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  1. #11
    Eyedea's Avatar
    Eyedea is offline Pro-Bowler
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    Re: TJ performance vs defensive rankings

    Not to burst your bubble, but with such a small sample size, I don't think you can draw any conclusions.
    Unless you run a statisicaly significance test and prove those differences are significant, you really haven't shown us anything besides simple random variation.
    Make love to the present, fuck the past
    --Sage Francis

  2. #12
    ragz's Avatar
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    Re: TJ performance vs defensive rankings

    another thing that is not a great indicator is passer rating in general.
    in some of those games tavaris only attempted like 15 passes.
    the other qbs in there 4 starts had a decent rating cuz they didn't throw picks but they also didn't score points and that's why we lost.
    pass defense rankings are based on yards but dont always indicate how good or bad a pass defense might really be.
    and pretty much all qbs are better at home than on the road.
    so it was an interesting analysis but i dont think it shows all that much.
    if anything his actual play is a good indicator cuz you could tell how much different he was from game 2 to game 16
    "self improvement's masturbation.
    now self destruction" that's enlightenment

  3. #13
    gagarr's Avatar
    gagarr is offline Team Alumni
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    Re: TJ performance vs defensive rankings

    "Eyedea" wrote:
    Not to burst your bubble, but with such a small sample size, I don't think you can draw any conclusions.
    Unless you run a statisicaly significance test and prove those differences are significant, you really haven't shown us anything besides simple random variation.
    OK... I was trying to keep it simple for all of you... but obviously I have a few of you out there that have taken a couple stat courses.

    So, here's a few questions for ya'll:

    What kind of distribution would I be using or assuming?

    * Gaussian

    * discrete uniform distribution

    * Bernoulli

    * Discrete probability distribution

    Since there is a desire for a statistical significance test, what alpha do you suggest in my null hypothesis test?

    1, .75, .1, .05, .01 ????

    Or is statistical significance not applicable due to the type of distribution, given that I'm using defense rankings not continuous values like yards per game?

    Hmmmm.... these are all things to ponder, rather than simply look at the basic data provided and draw your own simple conclusions.

    Eyedea, please feel free to do all the significance testing you wish, and post all your estute findings so we can all critisize your findings.
    Or most likely you won't even try and will make lots of excuses as to the invalidity of the data being correlated.
    :

    Or maybe lets just not bother looking at any data and just say... TJ sucks, TJ rocks, TJ is ???
    [size=12pt]
    Page 148.5 **Doleman 150.5 **Randle 137.5 **Allen 73+
    [/size]

  4. #14
    Formo's Avatar
    Formo is offline Team Alumni
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    Re: TJ performance vs defensive rankings

    "gagarr" wrote:
    "Eyedea" wrote:
    Not to burst your bubble, but with such a small sample size, I don't think you can draw any conclusions.
    Unless you run a statisicaly significance test and prove those differences are significant, you really haven't shown us anything besides simple random variation.
    OK... I was trying to keep it simple for all of you... but obviously I have a few of you out there that have taken a couple stat courses.

    So, here's a few questions for ya'll:

    What kind of distribution would I be using or assuming?

    * Gaussian

    * discrete uniform distribution

    * Bernoulli

    * Discrete probability distribution

    Since there is a desire for a statistical significance test, what alpha do you suggest in my null hypothesis test?

    1, .75, .1, .05, .01 ????

    Or is statistical significance not applicable due to the type of distribution, given that I'm using defense rankings not continuous values like yards per game?

    Hmmmm.... these are all things to ponder, rather than simply look at the basic data provided and draw your own simple conclusions.

    Eyedea, please feel free to do all the significance testing you wish, and post all your estute findings so we can all critisize your findings.
    Or most likely you won't even try and will make lots of excuses as to the invalidity of the data being correlated.
    :

    Or maybe lets just not bother looking at any data and just say... TJ sucks, TJ rocks, TJ is ???
    HAHAHAHAHHA!!!

    That was a great reply.

    Me lubs it.

    BTW, nice work on the stats stuff, and given the simplistic way you went about it..
    They still are more in depth when compared to the stuff they throw out on ESPN/NFLN/FOX/NBC, etc.

    I, for one, appreciate the time you took for that.
    Vegans are eating the rainforests. =(

  5. #15
    Prophet's Avatar
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    Re: TJ performance vs defensive rankings

    Thanks for taking the time to put that together, it was fun to look over.
    Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please. Mark Twain

  6. #16
    NodakPaul's Avatar
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    Re: TJ performance vs defensive rankings

    "gagarr" wrote:
    I'm not counting SD game as a TJ win, as when he left the game when the
    Vikes were down by 14 and Bollinger (QB rating 133.3) came in to win the game
    SD





    14




    14




    65.6
    Umm, when TJ left with the injury, the score was 7-7.
    The Vikings were never down by 14 in that game.
    The most they ever trailed by by 7, and that was for a grand total of six minutes the whole game.

