Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 14
  1. #1
    bsmithberkley is offline Pro-Bowler
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    333

    2010 Draft Prediction - How does your's compare?

    I am new to the Forum Guys, it looks like a great sight. Most of my interest lies in what will happen with the Vikings in the Draft/Free Agency and Trades. I think this is going to be a wicked off-season with the Changing of the Salary Cap rules for 2010.

    Combine the rules changes with the Vikings being contenders, having a loaded roster already (RB2 is the only true hole), and perhaps just 1-year left with Favre should make this a draft for the ages.

    Because they don't have the immediate need for lots of Starters, I think the Vikings will shift draft plans a little this year and fill some holes with Veteran FA signings and concentrate the first 3 or 4 picks on players who can make a real impact/improvement next year and use the last 3 or 4 picks on players/positions who will need 2 to 3 years to maximize their Potential but will still make an impact as a Backup/situational player.

    I also think that because of all the undergrads who declared for this years draft that next years draft will be pretty thin. Following that line of thought I expect a lot of next years picks to be traded to optimize this years picks in the first 4 rounds where the talent is ridiculous.

    So, take a look at my Draft Analysis below and tell me what you think. How should the Vikings leverage this years draft?

    Positional Needs:

    CB - Its an obvious need and the Vikings first pick sits in the middle of the sweet spot for CBs in this draft. Unless some huge talent slips to them it has to be a CB.

    Targets:
    Kyle Wilson Boise 1...Target, would have to trade up/drop
    Daryl McCorty 1...50/50 shot
    Kareem Jackson 1<<<<Most Likely Pick
    AJ Jefferson 4...Back-up Plan

    All of these guys would be good picks and Match a need. After these guys you can't find the dual combination of talent and speed.

    RB - There is a huge drop-off in talent after A Peterson. The Vikings have to address the RB position agressively in this draft because of the drop-off in talent. If you have read some of my other posts I am very high on the Vikings picking up a Powerback in this draft.

    Targets:
    Toby Gerhart 2...If he fell you would have to take him
    Mantario Hardesty 2,3...Target<<<Most Likely Pick Available and great overall talent.
    Ben Tate 4...Back-up Plan

    Gerhart and Hardesty are really the only two players I really like outside of Matthews and Spiller in this draft. The all around skills drop off substantially after these two players.

    S- Another obvious need. With no Safties left in FA, this position must be adressed in the Draft. There are only a few Safeties with great talent and speed so you cant wait too long.

    Eric Berry 1...It would be worth leveraging next years Number 1 and another pick or two to get this guy. Game Changer!
    Taylor Mays 1...Top Physical Talent, needs a year or two of seasoning and will probably be up there with Berry but not as versatile
    Morgan Burnett 3...Questions about speed, would have to drop/trade up
    Major Wright 3 <<< Most Likely Candidate
    No back-up plan here which makes safety a concern after the draft if they miss here.

    Even though I have Safety as my 3rd pick I consider it the biggest need on the team. The Tampa 2 works based on the D-Line pressuring the Quarterback and the ability of the Safeties to cover a lot of ground and make contact with the recievers. Oh, how nice it would be to get Berry. Is there a team with an early pick that would rather not shoulder the financial burden? Wright has great speed and is probably the best hitter/tackler in this draft class and should be on the board for our 3rd round pick. He would keep the Safety competiton level very high next year.

    OL - I know I will take some heat for this one - There are two ways to improve the offensive line. Go after big studs as starters or get more Depth and competition. If you go for the big stud in round 1/2 you will miss out on all of the quality CBs and Safeties while there is really good talent in the later rounds especially at the Guard position. Couple this with targeting FA Shawn Andrews and you have a realistic hope of making progress next year. I think you risk staying even or even taking a step back in the first year if you go for the stud lineman. And because I think depth was the real weakness on this line we should go after a FA Center in Mawae or Wiegman (whichever probowl C has the most juice left in the tank).


    Marshall Newhouse 4-5 <<< Most Likely Target G/T
    Shelly Smith 6-7...Back-up plan

    These are just two great examples of the talent available late in the Draft.

    TE - Shiancoe is good to go as primary pass catcher, but there could be some hidden value in this draft for the future.


    Jimmy Grahm 2-3 - Physical freak, if available at 3rd round and no safety value is available
    Nate Byham 6 -Target <<<<Most Likely, Elite blocking back with Pass catching upside

    Byhams only downside is that Dorin Dickerson emerged as Pass catching tight-end and the kept Byham in to block. He was one of the elite all around TEs coming into SR season before Dickerson's emergance.


    QB- I am not into "Change for Changes sake", drafting one from this crop is about the same as sticking with Tavaris Jackson. Just not a good draft for QB. Don't delude yourself into thinking there will be a great QB available. Of the QBs likely available I think there are only two with the ability to make throws and stand-up to NFL defenses. Neither one is worth targeting with better than the 7th pick.

