Dungy went to Florida and put together a team that won the super bowl the year after he was replaced. He then went to the Colts and put together another super bowl winning team there. As PF said he knows how to put together winning teams and how to hire the right people to do it. I think he knows what this team needs in coaching based on the players we have playing for us. He is a smart guy. I always wished we had signed him instead of letting him go. We would probably have a Lombardi now if we had.
In Indy he inherited: Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Dominic Rhodes, Edgerrin James, Tarik Glenn, Jeff Saturday and Ryan Diem. The only offensive players of note he(and Polian I suppose) drafted were Joseph Addai and Dallas Clark.
Before winning the Super Bowl in 2006 Indy he drafted 11 offensive players in the over the course of 5 years. Joseph Addai and Dallas Clark were the only two selected before the 4th round. They were both 1st round picks. The most notable offensive players drafted besides those two guys are Jim Sorgi and Charlie Johnson. They drafted 29 defensive players in this time.
Of 29 draft darts at the board, plus a few free agents, 11 to sticking isn't all that impressive. And forget about Indy's drafts under Dungy/Polian after 2006. They were atrocious.
As far as his assistant coaches go, only Lovie Smith has had long term success running the Tampa-2. Tomlin only coached under Dungy for one season, so I'm reluctant to call him a Dungy guy. Why wouldn't he lure him to Indy with a promotion? What Tomlin has done since leaving Minnesota speaks even louder to that point. Rod Marinelli went on to coach a team to 0-16, Jim Caldwell was terrible and we all know about Frazier's shortcomings.
He coached one scheme his whole career, a scheme which a good QB can easily pick apart.
I have a lot of respect for Dungy as a man, but really not all that much as a coach. He's one dimensional. The best quarterback of all time can make a one dimensional coach look better than he really is.
But remember, great coordinators don't always make good head coaches. And i am not really sure how much say Dungy had in picking the players he coached. Was he pulling the trigger or was the GM doing that?
I didn't see much of him running the Vikings D. I was 6 years old when he left for Tampa. I don't doubt it was better than Frazier. He couldn't be worse. And his coordinators were better, again it's hard to imagine being worse.
I just don't want a guy with questionable draft/front office experience and only ever ran an obsolete scheme having influence over our coaching hire.
To be honest I don't really want any of the ex coaches turned TV commentator that keep getting thrown around as a candidate.
If you look at Gruden- He had a SB year with Tampa that happened the year Dungy left and after that he pretty much lost the team and was all but run out of Tampa. I have no faith in him building a team from the ground up and if you watch his QB challenge programs and the way he gushes over guys like Ponder, Gabbert, Tebow etc I have serious doubts about his ability to do any better with the position than what we are getting.
Cowher- He had a decent team while he was in Pittsburgh but could never get that team over the top until they got him a franchise QB. Those years when he was doing the slash experiment and stuff like that made him look a whole lot like what we have now and if we don't have a franchise QB for him I don't see him taking us to the next level either. If we do have a franchise QB I believe there are going to be younger, more energetic, cheaper alternatives that can do just as good as him.
Billick- He inherited the Baltimore defense and never put together a decent offense that matched his offensive coordinator credentials. The list of failed QB's under his watch look way too similar to the list we have accumulated since Culpepper blew out his knee and I see no reason to believe he has the tools to fix what is broken around here.
In the end what we need to look for is not who is the best offensive mind or the best defensive mind, but who is the best at assembling a competent group of offensive and defensive minded coaches and who can manage them as well as managing the talent on the team. That is far and away more valuable than what they can do as a coordinator IMHO.
Gruden's record as a HC is 95-81, a 54% winning percentage. He won barely half of his games. 5-4 in playoffs. Not sure how smart these some of these coach/analysts are. Herman Edwards' record was pretty lousy as well. Our new coach should come from the pro ranks (probably a coordinator) and have energy and imagination that he can infuse this team with. As PF said, he needs to be a good manager and assemble a good staff, two things Frazier has failed miserably doing.
Gruden is a winner and deserves another chance. He knows the game and how to get it done. I think it would be great to see Gruden here along with a young QB he can groom into his system.