08-05-2013, 12:17 PM #1
Schedule Breakdown (Wins - Losses)
OK, been working on this off and on for about 3 weeks. Time to run it out there and see what you think. By the way, it was written before the Buluga injury but I didn't think that cat was gonna solidify the LT position anyway.
Vikings Offensive Rank – Pass 31rst/Run 2nd Defensive Rank – Pass 24th/Run 11th Week 1 - Sep 8 AT Lions (WIN 1-0)
Offensive Rank – Pass 2nd/Run 23rd
Defensive Rank – Pass 14th/Run 16th
Draft - The Lions make a bold and risky move selecting Ansah. Who has very little game experience. He will need to ramp up his technique and pass-rush moves, but his athletic talent is almost unparalleled. Slay provides them some immediate help in the secondary. A smooth and fluid athlete with explosive closing burst, Slay possesses the ball skills to break up and intercept passes. Additionally, the Lions addressed their offensive line, but address their hole at right guard instead of the media's perceived need at left tackle. Warford is one of the most physically dominant at the point of attack. He possesses elite strength and punching ability, and will be as productive in pass protection and will really provide immediate help in the run game were they need help.
Vets - RB Reggie Bush, G Leroy Harris, G Jake Scott, DE Israel Idonije, DE/DT Jason Jones, DT C.J. Mosley, S Glover Quin, K David Akers, K Havard Rugland, KR Michael Spurlock.
Will Reggie be enough to get that ground game going. I like the addition of Idonije and Mosley.
Analysis – Dome Game. This is my number one example of why a much heralded QB gets all kinds of slack given to him by the press and the ESPN talking heads. Stafford, although he had lots of yards is terrible protecting the ball. Mix that in with how many drops his WRs and TE’s have and you will see why the cannot win games on a consistent basis.
This is a pretty good matchup for our defense as the Lions can chuck it all over the place but struggle running the ball and it remains to be seen if Bush can be that bell cow that can fix that aspect of their running game. Our offense should be able to dictate to them as they are about middle of the pack defensively.
Week 2 - Sep 15 AT Bears (WIN 2-0)
Offensive Rank – Pass 29th/Run 10th
Defensive Rank – Pass 8th/Run 8th
Draft – Kyle Long is very quick and explosive but a bit stiff in the hips and too often bends at the waist to try to make blocks. Most believe he was a reach were they took him. I’m not sure if he is going to help them in the area they needed most on the OL and that is pass protection. The Bears tried to fill their need at MLB with Bostic who is considered by most as a reach as well.
Vets - TE Martellus Bennett, TE Steve Maneri, OT Jermon Bushrod, G Matt Slauson, G Eben Britton, DE Kyle Moore, DE Turk McBride, DT Sedrick Ellis, DT Andre Fluellen, OLB James Anderson, S Tom Zbikowski.
Bennet and Bushrod should provide immediate help. Slauson and Britton will provide some competition.
Analysis – Outside game – Weather won’t be cold. New Head Coach with lots of uncertainty across the board in many areas of this organization to include the players.
Offensively the additions of Bushrod and Long should be enough to help solidify the OL, that is if Long works out but I just can’t help but think that they are putting a lot on Long. Additionally, they are banking on Bennett to help out the passing game as well as hoping that Jeffries improves. They struggled with the pass last year so we should be able to take that away from them and focus on their running game with was just OK last year. Pretty tough matchup for our offense but questions remain on their new makeup on the defensive side of the ball as there are still a lot of old players over there mixed in with players yet to prove themselves.
Week 3 - Sep 22 Browns (WIN 3-0)
Offensive Rank – Pass 19th/Run 24th
Defensive Rank – Pass 25th/Run 19th
Draft - The Browns needed help on defense, both pass and run and opted to go with Mingo as a means to pressure the QB. They then got some help opposite of Joe Haden when they selected McFadden whose strong point is the Cover 2 but does look smooth and explosive enough in his transition to possibly play some man.
Vets - QB Brian Hoyer, QB Jason Campbell, RB Dion Lewis, WR Davone Bess, WR David Nelson, TE Kellen Davis, TE Gary Barnidge, OT Rashad Butler, DT Desmond Bryant, DE/OLB Paul Kruger, DE/OLB Quentin Groves, CB Chris Owens, K Shayne Graham.