    Snead 5 <<<< Target but only if he drops to 7th
    Lefevour 4... Backup, again only if he drops to 7th

    I wouldn't be disappointed if they pass on a QB and use the "Team of Dreams" theory to atract the best FA QBs until we get a real Franchise QB in draft. Too many teams waste valuable picks on QBs. A team that can attract a good FA QB should not waste that pick on this years crop.

    LB- This position is more about insurance for EJ Henderson than a priority need in the draft. And I only see one LB I would Target

    J Chaney 4,5 <<< Only LB I would pick Great Speed, and Perfect Complement to Brinkley if EJ is not 100%. Should also be a special team gamer. Elite speed for a LB.

    Believe it or not, I think Chaney is the only LB in the entire class with the speed to be considered on our defense. A very thin crop of Tampa 2 Linebackers this year.

    DL - If you don't have a Top Pick to grab an Elite DT this is a great draft to pick up a DL late in the draft as Depth and insurance for the Williams Wall.

    Al Woods 5-6 <<< Target
    Travis Ivey 7.... Back-up Plan

    Unless a Monster falls to us in the 1st round I think its pointless to go after a future starter. However, I would not be surprised if they traded up to get a Monster DT in this Draft, this might be the year to trade next years 1st and 3rd might be attractive enough. However, I would expect limited impact for next years team.

    WR - Not a position of great need, but, I would love to see a real Burner/Downfield threat opposite Rice to really stretch the field, and Berrian just hasn't gotten it done with his Hamstring issues, regardless, if it's Farve or any other QB, the Vikings need a real threat to line-up opposite of Rice. These Guys are big and/or Fast. I like the idea of causing match-up problems, remember, if you have to play off of a reciever to respect his downfield routes those juicy open spots just open up in the field that Favre loves so much.

    Marcus Easley 5 .... If he drops
    Denario Alexander 6,7 <<< Most Likely

    Again, this is likely a position you pick at 7 if a QB does not drop. Not convinced we even need a WR in the draft. With the depth (Great talents in first 5 rounds) in this draft and the talent level of the Vikings (hard to make roster space)it might be better to use this as leverage to move up in an earlier round, I could see some real horse trading to maximize picks in rds 3-4 this year.

    In summary heres my draft predictions with school/ht/wt/40 time:

    RD 1 CB Kareem Jackson Ala 5-11 196 4.40
    RD 2 RB Montario Hardesty Tenn 6-0 225 4.49
    RD 3 S Major Wright Florida 6-0 206 4.44
    RD 4 LB J Chaney Miss St 6-1 242 4.54
    RD 5 G/T M Newhouse TCU 6-4 319 4.99
    RD 5 DT A Woods LSU 6-4 309 5.15
    RD 6 TE N Byham Pitt 6-4 268 4.97
    RD 7 QB D Snead Ole Miss 6-3 219 5.04
    or
    RD 7 WR M Easley Conn 6-3 219 4.39

    Well, that's my straightforward take on this years Draft following the Vikings current pick positions, here is my wish list of deals the Vikings could leverage to make a spectacular draft happen:

    Christmas Trade/Free Agent Wish List

    1. Trade up for Eric Berry, face it, it will be hard to incorporate so many picks into such a good team over the next couple of years. The Vikings should focus on upgrading and maximizing their picks value. (This years 1, 5?, next years 3, 2nd in 2012, whatever it takes to steal this guy!)

    2. Nnambdi Asomugha, yeah I said it, he has a clause in his contract to set at the average of the top 5 QBs. Have to swallow a $20M+ salary in 2010 but what a catch if he signs a contract extension for a more reasonable price. You might have to give up a Corner and future draft pick to get him as well but what the hell.

    3. Mawae or Wiegman as a back-up at Center. Instead of running Sullivan out of town and bringing in a Center who is not likely to improve the situation next year, bring in one of these guys to bolster the middle for a year or two.

    4. Shawn Andrews as depth at Guard. Its taking a chance that can be backed-up with insurance in the draft. The Vikings locker room is stable enough and mature enough to handle a guy like Andrews. If he doesn't work out, cut him, you are none the worse for it and he is still capable of great things especially in a limited role.

    5. Westbrook or trade future pick for Norwood. You can't count on an unproven or Rookie RB to be a dependable 3rd down back. I would still be up for Westbrook coming to Minnesotta or going after Norwood with a future pick.

    6. Trade next years 1 and 3 for another 1st round pick this year at OL or DL. May not have a huge impact next year but would start paving the way for the future. Also, with all of the early talent coming out this year, next years draft class will be light on talent.

    Well, thats a lot in one post, but I wanted to bundle it all together.

    It should be an interesting Draft. Where did I mess-up on these predictions? I bet a lot of people disagree with RB and late Focus on OL.

    Are there any other great picks out there in the later rounds at DL/OL that I overlooked? or interesting FA moves.
    None

  2. #2
    Marrdro's Avatar
    Marrdro is offline Beware My Spreadsheet, Bitches!
    Join Date
    Dec 1969
    Posts
    43,935

    Re:2010 Draft Prediction - How does your's compare?

