Thread: How to win in the modern NFL

I was talking to a guy tonight, and it kind of hit me. I said to him the following: "teams are so equal in the modern NFL, that to win, all you have to do is reduce errors". I mean, if you think about it, the reason the Giants won is because they were very good at reducing their own errors. Eli threw zero INTs in the playoffs. All the other teams made errors: the Pats were overconfident and didn't scheme well, the Packers let Favre throw too much, the Cowboys didn't tackle well, etc.

My take on the modern NFL: not what you can add, but what you subtract: errors.

Am I wrong ?

Define "errors".

One could say that by playing error-free football, you're essentially playing perfect, which could also be interpreted as executing the plays exactly as they're designed (which IMO, is more than just "not making mistakes).

Was it on this site or on another one that I saw a thread (a well done thread by the way) that highlighted the turnover ratio to wins/losses.


Anyway, I believe it proved that most of the teams that win are the ones that control the ball and don't make turnovers (at least on paper).

"StillPurple" wrote:

I was talking to a guy tonight, and it kind of hit me. I said to him the following: "teams are so equal in the modern NFL, that to win, all you have to do is reduce errors". I mean, if you think about it, the reason the Giants won is because they were very good at reducing their own errors. Eli threw zero INTs in the playoffs. All the other teams made errors: the Pats were overconfident and didn't scheme well, the Packers let Favre throw too much, the Cowboys didn't tackle well, etc.

My take on the modern NFL: not what you can add, but what you subtract: errors.

Am I wrong ?

Why do you think turnovers happen? You can't say don't add talent because turn overs are a result of being out coached, out matched and underprepeared.

It's eas to say after the game, this team won because they had less turnovered but it's mostly likely because the other team was more talented or more cohesive as a team.

Re: How to win in the modern NFL

Score more points than your opponent any way you can.

I would say it comes down to taking advantage of your situations.
For example, every time a team is in the red zone, they NEED to score at least 3 points.
If you get a turnover with great field position, you need to get in position for a field goal.
If a team could have 100% red zone pct I'm sure they would do very well and go to the playoffs, regardless of team talent.
Also, it comes down to mistakes.
The fewer mistakes, the more you win.
The giants are an excellent example.
Eli made many mistakes, which is why we beat them.
He made very very few mistakes in the playoffs, which is why he won.


In todays day and age, winning a football game is so comlex, that one mistake, one slip up could cost you a game.
Countless games have turned on a 4th quarter interception, or fumble or missed field goal.

I've always held that the turnover ratio is most important...but with so much parity in the league, it's critical to have a defense that can step and stop the other team's offense. It seems there are so many games where it comes down to who has the ball last...and simply put, if your team is leading and you stop the other guy, you win.

I agree. John Madden said that the one stat that means the most is takeaway/turnover. Show me the top 10 teams in that stat, and I will show you which teams made the playoff that year.

Of course, that stat - one might argue - just reflects things like intensity, focus, and aggressiveness, so it might be the effect, and not the cause.

I also think that teams can't just steamroll you anymore. Let's face it, the 1990 Niners could make tons of mistakes and still win. And so could the 1972 Fish, and the 1976 Steelers. The talent disparity before the salary cap was so huge, that playing "error-free" was not that important.

Today: you win by "driving the bus" downfield and minimizing your "goofs". I still think that the 2007 Vikings would have gone far into the playoffs, had we minimized our mistakes, and I include COACHING mistakes there.

"StillPurple" wrote:

I agree. John Madden said that the one stat that means the most is takeaway/turnover. Show me the top 10 teams in that stat, and I will show you which teams made the playoff that year.

Of course, that stat - one might argue - just reflects things like intensity, focus, and aggressiveness, so it might be the effect, and not the cause.

I also think that teams can't just steamroll you anymore. Let's face it, the 1990 Niners could make tons of mistakes and still win. And so could the 1972 Fish, and the 1976 Steelers. The talent disparity before the salary cap was so huge, that playing "error-free" was not that important.

Today: you win by "driving the bus" downfield and minimizing your "goofs". I still think that the 2007 Vikings would have gone far into the playoffs, had we minimized our mistakes, and I include COACHING mistakes there.

I disagree, the cap wasn't what made it so competitive.
The reason it's so close and relies a lot on intangibles is because of Free Agency.
Scouting is still important, but not as important as it used to be.

It all comes down to having a QB that can manage the game, a game breaker player, and a good game plan from the coaching staff.

"UffDaVikes" wrote:

Re: How to win in the modern NFL

Score more points than your opponent any way you can.

I've always felt the team with the higher score up there, with.... the most points when time ex ex expires, goes double zero, and the ref here waves his red flag, would be
a... a.. donk, see there winner.
John Maddenism