Page 6 of 6 FirstFirst ... 456
Results 51 to 54 of 54
  1. #51
    kevoncox's Avatar
    kevoncox is offline Jersey Retired
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Posts
    5,851

    Re: Is T. Manning a Super Bowl caliber QB?

    "VikingMike" wrote:
    "purplepat" wrote:
    Time to be a smartass....

    The odds say no.
    Not because of Jackson personally, but let's look at the "statistics"...

    The Vikings haven't had a "Super Bowl QB" since Hall of Famer Fran Tarkenton (unless you want to count Brad Johnson and Rich Gannon, who both played in a Super Bowl and both once played for the Vikings...but neither was considered a Super Bowl QB when they were with the Vikings).

    To date, there have been 42 Super Bowls.
    But numerous QBs have been to multiple Super Bowls.
    Just off the top of my head...

    Elway




    5
    Bradshaw

    4
    Brady



    4
    Montana

    4
    Kelly




    4
    Staubach

    4
    Aikman


    3
    Tarkenton
    3
    Griese



    3
    Starr




    2
    Theismann 2
    Dawson


    2
    Warner


    2
    Morton


    2

    There's 44 Super Bowl starts out of 14 QBs.
    I'm guessing that means that the other 40 Super Bowl starts came from one-timers.
    So in 42 seasons, we've had 54 QBs who were "Super Bowl caliber QBs", by the strictest definition.
    That's an average of about 1.25 QBs per year.
    With 32 teams in the league, that suggests only 1 in every 26.1 or about a 4% chance that ANY given starting QB will be "Super Bowl caliber".
    And of course, the odds are really worse than this as we have some teams that have multiple starting QBs that fail to make a real dent in the NFL (take KC last year with Huard and Croyle).

    Now lets look at some of the QBs who have and haven't made the Super Bowl.
    Were/are the following players "Super Bowl caliber"?

    Warren Moon
    Dan Fouts
    Randall Cunningham
    Trent Green
    Daunte Culpepper
    Jeff Garcia
    Bernie Kosar
    Dave Krieg

    On the other side of the coin, are/were these guys "Super Bowl caliber"?

    Joe Kapp
    Trent Dilfer (WON)
    Stan Humphries
    Rich Gannon
    Brad Johnson (WON)
    David Woodley
    Steve McNair (Almost won)
    Rex Grossman
    Jim McMahon (WON)
    Jake Delhomme (Almost won)
    Doug Williams (WON)
    Neil O' Donnell
    Jeff Hostetler (WON)
    Vince Ferragamo

    You get the idea.

    If you are expecting Jackson to fit into that class of the 14 QBs who have led their team to multiple Super Bowls, you are setting yourself up for some serious disappointment.
    He might do it, but history suggests the odds are heavily stacked against him.
    If you are expecting him to be a "top flight NFL starter" ala Peyton Manning, you are probably also setting yourself up for disappointment.
    Franchise QBs of that high a talent level are also 1 in a 100 (or more).

    Now, if you are asking is Jackson capable of being a good NFL QB who can lead the Vikings to numerous playoff berths throughout his career, I think it's too early to tell but the answer is he could be.
    I frankly compare Jackson a bit closer to McNair than to McNabb, but I think McNair was a pretty decent QB for most of his career and he did make it to the Super Bowl.

    Once again, how many times do logical, rational people have to say it: QBs like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Joe Montana do not grow on trees!!!
    They are the exceptions to the rule.
    If your franchise is lucky, you might get a competent QB like a Matt Hasselbeck or Steve McNair who is not spectacular, but is fairly consistent and puts up good (but not great) numbers for a decently long career, and will keep your team competitive for a decade.
    If your franchise is unlucky, you will constantly shuffle through QBs like the Lions and Bears seem to do.

    No one really knows right now if Jackson will be a 6-10 QB, an 8-8 QB, or a 10-6 QB.
    You can't expect rookie QBs to come in and play like Pro Bowlers overnight.
    It's going to take another season (or two) before we know what we really have...a diamond in the rough or a turd.



    Excellent post. Only marginally would I argue with some of your picks, but overall it's very accurate.

    Before this post-season rush, would anyone (except Ernie Accorsi) have included Eli Manning in the SB-caliber QB's? Even earlier this season, he was horrible...then turned it around with help from Gilbride and his receivers. I'll be happy if TJ can learn not to make stupid mistakes, and to take what the D gives him.
    The point of a super bowl caliber Qb is 1 that can get us there( ignoring the fact that football is a team sport just like everyone else does). In that regard you should revisit your calculations.

  2. #52
    purplepat is offline Hall of Famer
    Join Date
    Dec 1969
    Posts
    1,496

    Re: Is T. Manning a Super Bowl caliber QB?

    "kevoncox" wrote:
    The point of a super bowl caliber Qb is 1 that can get us there( ignoring the fact that football is a team sport just like everyone else does). In that regard you should revisit your calculations.
    Exactly.
    But my second list of guys like Kapp, Dilfer, Humphries, Ferragamo are all guys that got their team to the Super Bowl...although most weren't directly a result of the QB play.
    But for one season at least, these guys were good enough (or didn't hurt their team enough) that their team got there.
    And I have no reason to believe that Jackson can't be as good as any of the guys in the second list.

    By the same token, guys like Moon and Fouts were great QBs but never got to the Super Bowl.
    But like Manning, Brady and Montana, QBs like Moon and Fouts don't grow on trees.
    The NFL has far more Joey Harrington types than it has Tom Brady types.
    You also can't look at any college QB and accurately say that one will be more like Brady than Harrington.
    At this point, we really don't know if Jackson is going to be more like McNabb or Tony Banks.
    SKOL VIKINGS!

