Thread: A Falcon fan's breakdown of Sunday's game

This breakdown is similar to and likely inspired by the breakdown I did yesterday.
They were nice enough to link back to us, just returning the favor.
I wish they would give me permission to post on their boards, so I can discuss their breakdown... but they are apparently too scared of trolls to allow new members.
I guess given the Vick incident, I probably shouldn't be surprised...
Keep in mind that this fan is also predicting the Falcons to go 12-4 this year and lose to Denver in the Superbowl... ;D

http://boards.atlantafalcons.com/index.php?showtopic=267347&st=0&start=0

First of all, let's look at match-ups that should be interesting.

Atlanta's O-Line vs. Minnesota's D-Line
One of the reasons I specifically like this game for seeing just how good our younger players are is this match-up right here. I'd put money on us going 3 on 2 with all 3 of our interior linemen[Blalock, McClure, and Forney] blocking Minnesota's pair of mammoth DTs, with our tackles singling Minnesota's weaker position at DE, especially because[I believe] Erasmus James is injured and Ray Edwards is starting at RDE. I like our odds in this match-up, and as long as they don't decide to get aggressive and blitz alot, it will allow us to spread the field better with more WRs instead of using TEs and backs to help block blitzing defenders.
Overall Winner: Atlanta

Jerious Norwood and Warrick Dunn vs. Minnesota's D-Line
Don't try running to the inside. End of story. Sounds to me like it's going to be Jerious' night on Sunday, because Dunn is really more of an inside, slashing-type runner where as Jerious is the more shifty, try to get outside and outspeed everybody guy. We're going to be able to do that.
Overall Winner: Push

Jerious Norwood and Warrick Dunn vs. Minnesota's Linebacking Corps
Okay, I've been saying this for a while now. Minnesota's LB corps is not very good in certain situations. Their middle linebacker, E.J. Henderson, is a really great run stuffer, but only against power runners. He gets beaten badly against speedsters. Their right outside linebacker, Chad Greenway, is just the opposite. He gets bowled over by power backs, but he's fast enough to stuff speed RBs. Their LOLB[Ben Leber] just plain sucks against the run overall. He's too slow to beat speed runners to the outside, and not good enough a tackler to stuff the inside run like Henderson. As long as Atlanta runs to the right side, away from Greenway, they'll win this matchup pretty well. Inside run will be stuffed BIG TIME, runs to the left are pretty good, but we're going to make our money on the right side of the field. If we run at Leber, we're set. Hopefully Petrino knows that.
Overall Winner: Atlanta

Atlanta's WRs, TEs, and Backs vs. Minnesota's Secondary
This is where we are going to struggle all night. For having one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL last season, they sure do have a lot of talent in that secondary. Antoine Winfield won't get beat deep at all. Cedric Griffin is very good opposite Winfield. Marcus McCauley eliminates Jenkins' height advantage. That's three of our receivers basically getting shut down. Who's left? Laurent Robinson and Alge Crumpler. Actually, now that I think about it, we might end up causing match up problems with these two, because while they have their big three CBs, we have 5 very capable receivers, not even including Jerious and Warrick out of the backfield. Oh, wait. I almost forgot. They have FREAKING DARREN SHARPER playing Strong Safety. There goes Crump. Dwight Smith is pretty good at FS, so we pretty much have no deep ball. Unfortunately, this could be our biggest problem Sunday on Offense.
Overall Winner: Minnesota

Minnesota's O-Line vs. Atlanta's D-Line
The most interesting matchup here is Bryant McKinnie vs. John Abraham. If we decide to swap John and Jamaal, then John will beat their RT easily unless he's doubled, and Jamaal vs. Bryant will be a very interesting match up. I'd love to see either one[OR BOTH!] of them get a sack off of McKinnie, especially Jamaal, because he's the future. Rod Coleman and Grady Jackson are going to present a problem for their RG, but their C and LG are very good, and of course their LG is the best LG in the NFL, Steve Hutchinson. I'm looking forward to seeing how Grady does against an All-Pro in Hutch, and nothing would make me happier than seeing big Grady get a TFL or two against Hutch. Overall, this will be interesting, but the right side of that line is going to be exploited all night long.
Overall Winner: Atlanta

Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson vs. Atlanta's D-Line
Guys, meet Grady Jackson. As long as he isn't completely dominated by Steve Hutchinson, he's going to be a factor, whether it means causing MIN's RB to cutback unexpectedly, tackling one of them behind the LOS, or just clogging up their hole so another of our players on D can make the tackle. If they run to the outside, Jamaal and John are both pretty much sure tackles at this point in my opinion. We will have trouble if they run at Rod Coleman with Hutchinson as a pulling guard. Big trouble.
Overall Winner: Push

Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson vs. Atlanta's Linebacking Corps
I'm more worried about Chester than Adrian. Chester will run Demorrio Williams over at least once, no doubt about that. Mike Boley and Keith Brooking are both incredible at playing the run, but Demorrio will likely need help from Lawyer Milloy. Good news about that is that the only way either of their RBs can get to DeMo is if they go around Abe or Gravy, and by the time they do that, Law will already be at the scene. Look for this match-up to be more lopsided than most think in Atlanta's favor.
Overall Winner: Atlanta

Minnesota's WRs, TEs, and Backs vs. Atlanta's Secondary
This isn't even fair when you factor in Adrian Peterson as a Reggie Bush-type player. Hall shuts down Williamson, and then Houston gets an easier start to the season with Bobby Wade. Lewis Sanders can handle their slot WR, and Law can definitely take out their TE[they lost Wiggins, right?], but then can Jimmy Williams stick with AD, step for step? That's the biggest problem I see.
Overall Winner: Minnesota

Special Teams
Atlanta's kickoff coverage looks incredible since we made that one mistake vs. NYJ. Adam Jennings handling returning duties is what excites me most, especially because Minnesota has very poor special teams, all around. This isn't even close, in my opinion, at least.
Overall Winner: Atlanta

Points [A push counts as .5 points for both teams]
Atlanta: 6
Minnesota: 3

Score: ATL 24 - 13 MIN

Their right outside linebacker, Chad Greenway, is just the opposite. He gets bowled over by power backs, but he's fast enough to stuff speed RBs.