    Welcome to the site my newest purple and gold friend.

    Post well and often. Judging by your first, you will not only do that, but you will climb the ole spreadsheets faster than most.

    As to your post, couple of comments:

    I also think that because of all the undergrads who declared for this years draft that next years draft will be pretty thin.
    That is a good point, however, the flip side is that someone has to take the reps voided by the players who came out. I suspect those cats will be just as good.

    CB - Its an obvious need and the Vikings first pick sits in the middle of the sweet spot for CBs in this draft. Unless some huge talent slips to them it has to be a CB.
    I currently have them taking Jackson in my current mock. Absolutely love the kid, however, there is alot of value in every round of this draft.

    This allows the staff to look at other positions that might not be as deep and take one of the better cats left at 30 (i.e. OLB, DT, LT, G etc)

    RB - There is a huge drop-off in talent after A Peterson.
    I don't agree. AY and IJ appear to be pretty good fits for what we are looking for with respect to a RB. Always remember and never forget, just cause you don't know thier name don't mean they can't play ball.

    Anyway, there are alot of RB's in this draft class and alot more Vets standing out there looking for jobs because of it. I wouldn't be to suprised to see Ole Ricky boy not even burn a pick on a cat in this draft.

    S- Another obvious need.
    Another one I don't agree with. Drafting a S just compounds our problem but doesn't fix it as most of our issues are related to young S's making mistakes in game time situations. Once the first 3 are gone, every S in this draft will still have those same issues.

    I look to see the staff scour the waiver boards post draft to see if they can find some 2nd tier vet to bring in on the cheap to help, but don't see the draft fixing our issues.

    I do like the Wright selection though, especially in the 3rd. If for some reason he is there that would be a damn fine value pick.

    On a side note.....
    The Tampa 2 works based on the D-Line pressuring the Quarterback and the ability of the Safeties to cover a lot of ground and make contact with the recievers.
    That Tampa 2 works when the D-line gets pressure on the QB.......end of statement.

    S's, like CB's in the T2 cover a specific zone. They don't play the field/cover alot of ground. Thats why Sharpe hated playing here.

    OL - I know I will take some heat for this one -
    There is some good discussion points in there. Problem for me is that I believe the following:

    a. Our G play last year was bad for 4 reasons.....1) New C and 2) Hutch played hurt, 3)PL and Herrera needed time to get thier timing/familiar with each other, 4)Big Mac sucks. The first 3 issues are talent related and should be smoothed out this year. The 4th, well, only way to solve that is to get rid of his ass.

    Go ahead and draft for value. Get a cat that can play LT/G as a swing man, but go out and fix your LT problem by signing Gaither and shitcanning Big Mac.

    TE - Shiancoe is good to go as primary pass catcher, but there could be some hidden value in this draft for the future.
    Never to early to start looking to the future I say. I would love to see them bring in a young "Inline" TE, however, those cats are far and few between these days as most colleges only use the "Tweener" guys who can out run a LB but can't block.

    A couple that I think might be long term projects that might slip through the cracks are Colin Peek and Michael Hoomanawanui. Could be had for a 7th or even a UDFA. That makes them a safe move to the PS so they can work on becoming better pass catchers.

    QB
    Not sure why everyone is so high on Snead. He was beat out by McCoy wasn't he, then transferred?

    Not a stellar group, this class, but there are a couple that would be interesting projects for sure. I really like that Skelton kid followed by Zach Robinson but don't see either of them stepping out and leading a team this year or possibly the next.

    LB- This position is more about insurance for EJ Henderson than a priority need in the draft. And I only see one LB I would Target
    First, I don't think we need another young MLB behind Jasper. What we need is depth behind him. My guess is that if EJ isn't 100%, Jasper will get the knod, and then depending on how healthy EJ really is, we might opt to keep him on the IR and bring in a 2nd tier Vet on the cheap as insurance.

    Were I do think we need to look is the OLB position. With both Chad and Bens contract up, Ben being 33, I don't see him getting a long term contract. We need to pluck one of the many OLB's in this draft with one of our top 3 picks as his eventual replacement in 2012.

    DL - If you don't have a Top Pick to grab an Elite DT this is a great draft to pick up a DL late in the draft as Depth and insurance for the Williams Wall.
    This draft is deep in DT's. Problem is, almost all of them have 1rst round grades and will all go in the first round.

    With Guion on the learn to eventually replace K-will, we need to look for Phat Pats relacement. Kennedy provides a stop gap solution, but as with K-will, he is getting long in the tooth as well. Would suprise me in the least to see both K-will, JK and Phat Pat all gone by 2013.

    As you said though, this is the time to fix that issue. A great draft class will help the staff find the right guy.

    By the way, no need to package picks to move up. Just take one were the value is right. My guess is that they are looking at Troup for a reason. If he is there late in the 2nd he will be ours.

