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  1. #11
    bsmithberkley is offline Pro-Bowler
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    Re:2010 Draft Prediction - How does your's compare?

    Marrdro wrote:

    I would love to sit down over a beer or two and listen to your weighting factor though.
    Its pretty straightforward, take all of the players over the last 6 years who got measured on all of the Performance tests and are now "CONTRIBUTING" in the NFL.

    Rank them for each category and come up with a combined score. In this case I used a 50% bonus for weight and a 50% bonus for overall rating, otherwise all factors are judged equally.

    Player..............Score.......Rank
    Montario Hardesty....123........1
    Adrian Peterson......133........2
    Ben Tate.............140........3
    Donald Brown.........143........4
    Carnell Williams.....145........5
    Joseph Addai.........182........6
    Jerious Norwood......189........7
    Ronnie Brown.........198........8
    Jahvid Best..........201........9
    Matt Forte'..........207........10
    Marshawn Lynch.......210........11
    Jerome Harrison......216........12
    Jamaal Charles.......224........13
    Knowshon Moreno......227........14
    Felix Jones..........230........15
    Ray Rice.............233........16
    Brandon Jacobs.......235........17
    Shonn Greene.........240........18
    Kevin Smith..........249........19
    Maurice Drew.........252........20
    Ryan Grant...........270........21
    Ian Johnson..........277........22
    Leon Washington......280........23
    Ahmad Bradshaw.......293........24
    Darren Sproles.......310........25
    Jonathan Dwyer.......311........26

    For my own comfort I "reasonably" vary the weight of some of the softer points to see the variance in rank. Hardesty never goes lower than 3. Peterson never goes lower than 2.

    Obviously this is not an "End All" indicator of future performance (far too many Rbs skip one or more drills), but, it certainly indicates athletic ability. Remember, I am only looking for the one or two "Extreme" athletes each year.

    Just 2 Notes:

    1, I found out that CBS listed Tate's 40 time as 4.34 when it was actually 4.43, so I am baking off on him a little bit.

    2, Dwyer set a lot of red flags with his poor performance...last in almost every category measured except weight and broad jump (he only beat L Washington and D Sproles), gotta wonder what he did the night before and if he does better at a Pro day.
    None

  2. #12
    bsmithberkley is offline Pro-Bowler
    Join Date
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    333

    Re:2010 Draft Prediction - How does your's compare?

    Marrdro wrote:

    I would love to sit down over a beer or two and listen to your weighting factor though.
    Its pretty straightforward, take all of the players over the last 6 years who got measured on all of the Performance tests and are now "CONTRIBUTING" in the NFL.

    Rank them for each category and come up with a combined score. In this case I used a 50% bonus for weight and a 50% bonus for overall rating, otherwise all factors are judged equally.

    Player..............Score.......Rank
    Montario Hardesty....123........1
    Adrian Peterson......133........2
    Ben Tate.............140........3
    Donald Brown.........143........4
    Carnell Williams.....145........5
    Joseph Addai.........182........6
    Jerious Norwood......189........7
    Ronnie Brown.........198........8
    Jahvid Best..........201........9
    Matt Forte'..........207........10
    Marshawn Lynch.......210........11
    Jerome Harrison......216........12
    Jamaal Charles.......224........13
    Knowshon Moreno......227........14
    Felix Jones..........230........15
    Ray Rice.............233........16
    Brandon Jacobs.......235........17
    Shonn Greene.........240........18
    Kevin Smith..........249........19
    Maurice Drew.........252........20
    Ryan Grant...........270........21
    Ian Johnson..........277........22
    Leon Washington......280........23
    Ahmad Bradshaw.......293........24
    Darren Sproles.......310........25
    Jonathan Dwyer.......311........26

    For my own comfort I "reasonably" vary the weight of some of the softer points to see the variance in rank. Hardesty never goes lower than 3. Peterson never goes lower than 2.

    Obviously this is not an "End All" indicator of future performance (far too many Rbs skip one or more drills), but, it certainly indicates athletic ability. Remember, I am only looking for the one or two "Extreme" athletes each year.

    Just 2 Notes:

    1, I found out that CBS listed Tate's 40 time as 4.34 when it was actually 4.43, so I am baking off on him a little bit.

    2, Dwyer set a lot of red flags with his poor performance...last in almost every category measured except weight and broad jump (he only beat L Washington and D Sproles), gotta wonder what he did the night before and if he does better at a Pro day.
    None

  3. #13
    Marrdro's Avatar
    Marrdro is offline Beware My Spreadsheet, Bitches!
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    Dec 1969
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    Re:2010 Draft Prediction - How does your's compare?

    bsmithberkley wrote:
    OOPS, had a chilly moment!
    No worries my friend. All of us make a goof every now and then.

