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  1. #101
    purplepat is offline Hall of Famer
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    Re: Why Shouldn't We Draft a QB In The 1st Round?

    Quote Originally Posted by "Marrdro" #1082175
    Of the 140 or so QB's taken since 2000, the following can be considered to be a cat who can play at the NFL level, 5 of which are first round picks, 15 of which weren't:(Read in 3 columns, year, number picked, player)

    2010 1 Sam Bradford
    2009 1 Matthew Stafford
    5 Mark Sanchez
    17 Josh Freeman
    2008 3 Matt Ryan
    18 Joe Flacco
    2007 36 Kevin Kolb
    2006 11 Jay Cutler
    2005 24 Aaron Rodgers
    106 Kyle Orton
    230 Matt Cassel
    2004 1 Eli Manning
    4 Philip Rivers
    11 Ben Roethlisberger
    90 Matt Schaub
    2003 1 Carson Palmer
    2002 108 David Garrard
    2001 1 Michael Vick
    32 Drew Brees
    2000 199 Tom Brady
    I think you meant to say 5 #1 picks overall, not 5 first round picks. Looks to me like 13 of them were first rounders (Brees was actually the first pick in the second round).

    I also think it's far too early to judge some of the more recent picks in terms of whether they can really "play at an NFL level". TJack's stats are similar to or better than that of Sanchez, Stafford, Kolb and Freeman. Jackson's development as a passer (IMO) has been hindered by Childress' harping on avoiding the mistake/turnover and the presence of a strong running game (something for instance that Detroit doesn't have, so they depend on Stafford to sling the ball a lot), and that some of those teams were already at the bottom and had nothing to lose by letting their young QB learn and develop while making plenty of mistakes.
    SKOL VIKINGS!

  2. #102
    Marrdro's Avatar
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    Re: Why Shouldn't We Draft a QB In The 1st Round?

    Quote Originally Posted by "purplepat" #1082194
    Quote Originally Posted by "Marrdro" #1082175
    Of the 140 or so QB's taken since 2000, the following can be considered to be a cat who can play at the NFL level, 5 of which are first round picks, 15 of which weren't:(Read in 3 columns, year, number picked, player)

    2010 1 Sam Bradford
    2009 1 Matthew Stafford
    5 Mark Sanchez
    17 Josh Freeman
    2008 3 Matt Ryan
    18 Joe Flacco
    2007 36 Kevin Kolb
    2006 11 Jay Cutler
    2005 24 Aaron Rodgers
    106 Kyle Orton
    230 Matt Cassel
    2004 1 Eli Manning
    4 Philip Rivers
    11 Ben Roethlisberger
    90 Matt Schaub
    2003 1 Carson Palmer
    2002 108 David Garrard
    2001 1 Michael Vick
    32 Drew Brees
    2000 199 Tom Brady
    I think you meant to say 5 #1 picks overall, not 5 first round picks. Looks to me like 13 of them were first rounders (Brees was actually the first pick in the second round).

    I also think it's far too early to judge some of the more recent picks in terms of whether they can really "play at an NFL level". TJack's stats are similar to or better than that of Sanchez, Stafford, Kolb and Freeman. Jackson's development as a passer (IMO) has been hindered by Childress' harping on avoiding the mistake/turnover and the presence of a strong running game (something for instance that Detroit doesn't have, so they depend on Stafford to sling the ball a lot), and that some of those teams were already at the bottom and had nothing to lose by letting their young QB learn and develop while making plenty of mistakes.
    You are correct. Thanks for saving me from my own self. I think I made the same good in the original post.

    Thats what I get for doing math in public. B)
    Many many thanks to my talented friend Jos for the new Sig.http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v343/josdin00/Vikings/Marrdro_sig.jpg

  3. #103
    purplepat is offline Hall of Famer
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    Re: Why Shouldn't We Draft a QB In The 1st Round?