    Christmas Trade/Free Agent Wish List
    Everybody chant with me now......Gaither, Gaither, Gaither......
    Many many thanks to my talented friend Jos for the new Sig.http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v343/josdin00/Vikings/Marrdro_sig.jpg

  3. #3
    bsmithberkley is offline Pro-Bowler
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    333

    Re:2010 Draft Prediction - How does your's compare?

    Thanks for the welcome Mardro.


    Our talent level is so high and the draft is so deep It's hard for me to agree or disagree too much with any singular point except at Running Back.

    I may be wrong, but there were two things this team struggled with a bit last year. Running the ball up the gut and having a running threat when AD was not in the game.

    Improving the offensive line and getting depth will be done one way or the other through the Draft and or FA.

    But, the only option to improve RB is through the Draft. The RB moves in FA are basically done, the RFA's will sign with current club.

    I just don't think its wise to settle for Young and Johnson. I am afraid everyone is building them up and "hoping" too much of Johnson and Young. I know everyone loves Young and Johnson as teammates, but, football is played on the field and one position that demands a superior player for success is RB.

    Just look at the 40 RBs drafted over the last 5 years that are now playing as a RB1 or RB2 and where they were ranked coming into the NFL Draft:

    Grade Count
    (Round) #of Players
    1 14
    1.2 4
    2 4
    2.3 4
    3 5
    3.4 4
    4 2
    4.5 0
    5 0
    5.6 0
    6 1
    6.7 0
    7 1
    7 1
    FA 0
    Total 40

    RB1's and RB2's don't grow on trees, they get drafted early.

    Thats a pretty tough hill to climb for guys like Young and Johnson. Are you really ready to bet the success of next year on unproven players who were not predicted for success and don't measure up.

    I put a comparison together to Compare Guys we could get in the draft and how they compare to AD and Johnson (No stats on Young).

    Hardesty Peterson Tate Johnson
    ht 6-1 6-2 5-11 5-10
    Weight 225 217 220 209 Wear & Tear
    Round 2.3 1 3.4 FA Talent
    40 YD 4.49 4.4 4.34 4.41 Top Speed
    20-10 1.01 1.05 1.03 1.09 2nd Gear
    Vert 41 38.5 40.5 33 Explosion
    Broad 10.4 10.7 10.4 9.8 Explosion
    Shuttle 4.14 4.4 4.12 4.18 Change Dir/Quickness
    Cone 6.87 7.09 6.91 6.93 Lateral/Explosion

    Looking at the RB's combine results for the last 5 years Hardesty and Tate both rank right up there with AD as elite athletes.

    In fact, when you compare these two guys to the 40 RB1/2 that came out in the last 5 years they rank right at the Top virtually even with AD when you look at physical tools. You could easily argue that Tate is the best physical freak since AD got drafted.

    I am not saying they will be as good as AD, but, I would rather depend on one of them than Young or Johnson.

    I especially like Hardesty with his skills in the passing game he is a genuine route runner, catches passes like a WR, can go up for the ball, and is an accomplished blocking back...don't let his 40 time fool you, he is deceptively fast and is built to take apart a defense in a zone blocking scheme.

    Anyway, thats just my opinion that we shouldn't let this type of back get away from us. Having a real threat as our RB2 would bring a lot of dimensions to the team and pay off for years to come (Very important when Favre does retire).

    Everybody is so worried about finding the next great quarterback that they would take a gamble on just about any quarterback when a much easier insurance policy is there by solidifying the running game. A move which also pays dividends by improving opportunity for a Superbowl next year.

    I will try and make this my only rant on Drafting a RB early.
    None

  4. #4
    Marrdro's Avatar
    Marrdro is offline Beware My Spreadsheet, Bitches!
    Join Date
    Dec 1969
    Posts
    43,935

    Re:2010 Draft Prediction - How does your's compare?

    bsmithberkley wrote:
    Thanks for the welcome Mardro.


    Our talent level is so high and the draft is so deep It's hard for me to agree or disagree too much with any singular point except at Running Back.
    First, no welcomes necessary, especially if you keep this up. What a great post. Suffice it to say....You I like.

    I may be wrong, but there were two things this team struggled with a bit last year. Running the ball up the gut and having a running threat when AD was not in the game.

    Improving the offensive line and getting depth will be done one way or the other through the Draft and or FA.

    But, the only option to improve RB is through the Draft. The RB moves in FA are basically done, the RFA's will sign with current club.
    Well, it isn't the only option, but it is by far the cheapest.

    I just don't think its wise to settle for Young and Johnson. I am afraid everyone is building them up and "hoping" too much of Johnson and Young. I know everyone loves Young and Johnson as teammates, but, football is played on the field and one position that demands a superior player for success is RB.
    Something about me, I always default to a kid who has had NFL coaching (been on the roster) to a rook coming in for the first year, regardless of how good he was in college.

    I just believe that nothing can replace that experience.

