Official Vikings vs. Bears postgame discussion

**singersp** · 12-01-2012, 07:49 AM

Originally Posted by NodakPaul

You evaluate that in practices, not games. And the "regression" on Ponder is exaggerated. He has good games and bad games - more good than bad this year, although I admit that it has been more bad than good in the last six weeks. What that tells me is that he is inconsistent right now, not that he has regressed. It is important to find out what was the trend and what was the illusion. I agree with Singer on the important of finishing out the season.

You don't bench your starting QB when your team is on the playoff bubble based on some "maybes" about a QB-turned-WR-turned-QB-again.

This part, which you agree with is why I say regression;

Originally Posted by NodakPaul

although I admit that it has been more bad than good in the last six weeks.

That is regression. It's worse now than the first 5 weeks. We should be seeing improvement & progress.

If the games were reversed in order and he was playing better the last 5 weeks instead of it being the first 5 weeks, fans would be claiming that he is improving & progressing & not claiming "he is inconsistent".

**singersp** · 12-01-2012, 07:55 AM

Originally Posted by NodakPaul

Obviously I don't have access to the 22 film, but I do have all of the games recorded, and when I go back and watch, I have a hard time finding open receivers from the ones that are in the frame.

Of those offensive plays that you watch, How many of them would you say are completely in frame that shows the entire field with all of our receivers in frame the entire play?

My guess is a very small percentage.

The one thing I see too much of though, which does frustrate me, is WR's & TE's that aren't even sent downfield on a passing route, but rather kept back to block on a designed bubble pass or a dump off pass.

**singersp** · 12-01-2012, 08:27 AM

Originally Posted by tastywaves

Very constructive post. I agree with a lot of it and I think many posters would as well.

And your right, many folks are still on the fence with Ponder and not necessarily for or against him at this point.

One big exception I do make to the post however, is that I don't think every player should necessarily be given the same treatment to form an opinion on his worthiness. Player evaluation is very subjective, both by coaches and by fans. In many cases, it is hard to completely qualify in words exactly what you like or dislike about a player, but if the guy doesn't pass the eye test to a particular individual, then he will lose faith in them. Many times the eye test is more accurate than any other analysis you try to make on a player. But again, it is very subjective.

IMO, sometimes it's subjective & other times not. I think sometimes a coach feels compelled to start one player over another based on how much said player was paid, where he was taken in the draft & how much experience he's had.

For instance, if Webb had out performed Ponder in Preseason, I believe Frazier still would have went with Ponder since he was taken in the 1st round with every intent for him to become the face of the franchise.

Perhaps Kapernick (sp) passed the eye test over Smith in SF before the start of the season, but Harbaugh went with the proven QB instead, even if he felt Kapernick was better.

On the other side of the coin, Seattle paid big bucks for Flynn with every intent he would be their future, but gave Wilson the nod instead.

Back in Minnesota, Wright might be passing the eye test moreso than Simpson, but Simpson is getting more play time because he was "the guy" brought in by Spielman to be our deep threat veteran WR.

Last year, at least through my eyes, Rudolph & Harvin both clearly passed the eye test yet they were not utilized nearly as much as they should have been.

**NodakPaul** · 12-01-2012, 05:01 PM

Originally Posted by singersp

This part, which you agree with is why I say regression;

That is regression. It's worse now than the first 5 weeks. We should be seeing improvement & progress.

If the games were reversed in order and he was playing better the last 5 weeks instead of it being the first 5 weeks, fans would be claiming that he is improving & progressing & not claiming "he is inconsistent".

I don't disagree, what you are actually referring to is regression to the mean. Yes, it is a form of regression, but it is not a negative thing as some are making it out to be, specifically in the post that I quoted. Ponder was over performing at the beginning of the year, and he underperformed a couple of games later in the season. Technically, anytime a QB has a game that is worse than their last game there is a regression. That doesn't mean that the player is regressing. For the record, Ponder's best game of his career came against the Lions, which was during this last 5 weeks.

If you look at Ponder's entire body of work, he is still trending up, i.e. he is improving. He is better now than he was last year. Some games are pretty good, some have been very bad. That is what I mean by inconsistent. Over these last five games, I believe that he needs to show more consistency if he wants a shot at being the starting QB next year. Inconsistency can be a QB killer, as we all have seen.

