Thread: TJ performance vs defensive rankings

"UffDaVikes" wrote:

"singersp" wrote:

"UffDaVikes" wrote:

"gagarr" wrote:

"NodakPaul" wrote:

[quote author=gagarr link=topic=45241.msg783953#msg783953 date=1211756509]
I'm not counting SD game as a TJ win, as when he left the game when the
Vikes were down by 14 and Bollinger (QB rating 133.3) came in to win the game
SD





14




14




65.6

Umm, when TJ left with the injury, the score was 7-7.
The Vikings were never down by 14 in that game.
The most they ever trailed by by 7, and that was for a grand total of six minutes the whole game.

I was about to come on and praise you for collecting this data.
I don't think it is relevant in any way, but it is fun to look at.
But when I spot a huge inaccuracy like that, the rest of the data becomes a little suspect as well.
But I think it all looks pretty legit, and certainly took a while to put together.
Thanks!

Regardless, I completely agree with the following statement:
"gagarr" wrote:

I've not had a lot of confidence in TJ, but seeing the above I realized that TJ
isn't bad, he just hasn't matured enough as a QB to be able to beat top third
defenses.
Which is totally reasonable.
BUT is able to consistantly beat the
teams he should beat, bottom third D's, which is a good sign to me.

I think that TJack is an average QB at best right now.
That means he should beat the teams with the poor defenses, and struggle against the teams with the top defense.
So this falls right in line with my expectations.
Luckily, with our defense, I think that an average QB is all that we need...

You are absolutely right Nodak, my mistake, it was SD 14 vikes 7.
That addition was done quickly, when I saw the discrepancy between TJ and Bollingers QB rating.
I don't think it invalidates the exclusion, given that TJ didn't finish the first half and what AD did in the 2nd half once TJ was out.

Thanks for the fact checking!
Please feel free to check the rest... I'm not perfect and I did it somewhat quickly.
I might of wanted to say, "Vikes were down by 14 - 7"

More importantly it showed that Bollinger can come in and lead the team to victory over one of the top teams in the league so we should keep him as the #2 qb, have Gus as #3 and put Booty on the practice squad.

Booty would never make it to the practice squad. He'd be snatched up ala Thigpen in a heartbeat.

Why, he's just a 5th round roster filler. If teams wanted him they had several opportunities to get him. ;D
[/quote]

They had every opportunity to snag Thigpen in the draft as well.

"UffDaVikes" wrote:

"gagarr" wrote:

"NodakPaul" wrote:

"gagarr" wrote:

I'm not counting SD game as a TJ win, as when he left the game when the
Vikes were down by 14 and Bollinger (QB rating 133.3) came in to win the game
SD






14




14




65.6

Umm, when TJ left with the injury, the score was 7-7.
The Vikings were never down by 14 in that game.
The most they ever trailed by by 7, and that was for a grand total of six minutes the whole game.

I was about to come on and praise you for collecting this data.
I don't think it is relevant in any way, but it is fun to look at.
But when I spot a huge inaccuracy like that, the rest of the data becomes a little suspect as well.
But I think it all looks pretty legit, and certainly took a while to put together.
Thanks!

Regardless, I completely agree with the following statement:
"gagarr" wrote:

I've not had a lot of confidence in TJ, but seeing the above I realized that TJ
isn't bad, he just hasn't matured enough as a QB to be able to beat top third
defenses.
Which is totally reasonable.
BUT is able to consistantly beat the
teams he should beat, bottom third D's, which is a good sign to me.

I think that TJack is an average QB at best right now.
That means he should beat the teams with the poor defenses, and struggle against the teams with the top defense.
So this falls right in line with my expectations.
Luckily, with our defense, I think that an average QB is all that we need...

You are absolutely right Nodak, my mistake, it was SD 14 vikes 7.
That addition was done quickly, when I saw the discrepancy between TJ and Bollingers QB rating.
I don't think it invalidates the exclusion, given that TJ didn't finish the first half and what AD did in the 2nd half once TJ was out.

