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  1. #31
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    He'll be lucky to complete 25% ofhis passes
    We're bringing purple back.

  2. #32
    NoCalOnline is offline Waterboy
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    Ponder wants to complete 75% of his pass attempts

    I'll take the over and give 3:1 odds on 25%

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by gregair13 View Post
    He'll be lucky to complete 25% ofhis passes
    I will take that bet. There is no way in hell he only completes 25%. Now we're just being ridiculous.
    Zeus wrote:
    When are you going to realize that picking out the 20 bad throws this year and ignoring the 300 good ones does not make your point?

    =Z=

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by NodakPaul View Post
    Who cares how far the passes were actually thrown? The point behind the 75% goal is to minimize third and long situations. And it is working...
    What I care about are what happens on those 3rd downs. He was 8-10 on 1st & 2nd down, which was all well & good, but that means he was 2-5 on 3rd down passes, which isn't good.

    In the following week, he was 7-10 on 1st & 2nd down, which is still good, but that means he was 2-6 on 3rd down passes, which is terrible.

    I care about that.

    "If at first you don't succeed, parachuting is not for you"

  5. #35
    NodakPaul's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by singersp View Post
    What I care about are what happens on those 3rd downs. He was 8-10 on 1st & 2nd down, which was all well & good, but that means he was 2-5 on 3rd down passes, which isn't good.

    In the following week, he was 7-10 on 1st & 2nd down, which is still good, but that means he was 2-6 on 3rd down passes, which is terrible.

    I care about that.
    I agree.

    High percentage on 1st and 2nd downs minimize 3rd and long situations, which have a lower success rate. How many of those 3rd downs that you references came on 3rd and long?

    FYI, your math is off in the Bills game - Ponder was 10 for 13 against the bills and you have him going 10 for 15. If you are including the times he had to scramble, then you need to count it when he makes the first down scrambling, putting his 3rd down rate to 3/5, which isn't bad.
    Zeus wrote:
    When are you going to realize that picking out the 20 bad throws this year and ignoring the 300 good ones does not make your point?

    =Z=

  6. #36
    singersp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NodakPaul View Post
    I agree.

    High percentage on 1st and 2nd downs minimize 3rd and long situations, which have a lower success rate. How many of those 3rd downs that you references came on 3rd and long?

    FYI, your math is off in the Bills game - Ponder was 10 for 13 against the bills and you have him going 10 for 15. If you are including the times he had to scramble, then you need to count it when he makes the first down scrambling, putting his 3rd down rate to 3/5, which isn't bad.
    I stand corrected on the Bills game. He was actually 2 for 3 on those 3rd downs.

    As far as 3rd & long goes, what do you consider long or short?

    In the 49ers game, Ponder was 4-9. He was 3 of 7 on 1st & 2nd downs & 1-2 on 3rd.

    3rd downs were 4, 6 & 7 yards. None of those came a result of completed passes on 1st or 2nd. The 6 & 7 yarders had prior incomplete passes on 1st or 2nd.

    We converted on only the 4 yarder with a short pass.

    In the Bills game 3rd downs were 2, 2 4, 6 & 8 yards. All were a result of completed passes on 1st or 2nd except the 8 yarder which was the result of 2 runs.

    The 2, 2, & 6 were converted with 2runs & a pass. The other two failed after a short incomplete & short completed pass.

    In the Chargers game 3rd downs were 1, 3, 9, 9, 10, 16, 18 & 19 yards. The 1, 9 & 10 yarder were the result of 2 runs. The 3, 18 & 19 yards were a result of completed passes on 1st or 2nd. The other 9 & the 16 each had a prior incomplete pass on 1st or 2nd.

    7 of the 8 conversions failed. the 1 & 16 failed on run attempts. Both 9's & the 19 yarders failed with incompleted short pass attempts. The 3 yarder was intercepted. The 18 yarder failed after a short complete pass. The 10 yarder was converted with a pass.

    So, he is 18 of 27 (67%) on 1st & 2nd so far & 5-11 (45%) on 3rd.

    10 of our 16 3rd downs were 5 yards or more. 4 had prior incomplete passes, 3 had prior completed passes & 3 were prior runs. We converted 2 of the 10 (6, 10). Both with passes

    6 of our 16 3rd downs were 5 yards or less. 4 had prior completed passes & 2 were prior runs.
    We converted 3 of the 6. 2 with runs, 1 with a pass.

    All 3rd down pass attempts were short regardless of the distance we needed. 5 were complete, 1 was intercepted, 5 were incomplete.

    Take it for what it's worth.

    "If at first you don't succeed, parachuting is not for you"

  7. #37
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    So far it isn't looking too good against one of the worst teams in the NFL.

    The only thing that looks worse than our pass offense is our pass defense.

  8. #38
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    Ponder finished with 74% overall. 270 yards.

    Anyone? Anyone?

    Didn't think so.
    Zeus wrote:
    When are you going to realize that picking out the 20 bad throws this year and ignoring the 300 good ones does not make your point?

    =Z=

  9. #39
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    For sure a clutch throw there at the end to get into fg range. Can't argue with a "W"
    Tuco the world.....

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jereamiah View Post
    Can't argue with a "W"
    Someone will. Just wait...
    Zeus wrote:
    When are you going to realize that picking out the 20 bad throws this year and ignoring the 300 good ones does not make your point?

    =Z=

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