**NodakPaul** · 12-01-2012, 05:09 PM

Originally Posted by singersp

Of those offensive plays that you watch, How many of them would you say are completely in frame that shows the entire field with all of our receivers in frame the entire play?

My guess is a very small percentage.

The one thing I see too much of though, which does frustrate me, is WR's & TE's that aren't even sent downfield on a passing route, but rather kept back to block on a designed bubble pass or a dump off pass.

You are correct, very rarely can we see the entire field on TV. We do get better views online, but even then we will lose receivers off frame. But I find it hard to believe that whatever WR happens to be out of frame at the time is the one who happens to be open. Sometimes it probably is, but I think more often than not our WRs simply aren't getting open.

I share your frustration about nobody being sent deep. I don't know if that is because of Musgrave's offensive theory or because of the lack of speed of some of Ponder's deep passes, but I suspect it is both. We have seen him put some more zip on the ball lately, but when he does he tends to overthrow his receivers. Hopefully that is something he can address.

**singersp** · 12-01-2012, 07:06 PM

Originally Posted by NodakPaul

You are correct, very rarely can we see the entire field on TV. We do get better views online, but even then we will lose receivers off frame. But I find it hard to believe that whatever WR happens to be out of frame at the time is the one who happens to be open. Sometimes it probably is, but I think more often than not our WRs simply aren't getting open.

I share your frustration about nobody being sent deep. I don't know if that is because of Musgrave's offensive theory or because of the lack of speed of some of Ponder's deep passes, but I suspect it is both. We have seen him put some more zip on the ball lately, but when he does he tends to overthrow his receivers. Hopefully that is something he can address.

The thing that makes me think more are open then what we think there are was the Lions game. That was very telling. Before that game it was usually Harvin getting the ball with a few others being sprinkled in.

We thought that was because receivers weren't getting open so Ponder chose Harvin instead. However though, when Harvin wasn't playing (Lion's game) there happened to be receivers open all over the place. Not just 1 or 2, but 9 different targets were getting the ball. None where named Harvin.

I don't believe that by some miracle receivers first started getting open in that game, I believe on many other occasions, receivers were open & Ponder chose to go to Harvin or K-Rudd instead. Maybe it was because of trust, sure handedness or Ponder didn't want to throw into tighter coverage. For whatever reasons, he chose to locate Harvin & throw to him most of the time. A lot of those times being bubble passes.

My frustration isn't that receivers aren't being sent deep as much as it is they aren't being sent at all. Sometimes they never leave the LOS on passing plays. If they'd send more receivers out at different depths a lot more often than they do, rather than hold them back to block on bubble passes and dumps or runs, it might open up things more for Ponder.

**Purple Floyd** · 12-02-2012, 02:49 PM

Originally Posted by NodakPaul

Fair questions. I think that Webb excels primarily because he is so mobile. While he does have a hell of an arm, his accuracy, especially deep, is pretty bad. Certainly worse than Ponders.

No way is his accuracy worse than Ponders. I have had a chance to watch what they can do in the last 2 training camps and I can tell you that Webb has a better throw than Ponder. I am not convinced that he can read a defense or learn a playbook but his physical skills are superior without a question. All along I felt Ponder would have the mental advantage but I am not convinced any more.

If I was a DC prepping for Webb, I would go to a single safety look and spy the QB the whole time. Obviously that is a lot different than what we would normally see - so when Webb comes in relief it takes the defenses a little while to adjust.

Well what is the plan for Ponder? It certainly isn't challenging their secondary to have him in there.

And no, I am not happy with sub 70 passing games - in fact I believe I said that Ponder sucked during those games. But you are acting like that is every game, and not just 2 out of the 11 we have played. I am happier with 200+ yard passing games, which is what we see more often out of Ponder.

When you do it against the Packers even with AP having 200+ yards on the ground, then to me it's a problem.

In the end I agree with you. If the coaches decided that it is time to pull Ponder, I won't be upset. They have a bigger body of work than I do to evaluate both him and Webb and make that decision. Similarly, I am not going to get worked up by the coaching staff's decision to continue to start Ponder. Some people here are acting like Ponder can barely flick a booger without getting it picked off, and that is more than a bit ridiculous. I think that everything we have seen from Ponder so far this season - both the good and the bad - warrants keeping him in as starter... for now.

Well, to me that time has passed. What are we playing for?