    COMP % ATT TD INT SACK RATING YPA
    McCoy CLE 63.8% 127 3 3 15 85.3 7.7
    Cassel KC 59.3% 1402 62 33 110 84.3 6.7
    Campbell OAK 60.6% 1843 63 44 133 81.8 6.7
    Bradford STL 60.6% 442 17 10 24 81.0 6.0
    Orton DEN 58.3% 1911 71 45 121 80.8 6.6
    T. Smith SF 53.0% 215 7 4 21 80.0 7.4
    Jackson MIN 59.2% 573 24 21 43 78.2 6.7
    Kolb PHI 62.2% 283 10 11 15 77.8 6.8
    Henne MIA 61.3% 830 24 29 43 76.2 6.7
    V. Young TEN 57.9% 1190 42 42 75 75.7 6.8
    Freeman TB 56.6% 655 26 24 39 74.6 6.6
    Moore CAR 57.9% 392 16 17 28 73.9 6.7
    Fitzpatrick BUF 57.9% 1089 41 38 85 73.2 6.0
    Sanchez NYJ 54.4% 761 28 31 46 70.5 6.7
    A. Smith SF 56.8% 1414 46 52 116 70.2 6.1
    D. Anderson AZ 52.6% 1436 53 55 72 68.8 6.4
    Stafford DET 54.5% 473 19 21 28 67.1 5.9
    Gradkowski OAK 53.2% 680 20 23 52 65.9 5.7
    Clausen CAR 50.5% 200 1 6 19 55.3 5.3
    SKOL VIKINGS!

  4. #104
    tastywaves's Avatar
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    Re: Why Shouldn't We Draft a QB In The 1st Round?

    Quote Originally Posted by "Marrdro" #1082197
    Quote Originally Posted by "purplepat" #1082194
    Quote Originally Posted by "Marrdro" #1082175
    Of the 140 or so QB's taken since 2000, the following can be considered to be a cat who can play at the NFL level, 5 of which are first round picks, 15 of which weren't:(Read in 3 columns, year, number picked, player)

    2010 1 Sam Bradford
    2009 1 Matthew Stafford
    5 Mark Sanchez
    17 Josh Freeman
    2008 3 Matt Ryan
    18 Joe Flacco
    2007 36 Kevin Kolb
    2006 11 Jay Cutler
    2005 24 Aaron Rodgers
    106 Kyle Orton
    230 Matt Cassel
    2004 1 Eli Manning
    4 Philip Rivers
    11 Ben Roethlisberger
    90 Matt Schaub
    2003 1 Carson Palmer
    2002 108 David Garrard
    2001 1 Michael Vick
    32 Drew Brees
    2000 199 Tom Brady
    I think you meant to say 5 #1 picks overall, not 5 first round picks. Looks to me like 13 of them were first rounders (Brees was actually the first pick in the second round).

    I also think it's far too early to judge some of the more recent picks in terms of whether they can really "play at an NFL level". TJack's stats are similar to or better than that of Sanchez, Stafford, Kolb and Freeman. Jackson's development as a passer (IMO) has been hindered by Childress' harping on avoiding the mistake/turnover and the presence of a strong running game (something for instance that Detroit doesn't have, so they depend on Stafford to sling the ball a lot), and that some of those teams were already at the bottom and had nothing to lose by letting their young QB learn and develop while making plenty of mistakes.
    You are correct. Thanks for saving me from my own self. I think I made the same good in the original post.

    Thats what I get for doing math in public. B)
    So, you're saying that 65% of the viable QB's drafted in the last 10 years were first round picks. Sounds like a pretty good argument to take one in the first round.

  5. #105
    Marrdro's Avatar
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    Re: Why Shouldn't We Draft a QB In The 1st Round?

    Quote Originally Posted by "tastywaves" #1082211
    Quote Originally Posted by "Marrdro" #1082197
    Quote Originally Posted by "purplepat" #1082194
    Quote Originally Posted by "Marrdro" #1082175
    Of the 140 or so QB's taken since 2000, the following can be considered to be a cat who can play at the NFL level, 5 of which are first round picks, 15 of which weren't:(Read in 3 columns, year, number picked, player)

    2010 1 Sam Bradford
    2009 1 Matthew Stafford
    5 Mark Sanchez
    17 Josh Freeman
    2008 3 Matt Ryan
    18 Joe Flacco
    2007 36 Kevin Kolb
    2006 11 Jay Cutler
    2005 24 Aaron Rodgers
    106 Kyle Orton
    230 Matt Cassel
    2004 1 Eli Manning
    4 Philip Rivers
    11 Ben Roethlisberger
    90 Matt Schaub
    2003 1 Carson Palmer
    2002 108 David Garrard
    2001 1 Michael Vick
    32 Drew Brees
    2000 199 Tom Brady
    I think you meant to say 5 #1 picks overall, not 5 first round picks. Looks to me like 13 of them were first rounders (Brees was actually the first pick in the second round).

