Thread: The Optimal Run-Pass Ratio (Marrdro and I go at it again).

Game Theory and Great Running Backs

I wonder what they say the optimal pass/run ratio is...

This is entirely stat-driven, which at first sounds dumb, but eventually is awesome when you realize how in-depth he goes.

"V" wrote:

Game THeory and Great Running Backs

I wonder what they say the optimal pass/run ratio is...

This is entirely stat-driven, which at first sounds dumb, but eventually is awesome when you realize how in-deoth he goes.

Thanks for that link V ....Not only a good read but there is alot of good reads in the links to the right.....Now I have something to do tonight....LOL

Very cool analysis. Before reading the article, and for reasons I could not explain, I would have said that the run/pass ratio should not have changed much.

I have always marvelled at Bill Walsh's approach to scripting the first 10 or 25 offensive plays...this theory definitely supports Walsh's results, in the sense that whatever ratio was successful for him, he probably would have scripted the plays accordingly.

Here is the problemw ith comparing 2006 to 2007.
The teams we played were not the same teams. Hence, our gameplan is completely different.
I wager game planing for the black and blue AFC North vs. the Peace of cake AFC east would yeild a different offense. Teams aren't the same year to year. I believe if Tommie Harris and BU goes out with an injury, we will probally try to utilize more runs up the gut.

Good stuff, thanks for the read.

"kevoncox" wrote:

Here is the problemw ith comparing 2006 to 2007.
The teams we played were not the same teams. Hence, our gameplan is completely different.
I wager game planing for the black and blue AFC North vs. the Peace of cake AFC east would yeild a different offense. Teams aren't the same year to year. I believe if Tommie Harris and BU goes out with an injury, we will probally try to utilize more runs up the gut.

True, when looking at it from a personnell perspective. However, the article suggests that no matter who you play (or for that matter what your own strengths are) a 63:37 runass ratio is best.

In other words, the most effective offense is one that can run the ball effectively and pass efficiently enough to keep the defense honest. That is what I have been saying for more than a year now.

Of course, playoff success and Super Bowl winners totally derail my argument.

If you dig into that site, you will find the most intense sports graph I have ever seen.

Excellent read my friend.

Admittedly, this is a highly theoretical analysis. In reality play selection has much more to do with game situations than anything else.

About says it for me right there however,......

But the analysis does explain why teams with apparently vastly different passing and running abilities all tend to share similar run/pass proportions.

Wonder what his analysis would be for teams with a balanced offensive attack, say a 60% run/40% pass ratio which I thought I convinced you was the optimum ratio........ :

;D
;D
;D
;D

The optimum balance remains 37% pass and 63% run.

"Marrdro" wrote:

Excellent read my friend.

Admittedly, this is a highly theoretical analysis. In reality play selection has much more to do with game situations than anything else.

About says it for me right there however,......

But the analysis does explain why teams with apparently vastly different passing and running abilities all tend to share similar run/pass proportions.

Wonder what his analysis would be for teams with a balanced offensive attack, say a 60% run/40% pass ratio which I thought I convinced you was the optimum ratio........ :

;D
;D
;D
;D

The optimum balance remains 37% pass and 63% run.

60:40 is not a balanced attack! ARGH!

With rare exceptions, teams stick very closely to the NFL average 45% run proportion regardless of how their running game compares to their passing game.

The optimal balance he derives calls for a team to run it 18% more of the time. That is about 10 more rushing attempts per game.

"V" wrote:

"Marrdro" wrote:

Excellent read my friend.

Admittedly, this is a highly theoretical analysis. In reality play selection has much more to do with game situations than anything else.

About says it for me right there however,......

But the analysis does explain why teams with apparently vastly different passing and running abilities all tend to share similar run/pass proportions.

Wonder what his analysis would be for teams with a balanced offensive attack, say a 60% run/40% pass ratio which I thought I convinced you was the optimum ratio........ :

;D
;D
;D
;D

The optimum balance remains 37% pass and 63% run.

60:40 is not a balanced attack! ARGH!

With rare exceptions, teams stick very closely to the NFL average 45% run proportion regardless of how their running game compares to their passing game.

The optimal balance he derives calls for a team to run it 18% more of the time. That is about 10 more rushing attempts per game.

You knew I was gonna say that just as I knew you were gonna say ARGH.... ;D

Seriously though, I really am convinced that based on the following planning assumptions a 60/40 ratio is the optimum for the scheme we run......

a.
Blocking Scheme.
Mix of ZB and Man-to-Man with a heavy emphasis on the ZB side.
b.
Amount of TE's/FB carried on the roster show a clear indication of the teams desire to rely on the run.
c.
Mobile QB.
Although TJ isn't a Mike Vick, he does have some nice escapability.
d. The effort put in by our WR's to be very very good when it comes to down field blocking in support of the run.
e.
A two headed monster at RB.

I know most people think Pass first, when it comes to the WCO, but I don't think that is what this staff wants to do.
Heck, just the fact that this staffs first major scheme change was to start implementing the ZB scheme (run production) and the effort/cost they put into getting Hutch were clear indicators to me that they will rely on the run and suppliment that with a Dink/Dunk passing attack.

Yup, long story short, 60/40 = A Balanced attack for me.
;D

(I love this discussion by the way.
;D)

There is only ONE optimal run/pass ratio...the ratio that beats that day's opponent.
Anything else is artificial.
In-game adjustment of the ratio is what wins games...and if Chilly can master the in-game adjustment, we wont even care what the ratio ends up being.