  3. #53
    Marrdro's Avatar
    Marrdro is offline Beware My Spreadsheet, Bitches!
    Join Date
    Dec 1969
    Posts
    43,899

    Re: Is T. Manning a Super Bowl caliber QB?

    "purplepat" wrote:
    Time to be a smartass....

    The odds say no.
    Not because of Jackson personally, but let's look at the "statistics"...

    The Vikings haven't had a "Super Bowl QB" since Hall of Famer Fran Tarkenton (unless you want to count Brad Johnson and Rich Gannon, who both played in a Super Bowl and both once played for the Vikings...but neither was considered a Super Bowl QB when they were with the Vikings).

    To date, there have been 42 Super Bowls.
    But numerous QBs have been to multiple Super Bowls.
    Just off the top of my head...

    Elway




    5
    Bradshaw

    4
    Brady



    4
    Montana

    4
    Kelly




    4
    Staubach

    4
    Aikman


    3
    Tarkenton
    3
    Griese



    3
    Starr




    2
    Theismann 2
    Dawson


    2
    Warner


    2
    Morton


    2

    There's 44 Super Bowl starts out of 14 QBs.
    I'm guessing that means that the other 40 Super Bowl starts came from one-timers.
    So in 42 seasons, we've had 54 QBs who were "Super Bowl caliber QBs", by the strictest definition.
    That's an average of about 1.25 QBs per year.
    With 32 teams in the league, that suggests only 1 in every 26.1 or about a 4% chance that ANY given starting QB will be "Super Bowl caliber".
    And of course, the odds are really worse than this as we have some teams that have multiple starting QBs that fail to make a real dent in the NFL (take KC last year with Huard and Croyle).

    Now lets look at some of the QBs who have and haven't made the Super Bowl.
    Were/are the following players "Super Bowl caliber"?

    Warren Moon
    Dan Fouts
    Randall Cunningham
    Trent Green
    Daunte Culpepper
    Jeff Garcia
    Bernie Kosar
    Dave Krieg

    On the other side of the coin, are/were these guys "Super Bowl caliber"?

    Joe Kapp
    Trent Dilfer (WON)
    Stan Humphries
    Rich Gannon
    Brad Johnson (WON)
    David Woodley
    Steve McNair (Almost won)
    Rex Grossman
    Jim McMahon (WON)
    Jake Delhomme (Almost won)
    Doug Williams (WON)
    Neil O' Donnell
    Jeff Hostetler (WON)
    Vince Ferragamo

    You get the idea.

    If you are expecting Jackson to fit into that class of the 14 QBs who have led their team to multiple Super Bowls, you are setting yourself up for some serious disappointment.
    He might do it, but history suggests the odds are heavily stacked against him.
    If you are expecting him to be a "top flight NFL starter" ala Peyton Manning, you are probably also setting yourself up for disappointment.
    Franchise QBs of that high a talent level are also 1 in a 100 (or more).

    Now, if you are asking is Jackson capable of being a good NFL QB who can lead the Vikings to numerous playoff berths throughout his career, I think it's too early to tell but the answer is he could be.
    I frankly compare Jackson a bit closer to McNair than to McNabb, but I think McNair was a pretty decent QB for most of his career and he did make it to the Super Bowl.

    Once again, how many times do logical, rational people have to say it: QBs like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Joe Montana do not grow on trees!!!
    They are the exceptions to the rule.
    If your franchise is lucky, you might get a competent QB like a Matt Hasselbeck or Steve McNair who is not spectacular, but is fairly consistent and puts up good (but not great) numbers for a decently long career, and will keep your team competitive for a decade.
    If your franchise is unlucky, you will constantly shuffle through QBs like the Lions and Bears seem to do.


    No one really knows right now if Jackson will be a 6-10 QB, an 8-8 QB, or a 10-6 QB.
    You can't expect rookie QBs to come in and play like Pro Bowlers overnight.
    It's going to take another season (or two) before we know what we really have...a diamond in the rough or a turd.
    You can keep being a smartass all you want as long as you make solid posts like this.

    You can win more with a good team (and a good QB) than you can with a bad team (and a star QB).

    Anyone think Carson Palmer is a bad QB?
    Many many thanks to my talented friend Jos for the new Sig.http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v343/josdin00/Vikings/Marrdro_sig.jpg

  4. #54
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    224

    Re: Is T. Manning a Super Bowl caliber QB?

    Carson Palmer is a alright qb

Page 6 of 6 FirstFirst ... 456

Similar Threads

  1. MOVED: Is T. Manning a Super Bowl caliber QB?
    By ultravikingfan in forum Vikings Offseason/Draft/FA Forum
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 02-06-2008, 12:46 AM
  2. LXXX years of Super Bowl history - Vikings to win Super Bowl XLVI?
    By singersp in forum General NFL Discussion
    Replies: 6
    Last Post: 01-28-2008, 07:03 PM
  3. Worst Super Bowl Moments (Super Bowls I-XL)
    By Prophet in forum General NFL Discussion
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 02-08-2006, 11:54 PM
  4. What would you do for a Super Bowl win?
    By ultravikingfan in forum Vikings Fan Forum
    Replies: 19
    Last Post: 10-16-2004, 05:25 AM
  5. Super Bowl
    By Cissney the Viking in forum Vikings Fan Forum
    Replies: 45
    Last Post: 04-28-2004, 10:37 AM

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •