Why Vikings' 2013 Draft Is Phenomenal
We have all seen fans and experts declare the Vikings's draft this or that (almost all positive reviews), but have we really seen a good justification of it all?
I had an idea today on how to put the Vikings' draft in very a different perspective and to grade the Vikings draft in a more scientifically and accurate manner. As many draft grades are based on one writer's opinion, my approach is very different as it's based on the draft value chart and how each player is valued by the majority of experts.
You can call it... the "Draft Value Contra Majority Projection" Method. Or simply "DVCMP"
The value chart is used by NFL general managers and coaches when making trades on draft day. I have not taken the time to go through all the respected major draft sites, but I have used a few that I generally find very professional as my source1. And as a way to reduce the effect that my bias might have on the end-result, I decided to grade the players toward lower projections rather than higher.
For example, most Vikings fans were not expecting that Cordarrelle Patterson would be available with the Vikings' first pick in round 1 before the draft (some sources had Patterson drafted as high as in the top 10). I gave Patterson a 780 point value here. That's equal to the 22nd pick of the draft which is the pick right before the Vikings' first draft pick.
The total value of a normal draft without any trades (the 23rd selection in each round, 1 through 7)
760+350+155+56+31+18,2+5,4 = 1375,6
The total value for Vikings draft without any trades during the draft
(I'm gonna jump over the boring calculation here) = 2274,8
Okay, the Vikings clearly did a good job rounding up some serious firepower before the draft. Now lets see how it all paned out after an exciting full three days of drafting and a couple of trades:
2200+740+780+200+25+70+31+29+21 = 4096
I went into this without knowing what type of result to expect, but 4096 points out of one single draft is incredible. A normal team would not even get that value after two years of drafting. It's ridiculous! To put it in perspective: If the Vikings were to pick with number 23 every year they would have a combine draft value of 4126 after 3 years. That's just barely more than they had this year alone according to the estimates.
Also important to the evaluation process is whether the Vikings have lost any draft picks in future drafts. In this case, the Vikings have not given up any future picks. (In fact, the Vikings got an extra mid-round pick next year for the Harvin-trade)
Grade for Vikings 2013 draft: A++
1 NFL.com 2013 NFL Draft - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com WalterFootball.com
04-28-2013, 10:16 AM #2
That tends to coincide with what I was talking about when it came to giving up a 2nd, 3rd, 4th & 7th rounder for Patterson.
Some people looked solely at that Draft Value Chart & claimed it was close (640 to 648). That would be true for your average draft where the talent pool drops off after the first few rounds, but I felt with a draft as deep as this one, you can throw that chart out the window or look at it the way you did.
Clearly players were taken and many teams like us got a lot more value with their pick than than the charts show. As an example 780 points of value for Patterson instead of the 640 points the chart shows.
With that said, what would have been the point value of the picks we gave up had we kept them or not have had to given up so much? Certainly it would have been much higher than what the chart shows they were worth.
I'm very happy with those first 3 picks, but at the same time believe what we gave up was probably a lot more than the 648 points.
"If at first you don't succeed, parachuting is not for you"
04-28-2013, 11:14 AM #3
This ignores the Vikings losing Percy Harvin. What is his point value?
The Vikings also gave up depth in a deep draft.
We will not know if any of these three break out or bust for a few seasons. We do not know if any of the later picks will even make the team.
On paper, this draft and offseason has huge potential and huge risk.
04-28-2013, 11:21 AM #4
Can you say second place in the division? YEAH BABY!!!! Lets go!
04-28-2013, 01:01 PM #6
Hey, here's a crazy idea: Lets focus on putting great starters on the field rather than great depth to warm the bench.
04-28-2013, 01:30 PM #9
The same can be said for any trade. Herschel Walker played just fine for the Vikings, but the trade destroyed the Vikings and made Dallas a Superbowl powerhouse. The costs of his services must be taken into account.
Oh no... yes, that's right! We got a potential superstar replaced with two potential back-ups. What a horrific nightmare!
Seriously? We don't know how college player will pan out in the NFL... darn it! I thought the Vikings had a magic crystal ball that could predict the future for every player. This is outrageous! We can't afford to take these risks on great players. I propose that next year we trade our 2nd and 1st round picks for a bunch of 6- and 7-rounders. Hell, throw in some average 2nd and 3rd stringers around the league. At least we know what their capable of. This way we can stock up on a bunch of average college players and the odds for success is greater... greater for being average that is. Who said shoot for the stars? I say we go for average!
Similarly, you give Patterson a high first round point value when he was neither drafted that high, nor were the latest scouting reports giving him that high of a ranking. Again, you are cherry picking the best reports to fit your premise. That does not mean your premise will be incorrect; it just means that the logic proves invalid.
In any case, it is good to be excited about these players. They are all highly rated and have great upside potential. I hope that potential translates into the NFL.
04-28-2013, 02:42 PM #10
I don't know the future. That's why the closest thing to a real evaluation of a team's draft is through how we PREDICT how the players will do in the NFL from studying tape and other variables.
I can't believe I actually have to say this: YES, it's impossible to tell how a player will perform. There's a chance Patterson will do nothing in the NFL and an undrafted guy might be the next Jerry Rice. No one knows the future, but there's a way to get a better look on how it might develop. For example, the chances of Patterson succeeding in the NFL is much bigger than T.J. Moe by evaluating the players. That's why they're drafted where they're drafted.