    Just look at the 40 RBs drafted over the last 5 years that are now playing as a RB1 or RB2 and where they were ranked coming into the NFL Draft:

    Grade Count
    (Round) #of Players
    1 14
    1.2 4
    2 4
    2.3 4
    3 5
    3.4 4
    4 2
    4.5 0
    5 0
    5.6 0
    6 1
    6.7 0
    7 1
    7 1
    FA 0
    Total 40

    RB1's and RB2's don't grow on trees, they get drafted early.

    Thats a pretty tough hill to climb for guys like Young and Johnson. Are you really ready to bet the success of next year on unproven players who were not predicted for success and don't measure up.
    That has got to be one of the best stats posted this offseason. Again, you I like. Two comments/questions:

    1. Were did you get the data from?

    2. I am ready to bet the success of next year on AD and the backs behind him my friend, not just on the number 2 guy who will get at the most, 10-15 touches per game.


    I put a comparison together to Compare Guys we could get in the draft and how they compare to AD and Johnson (No stats on Young).

    Hardesty Peterson Tate Johnson
    ht 6-1 6-2 5-11 5-10
    Weight 225 217 220 209 Wear & Tear
    Round 2.3 1 3.4 FA Talent
    40 YD 4.49 4.4 4.34 4.41 Top Speed
    20-10 1.01 1.05 1.03 1.09 2nd Gear
    Vert 41 38.5 40.5 33 Explosion
    Broad 10.4 10.7 10.4 9.8 Explosion
    Shuttle 4.14 4.4 4.12 4.18 Change Dir/Quickness
    Cone 6.87 7.09 6.91 6.93 Lateral/Explosion

    Looking at the RB's combine results for the last 5 years Hardesty and Tate both rank right up there with AD as elite athletes.

    In fact, when you compare these two guys to the 40 RB1/2 that came out in the last 5 years they rank right at the Top virtually even with AD when you look at physical tools. You could easily argue that Tate is the best physical freak since AD got drafted.

    I am not saying they will be as good as AD, but, I would rather depend on one of them than Young or Johnson.

    I especially like Hardesty with his skills in the passing game he is a genuine route runner, catches passes like a WR, can go up for the ball, and is an accomplished blocking back...don't let his 40 time fool you, he is deceptively fast and is built to take apart a defense in a zone blocking scheme.

    Anyway, thats just my opinion that we shouldn't let this type of back get away from us. Having a real threat as our RB2 would bring a lot of dimensions to the team and pay off for years to come (Very important when Favre does retire).
    Yet again, a top shelf effort at trying to sway my opinion. Problem around these here parts, most don't pay any attention to combine stats.

    I'm not one of them by the way, I think it is a important piece to the puzzle. One quick question though. We are talking RB's, why did you include Tate and Hardesty. Going by your stats above, those cats should fall down a bit as they are projected in the 2nd round.

    Again, if I am to buy into drafting a RB that would fall into the top percentile, then I would think you would have given me stats on cats like Spiller or Mathews. Even Best is projected as a late first, early second and falls out of your data.

    Don't get me wrong, your effort is above and beyond, problem is I can use your own info to get back to my point of discussion and we haven't even taken into account the real issues related to not taking these guys....Injuries.

    Most will throw AD as a reason to not discuss injuries, however, I'm not one of them. I absolutely believe you have to look at them as a reason to look at what the value is of a kid that you can get much cheaper in a later round, say a kid like Steele who has the same 40 time as Hardesty.

    Analysis
    Inside: Flows through trash, sinking his hips to cut. Used in an east-west running system, but cuts and accelerates between the tackles when given the room to do so. Good vision to set up defenders and bounce outside if he sees an opening. Won't run through NFL linebackers to pick up the tough yard, but will spin off bodies and fall forward when grabbed from behind.

    Outside: Good straight-line speed; will explode through an opening and take the ball to the end zone. Hard to catch down the sideline without a perfect angle. A bit upright and long-limbed, but runs with nice balance. Patient when following pulling guard; lets block develop and decides the hole through which to burst.

    Breaking tackles: Not a power back, but runs hard enough to run through arm tackles at the line and keeps his legs moving after initial contact. Will get tripped up running through trash. Needs to protect the ball, fumbled three times in 2009 and redshirted in 2007 in part to work on ball security.

    Blocking: Good pass protector who plays with a wide base, seeks out contact and extends arms to latch on and sustain against bigger defensive ends and linebackers. Will also lower the shoulder to stop oncoming blitzers, but that won't work in the NFL.

    Receiving: Not used a lot in the passing game, but appears capable of catching screen passes and also be effective over the middle. Secures the catch before heading upfield, using his vision and shifty hips to find the available space.

    Intangibles: Team captain. Has earned teammates' and coaches' respect by his work in the classroom, weight room and on the field.
    CBS Sports Profile - Steele
    Probably not as highly touted as a Hardesty, but seems to have the qualities we are looking for (especially in the pass protection areas) with respect to a 3rd down back.

