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  1. #11
    jargomcfargo's Avatar
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    Re: Another Former Packers Quarterback To Wear Purple?

    Though Midge may not have the most tactful way of presenting it to you,eg. hammering you with facts, the evidence is overwhelming that later round quarterbacks have significantly lower probabilities of success.

    In fact, here is an article suggesting that the odds of success begin to diminish significantly after the second quarterback taken.

    http://rob-rang.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/13682485/27790157

    "Many fans and media members believe that "bargains" will be found in the late first or second round (Washington's Jake Locker, FLorida State's Christian Ponder, Arkansas' Ryan Mallett) or later in the draft (Nevada's Colin Kaepernick, TCU's Andy Dalton, or Alabama's Greg McElroy).

    History tells us, however, that it's unlikely you'll find an elite starter, or even a reliable one, once you've passed the top two quarterbacks in any draft."
    “What takes a quarterback to the next level is not arm strength or mobility or any of that stuff. It’s the ability to play on critical downs. Manage third downs, or red zones or four-minute or two-minute situations"
    Dilfer

  2. #12
    Marrdro's Avatar
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    Re: Another Former Packers Quarterback To Wear Purple?

    Quote Originally Posted by "jargomcfargo" #1093520
    Though Midge may not have the most tactful way of presenting it to you, the evidence is overwhelming that later round quarterbacks have significantly lower probabilities of success.

    In fact, here is an article suggesting that the odds of success begin to diminish significantly after the second quarterback taken.

    http://rob-rang.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/13682485/27790157

    "Many fans and media members believe that "bargains" will be found in the late first or second round (Washington's Jake Locker, FLorida State's Christian Ponder, Arkansas' Ryan Mallett) or later in the draft (Nevada's Colin Kaepernick, TCU's Andy Dalton, or Alabama's Greg McElroy).

    History tells us, however, that it's unlikely you'll find an elite starter, or even a reliable one, once you've passed the top two quarterbacks in any draft."
    I don't dispute that.

    My point is that even though they have a better chance at success, that can be said for almost every player taken and most importantly, there have been ALOT of successfull QB's taken that weren't in the first round, just like there have been alot of unsuccessfull QB's taken in the first round.

    So as not to get slapped around for having a bad memory, I went to Drafthistory.com and pulled data back to 1990.

    2010 1 1 1 1 Sam Bradford Rams Oklahoma Yes
    2 1 25 25 Tim Tebow Broncos Florida No
    2009 1 1 1 1 Matthew Stafford Lions Georgia Yes
    2 1 5 5 Mark Sanchez Jets USC Yes
    3 1 17 17 Josh Freeman Buccaneers Kansas State Yes
    2008 1 1 3 3 Matt Ryan Falcons Boston College Yes
    2 1 18 18 Joe Flacco Ravens Delaware Yes
    2007 1 1 1 1 JaMarcus Russell Raiders Louisiana State No
    2 1 22 22 Brady Quinn Browns Notre Dame No
    2006 1 1 3 3 Vince Young Titans Texas No
    2 1 10 10 Matt Leinart Cardinals USC No
    3 1 11 11 Jay Cutler Broncos Vanderbilt Yes
    2005 1 1 1 1 Alex D. Smith 49ers Utah No
    2 1 24 24 Aaron Rodgers Packers California Yes
    3 1 25 25 Jason Campbell Redskins Auburn No
    2004 1 1 1 1 Eli Manning Chargers Mississippi Yes
    2 1 4 4 Philip Rivers Giants North Carolina State Yes
    3 1 11 11 Ben Roethlisberger Steelers Miami (OH) Yes
    4 1 22 22 J.P. Losman Bills Tulane No
    2003 1 1 1 1 Carson Palmer Bengals USC Yes
    2 1 7 7 Byron Leftwich Jaguars Marshall No
    3 1 19 19 Kyle Boller Ravens California No
    4 1 22 22 Rex Grossman Bears Florida No
    2002 1 1 1 1 David Carr Texans Fresno State No
    2 1 3 3 Joey Harrington Lions Oregon No
    3 1 32 32 Patrick Ramsey Redskins Tulane No
    2001 1 1 1 1 Michael Vick Falcons Virginia Tech Yes
    2000 1 1 18 18 Chad Pennington Jets Marshall No
    1999 1 1 1 1 Tim Couch Browns Kentucky No
    2 1 2 2 Donovan McNabb Eagles Syracuse Yes
    3 1 3 3 Akili Smith Bengals Oregon No
    4 1 11 11 Daunte Culpepper Vikings Central Florida Yes
    5 1 12 12 Cade McNown Bears UCLA No
    1998 1 1 1 1 Peyton Manning Colts Tennessee Yes
    2 1 2 2 Ryan Leaf Chargers Washington State No
    1997 1 1 26 26 Jim Druckenmiller 49ers Virginia Tech No
    1996 1 2 12 42 Tony Banks Rams Michigan State No
    1995 1 1 3 3 Steve McNair Oilers Alcorn State Yes
    2 1 5 5 Kerry Collins Panthers Penn State Yes
    1994 1 1 3 3 Heath Shuler Redskins Tennessee No
    2 1 6 6 Trent Dilfer Buccaneers Fresno State Yes
    1993 1 1 1 1 Drew Bledsoe Patriots Washington State Yes
    2 1 2 2 Rick Mirer Seahawks Notre Dame No
    1992 1 1 6 6 David Klingler Bengals Houston No
    2 1 25 25 Tommy Maddox Broncos UCLA No
    1991 1 1 16 16 Dan McGwire Seahawks San Diego State No
    2 1 24 24 Todd Marinovich Raiders USC No
    1990 1 1 1 1 Jeff George Colts Illinois Yes
    2 1 7 7 Andre Ware Lions Houston No
    49 QB's have been taken in the first round of the draft. 28 of them have been busts or don't meet the criteria established by Midg and Bleed.