    I also think it's far too early to judge some of the more recent picks in terms of whether they can really "play at an NFL level". TJack's stats are similar to or better than that of Sanchez, Stafford, Kolb and Freeman. Jackson's development as a passer (IMO) has been hindered by Childress' harping on avoiding the mistake/turnover and the presence of a strong running game (something for instance that Detroit doesn't have, so they depend on Stafford to sling the ball a lot), and that some of those teams were already at the bottom and had nothing to lose by letting their young QB learn and develop while making plenty of mistakes.
    You are correct. Thanks for saving me from my own self. I think I made the same good in the original post.

    Thats what I get for doing math in public. B)
    So, you're saying that 65% of the viable QB's drafted in the last 10 years were first round picks. Sounds like a pretty good argument to take one in the first round.
    I think your math is as flawed as mind. 65% of the ones that worked out yes but what is the percentage of the ones that are viable vs the ones that were actually drafted and then, if you look at the number that have been successfull were we will draft (something below the middle of the draft) that number is alot lower.
    Many many thanks to my talented friend Jos for the new Sig.http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v343/josdin00/Vikings/Marrdro_sig.jpg

  6. #106
    i_bleed_purple's Avatar
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    Re: Why Shouldn't We Draft a QB In The 1st Round?

    Quote Originally Posted by "purplepat" #1082190
    Quote Originally Posted by "i_bleed_purple" #1082051
    Quote Originally Posted by "purplepat" #1082047
    But for every Aaron Rodgers or Philip Rivers you have, you have a Brady (6th), Brees (2nd), Romo (FA), Cassel (7th), Schaub (3rd), Orton (4th), Favre (2nd), or Hasselbeck (6th).
    I couldn't disagree more.

    You're not including guys like Cutler or palmer because of lack of postseason wins on crappy teams, but you include guys like Romo, cassel, Hasselbeck, and Orton?
    Romo has 1 postseason win on a very talented team
    Cassell hasn't played that great since he left NE
    Hasselbeck has always been good, but never great
    Orton is the same as Cassell. Without a top Defense and decent ground game, he's nothing special.

    Also, you include Brees as a later round pick, but remembe,r he was drafted 32nd overall. He would have been a first round pick in todays format.

    So no, for every great first round pick, there is NOT a great late round pick.

    In the list you've made, it spans 20 years, yet your stars only span the past 5.
    Valid points, though going back 20 years for one guy (Favre) isn't that huge of a sin.

    However, my point still is that drafting a QB in the first round...any QB...is still a crapshoot. You've had good to great guys picked in the top 5 (Peyton, Rivers, Ryan, Eli) and total bums (Russell, Smith, Young), and virtually everywhere in between. Yes, the odds of getting a winnner are better in round one than later rounds, but by no means are winners restricted to the top ten or twenty picks in the draft.
    Yes, its a crapshoot, but so is every pick in the draft.

    Lets say you go to vegas, and don't have alot of money to burn, are you going to bet it all on a risky bet, or take the better percentage one?

    That's what you get. I'd say roughly 50% of first round quarterbacks are at least decent. That's a step up from what we have.
    After the first round, that number drops off considerably.

    the numbers are posted here somewhere, I'm not going to look them up.

    And, once again, given the talent level on this team, I'd probably be more comfortable with a "vet" like Jackson leading this team in 2011 than I would a raw rookie regardless of whether he is a first round pick or not.
    Hows that rookie doing in St. Louis vs. the "Vet" they used to have?

  7. #107
    kevoncox's Avatar
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    Re: Why Shouldn't We Draft a QB In The 1st Round?

    To be honest i still don't think that you guys get it.
    I will try to say it again a bit more clearly.

    1) Drafting any player is a crapshoot.
    I hate when people point to the fact that X amount of Qbs have flamed out. Can't you say the same for WRs, DTs, DL, LBs, etc. In fact, you can!!!!! I wager the failure rate of first down Qbs are just as poor as most other positions in the draft.

