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  1. #1
    cogitans is offline Jersey Retired
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    Draft bustpercentage by position

    Now there has been talk in a couple of thread about how likely it is that a player busts given what position he plays. Therefore I have stolen these stats from my danish football site. The reason I don't link is because it is in danish anyway.

    The statistic is made by looking at the top 20 players picked in the draft from 1995-2003, and determining wether he has lived up to his potential as a top 20 pick, or if he has been a bust.

    Of course it's a subjectiv approach, but it is the closest there is to a statistic I think.

    1. Offensive tackles (14 of 20) – 70 %
    2. Outside linebackers (9 of
    14) – 64 %
    3. Quarterbacks (8 of
    16) – 50 %
    4. Cornerbacks (8 of 16) – 50 %
    5. Defensive tackles (9 of
    19) – 47 %
    6. Running backs (9 of
    20) – 45 %
    7. Defensive ends (13 of
    30) – 43 %
    8. Wide receivers (12 of
    29) – 41 %

    Other position is not included because of to few players picked; tight ends (6) offensive guards (5) middle linebackers (3) safeties (3) kicker (1).

    So you can take it as you want. It's true that only 41% if WRs pans out, but then also 50% of QBs bust. If you really want a hit player you should take an OT or an OLB

    What does that all mean? Maybe you include this when you evaluate your direction in the 1st round, but I still think you have to trust that you have the scouts that can sort the good from the bad.

    Thanks to PPE for the sig.

  2. #2
    PurplePeopleEaters's Avatar
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    Re: Draft bustpercentage by position

    And that proves that the whole draft is a crap shoot. You could draft a tackle and end up with a Robert Gallery or draft a WR and get a Larry Fitzgerald.

  3. #3
    cogitans is offline Jersey Retired
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    Re: Draft bustpercentage by position

    "PurplePeopleEaters" wrote:
    And that proves that the whole draft is a crap shoot. You could draft a tackle and end up with a Robert Gallery or draft a WR and get a Larry Fitzgerald.
    You must believe in Studwell

    Thanks to PPE for the sig.

  4. #4
    BloodyHorns82's Avatar
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    Re: Draft bustpercentage by position

    Might as well trade away the first rounder for a proven vet with those statistics...geesh.
    Not very promising, but probably pretty accurate.

  5. #5
    davike's Avatar
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    Re: Draft bustpercentage by position

    thats very helpful, thanks cogitans!! i think we should pick up a proven vet via free agency and still draft a WR, childress and wilf believe in building a team through the draft. if we did trade for a vet i would want him to be still young, fitzgerald would be amazing.

    Thanks Josdin00 for the sig!

  6. #6
    BloodyHorns82's Avatar
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    Re: Draft bustpercentage by position

    I don't see how we can't draft a WR.
    With the shape our WR corps is in right now, there is no way in my opinion that free agency will bring it up to the level we need it at.
    Especially for young quarterback who could use all the extra help we can throw at him.
    I think we'll need to address the WR problem through both draft and FA.

  7. #7
    Mr. Purple's Avatar
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    Re: Draft bustpercentage by position

    "PurplePeopleEaters" wrote:
    And that proves that the whole draft is a crap shoot. You could draft a tackle and end up with a Robert Gallery or draft a WR and get a Larry Fitzgerald.
    Exactly! And thats why we draft all of these players, potential.I beleive that a coaching staff has just as much to do with a player's success, as the player does.

    Theres NOTHING greater then a Florida Gator!
    "I promise everyone this. When Childress is let go in two years I can honestly say this.
    "I am not surprised"."-PurplePackerEater

  8. #8
    davike's Avatar
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    Re: Draft bustpercentage by position

    "WilliamsonOfTroy" wrote:
    "PurplePeopleEaters" wrote:
    And that proves that the whole draft is a crap shoot. You could draft a tackle and end up with a Robert Gallery or draft a WR and get a Larry Fitzgerald.
    Exactly! And thats why we draft all of these players, potential.I beleive that a coaching staff has just as much to do with a player's success, as the player does.
    yeah i agree, there is about a 40 percent chance that you will end up with a fitzgerald or a Johnson. cagitans is not dissing the draft, he is just stating stats. i love the draft, i love watching rookies develop. you can't argue with stats.

    Thanks Josdin00 for the sig!

  9. #9
    cogitans is offline Jersey Retired
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    Re: Draft bustpercentage by position

    There can be many reasons why drafts don't reach their potential. Serious injury, a team that doesn't maximises his abilities, or underperformance.

    Players in this research that has reached their ability; Peyton Manning, Ruben Brown, Warren Sapp og Takeo Spikes, and players that has disapointed; Michael Westbrook, Regan Upshaw, Tim Biakabutuka og David Terrell.

    Thanks to PPE for the sig.

  10. #10
    Mystophales is offline Rookie
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    Re: Draft bustpercentage by position

    "WilliamsonOfTroy" wrote:
    "PurplePeopleEaters" wrote:
    And that proves that the whole draft is a crap shoot. You could draft a tackle and end up with a Robert Gallery or draft a WR and get a Larry Fitzgerald.
    Exactly! And thats why we draft all of these players, potential.I beleive that a coaching staff has just as much to do with a player's success, as the player does.
    That is a very good point there. Problem is we have Childress... ;D

    Once agin anyone have Jimmy Johnson's number? He has already proven what he can do with multiple Viking picks...lol


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