Thread: Why I am excited about the siging of Rhys Lloyd

I am a strong believe in the touchback. I think that taking away an opponent's ability to return a kickoff has a significant effect on the outcome of the game. But I never had any concrete evidence to back up that belief.

Until now.

The Value of a Touchback

Back to touchbacks. Using the concept of Expected Points (EP), the average point value of a first down at each field position(see graph below), we can estimate the nominal value of a touchback. The 20 yd line represents 0.1 EP, and the weighted average of the distribution of non-touchback field position is 0.9 EP. That's a value of 0.8 EP per touchback. (This includes turnovers and penalties.)

This is a GREAT article for those of us who love statistical analysis. Basically, it is saying that each touchback is worth 0.8 of a point. That could mean a swing of 4 points in a game where you kickoff five times. More than a quarter of NFL games were decided by four points or fewer last year.

This is a very telling graph:
[img size=400]http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3463/3889253555_cf4e78929a_o.png[/img]

A couple of interesting notes. First, the spike at the 60 (a team's own 40 yd line) is from kicks out of bounds. Second, I think it's interesting that of long returns, there are many more that make it to the opponent's 30 or 20 or so than make it only to just past midfield. Then, if a returner makes it past the 20, he's probably going to make it all the way to the end zone.

Now there are a couple of things that you can take away from this article. First, a FG kicker with accurate range past 35 yards is more valuable than a KOS in terms of Expected Points. However, there is certainly value in a KOS, possible more than that 6th or 7th WR on the roster. I am pumped that we have one on our roster.

I like the signing too. He has a rating of 97 kick power in Madden '10 :laugh:
Looks like Rhys Lloyd will be the perfect compliment to Ryan Longwell.

HEY wrote:

I like the signing too. He has a rating of 97 kick power in Madden '10 :laugh:
Looks like Rhys Lloyd will be the perfect compliment to Ryan Longwell.

Seems like a sure fire positive move for the team. They should definitely be able to manage the roster spots on gameday.

I am really surprised more teams don't go this route.

Thanks for the read my friend.

All I can say is that if one harkens back and takes notice of what the Aint's did to us on KO's, basically nullifying PH's return threat, and what they did to us in OT, one can easily see the value of a "Touchback" and this is a step in the right direction to fix our return woes, atleast on KO's.

Now all we have to do is to get Kluwless to kick to the right spots, with hang time, this year a bit more consistently and we will see a continue improvement when it comes to giving up huge returns.

On a side note, this is one of those areas a few on here have been hacking on me about each and every year. LOL, I wonder if they will bring thier stop watches to a game again this year.

NodakPaul wrote:

I am a strong believe in the touchback. I think that taking away an opponent's ability to return a kickoff has a significant effect on the outcome of the game. But I never had any concrete evidence to back up that belief.

Until now.

The Value of a Touchback

Back to touchbacks. Using the concept of Expected Points (EP), the average point value of a first down at each field position(see graph below), we can estimate the nominal value of a touchback. The 20 yd line represents 0.1 EP, and the weighted average of the distribution of non-touchback field position is 0.9 EP. That's a value of 0.8 EP per touchback. (This includes turnovers and penalties.)

This is a GREAT article for those of us who love statistical analysis. Basically, it is saying that each touchback is worth 0.8 of a point. That could mean a swing of 4 points in a game where you kickoff five times. More than a quarter of NFL games were decided by four points or fewer last year.

This is a very telling graph:
[img size=400]http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3463/3889253555_cf4e78929a_o.png[/img]

A couple of interesting notes. First, the spike at the 60 (a team's own 40 yd line) is from kicks out of bounds. Second, I think it's interesting that of long returns, there are many more that make it to the opponent's 30 or 20 or so than make it only to just past midfield. Then, if a returner makes it past the 20, he's probably going to make it all the way to the end zone.

Now there are a couple of things that you can take away from this article. First, a FG kicker with accurate range past 35 yards is more valuable than a KOS in terms of Expected Points. However, there is certainly value in a KOS, possible more than that 6th or 7th WR on the roster. I am pumped that we have one on our roster.

Amen- great find!! I totally agree our ST lost a few games for us last year and we didn't lose many! I think htis will help us out immensely

Nice article. My biggest concern is having roster three roster spots consumed by kickers. Arguments can be made either way. It all depends on how the injury bug plays out.

I posted a link to that when Lloyd was scheduled to visit.
I made no comment and it was ignored.

I like the article though and agree with the conclusion.

There was another site that was a wagering site with the same conclusion, I found a few years back. I can't find it now.
But I'm convinced at the value of a touchback.

Takes a lot of the potential question marks on special teams out of the equation, and gives the defense a much better chance to be successful.

Who cares. They are kickers. Have one job. Get it done or get off my team.

Prophet wrote:

Nice article. My biggest concern is having roster three roster spots consumed by kickers. Arguments can be made either way. It all depends on how the injury bug plays out.

Who is our 3rd?

12purplepride28 wrote:

Prophet wrote:

Nice article. My biggest concern is having roster three roster spots consumed by kickers. Arguments can be made either way. It all depends on how the injury bug plays out.

Who is our 3rd?

Punter.