Thanks for the fact checking!
Please feel free to check the rest... I'm not perfect and I did it somewhat quickly.
I might of wanted to say, "Vikes were down by 14 - 7"

More importantly it showed that Bollinger can come in and lead the team to victory over one of the top teams in the league so we should keep him as the #2 qb, have Gus as #3 and put Booty on the practice squad.

Bollinger's QB rating was quite nice (133.3) but only had 10 attempts going 7 of 10 for 95yds and 1TD.
AD carried the load in the 2nd half.

Also, Bollinger played the entire GB game (score 34-0 GB) and was 16 of 26 for 176 0TD 1INT.
Also, GB played the run holding AD to 45 yds and CT to 37yds.
Bollinger would not be my first choice.

Bollinger is a 6 yr vet and has a career rating of 75.2 and has only started 10 games and played in 19.
If it wasn't for the need to have a mentor like Gus, Bollinger might very well be the #2.
But Booty has potential and should not be put at risk going to the practice squad, unless he is terrible in TC and preseason.

"singersp" wrote:

"UffDaVikes" wrote:

"singersp" wrote:

"UffDaVikes" wrote:

"gagarr" wrote:

[quote author=NodakPaul link=topic=45241.msg784094#msg784094 date=1211807182]
[quote author=gagarr link=topic=45241.msg783953#msg783953 date=1211756509]
I'm not counting SD game as a TJ win, as when he left the game when the
Vikes were down by 14 and Bollinger (QB rating 133.3) came in to win the game
SD





14




14




65.6

Umm, when TJ left with the injury, the score was 7-7.
The Vikings were never down by 14 in that game.
The most they ever trailed by by 7, and that was for a grand total of six minutes the whole game.

I was about to come on and praise you for collecting this data.
I don't think it is relevant in any way, but it is fun to look at.
But when I spot a huge inaccuracy like that, the rest of the data becomes a little suspect as well.
But I think it all looks pretty legit, and certainly took a while to put together.
Thanks!

Regardless, I completely agree with the following statement:
"gagarr" wrote:

I've not had a lot of confidence in TJ, but seeing the above I realized that TJ
isn't bad, he just hasn't matured enough as a QB to be able to beat top third
defenses.
Which is totally reasonable.
BUT is able to consistantly beat the
teams he should beat, bottom third D's, which is a good sign to me.

I think that TJack is an average QB at best right now.
That means he should beat the teams with the poor defenses, and struggle against the teams with the top defense.
So this falls right in line with my expectations.
Luckily, with our defense, I think that an average QB is all that we need...

You are absolutely right Nodak, my mistake, it was SD 14 vikes 7.
That addition was done quickly, when I saw the discrepancy between TJ and Bollingers QB rating.
I don't think it invalidates the exclusion, given that TJ didn't finish the first half and what AD did in the 2nd half once TJ was out.

Thanks for the fact checking!
Please feel free to check the rest... I'm not perfect and I did it somewhat quickly.
I might of wanted to say, "Vikes were down by 14 - 7"

More importantly it showed that Bollinger can come in and lead the team to victory over one of the top teams in the league so we should keep him as the #2 qb, have Gus as #3 and put Booty on the practice squad.

Booty would never make it to the practice squad. He'd be snatched up ala Thigpen in a heartbeat.

Why, he's just a 5th round roster filler. If teams wanted him they had several opportunities to get him. ;D
[/quote]

They had every opportunity to snag Thigpen in the draft as well.

[/quote]

But then everyone saw him in preseason and knew he was a star waiting to happen.

Thats why we have to keep Booty a secret.

</sarcasm>

"gagarr" wrote:

"NodakPaul" wrote:

"gagarr" wrote:

I'm not counting SD game as a TJ win, as when he left the game when the
Vikes were down by 14 and Bollinger (QB rating 133.3) came in to win the game
SD





14




14




65.6

Umm, when TJ left with the injury, the score was 7-7.
The Vikings were never down by 14 in that game.
The most they ever trailed by by 7, and that was for a grand total of six minutes the whole game.