The additions of Hoyer and Campbell could be taken as a sign they aren’t sure about their starting QB. Weeden completed just 57.4 percent of his passes, generated a poor YPA of 6.5 and maintained a touchdown-to-turnover ratio of 14-to-18. He will be celebrating his 30th birthday in October - and he might be doing so as a reserve.
Analysis – Home/Dome. New changes all over, especially at the GM position. Lombardi had made it pretty well known that he wants to completely change most of the team especially at QB so look for this team to be ripe for the picking early in the season as they try to find their way. Aside from that, it’s a pretty good matchup for our defense should be able to shut down both aspects. Offensively, we should be able to run as well as pass.
Week 4 - Sep 29 Steelers (LOSS 3-1)
Offensive Rank – Pass 14th/Run 26th
Defensive Rank – Pass 1rst/Run 2nd
Draft – With the loss of Harrison, the Steelers went after a OLB that can get after the QB in Jones. Considered by most to be a strong and powerful pass rusher with the burst to beat offensive tackles around the corner and the speed to close on quarterbacks, Jones has the talent to be an impact edge rusher. The addition of Laveon Bell, RB, and Marcus Wheaton, WR, they got some help to address the loss of Wallace and what was a weak running attack.
Vets - QB Bruce Gradkowski, TE Matt Spaeth, OT Guy Whimper, CB William Gay.
As with the past, this teams grows their own replacements.
Analysis – Outside game – Not cold. I want to make this one a win in the biggest way, however, I will resist the urge until after camp so I can see how the passing game works out for them. Anyway, most casual fans don’t know that Pittsburgh turned the ball over more than all but six other NFL squads. Heck I’m a stat nut and I didn’t know it until I started this research. Miller still remains a question and seeings how he is one of Big Bens favorite targets, other receivers are going to have to step up especially with Wallace leaving for greener pastures.
Tough matchup defensively. We should be able to stop the run and our new DB’s will be tested to cover a questionable WR corps. Need to get after a scrambling QB early and often. Tougher matchup for our offense. Will need to be patient and don’t make turnovers. Let the defensive control the field and keep us close enough for our ST’s to score points.
Week 5 BYE
Week 6 - Oct 13 Panthers (WIN 4-1)
Offensive Rank – Pass 16th/Run 9th
Defensive Rank – Pass 13th/Run 14th
Draft – When the Panthers grabbed Star Lotulelei in round one followed up by grabbing Kawaan Short in the second, gave them a dominant interior player rotation that along with two very good DE’s in Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy. This should create what could be the best 3-4 DL’s in the league in 2014.
Vets - WR Domenik Hixon, DT Colin Cole, ILB Chase Blackburn, CB D.J. Moore, CB Drayton Florence, S Michael Mitchell, KR Ted Ginn.
Hixon should be productive right away. I like the addition of Blackburn as well.
Analysis Home/Dome game. One of the other QB’s that I like to point to when people try to tell me that QB’s are instantly great in this league. They aren’t, what they are is inconsistent. Just like our QB, Newtons play was inconsistent at best because (1-6 in the first 7 games) and 5 and 1 in the last 6 because of his eight interceptions to just five passing touchdowns. Luckily, he got hot towards the end of the year throwing 10 TD’s and only 2 INT’s in the final six games.
Another tough matchup for our defense. Question is, will we be able to keep a running QB in the pocket? Offensively we should be able to move the ball but will have to remain patient with a middle of the pack defense.Many many thanks to my talented friend Jos for the new Sig.
08-05-2013, 12:18 PM #2
Week 7 - Oct 21 AT Giants (WIN 5-1)
Offensive Rank – Pass 12th/Run 14th
Defensive Rank – Pass 28th/Run 25th
Draft – Although the drafting of an OT (Pugh) was somewhat of a surprise, the drafting of Hankins (DT) wasn’t. He should provide immediate help to a DL that has been on the decline of late. Additionally, with Umenyiora moving on to the Falcons and big questions with Justin Tucks production being down last year, the Giants grabbed a good DE in Moore.
