Thread: 2007 NFL Draft Order

Here is what the 2007 draft order looks like as of today.
The NFL determines draft order based purely on record and opponent's winning percentages.
Head to head games and common opponents are not taken into consideration.
The numbers for the opponent's wins include each teams opponents for next week as well, not just the teams that they have played to date.
Obviously, these numbers do not take into consideration playoff performances.


In the case of a tie, I have listed the teams in alphabetical order with duplicate pick numbers. The NFL resolves any ties at the end of the season via a coin flip.

Pick # Team Record Opp's Wins (full season)
================================================== =============
Pick: 1
Detroit 2-13 127
Pick: 2
Oakland 2-13 129
Pick: 3
Cleveland 4-11 128
Pick: 4
Tampa Bay 4-11 130
Pick: 5
Arizona 5-10 118 vs San Diego
Pick: 6
Houston 5-10 127 vs Cleveland
Pick: 6
Washington 5-10 130 vs Giants
Pick: 8
Minnesota 6-9 116 vs St Louis
Pick: 9
San Francisco 6-9 119 vs Denver
Pick: 10
Miami 6-9 129 vs Indianapolis
Pick: 11
Atlanta 7-8 110 vs Philly
Pick: 11
St. Louis 7-8 110 vs Minny
Pick: 13
Carolina 7-8 116 vs NO
Pick: 14
Green Bay 7-8 114 vs Chicago
Pick: 15
Pittsburgh 7-8 122 vs Cincinatti
Pick: 16
NY Giants 7-8 127 vs Redskins
Pick: 17
Buffalo 7-8 138 vs Baltimore
Pick: 18
Seattle 8-7 107
Pick: 19
Kansas City 8-7 118
Pick: 20
Jacksonville 8-7 126
Pick: 21
Cincinnati 8-7 128
Pick: 22
Tennessee 8-7 136
Pick: 23
Dallas 9-6 109
Pick: 24
NY Jets 9-6 114
Pick: 25
Philadelphia 9-6 115
Pick: 26
Denver 9-6 123
Pick: 27
New Orleans 10-5 110
Pick: 28
New England 11-4 121
Pick: 29
Indianapolis 11-4 122
Pick: 30
Baltimore 12-3 113
Pick: 31
Chicago 13-2 100
Pick: 32
San Diego 13-2 110

Obviously, Minnesota's draft order can change based on whether they win or lose.
Below are the best case (from a draft perspective) and worst case scenarios.

Minnesota Loses:

Best Case Scenario - Arizona, Houston, and Washington all win and Minnesota gets the #5 pick

Pick: 5
Minnesota 6-10 117

Pick: 6
Arizona 6-10 118
Pick: 7
San Francisco 6-10 120
Pick: 8
Houston 6-10 127
Pick: 9
Washington 6-10 130
Pick: 9
Miami 6-10 130

Worst Case Scenario - AZ, HO, and WA all lose, and Minnesota keeps the 8th pick

Minnesota Wins:

Best Case Scenario - So does Atlanta and Green Bay, Minnesota drops to the 9th Pick

Worst Case Scenario - Every other 6-9 and 7-8 team loses and Minnesota drops to the 11th pick

Pick: 8
Atlanta 7-9 111
Pick: 8
St. Louis 7-9 111
Pick: 10
Green Bay 7-9 115
Pick: 11
Minnesota 7-9 116
Pick: 12
Carolina 7-9 117
Pick: 13
San Francisco 7-9 119
Pick: 14
Pittsburgh 7-9 123
Pick: 15
NY Giants 7-9 128
Pick: 16
Miami 7-9 129
Pick: 17
Buffalo 7-9 139

As you can see, the very best Minnesota can end up with is the 5th overall, and the worst is the 11th overall.
This should make for a very exciting draft come April.
Since I honestly expect the Vikes to lose to St Louis (who are still in the playoff hunt), I will be cheering for Arizona, Houston, and Washington this weekend!

I would certainly hope with a top 10 pick we could get one of the top WR's in the draft.
Maybe not Calvin Johnson or Jarrett, but there's got to be some talent there.
Ginn?
I'm certainly no Mel Kiper, who I'm not a big fan of anyway, but he's usually fairly accurate in terms of where guys will be selected, not necessarily in how they'll fair in the NFL, but his projections are usually close as far as the picks go.

"NodakPaul" wrote:

Here is what the 2007 draft order looks like as of today.
The NFL determines draft order based purely on record and opponent's winning percentages.
Head to head games and common opponents are not taken into consideration.
The numbers for the opponent's wins include each teams opponents for next week as well, not just the teams that they have played to date.
Obviously, these numbers do not take into consideration playoff performances.

Thanks for the analysis, NP!
Good stuff there.

=Z=

I hate saying this, but GB beat ( :'() Vikes twice how would they pick ahead of us with the same record

Thanks for that draft beatdown there NP... Looks like we will be getting a pretty decent pick come April.. I just hope they spend it wisely.. Its going to get interesting here in a few weeks..

"NodakPaul" wrote:

Minnesota Wins:


Best Case Scenario - So does Atlanta and Green Bay, Minnesota drops to the 9th Pick

Worst Case Scenario - Every other 6-9 and 7-8 team loses and Minnesota drops to the 11th pick

Pick: 8
Atlanta 7-9 111
Pick: 8
St. Louis 7-9 111
Pick: 10
Green Bay 7-9 115
Pick: 11
Minnesota 7-9 116
Pick: 12
Carolina 7-9 117
Pick: 13
San Francisco 7-9 119
Pick: 14
Pittsburgh 7-9 123
Pick: 15
NY Giants 7-9 128
Pick: 16
Miami 7-9 129
Pick: 17
Buffalo 7-9 139

As you can see, the very best Minnesota can end up with is the 5th overall, and the worst is the 11th overall.
This should make for a very exciting draft come April.
Since I honestly expect the Vikes to lose to St Louis (who are still in the playoff hunt), I will be cheering for Arizona, Houston, and Washington this weekend!

Now that I think about this, the worst overall could end up being even lower, right, once ALL of the opponent wins from Sunday are calculated, right?
Your totals go up by 1 for these teams, based on whether or not they win or lose, but it doesn't take all of the opponents into account, I believe....

=Z=

"vikinggreg" wrote:

I hate saying this, but GB beat ( :'() Vikes twice how would they pick ahead of us with the same record

When determining draft order, only the team's record and opponent's overall win record are taken into consideration.
Head to head games are not.


If we finish with the same record as GB, their opponent's win record would be 115, and ours would be 116.
Therefore they get the spot.

"AWZeus" wrote:

"NodakPaul" wrote:

<snip>

Now that I think about this, the worst overall could end up being even lower, right, once ALL of the opponent wins from Sunday are calculated, right?
Your totals go up by 1 for these teams, based on whether or not they win or lose, but it doesn't take all of the opponents into account, I believe....

=Z=

Hmmm, I thought I took that into account, but you are right... there will be some additional movement based on all opponents win/loss...
Good catch AWZ.
There could be more movement in the 10-13 pick range based on how close they are.

Great analysis! I was just thinking about how it would all work out for the Vikes the other day and had absolutely no idea.

just think, if this was last year, we'd be in a prime position to draft leinart or cutler