    Lets take a quick look at the 2006 draft.
    1 Mario Williams Defensive End - Stud
    2 Reggie Bush Running back - Unique back some might consider a bust
    3 Vince Young Quarterback - Great win%
    4 D'Brickashaw Ferguson Offensive Tackle - Bust for where he was drafted
    5 Green Bay Packers A. J. Hawk Linebacker Bust
    6 San Francisco 49ers Vernon Davis Tight End - Once a bust- Now a Stud
    7 Oakland Raiders Michael Huff Safety - Bust
    8 Buffalo Bills Donte Whitner Safety - Bust
    9 Detroit Lions Ernie Sims Linebacker - Bust
    10 Matt Leinart Quarterback - Bust
    11 Jay Cutler Quarterback
    12 Haloti Ngata Defensive Tackle
    13 Kamerion Wimbley Defensive End - Bust
    14 Brodrick Bunkley Defensive Tackle - Bust
    15 Tye Hill Cornerback - Bust
    16 Jason Allen Safety - Bust
    17 Chad Greenway Linebacker
    18 Bobby Carpenter Linebacker - Bust

    Just an example but as you can see players that don't live up to the potential in all positions. However, QB is a need why not role the dice in the round with the most talent?

    2) I don't understand why people think we have to draft a 1st round QB and start him right away. YOu need to prep for the future. Draft a guy and sit him for 3 years if need be and then play him. However, lets not draft a guy in the 6th and try to coach him up in 3 years. If the talent isn't there...the talent isn't there.

    2) The argument is not so much about drafting a QB in the first round but more about the fact that QB is the most important position in sports but most of you all seem happy to continue to draft a 6th rounder in hopes of them being Tom Brady :laugh:.

  8. #108
    ndnorseman is offline Pro-Bowler
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    Re: Why Shouldn't We Draft a QB In The 1st Round?

    Quote Originally Posted by "kevoncox" #1082254
    To be honest i still don't think that you guys get it.
    I will try to say it again a bit more clearly.

    1) Drafting any player is a crapshoot.
    I hate when people point to the fact that X amount of Qbs have flamed out. Can't you say the same for WRs, DTs, DL, LBs, etc. In fact, you can!!!!! I wager the failure rate of first down Qbs are just as poor as most other positions in the draft.

    Lets take a quick look at the 2006 draft.
    1 Mario Williams Defensive End - Stud
    2 Reggie Bush Running back - Unique back some might consider a bust
    3 Vince Young Quarterback - Great win%
    4 D'Brickashaw Ferguson Offensive Tackle - Bust for where he was drafted
    5 Green Bay Packers A. J. Hawk Linebacker Bust
    6 San Francisco 49ers Vernon Davis Tight End - Once a bust- Now a Stud
    7 Oakland Raiders Michael Huff Safety - Bust
    8 Buffalo Bills Donte Whitner Safety - Bust
    9 Detroit Lions Ernie Sims Linebacker - Bust
    10 Matt Leinart Quarterback - Bust
    11 Jay Cutler Quarterback
    12 Haloti Ngata Defensive Tackle
    13 Kamerion Wimbley Defensive End - Bust
    14 Brodrick Bunkley Defensive Tackle - Bust
    15 Tye Hill Cornerback - Bust
    16 Jason Allen Safety - Bust
    17 Chad Greenway Linebacker
    18 Bobby Carpenter Linebacker - Bust

    Just an example but as you can see players that don't live up to the potential in all positions. However, QB is a need why not role the dice in the round with the most talent?

    2) I don't understand why people think we have to draft a 1st round QB and start him right away. YOu need to prep for the future. Draft a guy and sit him for 3 years if need be and then play him. However, lets not draft a guy in the 6th and try to coach him up in 3 years. If the talent isn't there...the talent isn't there.

    2) The argument is not so much about drafting a QB in the first round but more about the fact that QB is the most important position in sports but most of you all seem happy to continue to draft a 6th rounder in hopes of them being Tom Brady :laugh:.

    Could have been a bit clearer, kevon...but I get your point, and agree with you.

  9. #109
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    Re: Why Shouldn't We Draft a QB In The 1st Round?

    Quote Originally Posted by "kevoncox" #1082254
    To be honest i still don't think that you guys get it.
    I will try to say it again a bit more clearly.

    1) Drafting any player is a crapshoot.
    I hate when people point to the fact that X amount of Qbs have flamed out. Can't you say the same for WRs, DTs, DL, LBs, etc. In fact, you can!!!!! I wager the failure rate of first down Qbs are just as poor as most other positions in the draft.