I was about to come on and praise you for collecting this data.
I don't think it is relevant in any way, but it is fun to look at.
But when I spot a huge inaccuracy like that, the rest of the data becomes a little suspect as well.
But I think it all looks pretty legit, and certainly took a while to put together.
Thanks!

Regardless, I completely agree with the following statement:
"gagarr" wrote:

I've not had a lot of confidence in TJ, but seeing the above I realized that TJ
isn't bad, he just hasn't matured enough as a QB to be able to beat top third
defenses.
Which is totally reasonable.
BUT is able to consistantly beat the
teams he should beat, bottom third D's, which is a good sign to me.

I think that TJack is an average QB at best right now.
That means he should beat the teams with the poor defenses, and struggle against the teams with the top defense.
So this falls right in line with my expectations.
Luckily, with our defense, I think that an average QB is all that we need...

You are absolutely right Nodak, my mistake, it was SD 14 vikes 7.
That addition was done quickly, when I saw the discrepancy between TJ and Bollingers QB rating.
I don't think it invalidates the exclusion, given that TJ didn't finish the first half and what AD did in the 2nd half once TJ was out.

Thanks for the fact checking!
Please feel free to check the rest... I'm not perfect and I did it somewhat quickly.
I might of wanted to say, "Vikes were down by 14 - 7"

Not to be picky, but the Vikings were not trailing at all when TJack went down.
It was 7 - 7 when TJack went out.
BB came in, the play stalled, and they attempted the long field goal, which was missed and run back 109 yards for a TD, making it 14-7 at the end of the half.
I actually wasn't trying to dis the stats, I actually liked the work you put into it.

However, I agree with the exclusion.
You cannot attribute the win to either BB or TJack, since AD typically hits his stride in the fourth Q.
TJack's numbers are probably low because he didn't have the benefit of playing the 4th, and BB's are inflated because he didn't have to play in the first half.

"NodakPaul" wrote:

"gagarr" wrote:

"NodakPaul" wrote:

"gagarr" wrote:

I'm not counting SD game as a TJ win, as when he left the game when the
Vikes were down by 14 and Bollinger (QB rating 133.3) came in to win the game
SD





14




14




65.6

Umm, when TJ left with the injury, the score was 7-7.
The Vikings were never down by 14 in that game.
The most they ever trailed by by 7, and that was for a grand total of six minutes the whole game.

I was about to come on and praise you for collecting this data.
I don't think it is relevant in any way, but it is fun to look at.
But when I spot a huge inaccuracy like that, the rest of the data becomes a little suspect as well.
But I think it all looks pretty legit, and certainly took a while to put together.
Thanks!

Regardless, I completely agree with the following statement:
"gagarr" wrote:

I've not had a lot of confidence in TJ, but seeing the above I realized that TJ
isn't bad, he just hasn't matured enough as a QB to be able to beat top third
defenses.
Which is totally reasonable.
BUT is able to consistantly beat the
teams he should beat, bottom third D's, which is a good sign to me.

I think that TJack is an average QB at best right now.
That means he should beat the teams with the poor defenses, and struggle against the teams with the top defense.
So this falls right in line with my expectations.
Luckily, with our defense, I think that an average QB is all that we need...

You are absolutely right Nodak, my mistake, it was SD 14 vikes 7.
That addition was done quickly, when I saw the discrepancy between TJ and Bollingers QB rating.
I don't think it invalidates the exclusion, given that TJ didn't finish the first half and what AD did in the 2nd half once TJ was out.

Thanks for the fact checking!
Please feel free to check the rest... I'm not perfect and I did it somewhat quickly.
I might of wanted to say, "Vikes were down by 14 - 7"

Not to be picky, but the Vikings were not trailing at all when TJack went down.
It was 7 - 7 when TJack went out.
BB came in, the play stalled, and they attempted the long field goal, which was missed and run back 109 yards for a TD, making it 14-7 at the end of the half.
I actually wasn't trying to dis the stats, I actually liked the work you put into it.

However, I agree with the exclusion.
You cannot attribute the win to either BB or TJack, since AD typically hits his stride in the fourth Q.
TJack's numbers are probably low because he didn't have the benefit of playing the 4th, and BB's are inflated because he didn't have to play in the first half.