I'm curious to see where he got this from, I don't recall seeing Greenway getting bowled over but could be I have selective memory.


Also suprised he gave our WR/TE/RB the nod over their secondary, I would have thought with the overall ratings being ATL biased he would have given them no respect.
Hopefully he's right about the AD receiving threat though.

Overall a well written piece,
of crap.

There are too many point here that I disagree with to just let this go:

Atlanta's O-Line over Minnesota's D-Line?? ??? ???

Atlanta's RBs over Minnesota's D-Line??
??? ???

Atlanta's LBs over Minnesota's RBs??
??? ???

Minnesota's WRs & TEs over Atlanta's Seconday (I think I'd give them the nod on this one)


I was just flat out confused by many of these points. EJ Henderson isn't good against speed guys? And how the hell do they know anything about how Greenway plays? He has only seen limited playing time in preseason so far in his career.
??? ??? ???

"lakehubertviking" wrote:

Their right outside linebacker, Chad Greenway, is just the opposite. He gets bowled over by power backs, but he's fast enough to stuff speed RBs.

I'm curious to see where he got this from, I don't recall seeing Greenway getting bowled over but could be I have selective memory.


Also suprised he gave our WR/TE/RB the nod over their secondary, I would have thought with the overall ratings being ATL biased he would have given them no respect.
Hopefully he's right about the AD receiving threat though.

Overall a well written piece,
of crap.

does he realize chad has yet to take a regular season snap?how could he possibly say that?

Okay, I've been saying this for a while now. Minnesota's LB corps is not very good in certain situations. Their middle linebacker, E.J. Henderson, is a really great run stuffer, but only against power runners. He gets beaten badly against speedsters.

I can say honestly that this is false.the reason you ask?Well someone look up the longest run allowed last year by the vikings it was either maurice morris against seattle 20 something yards or cedric benson td against us also not more that 20 something yars.If we let up 50 yard runs every game then you could say that but we allowed 66.1 yards per game on the run so this guy needs to get his facts straight

Man at least our guy (nodakpaul) made it a fair breakdown this falcon guy seems to think atlanta is better against us in all categories.I especially love how they keep saying running outside is impposible because apparantly jamal anderson and john abraham are jason taylor and julius peppers.

I think that a lot of his assumptions about both team's rushing defense are way off.
That's OK, we'll show him the light on Sunday.
FYI, if you follow the link, a little further down is an Atlanta fan who is a lot closer to the truth.
Especially when talking about the running game.

"thevikingfan" wrote:

Okay, I've been saying this for a while now. Minnesota's LB corps is not very good in certain situations. Their middle linebacker, E.J. Henderson, is a really great run stuffer, but only against power runners. He gets beaten badly against speedsters.

I can say honestly that this is false.the reason you ask?Well someone look up the longest run allowed last year by the vikings it was either maurice morris against seattle 20 something yards or cedric benson td against us also not more that 20 something yars.If we let up 50 yard runs every game then you could say that but we allowed 66.1 yards per game on the run so this guy needs to get his facts straight

He obviously did zero research and is going on pure speculation.

I was going to let it go and laugh it off, but there was just too much he got wrong. Horribly wrong.

"thevikingfan" wrote:

Man at least our guy (nodakpaul) made it a fair breakdown this falcon guy seems to think atlanta is better against us in all categories.I especially love how they keep saying running outside is impposible because apparantly jamal anderson and john abraham are jason taylor and julius peppers.

Thanks.

When I do game breakdowns, I at least research the other team.
I try and be fair, although I will admit to a bit of homerism every once in a while.
FYI, I had assumed that Jamaal would be lining up RE and Abraham LE, but from the talk on teh Atlanta board it sounds like they may be flipped for Sunday.
That would give them an advantage in the pass rush because Jamaal will destroy the right side of our line, but they would be at a HUGE disadvantage against the run IMHO.
It would make us very one dimensional, which may be part of the plan...

"NodakPaul" wrote:

"thevikingfan" wrote:

Man at least our guy (nodakpaul) made it a fair breakdown this falcon guy seems to think atlanta is better against us in all categories.I especially love how they keep saying running outside is impposible because apparantly jamal anderson and john abraham are jason taylor and julius peppers.

Thanks.

When I do game breakdowns, I at least research the other team.
I try and be fair, although I will admit to a bit of homerism every once in a while.
FYI, I had assumed that Jamaal would be lining up RE and Abraham LE, but from the talk on teh Atlanta board it sounds like they may be flipped for Sunday.
That would give them an advantage in the pass rush because Jamaal will destroy the right side of our line, but they would be at a HUGE disadvantage against the run IMHO.
It would make us very one dimensional, which may be part of the plan...

although the right side of our line is a question mark you cant say jamall will destroy it.First off he is a rookie and not a lot of rookies get double digit sacks their first season.I do see your concern about the right side but i dont find anything that would tell me that jamall is a superior pass rusher.At least not yet