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  1. #21
    BleedinPandG is offline Coach
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    Re: Vikings - Saints tie-breaker could run deep

    "BloodyHorns82" wrote:
    "BleedinPandG" wrote:
    "BloodyHorns82" wrote:
    "TNViking" wrote:
    "hav0x" wrote:
    [quote author=TNViking link=topic=54443.msg1022213#msg1022213 date=1259362915]
    We basically lose on strength of victory unless the Saints lose to an NFC team.
    Let's hope we don't tie or they lose to Dallas (Ouch, I hate even saying that)
    Did you even read the article? Strength of victory is based on the records of the teams that a team has beaten. If the teams that we play and the saints play keep performing at about the same level we will win the tiebreaker. Losing to an NFC team would just make it easier.
    I've read several such articles and
    the sites I looked up SoV and SoS in had the Saints beating us easily (our SoV and SoV league-wide were near the bottom) Still it matters not.
    We just need to take care of business.
    This is the most telling paragraph regarding the SOV, at least IMO.

    The Saints’ lead in this tie-breaker likely won’t last. Under the identical 10-1 scenarios, the remaining Vikings schedule is much tougher than that of the Saints. The Vikings play Arizona (7-3), Cincinnati (7-3), Carolina (4-6), Chicago (4-7) and the Giants (6-5) – a combined record of 28-24. The Saints final five are Washington (3-7), Atlanta (5-5), Dallas (8-3), Tampa Bay (1-9) and Carolina (4-6) – a combined record of 21-30. In the end, this could be the tie-breaker that would determine who gets home field advantage.
    Actually I think that's an over simplification... my understanding of Strength of Victory is that it's the final records of the teams you've beaten not their record at the time you defeated them... after this week, if we're each 10 - 1, there will be about 7 or 8 teams for each of us that have 5 games left that could really swing things in 1 direction or the other... does Detroit go on a winning streak?
    Does GB lose out?
    Etc etc...
    It's not oversimplifying things...it's a look at the tie breakers right now.
    The records shown are not what they were at the time we beat them, it is their current record.
    This is only a premature look at the tiebreaker and a look at what teams could play a factor down the stretch.
    [/quote]

    You're looking at a small snap shot (the 5 teams we each have left to play) and ignoring the 5 games the other 9 teams we've each beaten will also be playing... there's going to be over 100 games played by the combined 20 or so teams that will have been beaten by the Vikings and/or Saints in the next 5 weeks... the record in those games will likely go much farther than the simple 7 win differential currently between the teams the Vikes would have to beat versus what the Saints would have to beat to finish 15 - 1.

    Frankly, I think the strength of Victory is BS.
    It should be their record at the time of victory.
    The current tie breaker ignores the ebs and flows of seasons.
    Would you rather be playing TN back in week 4 or this week?
    Would you rather have played the Giants and Jets early in the season or now?
    Some teams get stronger, others get weaker. I guess it is what it is.
    The true measure of a man is what he'd do knowing he'd never be found out.

  2. #22
    raptorman is offline Starter
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    Re: Vikings - Saints tie-breaker could run deep

    "TNViking" wrote:
    "raptorman" wrote:
    So for an update on the SOV for the Saints and Vikings.
    Since this changes every week I put together a spreadsheet to track it. I know, I have nothing better to do with my time. But this way everyone will know were we sit.
    If the either team loses to a NFC team it pretty much becomes moot. Unless they both lose to a NFC team.
    Anyway here it is.
    Currently, not including the NE game the Saints have the Vikings on SOV of games already played.
    However, for total games the Vikings have the edge.
    I'll update each week.
    Thanks for the update.
    Any way you can post the spreadsheet link (for us numbers geeks)
    I will see what I can come up with.

  3. #23
    NodakPaul's Avatar
    NodakPaul is offline Jersey Retired
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    Re: Vikings - Saints tie-breaker could run deep

    "raptorman" wrote:
    "TNViking" wrote:
    "raptorman" wrote:
    So for an update on the SOV for the Saints and Vikings.
    Since this changes every week I put together a spreadsheet to track it. I know, I have nothing better to do with my time. But this way everyone will know were we sit.
    If the either team loses to a NFC team it pretty much becomes moot. Unless they both lose to a NFC team.
    Anyway here it is.
    Currently, not including the NE game the Saints have the Vikings on SOV of games already played.
    However, for total games the Vikings have the edge.
    I'll update each week.
    Thanks for the update.
    Any way you can post the spreadsheet link (for us numbers geeks)
    I will see what I can come up with.
    I'd like to see it too.
    I also have a spreadsheet, but my numbers are a little different than yours.
    Here is what I have for each team as of right now:

    Vikings
    Record 90.91% 10-1
    Conference Opponents 100.00% 8-8
    Common Games 100.00% 3-3
    Strength of Victory 34.86% 38-109
    Strength of Schedule 38.06% 59-155

    Saints
    Record 100.00% 10-0
    Conference Opponents 100.00% 7-7
    Common Games 100.00% 4-4
    Strength of Victory 37.27% 41-110
    Strength of Schedule 41.55% 59-142
    Zeus wrote:
    When are you going to realize that picking out the 20 bad throws this year and ignoring the 300 good ones does not make your point?