Where Have i heard this argument before ;D ;D ;D

Thus why I always question the whole 8-4 as a starter record

I'm worried about Booty getting to the PS...he'll probably be the 3rd, project guy this year.
Thigpen still bums me out a bit...it would be wild to see him win the starting gig in KC.
I think Gus can win games when playing with a strong team around him in a system he knows...by midseason, I'd expect him to be ready enough to lead a top rushing attack deep into the playoffs.
IMHO he's better than Dilfer with those Ravens that won it all.

Bollinger seems to play well in games he comes in off the bench, but seems to struggle mightily when given a week to think about it.
I don't think he can be the consistent leader we need if TJack gets hurt.
I could see him signed on as an extension or assisstant to one of the offensive coaches...cuz he has experience there, and "knows the language."

"NodakPaul" wrote:

"gagarr" wrote:

"NodakPaul" wrote:

"gagarr" wrote:

I'm not counting SD game as a TJ win, as when he left the game when the
Vikes were down by 14 and Bollinger (QB rating 133.3) came in to win the game
SD






14




14




65.6

Umm, when TJ left with the injury, the score was 7-7.
The Vikings were never down by 14 in that game.
The most they ever trailed by by 7, and that was for a grand total of six minutes the whole game.

I was about to come on and praise you for collecting this data.
I don't think it is relevant in any way, but it is fun to look at.
But when I spot a huge inaccuracy like that, the rest of the data becomes a little suspect as well.
But I think it all looks pretty legit, and certainly took a while to put together.
Thanks!

Regardless, I completely agree with the following statement:
"gagarr" wrote:

I've not had a lot of confidence in TJ, but seeing the above I realized that TJ
isn't bad, he just hasn't matured enough as a QB to be able to beat top third
defenses.
Which is totally reasonable.
BUT is able to consistantly beat the
teams he should beat, bottom third D's, which is a good sign to me.

I think that TJack is an average QB at best right now.
That means he should beat the teams with the poor defenses, and struggle against the teams with the top defense.
So this falls right in line with my expectations.
Luckily, with our defense, I think that an average QB is all that we need...

You are absolutely right Nodak, my mistake, it was SD 14 vikes 7.
That addition was done quickly, when I saw the discrepancy between TJ and Bollingers QB rating.
I don't think it invalidates the exclusion, given that TJ didn't finish the first half and what AD did in the 2nd half once TJ was out.

Thanks for the fact checking!
Please feel free to check the rest... I'm not perfect and I did it somewhat quickly.
I might of wanted to say, "Vikes were down by 14 - 7"

Not to be picky, but the Vikings were not trailing at all when TJack went down.
It was 7 - 7 when TJack went out.
BB came in, the play stalled, and they attempted the long field goal, which was missed and run back 109 yards for a TD, making it 14-7 at the end of the half.
I actually wasn't trying to dis the stats, I actually liked the work you put into it.

However, I agree with the exclusion.
You cannot attribute the win to either BB or TJack, since AD typically hits his stride in the fourth Q.
TJack's numbers are probably low because he didn't have the benefit of playing the 4th, and BB's are inflated because he didn't have to play in the first half.

I really needed to go over the play by play better... I forgot about the disasterous botched FG, resulting in a TD.
I just saw TJ went out on the last drive and jump to the wrong conclusion that SD didn't score, thus I went with the half time score.
My bad.

Thanks again!

"gagarr" wrote:

**** THIS IS NOT A TJ BASHING OR PRAISING THREAD *****

Many analysts and others believe that TJ's performance is the variable
in determining the Vikes future, so I decided to analyze how TJ did in
comparison to the defenses he faced and will face.

