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  1. #1
    Marrdro's Avatar
    Marrdro is offline Beware My Spreadsheet, Bitches!
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    So You're Tellin' Me There's A Chance

    The Prediction Machine folks have the Vikings pegged for an 8-8 record this season, which seems to be the prevailing consensus from the national punditry lately (I've heard ESPN Radio's Mike and Mike say the same thing, and the folks at Football Outsiders have the Vikings slotted at 8-8 as well). They actually have the NFC North shaping up to be quite a dogfight. . .the Chicago Bears are projected at 8.2 wins, the Vikings with 8.0, and the Detroit Lions with 7.9.
    So You're Tellin' Me There's A Chance
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  2. #2
    NodakPaul's Avatar
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    Re: So You're Tellin' Me There's A Chance

    Well, yes. There IS a chance.

    One thing that I love about the NFL is the fact that any team can go from good to bad or vice versa in a year. Look at the Vikings from 09-10. In 09 they were one of the best teams in the NFL. In 10 they were one of the worst - even though we had a very small turnover of personnel. It doesn't take much to make a huge difference.

    So yeah, looking at our team and schedule right now, it is hard to imagine us going deep. In fact, I think 8-8 is being gracious, and another 6-10 might be more accurate. But the fact is that there IS a chance of us doing better. We could be a 10-6 team without much extra luck. We could be even better. Green Bay SHOULD win the division again - but it is definitely not a guarantee. There are no guarantees in football.

    Until the Vikings are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, there is still a chance at a super bowl run this year. Now I am not a blind homer (homer yes - blind no), but I definitely think that there is a chance that we can win each and every game on our schedule. Probable? no. Possible? Yes.

    I am truly looking forward to this year (as I do every year).
    Zeus wrote:
    When are you going to realize that picking out the 20 bad throws this year and ignoring the 300 good ones does not make your point?

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  3. #3
    NodakPaul's Avatar
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    Re: So You're Tellin' Me There's A Chance

    As an add on to last, here is where they have the NFC filling out for the season.

    NFC East Wins Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Div Win% WC Win% SB Win%
    Philadelphia Eagles 0 0 11.3 4.7 60 17 10
    Dallas Cowboys 0 0 9.1 6.9 24 23 4
    New York Giants 0 0 8.5 7.5 13 16 2
    Washington Redskins 0 0 6.0 10.0 3 5 0

    NFC West Wins Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Div Win% WC Win% SB Win%
    Arizona Cardinals 0 0 7.2 8.8 36 6 2
    St. Louis Rams 0 0 6.8 9.2 26 5 1
    San Francisco 49ers 0 0 6.7 9.3 25 5 1
    Seattle Seahawks 0 0 5.8 10.2 13 3 0

    NFC North Wins Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Div Win% WC Win% SB Win%
    Green Bay Packers 0 0 11.4 4.6 59 20 13
    Chicago Bears 0 0 8.2 7.8 15 16 2
    Minnesota Vikings 0 0 8.0 8.0 13 14 1
    Detroit Lions 0 0 7.9 8.1 13 14 1

    NFC South Wins Losses Proj Wins Proj Losses Div Win% WC Win% SB Win%
    New Orleans Saints 0 0 10.1 5.9 43 19 6
    Atlanta Falcons 0 0 9.4 6.6 38 23 5
    Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 0 7.0 9.0 18 13 1
    Carolina Panthers 0 0 5.2 10.8 1 1 0

    Couple of interesting notes:
    1) The Vikings have a 1% chance of winning the superbowl. Again, not a huge chance, but still a chance (seven teams had 0%).
    2) Second place in the NFC north is VERY tight - all three teams to finish around 8-8
    3) NFC wild card can be had by a 9-7 team.

    So yes... there IS a chance.
    Zeus wrote:
    When are you going to realize that picking out the 20 bad throws this year and ignoring the 300 good ones does not make your point?

    =Z=

  4. #4
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    Re: So You're Tellin' Me There's A Chance

    Quote Originally Posted by "NodakPaul" #1105076
    Well, yes. There IS a chance.

    One thing that I love about the NFL is the fact that any team can go from good to bad or vice versa in a year.
    +1

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    Re: So You're Tellin' Me There's A Chance

    As I am 44 yrs old and have been a Viking fan since i was old enough to like and understand football. I always believe we have a chance.. My blood runs purple. Will also always think they are the best even when we lose. Had too many heartbreaks in my 30 yrs of watching them. There has to be better days ahead... Go Vikes...

