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  1. #1
    2beersTommy's Avatar
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    Don't Worry About Taking a Quarterback in the First Round

    Don't Worry About Taking a Quarterback in the First Round - Daily Norseman

    These charts or graphs want to make my fucking head explode, but for those that like data like this..knock yourselves out haha

  2. #2
    MaxVike's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2beersTommy View Post
    Don't Worry About Taking a Quarterback in the First Round - Daily Norseman

    These charts or graphs want to make my fucking head explode, but for those that like data like this..knock yourselves out haha
    I made it about 2/3 of the way through before I had to go to the Summary. Dude is a very thorough writer, to be sure. These charts and this article seem to support Kevon and others' point that Vikes need to take a QB. They also provide data which helps to better understand that "reaching" for a QB is more like, "pick the guy you like as early as you think you need to." Doesn't say that's fool proof, rather indicates the statistical odds are more in your favor.

    Looks like Carr to me...

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  3. #3
    smegmavike is offline Coordinator
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    As an aside, there isn't a certainty that the three teams slated to pick a quarterback by pick eight will do so. No team has been functionally guaranteed by the media to select a quarterback like Indianapolis in 2012 or Carolina in 2011. Should we give all three teams (who for now are Houston, Jacksonville and Cleveland) and 80% chance to pick a quarterback, that still leaves a 50% chance that the third quarterback will still be available for the Vikings to pick.
    I still think one of the top three will be available at pick 8.

  4. #4
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    kevoncox is offline Jersey Retired
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    Quote Originally Posted by smegmavike View Post
    I still think one of the top three will be available at pick 8.
    I think So too.
    Either way we can't go wrong. If all three are gone, then we have top pick at a number of positions or we can trade with OL needy teams to pick up extra picks. Or we get to select a top Qb. Only way we go wrong is by selecting Carr in the 8th spot. I would cry myself to sleep.

  5. #5
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    I don't give a flying fuck how many pages of numbers the guy crunches because yester-years stats have zero bearing on what the individuals coming out this year or next will accomplish. So what if 40% of QBs taken in the first 13 picks worked out, it does absolutely nothing to help Carr handle pressure and improve his down field accuracy.

    Here is some simpler math that has much more bearing. Accounting for some overlapping, there are 5 spots on Defense: DT, DE, LB, CB & S; and, 5 or 6 spots on Offense: QB, RB-FB, WR, TE, OT, OG-C. So, by position, there are 11 best prospects.

    Picking 8 means that at worst, 7 of the best talent at their position guys will be gone, and the best prospect at 4 or more positions will still be available at our pick. IF 3 QBs go before us, we'll be looking at the best prospect at 6 other positions still there on the board. We have needs everywhere and most likely will get more quality starts out of the top, number 1 prospect at CB, LB, DT, DE, S, WR or OG than we will out of the 4th best QB.

    I would rather start Joe Webb for a whole year and pick another QB next year (supposedly a good crop coming...?) than force the pick just because stats or fans say so. IF we do spend that 8th on a QB and he is the next Ponder, how many years will he show just enough promise for us to give him another chance!? How many years will we not pick a better QB while we wait for that reach to stretch to potential...?

    What I am saying is: DON'T FORCE THE PICK!! IF a QB they like falls to 8, by all means grab him while doing a little dance on your way to the podium. IF not, find some value at another position or move back and take another look later.
    Control the line, control the time, and give your D a chance to shine!!

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  6. #6
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    I read the whole thing, and despite his trouble with putting sentences together (at times), I think he makes some very good points. IF the 4th QB to be taken deserves to be selected in the first round, taking that QB is worth the 8th pick, whoever he turns out to be. Zimmer has an intuitive talent for finding good value in defensive players in the later rounds, so using the high draft picks on a QB is not a disaster like many people think.

    To tell the truth, I like the optimism he has in Zimmer to put together a great defense next year whether we spend our 8th pick on defense or not. If we can get a QB that the consensus believes belongs in the first round, it is a good pick at #8. I also think his data leads us to trading down (if the QB situation does not have any 1st round talent) for more later round picks we can use for defense, though the author would disagree with me.

    Personally, after admitting I was wrong about picking up Freeman (if we do what I'm about to suggest), I think we should sign him to a 2 year deal and go all defense plus another WR. Freeman is at LEAST a adequate role player, and possibly a solid-high quality starter (using the terms from the chart he gave of the Vikings at present). I have a man-crush on Brandin Cooks from OSU, and the earliest he is slated to be taken in all the mocks I have seen is 23, so we could easily trade down to 20ish, get more 2nd-4th round picks for defense and lock up our offense.