    Drop Berrian from the scenario. It looks like an obvious run package, but, AD and Hardesty will prove to be 2 of the best pass catching RB's in the NFL next year...Deadly in the West Coast offense, causing Defenses to play smaller, spread out more near the line of scrimmage. And having Two real threats at RB would "spread the defense more"/"split its focus". I wouldn't want them in together every play!

    Its just the Idea of so much dynamic flexibility in the backfield...AD is great, but if he is the only RB the defense has to worry about/prepare for it makes the defenses we face better than it should be.
    Again, I am tracking with why you want to go split backs, but if you are gonna pass, why not have a pass catcher in there, i.e. another WR?

    BB LT LG C RG RT PH El Syd
    QB TE

    RB

    Still spreads them out and if you continually pass as well as run out of it, you are not predictable.

    The Vikings were way too 1-dimensional out of the backfield last year. I don't believe we can count on Young or Johnson to be the kind of RB2 that opposing defenses have to make adjustments for in their practices/game planning/personnel choices and it doesn't look lIke we will land one in FA.

    Therefore, I look towards the draft for that RB and we should go early.

    In addition, the Offense only has two needs (Areas were they could actually get better) for next year. RB and OLine Depth/Maybe a starter. We will have a lot more flexibility of addressing the o-line than we will in addressing the RB situation.

    Quality RBs, even RB2s are prized commodities in the NFL. I can only think of 4 teams with that kind of talent (CAR, NYJ, BAL, DAL, NO) and they are 5of the top 7 rushing offenses when you measure by yds/carry.
    Why early? I agree that they will probably bring in multiple backs to work out, but I just don't see them going early for one when you can get almost the same back in the later rounds.

    Truth of the matter is, most teams feel that way as we are starting to see RBs drop down draft boards more and more as later round guys become more successfull over the last 2 years or so.

    Hot commodity? Sure, but not at the top of the boards my friend.

    Last year there were 3 RB's taken in the first, 1 in the second, 2 in the 3rd and then, 4 in the 4th, 3 in the 5th, 4 in the 6th and 5 in the 7th.

    Thats alot of RB's taken in the bottom half of the draft.

    2008 had 5 taken in the first round, but then only 1 in the 2nd, 3 in the third 1 in the 4th, 3 in the 5th, 5 in the 6th and 5 more in the 7th.



    We ranked Tied for 19th in yards/carry! 19TH! Did I say that right? Freakin 19th!

    I hate to say it, while Chester was a great team player and good out of the backfield on Screens he was not good running the ball last year. His stats dropped yet again last year:

    1st Down.....................3.1 yds/carry
    2nd Down.....................3.3 yds/carry
    Road.........................3.0 yds/carry
    Close Games +/- 7 in 4th ....2.3yds/carry
    Couple of things.

    1. That is what Chester was here or, running screens out of the backfield. I get the strange feeling you are looking for a backup to AD who will take some of the load off of him.

    I'm not so sure we need to do that as he only ran the ball 315 times last year. In 2008 he had 363 carries. Sometimes less is not more when it comes to a work horse.

    Nope, I think what we need is a cat like Chester who can get you 100 or so carries a year. Just enough to lighten the load a bit, but not enough to detract from the momentum a back develops over a game.

    2. Interesting point on ypc. I got them at 21 with 4.1. Dallas is in second with 4.8. Not alot of difference if you ask me. Not enough to worry about fixing anything anyways.

    Washington Post Stats


    Heck, a hurt LG, a new C and a new RT would probably be a better area to look for a drop off rather than the RB position.


    Chester also was not the ideal RB to cass passes fro Favre. I hate to say anything bad about Favre (been a fan since I listened to his first college game on Radio), but with his quick release/velocity he has a tendency to have those passes go high and a big back with better body control who presents a larger/taller target is better suited for the spot.
    Lost me there. Never knew you added RB's on teams with respect to size so that they were better suited to catching passes from the QB. I always thought the QB was supposed to take a bit off of it.

    JK, We did see him throw it high and hot one time to Chester, but the main concensus on here was that I was just being knit picky.

    In the end, not sure this is an issue.

    Adrian is a great player, but, we need another solid back if we are going to have an elite running offense again without burning AP to crisp in the process. And I for one would like to have APs talent around for a long time to come at the end of the season come playoff time. And with another solid RB AP will be much fresher in the playoffs.
    Run him until he drops. Then, go out and draft another one.

    Seriously, I could give a squat about burning a player out. They get good damn money to perform. Run him 300-325 times a year and be ready with another cat to get 100 or so reps a year.