Vets - WR Louis Murphy, TE Brandon Myers, TE Michael Palmer, DT Cullen Jenkins, DT Mike Patterson, OLB Aaron Curry, ILB Dan Connor, CB Aaron Ross, K Josh Brown.
Lots of help on the defensive side of the ball. It will be very interesting to see what that side of the ball looks like this year.
Analysis – Outside game – Not cold. Something interesting I found out is that beginning in Week 7 against the Redskins, Eli threw more interceptions than touchdowns in five of his next eight games, all while completing more than 61 percent of his passes just twice between Weeks 8 and 16. The Giants claim arm fatigue was the reason, I say it was his WR’s. If I’m right, it just goes to show you how bad a good QB can look if his WR’s are all dinged up. A good place to look at a example of this will be the Patriots, Brady to Who should be fun to watch.
Anyway, this will be a tough matchup for our defense as it will face what should be a middle of the pack, but balanced offense if Eli has targets to throw to. Our offense should be able to dictate to a defense that can’t stop the pass or the run.
Week 8 - Oct 27 Packers (WIN 6-1)
Offensive Rank – Pass 9th/Run 20th
Defensive Rank – Pass 11th/Run 17th
Draft – Big buzz is over the Packers taking 2 RB’s in this draft, but is should be centered on what they did to also improve the OL that will have to open running lanes as well as keep the league’s most hit QB healthy all year. Defensively, don’t be surprised if new DE Jones has 10-plus sacks as a rookie. He should feast on what are a couple of weak T’s for the Bears and Lions.
Vets - TE Matthew Mulligan.
YUP, a TE.
Analysis - Home/Dome game. Our defense will face a team that will try to run but should struggle, making them one dimensional via the passing game. If their OL can’t protect better, our defense should be able to hassle the QB into a few turnovers and throw aways. Offensively we should be able to run against them all day with some passing mixed in to keep the defense off balance.
Week 9 - Nov 3 AT Cowboys (LOSS 6-2)
Offensive Rank – Pass 3rd/Run 31rst
Defensive Rank – Pass 19th/Run 22nd
Draft – A lot of people questioned the Cowboys moving down and missing out on defensive players that could help their shift in scheme but if you look closely at their inability to run the ball and protect their QB it comes as no surprise to me that they would go out and try to fix the middle of their OL. Frederick gives them a mean nasty that will probably be their new Center but if that doesn’t work out, he can give them immediate help at G. Adding Escobar in the second also was a big surprise, but he gives them a “In-line” TE that can block as well as get out into the routes allowing them to employ a dual TE attack becoming vogue (been trying to get that word in from the start) in the league.
Vets - OLB Justin Durant, S Will Allen.
I am sure the lack of CAP kept them from going after some key players they could have really used, especially the defensive transition. I’m still not sure they have the right guys to put a effective base 4-3 on the field.
Analysis – Dome Game. A good matchup for our defense from the running side of the ball, but will have to work at it to stop a potent passing attack. Offensively we should be able to control the ball with the run and the pass thus keeping our defense off the field.
Week 10 – Nov 10 Redskins (WIN 7-2)
Offensive Rank – Pass 20th/Run 1rst
Defensive Rank – Pass 30th/Run 5th
Draft – With no pick in the first round, and after getting lit up by the likes of our guy Christian Ponder for the tune of 300 plus last year, the Redskins definitely needed to address their secondary woes and did by adding what was considered to be a first round talent (until he started dropping balls) in David Emerson. Although he will probably only come in on passing downs, the selection of Jordan Reed at TE should help a passing offense that wasn’t as great as most believe last year.
Vets - WR Devery Henderson, WR Donte' Stallworth, OT Jeremy Trueblood, DE Darryl Tapp, CB E.J. Biggers.
Love the WR additions. Henderson and Stallworth should give RGIII some reliable targets.
Analysis – Home/Dome game. Most people think Pass and RGIII when you say Redskins, I say run and Morris. If we can shut him down, stop RGIII on a few key runs, we should be able to hold them to minimal points. I hope our crowd brings their “A” game for this one and helps our “D” out. Offensively, we will have to have our passing game step up for this one. Look for this one to be the best game our passing offense has, much like we saw last year when we put up huge passing numbers against them.
