I think Bridgewater gives us the highest chance of winning now. His accuracy is top notch. His completion percentage from last year was higher than any QB in the NFL who threw 50 or more attempts. His particular skill that impresses the most and makes him potentially special at the position is how he plays vs. the blitz and with pressure in his face, completing nearly 80% of his passes when under duress.
I had to dig a bit to find it again, but the article below is well worth a read, going pretty deep breaking down the top 4 QBs and where/when/how they achieved their statistical success. Sure, stats is a small part of the whole picture, but a significant part none the less...you want to see some signs of success, and presumably, more Ws than Ls.
2014's Quarterback Conundrum - Out Of The Box - Rotoworld.com
At the moment, my guess is the pick will be QB if one of the top 3; Bortles, Bridgewater or Manziel, happen to get to pick 8. Otherwise defense, and hopefully after a move back.
Personally, I like a couple of guys like Mettenberger and McCarron nearly as much as those three, and better than Carr...one of those guys might be there the 8th pick of the third, or, if we start getting sweaty palms waiting, we could give up both our thirds to get back into the back end of the 2nd to snag our signal caller of choice...while still adding 2 other immediate difference makers at positions of need like LB and LG, or CB.
I'm not biting. I know when guys shoot up boards at the end of the eyar it is almost always fools gold. I watched some draft tapes of his but I saw nothing better than Bridge.
Originally Posted by smegmavike
Bridgewater looks much better on tape IMO. One thing for sure though...the Vikes won't be choosing between the two. One MAY be there, and we'll probably take him if he is. Manziel...that's tough to say. It will be interesting. Strange to think it's still almost two months away.
A Ponder-esque Dilemma
I would love to go to Happy Hour at a bar in Minny with a few of y'all and Zimm, Norv, and (yes) Spielman, and just watch/listen to some of us PP.Oers debate our points with true pros.
Regardless of the points, many valid, the likelihood that Bortles, Bridgewater, Manziel, Mettenberger, McCarron, Carr, Fales, or Garropolo all succeed, or most, is unlikely. The odds that two, possibly three, succeed, is more likely. Of course, the definition of "succeed" is widely varied, and depends on your lens. Did Tommy Kramer succeed? Wade Wilson? Rich Gannon?
Arguments can be made for drafting each and everyone of them, depending on strategy and scenario.
By the way, I've seen mention to the "watch film on 'him'," as a challenge to some points. Kevon, are you watching the same film as Zimm, Norv, Spielman, etc.? If so, cool. If not, stop.
Yes, I have opinions too... I think if any of the "top 3" QBs are available at #8, the trigger will be pulled. If not, Mettenberger is the target.
If McCarron is going to be there in the 2nd then picking up a OL or Dl guy is a no brainer. Our LB suffered last year and this would be a good time to upgrade. IS there any news on Zimmer changing the format to a 3-4?
I'm pretty sure there was an interview somewhere with him stating that he preferred the 4-3 and would be running that as a base defense (as he did in CIN.) But that we may see some different looks including a bit of 3-4 mixed in. Also, we've added zero LBs, so at the moment, we'd have a hard time pulling 3 starters out of that group much less 4...while we seem to have built up a pretty strong starting lineup of Robison-Joseph-Floyd-Griffen for the front four.
Originally Posted by Mark_The_Viking
At the moment, I guess I like Bortles best...he's got the size, and looked like a star in his bowl game vs. no.6 ranked Baylor who were favored by 17 points (I think?) But, it is going to be a major change in competition level from his schedule to the NFL, and he would most likely be best served with a year of sitting, simmering and improving his foundations.
Bridgewater has the best accuracy and most success, but also played lesser competition and does have the dreaded "small hands syndrome," as in his are closer to 9" long while Manziel's are 10.
Manziel might be the most fun to watch, but may need the most refining to playing from the pocket. Despite the knock on his passing tho, he did throw the most "deep balls" of over 20 yards, and also had the highest completion % on those throws. His elusive scrambling ability is something special, and buying time for your WRs to get open downfield improves the chance of deep ball success. Something that might fit very well with all the attention Mr. Peterson brings to the LOS.
