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Thread: Playoff Picture

  1. #1
    Viking in Arkansas is offline Training Camp
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    Playoff Picture

    So I have done some research to see what has to happen for us to make the playoffs. We definitely don't have an easy route, but I think it is possible. Obviously, we need to win out. I think it comes down to the Green Bay game. I think we are better than STL, and will beat them. Houston seems unrealistic on the road, but they may rest their starters or lack motivation. We need to be cheering for the Texans tonight. If they win tonight they will be 12-1 with Denver being 10-3. The Texans beat Denver earlier this year, though. That means the Texans likely clinch the AFC's 1 seed next week. They would have to beat Indy at home, or have Denver lose at Baltimore. If either happen, they clinch homefield. They could rest their starters vs MN, or at least just play them a half with the conference wrapped up. It would definitely give us a good shot of knocking them off if they did that, so it would set up a HUGE game vs Green Bay at the end of the season.

    Here is how I see the rest of the season playing out:

    Chicago 10-6:
    GB - L
    Arizona - W
    DET - W

    Seattle 10-6 clinch WC spot:
    Buffalo-W
    San Francisco - L
    STL - W

    Washington 8-8:
    Cleveland - W
    Philly - L
    Dallas - L

    Dallas 8-8:
    Pitt - L
    NO - L
    Wash - W

    Chicago, Seattle, and MN will all be 10-6. Seattle is the top WC spot due to beating CHI and MN. So to choose the 2nd WC spot you proceed to step 2 of the tiebreaker: best win-loss-tie percentage against conference opponents. The Vikings would be 7-5 for a win percentage at 58%. Chicago would be 5-6 for a 54% winning percentage. The Vikings would get the final spot of the playoffs.

    If we win next weekend, then this is how I see the rest of the season playing out. It will be a fun last few weeks of the season. Hopefully we can finish strong.

  2. #2
    tastywaves's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Viking in Arkansas View Post
    So I have done some research to see what has to happen for us to make the playoffs. We definitely don't have an easy route, but I think it is possible. Obviously, we need to win out. I think it comes down to the Green Bay game. I think we are better than STL, and will beat them. Houston seems unrealistic on the road, but they may rest their starters or lack motivation. We need to be cheering for the Texans tonight. If they win tonight they will be 12-1 with Denver being 10-3. The Texans beat Denver earlier this year, though. That means the Texans likely clinch the AFC's 1 seed next week. They would have to beat Indy at home, or have Denver lose at Baltimore. If either happen, they clinch homefield. They could rest their starters vs MN, or at least just play them a half with the conference wrapped up. It would definitely give us a good shot of knocking them off if they did that, so it would set up a HUGE game vs Green Bay at the end of the season.

    Here is how I see the rest of the season playing out:

    Chicago 10-6:
    GB - L
    Arizona - W
    DET - W

    Seattle 10-6 clinch WC spot:
    Buffalo-W
    San Francisco - L
    STL - W

    Washington 8-8:
    Cleveland - W
    Philly - L
    Dallas - L

    Dallas 8-8:
    Pitt - L
    NO - L
    Wash - W

    Chicago, Seattle, and MN will all be 10-6. Seattle is the top WC spot due to beating CHI and MN. So to choose the 2nd WC spot you proceed to step 2 of the tiebreaker: best win-loss-tie percentage against conference opponents. The Vikings would be 7-5 for a win percentage at 58%. Chicago would be 5-6 for a 54% winning percentage. The Vikings would get the final spot of the playoffs.

    If we win next weekend, then this is how I see the rest of the season playing out. It will be a fun last few weeks of the season. Hopefully we can finish strong.
    Keep the faith ViA. I think we will have a pretty tough game in St. Louis, hopefully they can rise to the challenge.

  3. #3
    Viking in Arkansas is offline Training Camp
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    I agree that STL is going to be tough. Their offense is worse than ours, but their defense is much improved. It maybe a frustrating game to watch, but I think we pull it out. All three of the games worry me. However, if Houston wins tonight, and we can win Sunday, then I honestly expect to be 9-6 going into our game with the Packers. What better way than to end the season than against the Packers with a playoff spot on the line?

  4. #4
    tarkenton10's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Viking in Arkansas View Post
    So I have done some research to see what has to happen for us to make the playoffs. We definitely don't have an easy route, but I think it is possible. Obviously, we need to win out. I think it comes down to the Green Bay game. I think we are better than STL, and will beat them. Houston seems unrealistic on the road, but they may rest their starters or lack motivation. We need to be cheering for the Texans tonight. If they win tonight they will be 12-1 with Denver being 10-3. The Texans beat Denver earlier this year, though. That means the Texans likely clinch the AFC's 1 seed next week. They would have to beat Indy at home, or have Denver lose at Baltimore. If either happen, they clinch homefield. They could rest their starters vs MN, or at least just play them a half with the conference wrapped up. It would definitely give us a good shot of knocking them off if they did that, so it would set up a HUGE game vs Green Bay at the end of the season.

    Here is how I see the rest of the season playing out:

    Chicago 10-6:
    GB - L
    Arizona - W
    DET - W

    Seattle 10-6 clinch WC spot:
    Buffalo-W
    San Francisco - L
    STL - W

    Washington 8-8:
    Cleveland - W
    Philly - L
    Dallas - L

    Dallas 8-8:
    Pitt - L
    NO - L
    Wash - W

    Chicago, Seattle, and MN will all be 10-6. Seattle is the top WC spot due to beating CHI and MN. So to choose the 2nd WC spot you proceed to step 2 of the tiebreaker: best win-loss-tie percentage against conference opponents. The Vikings would be 7-5 for a win percentage at 58%. Chicago would be 5-6 for a 54% winning percentage. The Vikings would get the final spot of the playoffs.