    =Z=

  4. #24
    raptorman is offline Starter
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    Re: Vikings - Saints tie-breaker could run deep

    So here's a link.
    If you see anything that is wrong let me know. I also do not have tonight game in there. I will update it after the game.
    I did this last night about 2:00AM so there may be a mistake.
    It's pretty raw, but I have put the SOV in red.
    Google won't let you do decimals to 3 spaces so I did percentage's to two decimals.


    http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?k...XTlJjcVE&hl=en

  5. #25
    midgensa's Avatar
    midgensa is offline Jersey Retired Free Kick Specialist 3 Champion
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    Re: Vikings - Saints tie-breaker could run deep

    Eh ... I do it the old fashioned way ... by hand.

    Right now it seems we have it down.

    *I am running this based on the Saints LOSING to New England tonight. If they win tonight it is suffice to say the tie-breaker will not get to the strength of victory number unless both teams have some slips later.

    Vikes
    10-1 overall
    8-0 NFC
    3-0 vs. Common opponents with 2 games left (Panthers and Giants)
    Strength of Victory is 39-71 (35.45%) Remaining schedule is 29-26 though (52.72%)

    Saints
    10-1 overall*
    7-0 NFC
    4-0 vs. Common opponents with 1 game left (Panthers)
    Strength of Victory is 41-69 (37.27%) but remaining schedule is only 22-33 (40%)

    Looking at the remaining schedule. IF the Saints lose tonight and IF both teams run the table from their on out, it appears our strength of victory will catch and surpass the Saints.

  6. #26
    BloodyHorns82's Avatar
    BloodyHorns82 is offline Jersey Retired Feed The Frog Champion
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    Re: Vikings - Saints tie-breaker could run deep

    "raptorman" wrote:
    So here's a link.
    If you see anything that is wrong let me know. I also do not have tonight game in there. I will update it after the game.
    I did this last night about 2:00AM so there may be a mistake.
    It's pretty raw, but I have put the SOV in red.
    Google won't let you do decimals to 3 spaces so I did percentage's to two decimals.


    http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?k...XTlJjcVE&hl=en
    I believe Pittsburgh needs to be removed from your SOV calculation list since we did not get a victory against them.
    Nicely done though...I love the spreadsheet.
    ;D

  7. #27
    raptorman is offline Starter
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    Re: Vikings - Saints tie-breaker could run deep

    "BloodyHorns82" wrote:
    "raptorman" wrote:
    So here's a link.
    If you see anything that is wrong let me know. I also do not have tonight game in there. I will update it after the game.
    I did this last night about 2:00AM so there may be a mistake.
    It's pretty raw, but I have put the SOV in red.
    Google won't let you do decimals to 3 spaces so I did percentage's to two decimals.


    http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?k...XTlJjcVE&hl=en
    I believe Pittsburgh needs to be removed from your SOV calculation list since we did not get a victory against them.
    Nicely done though...I love the spreadsheet.
    ;D
    They are not included in the SOV totals.
    If you notice the top numbers are for total W-L and the
    the SOV wins is 6 short of that number.

    I will tweek it some more the next time I update it.

  8. #28
    midgensa's Avatar
    midgensa is offline Jersey Retired Free Kick Specialist 3 Champion
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    Re: Vikings - Saints tie-breaker could run deep

    "raptorman" wrote:
    "BloodyHorns82" wrote:
    "raptorman" wrote:
    So here's a link.
    If you see anything that is wrong let me know. I also do not have tonight game in there. I will update it after the game.
    I did this last night about 2:00AM so there may be a mistake.
    It's pretty raw, but I have put the SOV in red.
    Google won't let you do decimals to 3 spaces so I did percentage's to two decimals.


    http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?k...XTlJjcVE&hl=en
    I believe Pittsburgh needs to be removed from your SOV calculation list since we did not get a victory against them.
    Nicely done though...I love the spreadsheet.
    ;D
    They are not included in the SOV totals.
    If you notice the top numbers are for total W-L and the
    the SOV wins is 6 short of that number.

    I will tweek it some more the next time I update it.
    You have Atlanta wrong in the SOV future.

  9. #29
    BloodyHorns82's Avatar
    BloodyHorns82 is offline Jersey Retired Feed The Frog Champion
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    Re: Vikings - Saints tie-breaker could run deep

    "raptorman" wrote:
    "BloodyHorns82" wrote:
    "raptorman" wrote:
    So here's a link.
    If you see anything that is wrong let me know. I also do not have tonight game in there. I will update it after the game.
    I did this last night about 2:00AM so there may be a mistake.
    It's pretty raw, but I have put the SOV in red.
    Google won't let you do decimals to 3 spaces so I did percentage's to two decimals.


    http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?k...XTlJjcVE&hl=en
    I believe Pittsburgh needs to be removed from your SOV calculation list since we did not get a victory against them.
    Nicely done though...I love the spreadsheet.
    ;D
    They are not included in the SOV totals.
    If you notice the top numbers are for total W-L and the
    the SOV wins is 6 short of that number.

    I will tweek it some more the next time I update it.
    Agghhh....My bad then.
    Carry on.

  10. #30
    raptorman is offline Starter
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    Re: Vikings - Saints tie-breaker could run deep

    "midgensa" wrote:
    You have Atlanta wrong in the SOV future.
    Fixed it. Thanks.

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