    I really liked seeing AP develop as a pass catcher last year...getting a second RB who is a threat will let AP continue to round out his game. This was neglected until last year. He is 6-2 with great athletic ability, great swivel in his hips, very good extension for a RB. He is built to be a great receiver too, and did I mention that Brett has a tendency to get the ball high to his running backs. Another year of working with Favre and developing his receiving skills should solidify AP as one of the Elite receiving RBs in the game.

    Look at what he accomplished in year 1 with Favre:

    ...............Rec...Yds....Avg
    A Peterson.....43....436....10.14<<<1st yr w Favre
    C Johnson......50....503....10.06
    R Rice.........78....702....9.00
    M Forte........57....471....8.26
    F Gore.........52....406....7.81
    M J-Drew.......53....374....7.06
    S Jackson......51....322....6.31

    TAKE THAT CJ!
    AD fixes his pass protection issues and I think our problem is solved. Course that would up his reps a bit.

    Still need a backup.


    There are a few (surprisingly few) 3rd down only backs with better numbers, but, I think it's more appropriate to look at the primary running backs.

    Its those extra dimensions that makes great offenses happen. Look at the Vikings last year, sure the running game had a downturn, but the overall performance went way up because of those extra dimensions.

    And the next dimension the Vikings should explore is a Complimentary back to AP. Someone else has got to touch the ball at RB, it may as well be one who can be effective at all times in the game and complements AP at the same time.
    Wait a minute now. First you say we slipped last year, and then you come back with our performance went up.

    I think I know what your saying, however, I also don't think you are attributing any OL play in your stats.

    I guess this qualifies as a rant...
    Not a rant my friend. Just some damn good football discussion points.
    Many many thanks to my talented friend Jos for the new Sig.http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v343/josdin00/Vikings/Marrdro_sig.jpg

  4. #14
    bsmithberkley is offline Pro-Bowler
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    333

    Re:2010 Draft Prediction - How does your's compare?

    Marrdro wrote:
    bsmithberkley wrote:
    OOPS, had a chilly moment!
    No worries my friend. All of us make a goof every now and then.

    Drop Berrian from the scenario. It looks like an obvious run package, but, AD and Hardesty will prove to be 2 of the best pass catching RB's in the NFL next year...Deadly in the West Coast offense, causing Defenses to play smaller, spread out more near the line of scrimmage. And having Two real threats at RB would "spread the defense more"/"split its focus". I wouldn't want them in together every play!

    Its just the Idea of so much dynamic flexibility in the backfield...AD is great, but if he is the only RB the defense has to worry about/prepare for it makes the defenses we face better than it should be.
    Again, I am tracking with why you want to go split backs, but if you are gonna pass, why not have a pass catcher in there, i.e. another WR?

    BB LT LG C RG RT PH El Syd
    QB TE

    RB

    Still spreads them out and if you continually pass as well as run out of it, you are not predictable.

    The Vikings were way too 1-dimensional out of the backfield last year. I don't believe we can count on Young or Johnson to be the kind of RB2 that opposing defenses have to make adjustments for in their practices/game planning/personnel choices and it doesn't look lIke we will land one in FA.

    Therefore, I look towards the draft for that RB and we should go early.

    In addition, the Offense only has two needs (Areas were they could actually get better) for next year. RB and OLine Depth/Maybe a starter. We will have a lot more flexibility of addressing the o-line than we will in addressing the RB situation.

    Quality RBs, even RB2s are prized commodities in the NFL. I can only think of 4 teams with that kind of talent (CAR, NYJ, BAL, DAL, NO) and they are 5of the top 7 rushing offenses when you measure by yds/carry.
    Why early? I agree that they will probably bring in multiple backs to work out, but I just don't see them going early for one when you can get almost the same back in the later rounds.

    Truth of the matter is, most teams feel that way as we are starting to see RBs drop down draft boards more and more as later round guys become more successfull over the last 2 years or so.

    Hot commodity? Sure, but not at the top of the boards my friend.

    Last year there were 3 RB's taken in the first, 1 in the second, 2 in the 3rd and then, 4 in the 4th, 3 in the 5th, 4 in the 6th and 5 in the 7th.

    Thats alot of RB's taken in the bottom half of the draft.

    2008 had 5 taken in the first round, but then only 1 in the 2nd, 3 in the third 1 in the 4th, 3 in the 5th, 5 in the 6th and 5 more in the 7th.



    We ranked Tied for 19th in yards/carry! 19TH! Did I say that right? Freakin 19th!

    I hate to say it, while Chester was a great team player and good out of the backfield on Screens he was not good running the ball last year. His stats dropped yet again last year:

    1st Down.....................3.1 yds/carry
    2nd Down.....................3.3 yds/carry
    Road.........................3.0 yds/carry
    Close Games +/- 7 in 4th ....2.3yds/carry
    Couple of things.

    1. That is what Chester was here or, running screens out of the backfield. I get the strange feeling you are looking for a backup to AD who will take some of the load off of him.

