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  1. #1
    Prophet's Avatar
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    Play Calling Myth (through 10 games).

    Seriously, this is a first year coach and coaching staff and schemes.
    The people that are panicking and calling out the coach need a reality check.
    There are plenty of threads around looking at some of the historical first years of HCs and their subsequent records.
    At this point it is too early to call for Childress' head and it is too early to call him a hero.


    If you are going to make claims as to what they should do at least back up your claims instead of pulling stuff out of your ass.
    Is predictable play calling one of the huge problems?
    I say no.
    Why?
    Well, here's a simplistic summary just looking at the passing/rushing by downs.
    Obviously, this does not include the specific plays, the boneheaded penalties, the execution of the plays, etc.
    But, as far as I can tell there is no indication that the play calling is simplistic and predictable.

    2006 Regular season
    *A few bits of information for the play calling is the problem crowd follow.
    The abbreviations are P=Pass, R=Run, Pu=Punt, FG=Field Goal.
    [size=8pt]*taken from nfl.com[/size]

    GAME 1: Vikings @ Redskins 19-16

    The first game of the season results in a win in Redskin country.
    Vikings fans are thrilled with the resurgence of the running game and a rare road win against a team predicted to make the playoffs.

    Play calling by down:

    1st
    P,P,R,P,R,R,R,R,P,R,R,R,R,R,P,P,R,R,R,R,R,R,R,R,R (24% passes, 76% runs)
    2nd R,R,P,R,R,R,P,R,P,R,P,R,P,R,P,R.R,R,R,R (30% passes, 70% runs)
    3rd P, P, R,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,R (90% passes, 10% runs)
    4th Pu, Pu, Pu, Pu, FG, Pu,FG

    The running game dominated, but the third downs still resulted in 90% passing.

    GAME 2: Panthers @ Vikings 16-13 OT

    The standout play in this game was the boneheaded cross field pass by Gamble, that Fox took credit for, giving the Vikings a win.
    The purple-shaded faithful began to get excited about the new look Vikings.
    The offense was beginning to worry people, but the defense was refreshing.

    Play calling by down:

    1st
    P,R,R,P,P,R,P,R,R,R,R,P,P,R,R,R,R,P,R,R,P,P,P,P,P, P,R,R,R (45% passes, 55% runs)
    2nd R,R,P,P,R,P,R,P,P,R,R,P,P,P,P,R,R,P,R,R (50% passes, 50% runs)
    3rd R,P,P,R,P,R,R,P,P,P,P,P,P,P, FG (71% passes, 29% runs)
    4th R, FG, Pu, Pu, Pu, FG, R, Pu, P, Pu, Pu

    The most evenly split run/passing game of the year.
    The third downs still resulted in a heavy passing percentage.

    GAME 3: Bears @ Vikings 19-16

    This game was won in the trenches, and the Vikings gave it away in a turnover late in the game.

    Play calling by down:

    1st
    P,R,P,P,R,R,R,P,P,P,R,R,P,P,R,R,P,R,P,R,R,R,P (48% pass, 52% run)
    2nd R,R,R,P,P,R,R,P,R,P,P,P,P,R,P,P,R,P,P (58% pass, 42% run)
    3rd P,P,P,P,P,P,P,R,R,P,P,P,P,P,R,R (75% pass, 25% run)
    4th FG, Pu, Pu, FG, Pu, Pu, FG, P

    Another evenly distributed game in the rushing and passing game.

    GAME 4: Vikings @ Bills 12-17

    Pathetic showing, gave up on the run.

    Play calling by down:

    1st
    R,P,P,R,R,P,R,R,P,P,P,R,P,P,R,R,P,P,P,P,P,P (64% pass, 36% run)
    2nd R,R,P,P,R,P,P,P,P,R,P,P,R,P,P,R,P,P,P (68% pass, 32% run)
    3rd P.P,P,R,P,P,P, FG, P,P,P,P,P (92% pass, 8% run)
    4th FG, Pu, Pu, Pu, Pu, Pu, Pu, P,P

    The first game where passing statistics were considerably higher than the rushing statistics by down, even though the game was within reach.

    GAME 5: Lions @ Vikings 26-17

    Vikings came alive in the fourth quarter scoring 24 pts against the hapless Lions.

