Thread: Ponder wants to complete 75% of his pass attempts

Don't know what his % was on 1st & 2nd down, but he was 60% total (21-35) today. As I said earlier in this post, I'd rather see a lower completion % and a win like the one today, rather than a 75% completion & a loss.

Originally Posted by singersp

Don't know what his % was on 1st & 2nd down, but he was 60% total (21-35) today. As I said earlier in this post, I'd rather see a lower completion % and a win like the one today, rather than a 75% completion & a loss.

He was 14/24 on first and second down, so 58%, although that is a little misleading... 5 of those incompletions (and one completion) came in the last 52 seconds of the first half when they were trying to get into FG position - deep shots that they dont mind being incomplete because it stops the clock. He was 13/18 on first and second down the rest of the game (72%) - and THAT is exactly what we are looking for.

Originally Posted by NodakPaul

... deep shots that they dont mind being incomplete because it stops the clock.

Deep shots that are complete and then out of bounds or in the endzone are better.

Originally Posted by NodakPaul

He was 14/24 on first and second down, so 58%, although that is a little misleading... 5 of those incompletions (and one completion) came in the last 52 seconds of the first half when they were trying to get into FG position - deep shots that they dont mind being incomplete because it stops the clock. He was 13/18 on first and second down the rest of the game (72%) - and THAT is exactly what we are looking for.

That might be what you want, but I actually want us to be better than 2 for 6 when trying to get into scoring position before the half. I mind if they are incomplete, I'd like them caught. Being able to score when time is waning down before the half & end of the game IS when I'd like to see the Vikings perform well, just like we saw the past 2 weeks or should we not count those final drives?

It's not misleading, that's what it was. No, those 6 passes weren't all "deep shots" like you're insinuating. 4 were short, 2 were deep. 2, not 1 was complete, 4 were incomplete.

(sarcasm on) Incidentally, Gerhart's stats are a little misleading. He was 8 for 18 with 3 fumbles, but 3 of those yards and 3 of those fumbles on 4 carries came in the final minutes of the game when we were simply trying to eat up the clock. The rest of the game he had 4 carries for 15 yards with no fumbles and THAT is exactly what we are looking from a back up RB. (sarcasm off)

Look, I'm not trying to knock Ponder at all. I think he did great. I don't care if he made the 75% or not, he played a heck of a game & we won. That's what matters. There's no need to "cherry pick" & toss out certain 1st & 2nd down pass attempts to make his completion % look better. We could do that with any player's stats.

We will see if the deep ball rate goes up with Simpson on the field. He is no superstar but should be better than any deep threat we have now. In the end Ponder will never be a threat to go 80 yards in the air. If we are lucky he will be good enough to be able to put the ball in the gaps of zone defenses and let the WT get the yards after the catch.

Originally Posted by singersp

That might be what you want, but I actually want us to be better than 2 for 6 when trying to get into scoring position before the half. I mind if they are incomplete, I'd like them caught. Being able to score when time is waning down before the half & end of the game IS when I'd like to see the Vikings perform well, just like we saw the past 2 weeks or should we not count those final drives?

It's not misleading, that's what it was. No, those 6 passes weren't all "deep shots" like you're insinuating. 4 were short, 2 were deep. 2, not 1 was complete, 4 were incomplete.

(sarcasm on) Incidentally, Gerhart's stats are a little misleading. He was 8 for 18 with 3 fumbles, but 3 of those yards and 3 of those fumbles on 4 carries came in the final minutes of the game when we were simply trying to eat up the clock. The rest of the game he had 4 carries for 15 yards with no fumbles and THAT is exactly what we are looking from a back up RB. (sarcasm off)

Look, I'm not trying to knock Ponder at all. I think he did great. I don't care if he made the 75% or not, he played a heck of a game & we won. That's what matters. There's no need to "cherry pick" & toss out certain 1st & 2nd down pass attempts to make his completion % look better. We could do that with any player's stats.

I'm not cherry picking - you are missing the point.