    I was about to come on and praise you for collecting this data.
    I don't think it is relevant in any way, but it is fun to look at.
    But when I spot a huge inaccuracy like that, the rest of the data becomes a little suspect as well.
    But I think it all looks pretty legit, and certainly took a while to put together.
    Thanks!

    Regardless, I completely agree with the following statement:
    "gagarr" wrote:
    I've not had a lot of confidence in TJ, but seeing the above I realized that TJ
    isn't bad, he just hasn't matured enough as a QB to be able to beat top third
    defenses.
    Which is totally reasonable.
    BUT is able to consistantly beat the
    teams he should beat, bottom third D's, which is a good sign to me.
    I think that TJack is an average QB at best right now.
    That means he should beat the teams with the poor defenses, and struggle against the teams with the top defense.
    So this falls right in line with my expectations.
    Luckily, with our defense, I think that an average QB is all that we need...
    Zeus wrote:
    When are you going to realize that picking out the 20 bad throws this year and ignoring the 300 good ones does not make your point?

    =Z=

  7. #17
    gagarr's Avatar
    gagarr is offline Team Alumni
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    Re: TJ performance vs defensive rankings

    "NodakPaul" wrote:
    "gagarr" wrote:
    I'm not counting SD game as a TJ win, as when he left the game when the
    Vikes were down by 14 and Bollinger (QB rating 133.3) came in to win the game
    SD






    14




    14




    65.6
    Umm, when TJ left with the injury, the score was 7-7.
    The Vikings were never down by 14 in that game.
    The most they ever trailed by by 7, and that was for a grand total of six minutes the whole game.

    I was about to come on and praise you for collecting this data.
    I don't think it is relevant in any way, but it is fun to look at.
    But when I spot a huge inaccuracy like that, the rest of the data becomes a little suspect as well.
    But I think it all looks pretty legit, and certainly took a while to put together.
    Thanks!

    Regardless, I completely agree with the following statement:
    "gagarr" wrote:
    I've not had a lot of confidence in TJ, but seeing the above I realized that TJ
    isn't bad, he just hasn't matured enough as a QB to be able to beat top third
    defenses.
    Which is totally reasonable.
    BUT is able to consistantly beat the
    teams he should beat, bottom third D's, which is a good sign to me.
    I think that TJack is an average QB at best right now.
    That means he should beat the teams with the poor defenses, and struggle against the teams with the top defense.
    So this falls right in line with my expectations.
    Luckily, with our defense, I think that an average QB is all that we need...
    You are absolutely right Nodak, my mistake, it was SD 14 vikes 7.
    That addition was done quickly, when I saw the discrepancy between TJ and Bollingers QB rating.
    I don't think it invalidates the exclusion, given that TJ didn't finish the first half and what AD did in the 2nd half once TJ was out.

    Thanks for the fact checking!
    Please feel free to check the rest... I'm not perfect and I did it somewhat quickly.
    I might of wanted to say, "Vikes were down by 14 - 7"
    [size=12pt]
    Page 148.5 **Doleman 150.5 **Randle 137.5 **Allen 73+
    [/size]

  8. #18
    Purple Floyd's Avatar
    Purple Floyd is offline Jersey Retired
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    Re: TJ performance vs defensive rankings

    "gagarr" wrote:
    "NodakPaul" wrote:
    "gagarr" wrote:
    I'm not counting SD game as a TJ win, as when he left the game when the
    Vikes were down by 14 and Bollinger (QB rating 133.3) came in to win the game
    SD





    14




    14




    65.6
    Umm, when TJ left with the injury, the score was 7-7.
    The Vikings were never down by 14 in that game.
    The most they ever trailed by by 7, and that was for a grand total of six minutes the whole game.

    I was about to come on and praise you for collecting this data.
    I don't think it is relevant in any way, but it is fun to look at.
    But when I spot a huge inaccuracy like that, the rest of the data becomes a little suspect as well.
    But I think it all looks pretty legit, and certainly took a while to put together.
    Thanks!

    Regardless, I completely agree with the following statement:
    "gagarr" wrote:
    I've not had a lot of confidence in TJ, but seeing the above I realized that TJ
    isn't bad, he just hasn't matured enough as a QB to be able to beat top third
    defenses.
    Which is totally reasonable.
    BUT is able to consistantly beat the
    teams he should beat, bottom third D's, which is a good sign to me.
    I think that TJack is an average QB at best right now.
    That means he should beat the teams with the poor defenses, and struggle against the teams with the top defense.
    So this falls right in line with my expectations.
    Luckily, with our defense, I think that an average QB is all that we need...
    You are absolutely right Nodak, my mistake, it was SD 14 vikes 7.
    That addition was done quickly, when I saw the discrepancy between TJ and Bollingers QB rating.
    I don't think it invalidates the exclusion, given that TJ didn't finish the first half and what AD did in the 2nd half once TJ was out.