    Play calling by down:

    1st
    P,R,P,R,R,R,P,R,R,P,R,P,R,P,R,P,R,P,P,P,R,P,R,R,R, P,R (44% passes, 54% runs)
    2nd R,R,P,R,P,R,P,P,P,P,P,P,R,R,P,R,R,R,P,R,P,P,R,R (50% passes, 50% runs)
    3rd P,P,P,R,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,R (86% pass, 14% run)
    4th FG, Pu, Pu, Pu, Pu, FG,

    Another evenly split game with rushin/passing in the first and second downs, the Viking squeaked out a win by coming alive in the fourth.

    GAME 6: Vikings @ Seattle 31-13
    The Vikings appeared to come alive this game with Chester Taylor having a career day.
    All was well in Viking land.

    Play calling by down:

    1st
    P,R,R,P,R,R,R,R,R,R,P,P,R,P,R,R,R,R,R,R,R (24% pass, 76% run)
    2nd R,P,P,R,P,P,R,P,R,P,R,P,R,R,R (47% pass, 53% run)
    3rd R,P,P,R,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,R (77% pass, 23% run)
    4th FG, Pu, Pu, P, FG, Pu, Pu, Pu

    In this game there was an inverse relationship between the first and third downs regarding rushing/passing.
    The second downs were evenly split with the rushing and passing attack.

    GAME 7: Patriots @ Vikings 7-31

    Vikings were owned.

    Play calling by down:

    1st P,P,R,P,P,R,P,P,R,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,R,P,P,R,P,P,P,P (80% passes, 20% runs)
    2nd P,R,R,R,R,P,P,P,R,P,P,P,P,P,R,P (63% pass, 37% run)
    3rd P,P,R,P,P,P,R,P,P,P,P,P,P (84% pass, 16% run)
    4th Pu, Pu, Pu, P, Pu, Pu, P

    The play calling in this game was similar to the Bills game, however, the Vikings were getting destroyed in this game.
    I still don’t understand why they didn’t pound the ball more in the Bills game.

    GAME 8: Vikings @ 9ers 3-9

    Vikings has a pathetic offensive showing, the defense kept them in the game, again.

    Play calling by down:

    1st P,R,R,R,R,P,R,R,P,P,R,R,P,P,P,R,R,P,R,R,R,R,P,P,P, P,P,R,P (48% passes, 52% run)
    2nd R,R,P,R,R,R,R,R,P,P,P,R,P,R,R,R,R,R,R,R,R (24% passes, 76% run)
    3rd R,R,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,P (86% pass, 14% run)
    4th FG, Pu, Pu, Pu, Pu, Pu, Pu, P

    A nice split statistically, the offense was dead again for reasons we have discussed ad nauseum.

    GAME 9: Packers @ Vikings 17-23

    Vikings has a pathetic offensive showing, the defense kept them in the game, again.

    Play calling by down:

    1st R,R,R,P,R,P,P,R,R,R,R,R,R,R,R,P,R,R,P,P,P (33% passes, 67% run)
    2nd P,P,R,R,R,P,R,R,P,R,P,R,P,R,P,P,P (53% passes, 47% run)
    3rd P,P,P,P,P,P,P,R,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,P (94% passes, 6% run)
    4th Pu, R, Pu, Pu, Pu, Pu, Pu, Pu, FG

    The distribution looks reasonable for the rushing/passing game.
    Some key penalties and lackluster play resulted in another loss.

    GAME 10: Vikings @ Dolphins 20-24

    Vikings lose the game in the 4th qtr, J. Taylor takes over the game.

    Play calling by down:

    1st R,R,R,P,P,R,R,R,R,R,R,R,R,P,P,R,R,R,R,R,R,P,R,R,P, R,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,P (41% passes, 59% run)
    2nd P,P.R,P,P,P,P,R,R,R,P,R,P,P,P,P,P,R,P,P,P,P,P,P,R (72% passes, 28% run)
    3rd R,P,P,R,P,P,P,P,P,R,P,R,P,P,P (73% passes, 27% run)
    4th Pu,Pu,R,R,Pu,FG,Pu,FG,Pu,R,P


    Season Summary:

    1st down: 45% pass, 55% run
    2nd down: 51% pass, 49% run
    3rd down: 83% pass, 17% run

    Of the total plays run so far this season:

    43% were 1st downs
    33% were 2nd downs
    24% were 3rd downs

    So, in 76% of the plays this season (1st & 2nd downs) 48% were passes and 52% were runs.
    If that is predictable, you do not have a good grasp on the simplest level of statistics.