  6. #6
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    Re: So You're Tellin' Me There's A Chance

    Quote Originally Posted by "Marrdro" #1105070
    The Prediction Machine folks have the Vikings pegged for an 8-8 record this season, which seems to be the prevailing consensus from the national punditry lately (I've heard ESPN Radio's Mike and Mike say the same thing, and the folks at Football Outsiders have the Vikings slotted at 8-8 as well). They actually have the NFC North shaping up to be quite a dogfight. . .the Chicago Bears are projected at 8.2 wins, the Vikings with 8.0, and the Detroit Lions with 7.9.
    So You're Tellin' Me There's A Chance
    Yeah, well duh. There have been low ranked teams who manage to win the SB before too. These kinds of predictions are easy to make before a single regular season game has been played. Soooooooo............here is my analysis: The Bears are overrated this year and on a par with our aging veteran corp. We win both meetings with the bears.
    SB hangover? Yep. Rodgers is no Favre....they won't pull off back to back trips to the SB.
    The lions are the biggest threat. I predict they will shoot out of the basement like a bat outta hell. These guys have been busy over the past few years building a competitive team.
    AS for us......McNabb is playing for his life. He has to. This year is seriously do it or go home, for him. He knows how to lead a team and he is capable. (ouch. it pains me to say that.) Same goes for some of our veterans. Some of them are very close to retiring and no doubt want to go out with a BANG. We may not have all the pieces that we would like to have, but we have enough to make an impression.


    Personally, I don't think there is intelligent life on other planets. Why should other planets be any different from this one?

  7. #7
    singersp's Avatar
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    Re: So You're Tellin' Me There's A Chance

    Quote Originally Posted by "NodakPaul" #1105076
    Well, yes. There IS a chance.

    One thing that I love about the NFL is the fact that any team can go from good to bad or vice versa in a year. Look at the Vikings from 09-10. In 09 they were one of the best teams in the NFL. In 10 they were one of the worst - even though we had a very small turnover of personnel. It doesn't take much to make a huge difference.
    Having one of the best records, doesn't necessarily mean one of the best teams. IMO, great teams dominate many of their opponents. We did not. We were fortunate enough for things to go our way many times & wind up 12-4.

    The Bears of 2010 are another example of a team whose play, IMO, didn't live up to their record.

    "If at first you don't succeed, parachuting is not for you"

  8. #8
    singersp's Avatar
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    Re: So You're Tellin' Me There's A Chance

    Yeah, there's always a chance, but ask yourself this;

    Of all the positions that were vacated by players leaving, that we have filled with new players at the starting role, how many of them were actual improvements?

    Only one so far can I say was possibly an improvement & that is McNabb. He also still has to prove it.

    Every other "new starter" position on the team, with the exception of Johnson at LT, was a backup a year ago.

    And what of the backups? Since some of them were promoted to starting roles, has our depth at those positions improved or gotten worse? Keep in mind, backups aren't inserted only when a player gets hurt, but are regularly inserted in & out throughout games.

    "If at first you don't succeed, parachuting is not for you"

  9. #9
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    Re: So You're Tellin' Me There's A Chance

    Yep, which is why I'm buying a Power Ball ticket tonight.

    "If at first you don't succeed, parachuting is not for you"

  10. #10
    Marrdro's Avatar
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    Re: So You're Tellin' Me There's A Chance

    Quote Originally Posted by "singersp" #1105122
    Every other "new starter" position on the team, with the exception of Johnson at LT, was a backup a year ago.
    Some really good stuff my friends. I have just one comment though......

    Almost every starter was a backup at somepoint in his career. Truth of the matter is, almost every team that has won the SB of late has done it with players they developed with very few teams having success going out and trying to buy a team full of talent.

    On a side note, I listened to Mike and MIke talk the other day (can't remember the article) about many teams don't make it back to the playoffs from the year before. I was suprised by the number.

    Again, couldn't remember the article but found several when I googled the number....

    *Historically the average is close to 6, over the last eight seasons, itís jumped to 6.5, but that includes the wacky 2003 season when eight teams made The Leap.
    The Drop
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    The NFL Playoff Game: Six In, Six Out, Six Stay
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