    Thanks for the fact checking!
    Please feel free to check the rest... I'm not perfect and I did it somewhat quickly.
    I might of wanted to say, "Vikes were down by 14 - 7"
    More importantly it showed that Bollinger can come in and lead the team to victory over one of the top teams in the league so we should keep him as the #2 qb, have Gus as #3 and put Booty on the practice squad.

  9. #19
    singersp's Avatar
    singersp is offline PPO Newshound
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    Re: TJ performance vs defensive rankings

    "UffDaVikes" wrote:
    "gagarr" wrote:
    "NodakPaul" wrote:
    "gagarr" wrote:
    I'm not counting SD game as a TJ win, as when he left the game when the
    Vikes were down by 14 and Bollinger (QB rating 133.3) came in to win the game
    SD





    14




    14




    65.6
    Umm, when TJ left with the injury, the score was 7-7.
    The Vikings were never down by 14 in that game.
    The most they ever trailed by by 7, and that was for a grand total of six minutes the whole game.

    I was about to come on and praise you for collecting this data.
    I don't think it is relevant in any way, but it is fun to look at.
    But when I spot a huge inaccuracy like that, the rest of the data becomes a little suspect as well.
    But I think it all looks pretty legit, and certainly took a while to put together.
    Thanks!

    Regardless, I completely agree with the following statement:
    "gagarr" wrote:
    I've not had a lot of confidence in TJ, but seeing the above I realized that TJ
    isn't bad, he just hasn't matured enough as a QB to be able to beat top third
    defenses.
    Which is totally reasonable.
    BUT is able to consistantly beat the
    teams he should beat, bottom third D's, which is a good sign to me.
    I think that TJack is an average QB at best right now.
    That means he should beat the teams with the poor defenses, and struggle against the teams with the top defense.
    So this falls right in line with my expectations.
    Luckily, with our defense, I think that an average QB is all that we need...
    You are absolutely right Nodak, my mistake, it was SD 14 vikes 7.
    That addition was done quickly, when I saw the discrepancy between TJ and Bollingers QB rating.
    I don't think it invalidates the exclusion, given that TJ didn't finish the first half and what AD did in the 2nd half once TJ was out.

    Thanks for the fact checking!
    Please feel free to check the rest... I'm not perfect and I did it somewhat quickly.
    I might of wanted to say, "Vikes were down by 14 - 7"
    More importantly it showed that Bollinger can come in and lead the team to victory over one of the top teams in the league so we should keep him as the #2 qb, have Gus as #3 and put Booty on the practice squad.
    Booty would never make it to the practice squad. He'd be snatched up ala Thigpen in a heartbeat.

    "If at first you don't succeed, parachuting is not for you"

  10. #20
    Purple Floyd's Avatar
    Purple Floyd is offline Jersey Retired
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    Re: TJ performance vs defensive rankings

    "singersp" wrote:
    "UffDaVikes" wrote:
    "gagarr" wrote:
    "NodakPaul" wrote:
    "gagarr" wrote:
    I'm not counting SD game as a TJ win, as when he left the game when the
    Vikes were down by 14 and Bollinger (QB rating 133.3) came in to win the game
    SD





    14




    14




    65.6
    Umm, when TJ left with the injury, the score was 7-7.
    The Vikings were never down by 14 in that game.
    The most they ever trailed by by 7, and that was for a grand total of six minutes the whole game.

    I was about to come on and praise you for collecting this data.
    I don't think it is relevant in any way, but it is fun to look at.
    But when I spot a huge inaccuracy like that, the rest of the data becomes a little suspect as well.
    But I think it all looks pretty legit, and certainly took a while to put together.
    Thanks!

    Regardless, I completely agree with the following statement:
    "gagarr" wrote:
    I've not had a lot of confidence in TJ, but seeing the above I realized that TJ
    isn't bad, he just hasn't matured enough as a QB to be able to beat top third
    defenses.
    Which is totally reasonable.
    BUT is able to consistantly beat the
    teams he should beat, bottom third D's, which is a good sign to me.
    I think that TJack is an average QB at best right now.
    That means he should beat the teams with the poor defenses, and struggle against the teams with the top defense.
    So this falls right in line with my expectations.
    Luckily, with our defense, I think that an average QB is all that we need...
    You are absolutely right Nodak, my mistake, it was SD 14 vikes 7.
    That addition was done quickly, when I saw the discrepancy between TJ and Bollingers QB rating.
    I don't think it invalidates the exclusion, given that TJ didn't finish the first half and what AD did in the 2nd half once TJ was out.

    Thanks for the fact checking!
    Please feel free to check the rest... I'm not perfect and I did it somewhat quickly.
    I might of wanted to say, "Vikes were down by 14 - 7"
    More importantly it showed that Bollinger can come in and lead the team to victory over one of the top teams in the league so we should keep him as the #2 qb, have Gus as #3 and put Booty on the practice squad.
    Booty would never make it to the practice squad. He'd be snatched up ala Thigpen in a heartbeat.
    Why, he's just a 5th round roster filler. If teams wanted him they had several opportunities to get him. ;D

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