Week 11 - Nov 17 AT Seahawks (LOSS 7-3)
Offensive Rank – Pass 25th/Run 3rd
Defensive Rank – Pass 6th/Run 10th
Draft – Surprise picks of a questionable RB with their second and a DT in the third that doesn’t fit their scheme leaves many wondering what the Seahawks were doing in the draft. It will be interesting to see if the gamble to not take a WR high, because of the Harvin acquisition will pay off especially when you consider that Rice says he is finally injury free. My guess is Boldin will be the one that steps up for them if anyone does at all if not, look for them to struggle in the passing game again this year.
Vets - WR Percy Harvin, DE Cliff Avril, DE Michael Bennett, DT Tony McDaniel, CB Antoine Winfield, CB Marcus Trufant.
Can you say Hip Injury? I can…..This team was a solid team going into the offseason. Are they 100% ready to make a Superbowl run based on offseason moves? I’m not sure but it won’t take much to get them there so not all of their moves have to be spot on.
Analysis – Grass/Outdoors – Loud crowd. Like I said for the Redskins, the same applies for the Seahawks. Most think Wilson but I think Lynch. If our front 4 can hold the gaps and win in the trenches, the back 7 should be able to contain a weak passing offense. The bigger struggle will be for our offense vs what is a very strong and very balanced defense.
Week 12 - Nov 24 AT Packers (WIN 8-3)
Offensive Rank – Pass 9th/Run 20th
Defensive Rank – Pass 11th/Run 17th
Analysis – Grass/Outdoors – Could cold be an issue but game is early not late. Our defense will face a team that will try to run but should struggle, making them one dimensional via the passing game. If their OL can’t protect better, our defense should be able to hassle the QB into a few turnovers and throw aways. Offensively we should be able to run against them all day with some passing mixed in to keep the defense off balance.Many many thanks to my talented friend Jos for the new Sig.
08-05-2013, 12:20 PM #3
Week 13 - Dec 1 Bears (WIN 9-3)
Offensive Rank – Pass 29th/Run 10th
Defensive Rank – Pass 8th/Run 8th
Week 14 - Dec 8 AT Ravens (LOSS 9-4)
Offensive Rank – Pass 15th/Run 11th
Defensive Rank – Pass 17th/Run 20th
Draft – The Ravens had significant losses on their defense. The take a risk and select an Elam as S, Arthur Brown at ILB to replace Ray Lewis, and Brandon Williams at DT who won’t be the dynamic play maker most craved, but should prove to be a solid starting nose tackle in this league. I think most are writing this team off but not me. I’m sure their GM had a plan going into this offseason and most of his moves look like he has executed most of the stuff he wanted to.
Vets - C A.Q. Shipley, DE/DT Chris Canty, DE/DT Marcus Spears, DE/OLB Elvis Dumervil, ILB Rolando McClain, CB Cary Williams, S Michael Huff.
I really like what Ozzie has done this offseason especially landing Dumervill after the Broncos messed that up.
Analysis Outdoors game/Cold could be an issue – Isn’t a late game. This game is a bit deceiving when it comes to their offensive statistics. The change to the OL as well as play calling from a more vertical to a more controlled (Dink/Dunk) scheme when they switched O-coords really doesn’t show in their ranking. This will be a tough matchup vs a team that can control the ball either with the run or with the pass. Same can be said for their defense. Question is, did they add enough and have the right players sitting on the bench to match what they defense did last year.
Week 15 - Dec 15 Eagles (WIN 10-4)
Offensive Rank – Pass 13th/Run 13th
Defensive Rank – Pass 9th/Run 23rd
Draft - The Eagles needed to make sure they had the right pieces in place on the OL to make their new offense work, whatever it is going to be. By selecting T Lane Johnson, they now have the flexibility of starting him at right tackle or, depending on Jason Peters, moving him over to LT right away. Next they made a very surprising move and drafting Ertz at TE. If you stop and look at it thought, it shouldn’t have been a surprise because they can now team him with Celek which would give them two athletic tight ends who can line up in a variety of spots. They also each have the hands and receiving skills to make plays running after the catch which will be a key to that offense.