    Everybody is so worried about finding the next great quarterback that they would take a gamble on just about any quarterback when a much easier insurance policy is there by solidifying the running game. A move which also pays dividends by improving opportunity for a Superbowl next year.
    LOL, gotta remember who you are replying to my friend. I'm not just your everyday yutz here. I am the self professed king of yutz's on here and I would never take a gamble on a QB unless of course I knew he was the real thing.

    Look at my stance on Bradford and Clausen. I would almost consider passing on both of them at 30 because of issues and would rather look at a kid like Skelton who is sound, just not fully developed with respect to his passing craft.

    Same amount of upside, no injurie issues and alot less riskier in the cash department if they don't pan out. Seriously, who looks smarter......The Vikes for taking TJ or the Cards for taking Leinart? Course niether of them are as dumb looking as Cleveland or the Raiders. Cleveland already sent Brady on his way and the Cards are gambling on a cat that couldn't beat out Brady.

    I will try and make this my only rant on Drafting a RB early.
    Never, ever, ever, ever, ever, stop from ranting. Absolutely love to discuss just about any topic when it comes to football.

    Other than spinning up the Noodle Crotch Sniffers, there hasn't been much of that going on around here of late.

    Rants like this are what used to be great about this place. I for one welcome the addition.

    Top shelf my friend. Top shelf indeed.

    On a side note, you still haven't convinced me.
    Many many thanks to my talented friend Jos for the new Sig.http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v343/josdin00/Vikings/Marrdro_sig.jpg

  5. #5
    bsmithberkley is offline Pro-Bowler
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    333

    Re:2010 Draft Prediction - How does your's compare?

    Marrdro wrote:
    [quote]
    1. Were did you get the data from?

    I am ready to bet the success of next year on AD and the backs behind him my friend, not just on the number 2 guy who will get at the most, 10-15 touches per game.[quote]

    The data was from CBS. I gotta admit that I do a little research to support my Fantasy Football addiction in the off-season, and the RB position is an area of focus.

    There is a real method to my madness. I won't tell you how I weigh each factor, but I primarily look at these stats:

    1. Skill - Player rated for first 3 rounds
    2. NFL Body - 215 lbs and above is my target
    3. Explosion
    3.a. Broad Jump 10+Feet
    3.b. Vertical Jump 36+in

    Because I am targeting "Bigger" backs I don't like using 40 times. I wish they had a stat for 5 to 15 yard bursts. As a compromise I look at 20yd - 10yd times, the

    All of the other stats I look at as kind of tiebreaker.

    I only look for the "Peak Performer" in this type of analysis. I wouldn't try to predict every players performance on a sliding scale this way. Its a BOB analysis (Best of the Best)I think it does a good job of highlighting talent.Take a look at my "Freak-athletes" from the last 5 years:

    2010 Montario Hardesty
    2010 Ben Tate
    2009 Chris Wells <<< No qualifier
    2008 Jonathan Stewart
    2007 Adrian Peterson
    2006 Joseph Addai
    2005 Marion Barber III

    Note that Tate, Peterson, Hardesty have 3 highest scores for last 6 years and that in 2009 no RB qualified, Wells had best results.

    I am still trying to decide between Hardesty and Tate. I lean towards Hardesty because he is so polished already and should have no problem playing in a Pro set from day 1. He is also incredibly smooth running between the tackles, I remember a few games over the years where he didn't look "quick" exploding out of his stance, and he didn't have the best "top end speed", but he went through the line like it was butter. This guy has the two middle gears, and thats what I like in an inside runner!

    I too think that most RBs need seasoning to be successful, in third down/passing situations. Its because they didn't play that role in college (No practice). The vast majority of especially the big backs were workhorses in college asked only to run the ball.

    But, many rookie RBs are successful on 1st 2nd downs which is where we need an RB2. Look at 2008...

    These are the "Big Backs" from first 3 rds:

    Rashard Mendenhall <<< Injured
    Jonathan Stewart
    Matt Forte'
    Kevin Smith

    Remember, its tough to predict injuries, and Stewart was the standout in my system.

    That was only the "Big Backs", there were a couple of other successful rooks that didn't meet the weight cut-off:

    Chris Johnson
    Felix Jones
    Jamaal Charles
    Ray Rice

    I just don't see Young/Johnson as being in the talent pool as the NFL Caliber RB2 we need.

    Between, the two, Hardesty and Tate, Tate has one upside where he is considered best in the draft, "Blitz pick-up"
    . And that hits home with a lot of fans. While Hardesty has played in a pro-set he is okay with blitz pick-ups but not considered optimal. Saying that, at least he is familiar with the concepts of blitz pick-up and if that becomes a larger share of his responsibilities I think he would get better.

    I would leave it up to the true experts to make the final decision, but I think we would be crazy to let this draft happen and not pick up one of these two players.

    My Ideal scenario would be to draft Hardesty and find a 3rd down back in FA. Hardesty would bring those 10 or so quality touches to the game to back-up Peterson and provide great flexibility as a Pass catcher/route runner from day 1. In addittion Hardesty would be a serviceable 3rd down back in his own right.