The gameplan is to be more successful on first and second down to eliminate 3rd and long situations. I am watching for him to have success in those situations - and he is. In the last 52 seconds of a half with no time outs, the gameplan is different - they want to take shots that will either be incomplete or allow the player to run out of bounds to allow the clock to stop. They were successful in that as well (we got the FG, as I am sure you remember).

I said from the very beginning of this thread that the 75% was a series goal, not a game or career goal. There are times in games, like that FG drive, in which short, accurate passes are not as beneficial, so the percentage will naturally go down.

I am not trying to make anybody's stats look better, but I am adding context to the stats. Looking at stats without context is too easily manipulated. For instance, Ponder had a higher QB rating against Indy than he did against San Fran. In fact, the San Fran game was his lowest rated game this year - and yet it was probably his best this year...

The fact is that Ponder was 13/18 on first and second down during the majority of the game. That is right in line with the goal.

Originally Posted by Purple Floyd

We will see if the deep ball rate goes up with Simpson on the field. He is no superstar but should be better than any deep threat we have now. In the end Ponder will never be a threat to go 80 yards in the air. If we are lucky he will be good enough to be able to put the ball in the gaps of zone defenses and let the WT get the yards after the catch.

I think it will go up marginally. I actually think it will improve out middle game more than our deep. But with that it will add another WR threat that will help open up our other WRs and RBs for additional YAC.

Originally Posted by NodakPaul

I'm not cherry picking - you are missing the point.

The gameplan is to be more successful on first and second down to eliminate 3rd and long situations. I am watching for him to have success in those situations - and he is. In the last 52 seconds of a half with no time outs, the gameplan is different - they want to take shots that will either be incomplete or allow the player to run out of bounds to allow the clock to stop. They were successful in that as well (we got the FG, as I am sure you remember).

So then, if you're not looking at 1st & 2nd downs in situations when we are trying to score in the waning minutes/seconds of the half or end of game on our final drives, then you shouldn't include them in your criteria for the past two games as well, as the game plan was different in those drives also.

Selecting which games too include them or exclude them is cherry picking.

I'm pretty sure you used his last 7 completions to 2 incompletions on 1st & 2nd in your total last week.

Originally Posted by singersp

So then, if you're not looking at 1st & 2nd downs in situations when we are trying to score in the waning minutes/seconds of the half or end of game on our final drives, then you shouldn't include them in your criteria for the past two games as well, as the game plan was different in those drives also.

Selecting which games too include them or exclude them is cherry picking.

I'm pretty sure you used his last 7 completions to 2 incompletions on 1st & 2nd in your total last week.

Again, missing the forest for the trees...

The whole point behind the 75% completion on first and second downs is to keep the team in a manageable third down. Ponder has been doing exactly that all three games.

When I looked at his first ans second down completion percentage for this game and noticed it was 58.3%, I was surprised, because during the game it looked to me like he was managing the ball fairly well in early downs. Did he fail at his goal of having a high percentage on first and second? Is this something the OC should look at and either correct or change the scheme? Was his previous success the result of playing poor defenses?

I was curious, so I looked at the play by play and realized that the completion percentages were skewed by the series at the very end of the first half. The rest of the game he was very close to his stated goal. That made sense to me, which is why I posted BOTH his overall completion percentage as well as some context around it.

I am NOT ignoring the final two minutes of any game. I AM looking at situational stats to see if Ponder is achieving or failing at his goal of having a high completion percentage on first and second downs. I think he is succeeding. If you viewed it as cherry picking, I'm sorry... I really don't know how else to explain it.

The fact that Ponder IS achieving his goal of having a high completion percentage on first and second is a pretty big deal to me. I think we are moving in the right direction as an offense, and I expect to continue to see us making short, accurate passes on first and second down.

16 plays, 82 yards, TD -- time off clock 7:40
11 plays, 80 yards, TD -- time off clock 6:44
12 plays, 86 yards, TD -- time off clock 7:00

3 drives that consumed close to 22 min. That's what they are trying to accomplish with high percentage 1st and 2nd down passing plays. Sunday was a great example of it working out.

As Nodak, points out, when they are going for a quick score to end a half or a game with limited time, they will not be in their normal offense.