Vets - QB Dennis Dixon, RB Felix Jones, WR Arrelious Benn, WR Ifeanyi Momah, TE James Casey, DE/DT Clifton Geathers, NT Isaac Sopoaga, DE/OLB Connor Barwin, DE/OLB Emmanuel Acho, ILB Jason Phillips, CB Bradley Fletcher, CB Cary Williams, S Kenny Phillips, S Patrick Chung, P Donnie Jones.
As with a couple of other teams, this one is one that I’m really curious to see what they look like when the 53 man roster is announced.
Analysis - Dome/Home game. The biggest question going into the season is “What kindof offense will they run”?. They have the talent to be a good offense especially if that OL can stay healthy and they have the right QB. By week 15 our scouts should have enough tape for our defensive coaching staff to come up with a scheme to try to shut them down. Offensively we will have to run it down their throat and pass enough to keep their defense on its heels.
Week 16 - Dec 22 AT Bengals (WIN 11-4)
Offensive Rank – Pass 17th/Run 18th
Defensive Rank – Pass 7th/Run 12th
Draft – After a surprising rookie year, Dalton started to come back to the rest of his draft class last year. Mostly because of how poorly his starting TE and RB’s played last year. When they added the best tight end in the draft and then followed that up by picking a dynamic RB in Giovani Bernard, the Bengals staff fixed both problems by adding playmakers at the two positions that it was needed most.
Vets - QB Josh Johnson, QB John Skelton, C Mike Pollak, OLB James Harrison.
Two QB’s clearly say, “We aren’t 100% sure of our QB”. Pollack is a nice addition if Faine, Robinson or Cook can’t win the job. Could be a possibility because all 3 got a crack at it last year.
Analysis – Outdoors game. Cold could be an issue. Not a late game. This will be a tough matchup for our defense especially if their run improvements pay dividends. Our offense will face what could be one of the most unheralded defenses in the league last year. Look for Musgrove to try to exploit the outside edges with AD and short miss-direction passes.
Week 17 - Dec 29 Lions (WIN 12-4)
Offensive Rank – Pass 2nd/Run 23rd
Defensive Rank – Pass 14th/Run 16thMany many thanks to my talented friend Jos for the new Sig.
08-05-2013, 04:47 PM #4Starter
- Join Date
- May 2007
Seems to be a bit bold of a prediction and would require a big step forward from Ponder. I think the Vikes will be closer to 8-8 or 9-7. I say split with Packers & Bears and lose at Giants for the three additional losses to take it down to 9-7.
08-06-2013, 07:40 AM #5
12-4? That's a pretty bold prediction Marrdro.
"If at first you don't succeed, parachuting is not for you"
08-06-2013, 10:08 AM #6
08-06-2013, 10:18 AM #7
What is different this year?
1. QB that should be better. His NFL rating went from 70.1 in 2011 to 81.2 in 2012. If he does the same this year that would put him around a 90 which would be in the top 10 (going off last years top 10).
2012 NFL Player Passing Stats - National Football League - ESPN
Don't get me wrong, I don't see him being a top 10 QB, but it isn't out of the question that he will make about the same jump from 2012 to 2013 as he did from 2011 to 2012.
2. Our WR corps, and TE's for that matter, will be a heck of alot better.
3. Our defense will be alot better this year. Our rookies from last year have one more year under their belts and their performance in camp (take that as you will) shows that they are going to be better.
Floyd is going to be a jewel in disguise this year and about week 4 or 5, everyone is going to know it.
3. Punting alone should improve us by one game especially considering this new kid booms 70 yard punts with the same hang time as he does 40 and 50's and has hit a 90 yarder in camp.
4. AD is going to be AD for the full season. Don't forget, he wasn't AD for the first half of the season (Yes Steve I know he had two 100+ games).
I think all of that, coupled with the team issues I listed in the analysis, 2 more wins isn't really that bold. What games do you think I missed on?Many many thanks to my talented friend Jos for the new Sig.
08-06-2013, 11:12 AM #8
Wow there is quite the analysis here. Im just gonna throw out a record. 9-7. A bit pessimistic i think but everything really came together last year and i just have a bad feeling we take a step back this year.
I get the most pissed off looks from people with my VKG 4 LFE Wisconsin license plate, and I LOVE IT!!
08-07-2013, 12:19 AM #10
Schedule Breakdown (Wins - Losses)
12-4?! Lol not with Ponder.