So, I'm kind of torn in that I might prefer some of the superstar defenders that are available early in this draft, but will also be fine with any one of these three if our pros (who know way more than me having watched way more tape and actually talked to them, their coaches and extended families) make the decision that they can be our QBotF.
I watched Bortles play in a few games and I watched him beat Penn state. He appears to be a good leader in the huddle and a clutch player (beating Louisville and Bridgewater in the last minutes). He has the measurable as far as height, weight, arm. I think with Turner he may be able to become the next Roethlisberger. Bridgewater is not that big and I worry about his durability and his accuracy .
Originally Posted by kevoncox
That's pretty much the way I see it. 3 completely different QB's that are going to have polarizing opinions from fans and experts alike on their long term viability.
Originally Posted by mountainviking
Bridgewater appears the most ready to start of the 3, however, if he gets drafted early he will go to a bad team that will probably ruin him before he gets started, unless its the Texans than he may have a chance. His ceiling seems somewhat set, but that's a pretty empty prediction.
Bortles is the prototypical QB that the NFL seems to drool over. However, he appears to be a bit raw yet and needs some time with a good system to develop properly.
Manziel is a complete wildcard and will bring fans instantly to their franchise. Cleveland keeps being mentioned as the most likely landing spot, which I can see. I would be surprised if Houston takes him. Whoever gets him will get entertainment value and I would not be surprised to see him get put in early in his career. He won't be overwhelmed by the game, but he will be unorthodox and may aggravate the shit out of his coaching staff. Injury concerns will be high as well due to his frame and style of play.
I don't have a very strong opinion on any of them, but I like the idea of Bortles sitting behind Cassell for a year or two and learning the game from the QB coach guru Scott Turner (according to Minniman anyway).
My current vision of how the first 8 picks unfold:
1) Texans - Bridgewater or Bortles .... leaning towards Bortles, but Bridgewater may make more sense if O'Brien wants a start now QB, which he may.
2) St. Louis - OT - Robinson/Mathews
3) Jacksonville - Clowney -- even with the recent DL signings, they are not superstars like this dude should be
4) Cleveland - Manziel, boost for the fanbase
5) Oakland - Watkins -- how can Oakland pass up on a flashy WR, unless they trade for Desean
6) Atlanta - Khalil Mack, lucky Falcons this guy made it this far
7) Tampa Bay - Robinson/Mathews, may take QB as well even though they signed McCown, but the safer pick to fill a real need is OT who happens to be BPA
8) Minnesota - That leaves either Bortles or Bridgewater available along with Barr the two top corners and even Mike Evans if you want to bookend the offense with two tall receivers and let Jennings chew them up in the middle. My guess is they take QB and we have either Bortles or Bridgewater sitting behind Cassell as long as Norv and Zimmer can stand it.
Another thing to consider in taking a QB with this first round pick is how it relates to team building. Teams picking in the top 10 usually need a lot more than a QB to become a good team.
Originally Posted by MaxVike
Do you grab a good QB and hope he can be successful on a bad team ? Or is it better to build the team around the QB you have first ?
Drafting a rookie QB onto a bad team doesn't sound like a recipe for success, unless it's Andrew Luck.
I would have no problem with drafting a later round developmental QB and using the earlier pick or picks to build the team around the QB we have.
Impossible to know what Spielman and company will do when you have no inside knowledge, but it is entertaining to speculate.
IMO O'Brien is not going to take Bridgewater with the first pick, he either will pick Bortles or go with the BPA. So if we are using your logic then Bridgewater will be there for us. I say we trade back if Bortles, Watkins, Mack or Barr are not there. Get another pick and draft Shazier out of OSU. I watched a lot of big ten games and he is a playmaker, add to the fact he just ran a 4.4 during OSU's pro day. That should give us another second round pick.
Originally Posted by tastywaves