Colts coach Jim Caldwell said the credit for those picks goes to the front office, led by President Bill Polian, general manager Chris Polian and director of player personnel Tom Telesco. Caldwell is amazed by the research and knowledge they gather, which he says negates the disadvantage of picking late.

"It's uncanny just in terms of what they can predict, what they know," Caldwell said in March at the NFL owners meetings. "The big thing that I notice is that they have a real good sense of what everyone else's needs are. Those guys have a great sense. There may be a guy on the board that I'm looking at and Bill will say, 'They're not going to take him. He doesn't fit what they're looking for.' Not only do they know the schemes but they also know the people involved. That, to me, is unbelievable."
"You try to cover every single scenario, and I think we do," Caldwell said, adding that the front office narrows the number of players the Colts will have a chance to select. That allows the team to focus on a select group of players and put them in a pecking order so the Colts will be prepared when they make their selection.

"Through experience, through knowledge, through understanding exactly what everyone else is doing in terms of their needs, there are very few surprises that happen to us on draft day," Caldwell said.

The key to any draft is preparation, according to Kansas City Chiefs general manager Scott Pioli, who was known for his wise personnel moves while in charge of the New England Patriots for most of the past decade.
Colts' success in recent drafts shows Vikings there are gems to be found late in first round
The Colts FO pukes must be using my mock drafts to guess at what other teams needs are.

On a side note, maybe this isn't as much of a gamble as some believe.