    I'm not so sure we need to do that as he only ran the ball 315 times last year. In 2008 he had 363 carries. Sometimes less is not more when it comes to a work horse.

    Nope, I think what we need is a cat like Chester who can get you 100 or so carries a year. Just enough to lighten the load a bit, but not enough to detract from the momentum a back develops over a game.

    2. Interesting point on ypc. I got them at 21 with 4.1. Dallas is in second with 4.8. Not alot of difference if you ask me. Not enough to worry about fixing anything anyways.

    Washington Post Stats


    Heck, a hurt LG, a new C and a new RT would probably be a better area to look for a drop off rather than the RB position.


    Chester also was not the ideal RB to cass passes fro Favre. I hate to say anything bad about Favre (been a fan since I listened to his first college game on Radio), but with his quick release/velocity he has a tendency to have those passes go high and a big back with better body control who presents a larger/taller target is better suited for the spot.
    Lost me there. Never knew you added RB's on teams with respect to size so that they were better suited to catching passes from the QB. I always thought the QB was supposed to take a bit off of it.

    JK, We did see him throw it high and hot one time to Chester, but the main concensus on here was that I was just being knit picky.

    In the end, not sure this is an issue.

    Adrian is a great player, but, we need another solid back if we are going to have an elite running offense again without burning AP to crisp in the process. And I for one would like to have APs talent around for a long time to come at the end of the season come playoff time. And with another solid RB AP will be much fresher in the playoffs.
    Run him until he drops. Then, go out and draft another one.

    Seriously, I could give a squat about burning a player out. They get good damn money to perform. Run him 300-325 times a year and be ready with another cat to get 100 or so reps a year.

    I really liked seeing AP develop as a pass catcher last year...getting a second RB who is a threat will let AP continue to round out his game. This was neglected until last year. He is 6-2 with great athletic ability, great swivel in his hips, very good extension for a RB. He is built to be a great receiver too, and did I mention that Brett has a tendency to get the ball high to his running backs. Another year of working with Favre and developing his receiving skills should solidify AP as one of the Elite receiving RBs in the game.

    Look at what he accomplished in year 1 with Favre:

    ...............Rec...Yds....Avg
    A Peterson.....43....436....10.14<<<1st yr w Favre
    C Johnson......50....503....10.06
    R Rice.........78....702....9.00
    M Forte........57....471....8.26
    F Gore.........52....406....7.81
    M J-Drew.......53....374....7.06
    S Jackson......51....322....6.31

    TAKE THAT CJ!
    AD fixes his pass protection issues and I think our problem is solved. Course that would up his reps a bit.

    Still need a backup.


    There are a few (surprisingly few) 3rd down only backs with better numbers, but, I think it's more appropriate to look at the primary running backs.

    Its those extra dimensions that makes great offenses happen. Look at the Vikings last year, sure the running game had a downturn, but the overall performance went way up because of those extra dimensions.

    And the next dimension the Vikings should explore is a Complimentary back to AP. Someone else has got to touch the ball at RB, it may as well be one who can be effective at all times in the game and complements AP at the same time.
    Wait a minute now. First you say we slipped last year, and then you come back with our performance went up.

    I think I know what your saying, however, I also don't think you are attributing any OL play in your stats.

    I guess this qualifies as a rant...
    Not a rant my friend. Just some damn good football discussion points.
    Just a couple of points.

    1. I agree OLine DEFINITELY needs to be addressed as well, its just that there are more ways to address the OLine. I am even Okay if they go early with an OL(just dont miss on 2 or 3 with a RB)

    2. AP needs the Powerbackup to get those 100 or so carries and keep the pressure on the defense through the ENTIRE game. Thats what really wears down the D. Two tough backs will tear up a defense even more, and AP has less chance of getting dinged up and missing a game or two, and is more likely to be fresh come playoffs.

    If they could find a Scatback/3rd down back in FA I think he would do well too.

    3. I hate the Idea of burning out AP over the next few years. He is a unique resource that you can't count on replacing that easily.

    4. The reason I focus on RB early is that its hard to find one late that is really any good. Its almost a waste of a pick. And since the RB FA market has already settled down it looks like the only option.

    RBs drafted over last 5 years now rated as RB1/RB2

    Grade Count
    1 ....... 14
    1.2 ....... 4
    2 ....... 4
    2.3 ....... 4
    3 ....... 5
    3.4 ....... 4
    4 ....... 2
    4.5 ....... 0
    5 ....... 0
    5.6 ....... 0
    6 ....... 1
    6.7 ....... 0
    7 ....... 1
    7 ....... 1
    FA ....... 0
    40

    Just looking at the odds very closely and seeing where they lead me.
    None

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