    My point, still stands, that if we elect to wait and take a guy in the 4th round, we shouldn't automatically throw him under the bus. that QB's can be found in the latter rounds as apposed to having to find one in the first round still stands. Its happened, just like its happened that guys taken in the first round don't always work out.

    If we elect to wait and take a guy in the 4th round, we shouldn't automatically throw him under the bus.
    Many many thanks to my talented friend Jos for the new Sig.http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v343/josdin00/Vikings/Marrdro_sig.jpg

  3. #13
    i_bleed_purple's Avatar
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    Re: Another Former Packers Quarterback To Wear Purple?

    Quote Originally Posted by "Marrdro" #1093524
    Quote Originally Posted by "jargomcfargo" #1093520
    Though Midge may not have the most tactful way of presenting it to you, the evidence is overwhelming that later round quarterbacks have significantly lower probabilities of success.

    In fact, here is an article suggesting that the odds of success begin to diminish significantly after the second quarterback taken.

    http://rob-rang.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/13682485/27790157

    "Many fans and media members believe that "bargains" will be found in the late first or second round (Washington's Jake Locker, FLorida State's Christian Ponder, Arkansas' Ryan Mallett) or later in the draft (Nevada's Colin Kaepernick, TCU's Andy Dalton, or Alabama's Greg McElroy).

    History tells us, however, that it's unlikely you'll find an elite starter, or even a reliable one, once you've passed the top two quarterbacks in any draft."
    I don't dispute that.

    My point is that even though they have a better chance at success, that can be said for almost every player taken and most importantly, there have been ALOT of successfull QB's taken that weren't in the first round, just like there have been alot of unsuccessfull QB's taken in the first round.

    So as not to get slapped around for having a bad memory, I went to Drafthistory.com and pulled data back to 1990.

    2010 1 1 1 1 Sam Bradford Rams Oklahoma Yes
    2 1 25 25 Tim Tebow Broncos Florida No
    2009 1 1 1 1 Matthew Stafford Lions Georgia Yes
    2 1 5 5 Mark Sanchez Jets USC Yes
    3 1 17 17 Josh Freeman Buccaneers Kansas State Yes
    2008 1 1 3 3 Matt Ryan Falcons Boston College Yes
    2 1 18 18 Joe Flacco Ravens Delaware Yes
    2007 1 1 1 1 JaMarcus Russell Raiders Louisiana State No
    2 1 22 22 Brady Quinn Browns Notre Dame No
    2006 1 1 3 3 Vince Young Titans Texas No
    2 1 10 10 Matt Leinart Cardinals USC No
    3 1 11 11 Jay Cutler Broncos Vanderbilt Yes
    2005 1 1 1 1 Alex D. Smith 49ers Utah No
    2 1 24 24 Aaron Rodgers Packers California Yes
    3 1 25 25 Jason Campbell Redskins Auburn No
    2004 1 1 1 1 Eli Manning Chargers Mississippi Yes
    2 1 4 4 Philip Rivers Giants North Carolina State Yes
    3 1 11 11 Ben Roethlisberger Steelers Miami (OH) Yes
    4 1 22 22 J.P. Losman Bills Tulane No
    2003 1 1 1 1 Carson Palmer Bengals USC Yes
    2 1 7 7 Byron Leftwich Jaguars Marshall No
    3 1 19 19 Kyle Boller Ravens California No
    4 1 22 22 Rex Grossman Bears Florida No
    2002 1 1 1 1 David Carr Texans Fresno State No
    2 1 3 3 Joey Harrington Lions Oregon No
    3 1 32 32 Patrick Ramsey Redskins Tulane No
    2001 1 1 1 1 Michael Vick Falcons Virginia Tech Yes
    2000 1 1 18 18 Chad Pennington Jets Marshall No
    1999 1 1 1 1 Tim Couch Browns Kentucky No
    2 1 2 2 Donovan McNabb Eagles Syracuse Yes
    3 1 3 3 Akili Smith Bengals Oregon No
    4 1 11 11 Daunte Culpepper Vikings Central Florida Yes
    5 1 12 12 Cade McNown Bears UCLA No
    1998 1 1 1 1 Peyton Manning Colts Tennessee Yes
    2 1 2 2 Ryan Leaf Chargers Washington State No
    1997 1 1 26 26 Jim Druckenmiller 49ers Virginia Tech No
    1996 1 2 12 42 Tony Banks Rams Michigan State No
    1995 1 1 3 3 Steve McNair Oilers Alcorn State Yes
    2 1 5 5 Kerry Collins Panthers Penn State Yes
    1994 1 1 3 3 Heath Shuler Redskins Tennessee No
    2 1 6 6 Trent Dilfer Buccaneers Fresno State Yes
    1993 1 1 1 1 Drew Bledsoe Patriots Washington State Yes
    2 1 2 2 Rick Mirer Seahawks Notre Dame No
    1992 1 1 6 6 David Klingler Bengals Houston No
    2 1 25 25 Tommy Maddox Broncos UCLA No
    1991 1 1 16 16 Dan McGwire Seahawks San Diego State No
    2 1 24 24 Todd Marinovich Raiders USC No
    1990 1 1 1 1 Jeff George Colts Illinois Yes
    2 1 7 7 Andre Ware Lions Houston No
    49 QB's have been taken in the first round of the draft. 28 of them have been busts or don't meet the criteria established by Midg and Bleed.