    If we win next weekend, then this is how I see the rest of the season playing out. It will be a fun last few weeks of the season. Hopefully we can finish strong.
    Is that some new math or I am the only one who sees 5 wins and 6 losses being over .500% in this post. I think the number you were looking for is 45%.
    Last edited by tarkenton10; 12-11-2012 at 09:38 AM.

    There s only two things stopping you - fear and common sense!! The Truth you CAN"T HANDLE THE TRUTH!!!!!!!!

  5. #5
    purplehelmut's Avatar
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    I like the faith you have Arkansas, but I don't see it. Seattle will go 10-6 and get one WC. The next one will go to Washington. They will beat the Browns and Eagles on the road and come home to beat Dallas, giving them a 10-6. The Vikings might go 9-7, but I doubt it. That would entail a win at Houston or home against Green Bay and we're not as good as either. St. Louis will be tough, they aren't a bad team at home. However, a 9-7 record for the Vikings would be a successful season after last year's debacle and hopefully provide the impetus to the next level.

  6. #6
    NodakPaul's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by purplehelmut View Post
    I like the faith you have Arkansas, but I don't see it. Seattle will go 10-6 and get one WC. The next one will go to Washington. They will beat the Browns and Eagles on the road and come home to beat Dallas, giving them a 10-6. The Vikings might go 9-7, but I doubt it. That would entail a win at Houston or home against Green Bay and we're not as good as either. St. Louis will be tough, they aren't a bad team at home. However, a 9-7 record for the Vikings would be a successful season after last year's debacle and hopefully provide the impetus to the next level.
    Agree that 10-6 would be very hard for us, but stranger things have happened. You also have more faith in Washington that I do.

    In the end though, I see the Vikings going 8-8 or 9-7 this season, which I agree would be considered successful after what we went through last year. In the end I think Seattle and Chicago get the Wild Card spots.
    Zeus wrote:
    When are you going to realize that picking out the 20 bad throws this year and ignoring the 300 good ones does not make your point?

    =Z=

  7. #7
    purplehelmut's Avatar
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    NP,
    You know I forgot all about the Bears seeing as how bad they've played recently. Looks like they might go 10-6 and in good shape for the second WC. Not sure of the tie-break if Washington goes 10-6. Bottom line, I don't think the Vikings are in the mix having lost to Washington and Seattle.

  8. #8
    Viking in Arkansas is offline Training Camp
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    Sorry, typo.

  9. #9
    Viking in Arkansas is offline Training Camp
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    If the Vikings win out we hold the tie breaker on the Bears, assuming they lose to the Packers.


    I am not saying this stuff will happen, but was just pointing out a way we could make the playoffs. At the time of my post, it was being reported that RG3 could be out up to 4 weeks. Now, it sounds like he may only miss the Cleveland game. I still think that the Cowboys end up beating them. I don't think it is unreasonable to think we may be 9-6 going into the Green Bay game. Houston is a great team, but they really haven't beat many good teams.

  10. #10
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    We finish the year with:
    @ St. Louis (6-6-1)
    @ Houston (11-2)
    vs. Green Bay( 9-4)

    Packers finish with:
    @ Bears (8-5)
    vs. Titans(4-9)
    @ Vikings (7-6)

    Bears finish with:
    vs. Packers (9-4)
    @ Cardinals (4-9)
    @ Lions (4-9)

    This is what it will take for us to Win the division

    MOst likely scenario
    Green Bay clinches the division if they win in Chicago on Sunday, so they MUST LOSE to the bears:
    GB: 9-5(Still 1st place due to divisional record)
    CHI: 9-5
    We of course need to win @ ST. Louis. St. Louis have only won 2 games outside of their division, vs. Redskins and @ BUffalo. They're just not a good team. Our defense should handle them, and AP should go off for 170+ We're 8-6

    Week 16:
    Bears win @ Cardinals (10-5)
    Packers win vs Titans (10-5)
    We win @ Texans (9-6)(Better chance of this happening than the bears or Packers losing this week)

    Week 17:
    Bears lose @ Detroit (10-6) (Divisional game, anything's possible
    Packers lose @ MIN (10-6)
    Vikings win vs. GB (10-6)

    Tiebreaking procedures are:

    Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
    Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
    Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
    Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

    Head-to-head vs. all 3 opponents:
    Bears: 2-2
    Packers: 2-2
    VIkings: 2-2

    Head to step 2:
    Divisional record:
    Vikings: 4-2
    Packers: 4-2
    Bears: 3-3

    Step 3: Common games:
    Bears eliminated, Common games w/ packers are:

    Lions: win
    Lions: win
    Bears: win
    Bears: Lose
    49ers: Viks win, Pack loses: 4-1 vs. 3-2
    seahawks: Lose 4-2 vs. 3-3
    Colts: Lose 4-3 vs. 3-4
    Texans: Win 5-3 vs. 4-4
    Rams: Win 6-3 vs. 5-3
    Jags : Win 7-3 vs. 6-3
    Cards: Win 8-3 vs. 7-3
    Titans: Win 9-3 vs. 8-3

    Vikings win the division, Pack #2 Bears #3

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