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  1. #1
    NodakPaul's Avatar
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    Vikings - Regression toward the mean

    Regression toward the mean.

    To those of us who have roots in statistics or psychology, this is a familiar term.
    In fact, it is recognized as a statistical inevitability.
    In a nutshell, it means that if somebody or something preforms better or worse than expected, the likelihood of them preforming closer to their expected ability the next time is increased.

    I give you the 2006 Minnesota Vikings.

    Before the season started, a common (non-purple tainted) prediction was to see the Vikings finish 9-7.
    That was fair given the fact that we had a rookie coaching staff and a tough first half of the season.
    After the loss of our only proven(?) WR, things looked grim.
    Ending October with a 2-5 record was not a long shot.

    But what happened?
    With one game left in October, the Vikes were 4-2, and riding the coattails of a new look defense to a few very unlikely wins.
    At once, the Vikes became a trendy pick to move up in the so-called power polls.
    Fans, who previously had been hoping for a wild card birth, were now planning out playoff scenarios where we took the NFC North.
    Suddenly everybody forgot the fact that Vikings were still a team with a rookie coaching staff and very little offensive talent.

    And then statistics reared its ugly head.
    Statistics predicted that the Vikings would begin to preform closer to their ability.
    Statistics predicted that bonehead special teams plays and late fourth quarter turnovers that hand the game to the Vikes would slow down.
    Statistics predicted that the Vikes would return to the form of a 9-7 team.
    And we did.

    Now after three losses fans are no longer talking about who we will face in the playoffs, but what changes we should make once we are eliminated from the playoffs.
    I say don't sell the Vikes short just yet.


    The fact of the matter is that the Vikings are neither as good as the first six games indicated, nor as bad as the last three would imply.
    They are somewhere in the middle.
    I still believe that we will finish our season with a winning record, even if that means we have to finish out the season 5-2 (definitely doable).
    We will probably lose to another "beatable" team during that stretch, but also probably beat an unlikely team.


    Whether or not that will be good enough to make a playoff run remains to be seen, althought statistically the odds aren't in our favor.
    Zeus wrote:
    When are you going to realize that picking out the 20 bad throws this year and ignoring the 300 good ones does not make your point?

    =Z=

  2. #2
    cyviking's Avatar
    cyviking is offline Starter Spectromancer: Gamer's Pack Champion
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    Re: Vikings - Regression toward the mean

    I like your optimism but I think that this is a bad team and we are below the mean. There is potential for this team to come out and play good but generally it just isnt there anymore.

    Ive gone from saying 10-6 after week 2, to 6-10 now. that makes me a sad panda
    "Lurker" turned Poster
    2005-06 The Lost Vikings

  3. #3
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    Re: Vikings - Regression toward the mean

    And that road back to respectability starts TODAY...BUT if our team leaders don't believe that, we might as well hang it up now!
    BANNED OR DEAD...I'LL TAKE EITHER ONE

  4. #4
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    Re: Vikings - Regression toward the mean

    Yes, it can be visualized as a pendulum, with the assumption that the when the pendulum is idle the special teams, O, and D are all performing well.
    It will happen, we just need some WD-40 and possibly a little bit of duct tape to make the proper repairs before the regression toward an acceptable mean is accomplished.
    Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please. Mark Twain

  5. #5
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    Re: Vikings - Regression toward the mean

    I agree that we'll get beat by a team that we should beat but I don't agree we'll beat a team that we shouldn't beat.
    The team has lost its kick in a hurry.
    I think we'll manage 8-8 which would be fine by me because that's what I expected entering the season.
    The best part of my day is when I get down on my knees, with my head in my hands, and thank GOD for everything he has given me.

  6. #6
    Del Rio Guest

    Re: Vikings - Regression toward the mean

    It really depends. Football is a sport played with heart and confidence. Statistics does not include the human element into the equation in this example. It seems the team is walking the tight rope of a total melt down. If they get it in their heads that they cannot win weather it be because of a QB or a system it is over.

    I said two weeks ago that if we drop a few games that they will be looking for a scapegoat. I think we have arrived at that point in time.

  7. #7
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    Re: Vikings - Regression toward the mean

    "LuckyVike" wrote:
    I agree that we'll get beat by a team that we should beat but I don't agree we'll beat a team that we shouldn't beat.
    The team has lost its kick in a hurry.
    I think we'll manage 8-8 which would be fine by me because that's what I expected entering the season.
    8-8 SUCKS!!!
    It will NEVER be fine by me...we have the talent...we should be winning these games!!!
    >
    BANNED OR DEAD...I'LL TAKE EITHER ONE

  8. #8
    Zeus's Avatar
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    Re: Vikings - Regression toward the mean

    "Del" wrote:
    It really depends. Football is a sport played with heart and confidence. Statistics does not include the human element into the equation in this example. It seems the team is walking the tight rope of a total melt down. If they get it in their heads that they cannot win weather it be because of a QB or a system it is over.

    I said two weeks ago that if we drop a few games that they will be looking for a scapegoat. I think we have arrived at that point in time.
    Did someone mention Fred Smoot?

    =Z=

    Thanks to Josdin for the awesome sig!

  9. #9
    Del Rio Guest

    Re: Vikings - Regression toward the mean

    "AWZeus" wrote:
    "Del" wrote:
    It really depends. Football is a sport played with heart and confidence. Statistics does not include the human element into the equation in this example. It seems the team is walking the tight rope of a total melt down. If they get it in their heads that they cannot win weather it be because of a QB or a system it is over.

    I said two weeks ago that if we drop a few games that they will be looking for a scapegoat. I think we have arrived at that point in time.
    Did someone mention Fred Smoot?

    =Z=
    There is a big difference between a scapegoat for the fans and one for the team.

  10. #10
    Zeus's Avatar
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    Re: Vikings - Regression toward the mean

    "Del" wrote:
    "AWZeus" wrote:
    "Del" wrote:
    It really depends. Football is a sport played with heart and confidence. Statistics does not include the human element into the equation in this example. It seems the team is walking the tight rope of a total melt down. If they get it in their heads that they cannot win weather it be because of a QB or a system it is over.

    I said two weeks ago that if we drop a few games that they will be looking for a scapegoat. I think we have arrived at that point in time.
    Did someone mention Fred Smoot?

    =Z=
    There is a big difference between a scapegoat for the fans and one for the team.
    Well - teammates can certainly look to the poor tackling of Smoot (the man tries that shoulder-no arms tackle several times a game) and find some blame.
    He's not the one getting beat for deep scores, sure.

    I've just kinda gotten in the habit of blaming Smoot for everything which goes wrong in the world.


    Suicide bomb in Baghdad?
    Damn that Smoot!
    Tornado rips through an Oklahoma town?
    I know Smoot missed the tackle!
    This stupid cough I've had for a week?
    If only Smoot could cure me!

    =Z=

    Thanks to Josdin for the awesome sig!

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