Below is a statistical analysis of TJ's wins and losses and the
ranking of total defensive and pass defense of all opponents

TJ Wins:







Tot Def

Pass Def


QB rating
Atlanta



29




23




75.1
@Chicago

28




27




73.8
Oakland


22





8




79.9
@Giants



7




11




139.2
Detroit



32




31




110.4
@San Fran

25




22




95.9
Chicago



28




27




50








____



____



_____
Average



24




21




89.2


I'm not counting SD game as a TJ win, as when he left the game when the
Vikes were down by 14 and Bollinger (QB rating 133.3) came in to win the game
SD






14




14




65.6


TJ's Losses:







Tot Def


Pass Def


QB rating
@Detroit



32




31





26.4
Bollinger 91.7
@Dallas




9




13





44.2
Wash





8




16





63.1
@Denver



19





7





90.1









____



____




_____
Average



17




17




55.9


Losses without TJ:






Tot Def


Pass Def


QB rating
@KC




13





5




68.9

Holcomb
GB






11




12




72.4

Holcomb
Philly




10




18




82.3

Holcomb
Bollinger 99.6
@GB




11




12




65.5

Bollinger








____



____



_____
Average


11




12




72.3


The above stats tells me a few things:
1. TJ has a good chance to win against teams with defenses in the bottom third
2. TJ doesn't have a good chance against defenses in the top third
3. The Giants win and first Lions loss are outliers, when taken out, the results


becomes even more polerized.
4. The 4 losses when TJ was out were against teams in the top third and given above


data, they would probably have been losses for TJ
5. TJ plays much better at home Home record (4-1) Away (3-3)

----
Using the above findings to predict next years wins and losses

Presumed Wins:







Tot Def

Pass Def
@ARI




17



28
HOU





24



25
@NO





26



30
@CHI




28



27
CHI






28



27
ATL






29



23
DET






32



31
@DET




32



31


Presumed losses:







Tot Def

Pass Def
@TB





2





1
IND






3





2
@TEN





5




10
NYG






7




11
@GB





11




12
GB






11



12

Borderline:







Tot Def

Pass Def
@JAC




12




15
CAR





16




17


Conclusions:
Strangely enough TJ will be facing teams 6 teams in the top third, 8 in the
bottom third, and only 2 in the middle third.

Using the past performance of defenses and TJ's performance against defenses
to predict the future.
With a reasonable increase in TJ's performance he
should be able to perform well enough for 10 wins.

Given that the Vikes D is improved it should even increase that possibility.

I've not had a lot of confidence in TJ, but seeing the above I realized that TJ
isn't bad, he just hasn't matured enough as a QB to be able to beat top third
defenses.
Which is totally reasonable.
BUT is able to consistantly beat the
teams he should beat, bottom third D's, which is a good sign to me.

Not gonna poke you in the eye over the small errors.
Just gonna compliment you on the effort and your last para.

Well done my friend.
;D

who seriously thinks bollinger is gonna make this team?
he's been here for 2 years now and they continue to bring other people in to replace him.
if they were so satisfied with him why sign gus and draft booty?
i would be shockingly stunned if this guy ends up on the roster.
what do we gain by him being the 3rd string qb, you keep booty on the roster as the 3rd stringer, cut loose bollinger to see if he can find a backup job elsewhere, and then theres no worries about booty clearing waivers, case closed. everyone knows what bollinger is in this league, so if he's not gonna serve as your backup there is no reason to keep him on as your backup to your backup.

"ragz" wrote:

who seriously thinks bollinger is gonna make this team?
he's been here for 2 years now and they continue to bring other people in to replace him.
if they were so satisfied with him why sign gus and draft booty?
i would be shockingly stunned if this guy ends up on the roster.
what do we gain by him being the 3rd string qb, you keep booty on the roster as the 3rd stringer, cut loose bollinger to see if he can find a backup job elsewhere, and then theres no worries about booty clearing waivers, case closed. everyone knows what bollinger is in this league, so if he's not gonna serve as your backup there is no reason to keep him on as your backup to your backup.

LOL, I often wonder that very thing myself my friend.

There are a few on here who make a good case (somewhat anyways) for him to stay.
I on the other hand think he is a gonner.
;D

The staff learned thier lesson with Thygpen last year and won't risk putting Booty on the practice squad.
Wrigth will fill that role.
Gus is obviously gonna be the Vet on the roster and Booty will sit as the number 3 and carry the clipboard with TJ starting.

No room for Brooksy..... ;D