    Lets take a quick look at the 2006 draft.
    1 Mario Williams Defensive End - Stud
    2 Reggie Bush Running back - Unique back some might consider a bust
    3 Vince Young Quarterback - Great win%
    4 D'Brickashaw Ferguson Offensive Tackle - Bust for where he was drafted
    5 Green Bay Packers A. J. Hawk Linebacker Bust
    6 San Francisco 49ers Vernon Davis Tight End - Once a bust- Now a Stud
    7 Oakland Raiders Michael Huff Safety - Bust
    8 Buffalo Bills Donte Whitner Safety - Bust
    9 Detroit Lions Ernie Sims Linebacker - Bust
    10 Matt Leinart Quarterback - Bust
    11 Jay Cutler Quarterback
    12 Haloti Ngata Defensive Tackle
    13 Kamerion Wimbley Defensive End - Bust
    14 Brodrick Bunkley Defensive Tackle - Bust
    15 Tye Hill Cornerback - Bust
    16 Jason Allen Safety - Bust
    17 Chad Greenway Linebacker
    18 Bobby Carpenter Linebacker - Bust
    I'm going to disagree with many of your assessments

    A good number of those players are good players, just not superstars you seem to expect.
    Guys like Ferguson, Whitner, Cutler, Ngata, Wimbley, Bunkley and Carpenter are all decent players, some, like Whitner and Carpenter play on messes of a team, so its hard to really stand out, but they are decent players.
    Just an example but as you can see players that don't live up to the potential in all positions. However, QB is a need why not role the dice in the round with the most talent?
    Agree 100%

    2) I don't understand why people think we have to draft a 1st round QB and start him right away. YOu need to prep for the future. Draft a guy and sit him for 3 years if need be and then play him. However, lets not draft a guy in the 6th and try to coach him up in 3 years. If the talent isn't there...the talent isn't there.
    Agreed again!
    3) The argument is not so much about drafting a QB in the first round but more about the fact that QB is the most important position in sports but most of you all seem happy to continue to draft a 6th rounder in hopes of them being Tom Brady :laugh:.
    once more, well done. I've been harping this for the last few years. People here are content with drafting late round guys, because all of a sudden they're experts at recognizing talent and predicting where the sleepers are.

    Lets go back a few years to the TJ draft shall we?
    in 2006, popular QB choices outside the top few were: Brodie Croyle and Omar jacobs. Wow, those guys really panned out.
    2007: Troy Smith, Jordan Palmer, Drew Stanton
    2008: Brian Brohm, Dennis Dixon, Eric Ainge, Colt Brennan, Andre Woodson,
    2009: Nate Davis, Curtis Painter,
    2010: outside of Clausen and McCoy, there was: John Skelton, Dan LeFevor, Tony Pike

    And people thought that drafting any of the above QB's would solve our QB woes. There were other late round QB's as well, but I didn't include them because I don't recall people claiming we should draft them. They also haven't done anything in the league.

    I would say the most successful of that bunch is a tossup between Troy Smith and Dennis Dixon. MAYBE one of those QB's will go on to be a starter for a while. Possibly. i don't like htose odds.

  10. #110
    Marrdro's Avatar
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    Re: Why Shouldn't We Draft a QB In The 1st Round?

    Quote Originally Posted by "kevoncox" #1082254
    2) I don't understand why people think we have to draft a 1st round QB and start him right away. YOu need to prep for the future. Draft a guy and sit him for 3 years if need be and then play him.
    Because its the norm.

    Most teams don't want to pay a kid the money he is gonna get and then let him grow from the bench the right way.

    However, lets not draft a guy in the 6th and try to coach him up in 3 years. If the talent isn't there...the talent isn't there.
    But you can expect to take a kid with the 6th pick and groom him, but I surely expect it to take more than 3 years. If the kid is talented enough that he can get NFL ready in 3 years he should have gone in the first 2 rounds. Anyone after that, 4-6 years.

    Quick question........

    What, if any, impact do you think the spread offense has had on how staffs evaluate and groom QB's coming into the league?

    I think you can almost add 1 year to the timeline (whatever you think it is) to get a kid ready for the next level.
    Many many thanks to my talented friend Jos for the new Sig.http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v343/josdin00/Vikings/Marrdro_sig.jpg

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