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  1. #1
    gagarr's Avatar
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    TJ performance vs defensive rankings

    **** THIS IS NOT A TJ BASHING OR PRAISING THREAD *****

    Many analysts and others believe that TJ's performance is the variable
    in determining the Vikes future, so I decided to analyze how TJ did in
    comparison to the defenses he faced and will face.

    Below is a statistical analysis of TJ's wins and losses and the
    ranking of total defensive and pass defense of all opponents

    TJ Wins:






    Tot Def

    Pass Def

    QB rating
    Atlanta



    29




    23




    75.1
    @Chicago

    28




    27




    73.8
    Oakland


    22




    8




    79.9
    @Giants



    7




    11



    139.2
    Detroit



    32




    31



    110.4
    @San Fran
    25




    22




    95.9
    Chicago


    28




    27




    50








    ____



    ____



    _____
    Average


    24




    21




    89.2


    I'm not counting SD game as a TJ win, as when he left the game when the
    Vikes were down by 14 and Bollinger (QB rating 133.3) came in to win the game
    SD





    14




    14




    65.6


    TJ's Losses:







    Tot Def

    Pass Def

    QB rating
    @Detroit


    32




    31





    26.4
    Bollinger 91.7
    @Dallas



    9




    13





    44.2
    Wash





    8




    16





    63.1
    @Denver


    19




    7





    90.1








    ____



    ____



    _____
    Average



    17




    17




    55.9


    Losses without TJ:






    Tot Def

    Pass Def

    QB rating
    @KC




    13




    5




    68.9

    Holcomb
    GB





    11




    12



    72.4

    Holcomb
    Philly



    10




    18




    82.3

    Holcomb
    Bollinger 99.6
    @GB




    11




    12




    65.5

    Bollinger







    ____



    ____



    _____
    Average

    11




    12




    72.3


    The above stats tells me a few things:
    1. TJ has a good chance to win against teams with defenses in the bottom third
    2. TJ doesn't have a good chance against defenses in the top third
    3. The Giants win and first Lions loss are outliers, when taken out, the results


    becomes even more polerized.
    4. The 4 losses when TJ was out were against teams in the top third and given above

    data, they would probably have been losses for TJ
    5. TJ plays much better at home Home record (4-1) Away (3-3)

    ----
    Using the above findings to predict next years wins and losses

    Presumed Wins:






    Tot Def
    Pass Def
    @ARI




    17


    28
    HOU




    24


    25
    @NO




    26


    30
    @CHI




    28


    27
    CHI





    28


    27
    ATL





    29


    23
    DET





    32


    31
    @DET




    32


    31


    Presumed losses:






    Tot Def
    Pass Def
    @TB





    2




    1
    IND





    3




    2
    @TEN




    5



    10
    NYG





    7



    11
    @GB




    11



    12
    GB






    11



    12

    Borderline:






    Tot Def
    Pass Def
    @JAC




    12



    15
    CAR





    16



    17


    Conclusions:
    Strangely enough TJ will be facing teams 6 teams in the top third, 8 in the
    bottom third, and only 2 in the middle third.

    Using the past performance of defenses and TJ's performance against defenses
    to predict the future.
    With a reasonable increase in TJ's performance he
    should be able to perform well enough for 10 wins.

    Given that the Vikes D is improved it should even increase that possibility.

    I've not had a lot of confidence in TJ, but seeing the above I realized that TJ
    isn't bad, he just hasn't matured enough as a QB to be able to beat top third
    defenses.
    Which is totally reasonable.
    BUT is able to consistantly beat the
    teams he should beat, bottom third D's, which is a good sign to me.


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  2. #2
    singersp's Avatar
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    Re: TJ performance vs defensive rankings

    Exactly where did you draw those defensive rankings from?

    Did you use 2006 rankings?

    Did you use 2007 rankings after the win/loss against MN & the rest of the season was figured in?

    Or did you use the defensive rankings at the time the actual game was played?

    "If at first you don't succeed, parachuting is not for you"

  3. #3
    gagarr's Avatar
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    Re: TJ performance vs defensive rankings

    "singersp" wrote:
    Exactly where did you draw those defensive rankings from?
    NFL.com 2007 regular season stats

    Did you use 2006 rankings?
    No

    Did you use 2007 rankings after the win/loss against MN & the rest of the season was figured in?
    Or did you use the defensive rankings at the time the actual game was played?
    I used the end of year rankings... I agree the above could have shed some better light, but I
    don't have that kind of time.


    I will admit the stat analysis isn't super scientific, but I just was curious and thought this might shed some light.
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  4. #4
    singersp's Avatar
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    Re: TJ performance vs defensive rankings

    "gagarr" wrote:
    "singersp" wrote:
    Exactly where did you draw those defensive rankings from?
    NFL.com 2007 regular season stats

    Did you use 2006 rankings?
    No

    Did you use 2007 rankings after the win/loss against MN & the rest of the season was figured in?
    Or did you use the defensive rankings at the time the actual game was played?
    I used the end of year rankings... I agree the above could have shed some better light, but I
    don't have that kind of time.


    I will admit the stat analysis isn't super scientific, but I just was curious and thought this might shed some light.
    It doesn't do a whole lot for me. You'd have to look at how tough of opponents those teams played as to how their ranking merit.

    It's a lot easier to have a higher defensive ranking when you play a lot of sub-par teams, even if you aren't a good team.

    Also, what was the record of those teams?