    My point, still stands, that if we elect to wait and take a guy in the 4th round, we shouldn't automatically throw him under the bus. that QB's can be found in the latter rounds as apposed to having to find one in the first round still stands. Its happened, just like its happened that guys taken in the first round don't always work out.

    If we elect to wait and take a guy in the 4th round, we shouldn't automatically throw him under the bus.
    And my point, that if we're a team in desperate need of a QB, we shouldn't ignore the first round and put all our eggs in the project basket. That's a great way to screw yourself.

  4. #14
    Marrdro's Avatar
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    Re: Another Former Packers Quarterback To Wear Purple?

    Quote Originally Posted by "i_bleed_purple" #1093529
    And my point, that if we're a team in desperate need of a QB, we shouldn't ignore the first round and put all our eggs in the project basket. That's a great way to screw yourself.
    Again, I agree.

    IMHO, thats why we are in the mess we are in now. Fooley should have give what they were asking for to take Culter.
    Many many thanks to my talented friend Jos for the new Sig.http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v343/josdin00/Vikings/Marrdro_sig.jpg

  5. #15
    Purple Floyd's Avatar
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    Re: Another Former Packers Quarterback To Wear Purple?

    I was hoping this was going to be about mark brunell

  6. #16
    Marrdro's Avatar
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    Re: Another Former Packers Quarterback To Wear Purple?

    Quote Originally Posted by "Purple Floyd" #1093536
    I was hoping this was going to be about mark brunell
    I wish I had your sense of humor my friend. :laugh:
    Many many thanks to my talented friend Jos for the new Sig.http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v343/josdin00/Vikings/Marrdro_sig.jpg

  7. #17
    Purple Floyd's Avatar
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    Re: Another Former Packers Quarterback To Wear Purple?

    Quote Originally Posted by "Marrdro" #1093539
    Quote Originally Posted by "Purple Floyd" #1093536
    I was hoping this was going to be about mark brunell
    I wish I had your sense of humor my friend. :laugh:
    Yeah, it's a curse lol.

  8. #18
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    Re: Another Former Packers Quarterback To Wear Purple?

    Quote Originally Posted by "Marrdro" #1093482
    and you would have all the guys like Bleed who think QB's don't work out if they aren't taken in the first round cause Matt was taken someplace like 180 or 190 if memory serves.
    What has Matt done?

  9. #19
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    Re: Another Former Packers Quarterback To Wear Purple?

    Quote Originally Posted by "marstc09" #1093699
    Quote Originally Posted by "Marrdro" #1093482
    and you would have all the guys like Bleed who think QB's don't work out if they aren't taken in the first round cause Matt was taken someplace like 180 or 190 if memory serves.
    What has Matt done?
    Most memorable: "We want the Ball! Were gonna win!" Oops.......

  10. #20
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    Re: Another Former Packers Quarterback To Wear Purple?

    Quote Originally Posted by "slavinator" #1093704
    Quote Originally Posted by "marstc09" #1093699
    Quote Originally Posted by "Marrdro" #1093482
    and you would have all the guys like Bleed who think QB's don't work out if they aren't taken in the first round cause Matt was taken someplace like 180 or 190 if memory serves.
    What has Matt done?
    Most memorable: "We want the Ball! Were gonna win!" Oops.......
    He also won the NFC Championship and played in a superbowl..


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