourlads" scouting magazine actually goes into some nice detail that he played out of position last year as ND ran alot of the 4-2 vice 4-3 scheme.
I don't follow college ball that much to agree or disagree with that, but it does kindof make sense.Many many thanks to my talented friend Jos for the new Sig.
1. I love Tavon Austin! I mean, how can you not love this player after watching some of his games? Speaking of pure playmaking abilites, Austin is the biggest one in this whole draft. And the fact that we traded Harvin away just makes this a perfect opportunity to replace him with someone that's not gonna cause problems off the field.
Like Harvin was, Austin's probably the fastest guy in the whole draft and he can return kicks, play wide receiver, and take handoffs. The only exception is that Austin is probably not as ideal as Harvin to run it between the tackles. To answer your question: I think Austin is unique in the way that he's the best type of player since Harvin was drafted. Remember Harvin was a MVP candidate before Adrian Peterson ran away with that tittle (no pun intended). Having someone like that again would be great.
What worries me is Austin's small size. His height is one thing, but he has a small body that I'm not sure can withstand the NFL punishment. There are very few successful 170-ish pounds receivers in this league. On the positive side, this is what can make him fall all the way to the Vikings. I'm sure if he was 6 feet tall and 200 pounds he would be a top 5 pick. but I've not heard that he has missed one game in his career.
2. Glad you're warming up By the looks of it, I think Manti Te'o is a good possibility for the Vikings in the first (but I hope it's with the second pick).
It's correct what you are saying. Te'o played alot as a linebacker in a 4-2 scheme, but from what I've seen, Notre Dame also likes to mix it up a little. Hmmm... I HOPE he played out of position last year because if middle linebacker is his strongest position then he can be even better on the Vikings.
I donate one million to one lucky guy on this site if I get all the picks right! (although there are some I would like to adjust a little right now)