    YES, I know that is betting on Freeman big time, but I would prefer Freeman over Carr any day. Imagine a 2011 Freeman with Jennings, Patterson, Cooks and Wright to throw to, and AP to hand off to...

    This whole thing goes out the window if Bridgewater, Manziel or Bortles is still on the board at #8 though.
    Men are moved by two levers only: fear and self interest.

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  7. #7
    purpleblood32 is offline Starter
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    freeman got a raw deal ... ,cassel..got screwed because of fraizer...griffin should have seen more playing time at de ..because after the season went in the shitter...griffin should have gotten a chance we all new allen was leaving ....freeman would thrive in a norv tunner offence...he has the strong arm that norv and everbody loves ...its his work habits that suck ...hey freeman this is where you want to be get ur head out of ur ass!!!

  8. #8
    purpleblood32 is offline Starter
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    draft will go like this not in this order : bortles,cloweny ,manz and teddy will be gone by the 8th pick ...shake out the rest ....i think watkins doesnt make it to 8th either...thats 5guy gone . .. we know wont be there...that leaves 6,7 and the 8th pick ..who is left on the big board ....mathews ot,mack olb,mosely mlb,darqueze dannard safety i think and carr qb...not in that orders..who do you think we take ...
    spielman gotta grow a set ha ha ..to pull the trigger on carr...if he passes on carr and he lights up the league and we still dont have a qb settled in ..he will never hear the end of it ..but drafts him and he flops omg ...never hear the end of it ..pushing up ponder and drafting him 12 hurt him big time ...if he took best available and drafted carr later well then ok..nothing wrong with that ..trade down and get an extra starter he can pat himself on the back...trade up if he thinks a qb cant miss he looks like a geniuos ..draft carr at 8 and turns into a ponder..... well he is a joke

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by purpleblood32 View Post
    draft will go like this not in this order : bortles,cloweny ,manz and teddy will be gone by the 8th pick ...shake out the rest ....i think watkins doesnt make it to 8th either...thats 5guy gone . .. we know wont be there...that leaves 6,7 and the 8th pick ..who is left on the big board ....mathews ot,mack olb,mosely mlb,darqueze dannard safety i think and carr qb...not in that orders..who do you think we take ...
    spielman gotta grow a set ha ha ..to pull the trigger on carr...if he passes on carr and he lights up the league and we still dont have a qb settled in ..he will never hear the end of it ..but drafts him and he flops omg ...never hear the end of it ..pushing up ponder and drafting him 12 hurt him big time ...if he took best available and drafted carr later well then ok..nothing wrong with that ..trade down and get an extra starter he can pat himself on the back...trade up if he thinks a qb cant miss he looks like a geniuos ..draft carr at 8 and turns into a ponder..... well he is a joke
    Dennard is a CB out of Mich St. and he will definitely be there when we pick. If you really want Dennard you should trade down (same with Carr) probably in the middle teens.

    There s only two things stopping you - fear and common sense!! The Truth you CAN"T HANDLE THE TRUTH!!!!!!!!

  10. #10
    smegmavike is offline Coordinator
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    Quote Originally Posted by purpleblood32 View Post
    draft will go like this not in this order : bortles,cloweny ,manz and teddy will be gone by the 8th pick ...shake out the rest ....i think watkins doesnt make it to 8th either...thats 5guy gone . .. we know wont be there...that leaves 6,7 and the 8th pick ..who is left on the big board ....mathews ot,mack olb,mosely mlb,darqueze dannard safety i think and carr qb...not in that orders..who do you think we take ...
    spielman gotta grow a set ha ha ..to pull the trigger on carr...if he passes on carr and he lights up the league and we still dont have a qb settled in ..he will never hear the end of it ..but drafts him and he flops omg ...never hear the end of it ..pushing up ponder and drafting him 12 hurt him big time ...if he took best available and drafted carr later well then ok..nothing wrong with that ..trade down and get an extra starter he can pat himself on the back...trade up if he thinks a qb cant miss he looks like a geniuos ..draft carr at 8 and turns into a ponder..... well he is a joke
    If Mack is there, you have to take him. You don't trade down. If he is off the board, along with the top 3 QB's, I would attempt to trade down for more picks and take Dannard. I don't see any QB beyond the top three that is worthy of moving up into the end of the first round to get. They simply aren't first round QB's.

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