    Consider the following Scenario:

    Just imagine its 2rd and 5. Hardesty and Peterson are both in the game with Harvin in the slot, Berrian and Rice Split wide, Shianoce at TE. (Assume we got a stud OL to boot).

    What personnel do you put in the game against this group of Skill players if you are a Defense? One thats wearing diapers! They will need em.

    I would never try to convince you to change your mind. I realized a long time ago that you are the only one who can change your mind.

    I am merely providing the background information you obviously overlooked!
    None

  6. #6
    marstc09's Avatar
    marstc09 is offline Jersey Retired
    Join Date
    Dec 1969
    Location
    Phoenix, Arizona
    Posts
    23,180

    Re:2010 Draft Prediction - How does your's compare?

    bsmithberkley wrote:
    I would never try to convince you to change your mind. I realized a long time ago that you are the only one who can change your mind.

    I am merely providing the background information you obviously overlooked!
    LOL. You will do just fine here. Marrdro is a different breed. I thought your post was spot on. Great minds think alike.

  7. #7
    Marrdro's Avatar
    Marrdro is offline Beware My Spreadsheet, Bitches!
    Join Date
    Dec 1969
    Posts
    43,935

    Re:2010 Draft Prediction - How does your's compare?

    marstc09 wrote:
    bsmithberkley wrote:
    I would never try to convince you to change your mind. I realized a long time ago that you are the only one who can change your mind.

    I am merely providing the background information you obviously overlooked!
    LOL. You will do just fine here. Marrdro is a different breed. I thought your post was spot on. Great minds think alike.
    .....So true......Its boring being just like everyone else. If everyone was, then how would we ever get any original thoughts out there.

    By the way, he has almost changed my mind about drafting a back. Almost.
    Many many thanks to my talented friend Jos for the new Sig.http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v343/josdin00/Vikings/Marrdro_sig.jpg

  8. #8
    Marrdro's Avatar
    Marrdro is offline Beware My Spreadsheet, Bitches!
    Join Date
    Dec 1969
    Posts
    43,935

    Re:2010 Draft Prediction - How does your's compare?

    bsmithberkley wrote:
    The data was from CBS. I gotta admit that I do a little research to support my Fantasy Football addiction in the off-season, and the RB position is an area of focus.
    I love that site. Been using it almost exclusvely for my "Team Needs" and "Player Profile" rankings.

    I like Ourlads better but haven't ordered the mag yet.

    There is a real method to my madness. I won't tell you how I weigh each factor, but I primarily look at these stats:

    1. Skill - Player rated for first 3 rounds
    2. NFL Body - 215 lbs and above is my target
    3. Explosion
    3.a. Broad Jump 10+Feet
    3.b. Vertical Jump 36+in

    Because I am targeting "Bigger" backs I don't like using 40 times. I wish they had a stat for 5 to 15 yard bursts. As a compromise I look at 20yd - 10yd times, the

    All of the other stats I look at as kind of tiebreaker.
    I like bigger backs as well, however, I've been looking at smaller cats this year. More along the lines of messing with the idea that the league will shift from the traditional "Big Back" "Hit the A Gap" kindof mentality towards the smaller/faster/get out side guys.

    I would love to sit down over a beer or two and listen to your weighting factor though.

    .......snip........

    Consider the following Scenario:

    Just imagine its 2rd and 5. Hardesty and Peterson are both in the game with Harvin in the slot, Berrian and Rice Split wide, Shianoce at TE. (Assume we got a stud OL to boot).

    What personnel do you put in the game against this group of Skill players if you are a Defense? One thats wearing diapers! They will need em.
    I was tracking until you got to this scenario.

    Why would you have 2 RB's in there?
    5 OLmen
    1 QB
    2 RB
    3 WR's
    1 TE

    Thats the kindof stuff that looses 5 yards.


    I would never try to convince you to change your mind. I realized a long time ago that you are the only one who can change your mind.

    I am merely providing the background information you obviously overlooked!
    Regardless of what my good friend Mars thinks, I do change my mind and I come here to have it changed.

    He just hasn't ever put up as good of an effort as you.

    So far, I like what your saying, I just don't see them taking a RB that high, if they even do draft one.
    Many many thanks to my talented friend Jos for the new Sig.http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v343/josdin00/Vikings/Marrdro_sig.jpg

  9. #9
    bsmithberkley is offline Pro-Bowler
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    333

    Re:2010 Draft Prediction - How does your's compare?

    Marrdro wrote:
    [quote]
    I was tracking until you got to this scenario.

    Why would you have 2 RB's in there?
    5 OLmen
    1 QB
    2 RB
    3 WR's
    1 TE

    Thats the kindof stuff that looses 5 yards.
    [quote]

    OOPS, had a chilly moment!

    Drop Berrian from the scenario. It looks like an obvious run package, but, AD and Hardesty will prove to be 2 of the best pass catching RB's in the NFL next year...Deadly in the West Coast offense, causing Defenses to play smaller, spread out more near the line of scrimmage. And having Two real threats at RB would "spread the defense more"/"split its focus". I wouldn't want them in together every play!