    What was the score in those wins & loses? Are they the loses of the offense or the defense?

    "If at first you don't succeed, parachuting is not for you"

  5. #5
    Ltrey33 is offline Jersey Retired
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    Re: TJ performance vs defensive rankings

    That's pretty good research though. It probably took some time to get all that together, so thanks. I'm not 100% sure how much of an indicator it is though.


  6. #6
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    Re: TJ performance vs defensive rankings

    Nice work!
    There's some pretty interesting points there...some I'd missed or forgoten about.
    Like the Giants game...I kind of had that pegged as a defensive throwdown, turns out it was TJack's best QB rating of the year too.
    That first DET game was kind of an anomaly.
    They tried so hard to pass the ball, but TJack was not ready for the pressure at that time.
    He's made some mistakes since then, but at least it hasn't looked like that!

    Unfortunately, the rankings of teams varies so much from year to year these days, that its hard to count on any of that.
    Right in our own division, we have CHI and DET with bad defensive ranks last year, but CHI has a good defense, when/if they're healthy.
    DET is changing to more of a pound the ball, eat the clock offense, and, has made moves to solidify their defene.
    GB has a good defense, with a ton of young talent...but, if Harrell can't stay healthy, and they traded Williams away...there might be a new hole in the middle of their line.

    I've not had a lot of confidence in TJ, but seeing the above I realized that TJ
    isn't bad, he just hasn't matured enough as a QB to be able to beat top third
    defenses.
    Which is totally reasonable.
    BUT is able to consistantly beat the
    teams he should beat, bottom third D's, which is a good sign to me.
    Good sign to me too!!
    For so many years, that seemed to be the downfall of our Vikings...beating tough teams, and keeping games close we wern'r expected to be in, but then going up against lesser competition and laying a big stinky turd.
    With an improved defense, WRs, and All Day, TJack may not have to improve dramatically, to beat those top third teams too!
    Control the line, control the time, and give your D a chance to shine!!

    "Balance it on end and thats the third side of the coin!!" -wookiefoot

  7. #7
    gagarr's Avatar
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    Re: TJ performance vs defensive rankings

    "singersp" wrote:
    "gagarr" wrote:
    "singersp" wrote:
    Exactly where did you draw those defensive rankings from?
    NFL.com 2007 regular season stats

    Did you use 2006 rankings?
    No

    Did you use 2007 rankings after the win/loss against MN & the rest of the season was figured in?
    Or did you use the defensive rankings at the time the actual game was played?
    I used the end of year rankings... I agree the above could have shed some better light, but I
    don't have that kind of time.


    I will admit the stat analysis isn't super scientific, but I just was curious and thought this might shed some light.
    It doesn't do a whole lot for me. You'd have to look at how tough of opponents those teams played as to how their ranking merit.

    It's a lot easier to have a higher defensive ranking when you play a lot of sub-par teams, even if you aren't a good team.

    Also, what was the record of those teams?

    What was the score in those wins & loses? Are they the loses of the offense or the defense?
    I understand where your coming from Singer... I thought about lots of other things that could be taken into account, but the variables could go on forever.
    Plus, as mountainviking points out that things change from year to year.
    So doing extensive analysis isn't going to be any more definitive.

    I just wanted to do something simple to see if TJ's performances had anything to do with the opponents D.
    As I said above, besided the Giants and Lions game, everything fell into line quite well.
    It was pretty polarized, which other factors shouldn't affect too much.

    As for records and points, I was just trying to look at opponents D's.
    Excluding everything on O, might not be best thing, but when doing any kind of statistical analysis you must define the parameters of the study.
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  8. #8
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    Re: TJ performance vs defensive rankings

    Here's a stat comparison I wouldn't mind seeing...not sure where a guy would start?
    But, Does the offense play better when the defense is playing well, and vice versa...seems to me, that they set each other up for success.
    In games our offense stalls, eventually, the defense gets drained.
    And, if the defense is getting smoked, it puts so much more pressure on the offense to keep up.
    Control the line, control the time, and give your D a chance to shine!!

    "Balance it on end and thats the third side of the coin!!" -wookiefoot

  9. #9
    gagarr's Avatar
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    Re: TJ performance vs defensive rankings

    "mountainviking" wrote:
    Here's a stat comparison I wouldn't mind seeing...not sure where a guy would start?
    But, Does the offense play better when the defense is playing well, and vice versa...seems to me, that they set each other up for success.
    In games our offense stalls, eventually, the defense gets drained.
    And, if the defense is getting smoked, it puts so much more pressure on the offense to keep up.
    Time of Possession is a quick gage on that, if the O is balance with run/pass.
    I'm a big fan of 3 and outs then I am of INT's... because most INT's are a mistake.
    3 and outs are a strong D.

    But I don't think anyone counts 3 and outs as a stat... Do they?
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  10. #10
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    Re: TJ performance vs defensive rankings

    the research isn't perfect, but it is still stats proving something.

    "mountainviking" wrote:
    Here's a stat comparison I wouldn't mind seeing...not sure where a guy would start?
    But, Does the offense play better when the defense is playing well, and vice versa...seems to me, that they set each other up for success.
    In games our offense stalls, eventually, the defense gets drained.
    And, if the defense is getting smoked, it puts so much more pressure on the offense to keep up.
    when both teams play good, teams win. i dont think there is much influence other than on point in the game where certain things happen. the way the league is now, the offensive dictate the play more than the defense does.
    We're bringing purple back.

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