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  1. #1
    mountainviking's Avatar
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    PFF's Jahnke Value Model: MN Vikings

    https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...esota-vikings/

    I love what these guys do with their actual, on field performance rankings. Here is an interesting and sometimes surprising list of who out performed or under delivered on their price tags for last year.

    Undervalued

    1. Everson Griffen Defensive End

    Everson Griffen tops the list of undervalued Vikings in 2013. He finished 19th overall in our 4-3 DE grading and his 52 QB pressures was also ranked in the top 20. His work in the run game was above average as well. Not bad for a guy that cost the Vikings less than a million dollars last year. With Griffen and Jared Allen up for free agency, the Vikings might want to put more effort into bringing back the younger Griffen.
    Holy shit! 52 QB pressures!?? I didn't know he was even on the field that much!

    Nice stat on Fusco too...he ranked 5 out of all OGs in run blocking!

    On the Over-Valued list, Allen and Peterson aren't surprising...it's one of the quirks of the NFL, that most players don't make much on their first contract, but earn their 2nd contract, which often ends up higher than their production warrants as they get older, but doesn't change the fact that they earned some of it earlier in their career. The irony is that many get paid by their 2nd Team for what they did for their former Team, and that bit of business if often what separates the perennially good teams from the bad ones.

    But, OUCH on Greenway!! I knew he was a liability in coverage, but, wow! D'oh!

    Over the last 3 years no linebacker has allowed more yards in coverage. His run grade was also a career worst -11.0 in 2013 and overall he ranked 34th out of 35 OLBs. Greenway could be a cap casualty for the young and rebuilding Vikings.
    Control the line, control the time, and give your D a chance to shine!!

    "Balance it on end and thats the third side of the coin!!" -wookiefoot

  2. #2
    smegmavike is offline Coordinator
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    Quote Originally Posted by mountainviking View Post
    https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...esota-vikings/

    I love what these guys do with their actual, on field performance rankings. Here is an interesting and sometimes surprising list of who out performed or under delivered on their price tags for last year.



    Holy shit! 52 QB pressures!?? I didn't know he was even on the field that much!

    Nice stat on Fusco too...he ranked 5 out of all OGs in run blocking!

    On the Over-Valued list, Allen and Peterson aren't surprising...it's one of the quirks of the NFL, that most players don't make much on their first contract, but earn their 2nd contract, which often ends up higher than their production warrants as they get older, but doesn't change the fact that they earned some of it earlier in their career. The irony is that many get paid by their 2nd Team for what they did for their former Team, and that bit of business if often what separates the perennially good teams from the bad ones.

    But, OUCH on Greenway!! I knew he was a liability in coverage, but, wow! D'oh!
    I would be very surprised if Greenway doesn't take a pay cut.
    Fusco has always been a beast in run blocking, he has been a liability, at times, in pass blocking.
    Another thing to realize about Griffen is the fact he played out of position a lot last year. Start him at end and he will get better.
    He's worth a lot more money and his agent and he both know it.

  3. #3
    VikesfaninWis's Avatar
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    I know it's probably not going to happen, but what about the idea of bringing back Griffen and trying him out as a LB? I think it would be a great idea with his pass rush skills.

  4. #4
    purplepat is offline Hall of Famer
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    I too have seen these guys (PFF) ratings. But I see what I see with my own eyes (not that I'm a football coach or anything).

    Did you know that for the 2012 season, PFF said Erin Henderson was one of the best LBs in the league.

    Greenway may have been "off" last season, but no way was he nearly the worst in the league either. And I remember CG being in on a LOT of plays. Led Vikes AGAIN in tackles, did he not?

    I've seen plenty of reviews that suggest that Griffen is not all that good against the run, and few reports anywhere suggesting he is going to get any kind of big money deal. Yeah, he's young and has shown some production. But I've seen virtually zero articles talking any buzz about him, suggesting who's looking at him. I don't think EG is worth a big money deal yet. He's virtually never been a starter, couldn't beat out either of two guys. He's good, but I predict he won't get more than about $5M/yr
    SKOL VIKINGS!

  5. #5
    midgensa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by purplepat View Post
    I too have seen these guys (PFF) ratings. But I see what I see with my own eyes (not that I'm a football coach or anything).

    Did you know that for the 2012 season, PFF said Erin Henderson was one of the best LBs in the league.

    Greenway may have been "off" last season, but no way was he nearly the worst in the league either. And I remember CG being in on a LOT of plays. Led Vikes AGAIN in tackles, did he not?

    I've seen plenty of reviews that suggest that Griffen is not all that good against the run, and few reports anywhere suggesting he is going to get any kind of big money deal. Yeah, he's young and has shown some production. But I've seen virtually zero articles talking any buzz about him, suggesting who's looking at him. I don't think EG is worth a big money deal yet. He's virtually never been a starter, couldn't beat out either of two guys. He's good, but I predict he won't get more than about $5M/yr
    Pretty good points here.

    I think with the overwhelming success of sabremetrics in baseball and the proof being in the pudding with stats like WHIP, OPS and WAR ... football geeks felt there needed to be something different for football .... BUT

    It just does not work as well. The sample size is only 16 games and the game is not nearly as percentage driven as baseball is. That is not to say that these numbers should be completely ignored, but the amount of using PFF the last few years by people to try and "prove points" and act like it is gospel and they are just so smart is a little over the top.

  6. #6
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    PFF's Jahnke Value Model: MN Vikings

    In football the stat are still subjective. Only as good as the person making the judgements. Baseball is much different in this aspect.

  7. #7
    mountainviking's Avatar
    mountainviking is offline Team Alumni
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    I definitely don't' think PFF is the end all discussion measure of players, but it does take into account many things often overlooked and is a more specific breakdown of each players on field production, for one year. Something worth looking at and keeping an eye on, but not the full story for sure.

    Mainly, PFF is breaking down each player's production and assigning a value without concern for what the rest of the team did around them. Football is the ultimate team game, and if your team mates aren't helping you, they're probably hurting your production.

    Greenway might be an example of that. Our LB play around him the past few years has not been good. And, he not only led the Vikings in tackles, but was once again top ten (10) in the NFL with 134. He also notched 3 sacks, 3 INTs, and 7 passes defended. Those aren't terrible stats, and he would probably look a lot better with some better play around him.

    My thing with EG is that I don't want to go into the draft without a starting LDE. It pushes that need too far up. I just want to see us sign somebody who can take most of those reps if needed so we can add a rotational/developmental pass rusher in the mid rounds of the draft instead of being forced to pull one early, and push all of our other needs back. As suggested, EG does not have the stats nor reps to justify a fat contract, so I'm hoping, he can be resigned as a moderate cost with a bit of incentive to produce. I.e. way cheaper than a Michael Bennett or Johnson or Jared Allen.
    Control the line, control the time, and give your D a chance to shine!!

    "Balance it on end and thats the third side of the coin!!" -wookiefoot

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