    The Vikings have been in every game this year with the exception of the Patriots game.
    The folks that think it is Childress and play calling are pulling it out of their ass, if not, explain to me how this is true.
    I'm listening.
    Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please. Mark Twain

  2. #2
    Del Rio Guest

    Re: Play Calling Myth (through 10 games).

    Very well done, but what are the odds any of those people actually read that. If they do what are the odds of them accepting that?

    I would say on a good day your odds of that happening are about 1-5%


  3. #3
    cogitans is offline Jersey Retired
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    Re: Play Calling Myth (through 10 games).

    I'm not unhappy with the playcalling. I haven't been since the NE game (and the Buffalo game).

    What we need is execution, and no more turnovers and penalties.

    Thanks to PPE for the sig.

  4. #4
    Prophet's Avatar
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    Re: Play Calling Myth (through 10 games).

    "Del" wrote:
    Very well done, but what are the odds any of those people actually read that. If they do what are the odds of them accepting that?

    I would say on a good day your odds of that happening are about 1-5%

    Agree.
    There will still be the intellectual 'bring back Tice', 'Childress is a wash', 'Start Tarvaris', and 'the play calling is predictable' threads permeating the site even though they have all been logically debunked.
    Thank God the coaches ignore the fans when it comes to coaching.

    I agree cogitans.
    If execution, turnovers, and penalties were under control the Vikings would be sitting a lot better.
    The team is not as bad as some would like to believe.
    In fact, it is closer to being a real team than it was during any of the Meathead years.
    Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please. Mark Twain

  5. #5
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    Re: Play Calling Myth (through 10 games).

    Great post....but it only proves one thing to me....you guys really get off on telling people they are wrong. ;D

  6. #6
    cogitans is offline Jersey Retired
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    Re: Play Calling Myth (through 10 games).

    "Acumen" wrote:
    "Del" wrote:
    Very well done, but what are the odds any of those people actually read that. If they do what are the odds of them accepting that?

    I would say on a good day your odds of that happening are about 1-5%

    Agree.
    There will still be the intellectual 'bring back Tice', 'Childress is a wash', 'Start Tarvaris', and 'the play calling is predictable' threads permeating the site even though they have all been logically debunked.
    Thank God the coaches ignore the fans when it comes to coaching.

    I agree cogitans.
    If execution, turnovers, and penalties were under control the Vikings would be sitting a lot better.
    The team is not as bad as some would like to believe.
    In fact, it is closer to being a real team than it was during any of the Meathead years.
    I agree. I've got the feeling too that we are just a little bit away of getting it all to click.

    The last to games has really hit me hard in the stomach. I seriously can't believe that we have lost 4 in a row now.

    I never know what to post in here, I feel like 'we should have won, I have no idea what went wrong again'

    Thanks to PPE for the sig.

  7. #7
    Prophet's Avatar
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    Re: Play Calling Myth (through 10 games).

    "gdavikes84" wrote:
    Great post....but it only proves one thing to me....you guys really get off on telling people they are wrong. ;D
    It's not so much that, it just gets old when people make stuff up and try to pass it off as fact.
    We all do it sometimes, just expect to get called on it occasionally.
    That is the fun of this fanatical commitment.
    Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please. Mark Twain

  8. #8
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    Re: Play Calling Myth (through 10 games).

    I would say that show that we run/pass the ball very evenly. I still say it is predictable since we run on 1st and 2nd down and then pass short on 3rd down a majority of the time. I am not sure but we have to be close to dead last in 3rd down conversions.

    Thanks Josdin

  9. #9
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    Re: Play Calling Myth (through 10 games).

    Excellent post, Acumen. Very interesting.


    Personally, I don't think there is intelligent life on other planets. Why should other planets be any different from this one?

  10. #10
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    Re: Play Calling Myth (through 10 games).

    "Acumen" wrote:
    *snip*
    I didn't bother to read that, but I'm sure it just shows once again how predictable the Vikings offense has been.
    And I'm POSITIVE that it shows how much better off the Vikings would be with Tarvaris Jackson at the helm.

    Right?

    =Z=

    Thanks to Josdin for the awesome sig!

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