    Its just the Idea of so much dynamic flexibility in the backfield...AD is great, but if he is the only RB the defense has to worry about/prepare for it makes the defenses we face better than it should be.

    The Vikings were way too 1-dimensional out of the backfield last year. I don't believe we can count on Young or Johnson to be the kind of RB2 that opposing defenses have to make adjustments for in their practices/game planning/personnel choices and it doesn't look lIke we will land one in FA.

    Therefore, I look towards the draft for that RB and we should go early.

    In addition, the Offense only has two needs (Areas were they could actually get better) for next year. RB and OLine Depth/Maybe a starter. We will have a lot more flexibility of addressing the o-line than we will in addressing the RB situation.

    Quality RBs, even RB2s are prized commodities in the NFL. I can only think of 4 teams with that kind of talent (CAR, NYJ, BAL, DAL, NO) and they are 5of the top 7 rushing offenses when you measure by yds/carry.

    We ranked Tied for 19th in yards/carry! 19TH! Did I say that right? Freakin 19th!

    I hate to say it, while Chester was a great team player and good out of the backfield on Screens he was not good running the ball last year. His stats dropped yet again last year:

    1st Down.....................3.1 yds/carry
    2nd Down.....................3.3 yds/carry
    Road.........................3.0 yds/carry
    Close Games +/- 7 in 4th ....2.3yds/carry

    Chester also was not the ideal RB to cass passes fro Favre. I hate to say anything bad about Favre (been a fan since I listened to his first college game on Radio), but with his quick release/velocity he has a tendency to have those passes go high and a big back with better body control who presents a larger/taller target is better suited for the spot.

    Adrian is a great player, but, we need another solid back if we are going to have an elite running offense again without burning AP to crisp in the process. And I for one would like to have APs talent around for a long time to come at the end of the season come playoff time. And with another solid RB AP will be much fresher in the playoffs.

    I really liked seeing AP develop as a pass catcher last year...getting a second RB who is a threat will let AP continue to round out his game. This was neglected until last year. He is 6-2 with great athletic ability, great swivel in his hips, very good extension for a RB. He is built to be a great receiver too, and did I mention that Brett has a tendency to get the ball high to his running backs. Another year of working with Favre and developing his receiving skills should solidify AP as one of the Elite receiving RBs in the game.

    Look at what he accomplished in year 1 with Favre:

    ...............Rec...Yds....Avg
    A Peterson.....43....436....10.14<<<1st yr w Favre
    C Johnson......50....503....10.06
    R Rice.........78....702....9.00
    M Forte........57....471....8.26
    F Gore.........52....406....7.81
    M J-Drew.......53....374....7.06
    S Jackson......51....322....6.31

    TAKE THAT CJ!

    There are a few (surprisingly few) 3rd down only backs with better numbers, but, I think it's more appropriate to look at the primary running backs.

    Its those extra dimensions that makes great offenses happen. Look at the Vikings last year, sure the running game had a downturn, but the overall performance went way up because of those extra dimensions.

    And the next dimension the Vikings should explore is a Complimentary back to AP. Someone else has got to touch the ball at RB, it may as well be one who can be effective at all times in the game and complements AP at the same time.

    I guess this qualifies as a rant...
    None

  10. #10
    bsmithberkley is offline Pro-Bowler
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    333

    Re:2010 Draft Prediction - How does your's compare?

    Marrdro wrote:
    I like bigger backs as well, however, I've been looking at smaller cats this year. More along the lines of messing with the idea that the league will shift from the traditional "Big Back" "Hit the A Gap" kindof mentality towards the smaller/faster/get out side guys.
    That could be a way to go as well, and I only see 1 RB in our window and that would be Jahvid Best.

    If he slipped to us in the second, it would be an option, but I don't like his propensity for soft tissue injuries. He also doesn't have a lot of power/explosion so I see him as limited to just a 3rd down back in the NFL. Great in space, but not good after contact.

    If a guy is going to project as a 3rd down back only I think you have to target FA or go for a later round Pick.
    None

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. 2010 PPO FF - DRAFT DATES SET
    By Zeus in forum Fantasy Football Talk
    Replies: 35
    Last Post: 09-03-2010, 05:03 PM
  2. My Prediction for Week 1 of the 2010 NFL Season
    By SharperImage42 in forum Vikings Fan Forum
    Replies: 7
    Last Post: 11-03-2009, 06:17 AM
  3. Vikings team prediction (not a record prediction) part 2
    By duvaldomo in forum Vikings Fan Forum
    Replies: 11
    Last Post: 05-02-2008, 07:36 PM
  4. Vikings team prediction (not a record prediction)
    By duvaldomo in forum Vikings Fan Forum
    Replies: 23
    Last Post: 07-24-2007, 12:30 AM
  5. MOVED: Vikings team prediction (not a record prediction)
    By ultravikingfan in forum The Clubhouse
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 07-23-2007, 05:24 PM

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •