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  1. #1
    robertsmith's Avatar
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    amazing culpepper break down on fins forum

    this is on the fins fan board justifing their trade for culpepper



    Culpepper Manifesto


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    He's ours. A lot of people on this board are very strongly anti-Culpepper. The following should allay your concerns and help get you excited about our new QB.
    Culpepper has been the most productive QB in NFL history. When you account for his rushing numbers, his production has been absolutely phenomenal. Over his career, Culpepper has 164 total TDs in 81 games, an average of more than 2 TDs per game. Compare that to the greatest QBs (production-wise) in NFL history:

    Marino (429 in 242 games, an average of 1.77)
    Favre (408 in 225 games, an average of 1.81)
    PManning (253 in 128 games, an average of 1.97)
    KWarner (121 in 73 games, an average of 1.65)

    In short, Culpepper is the most prolific TD scoring QB on a per game basis in NFL history.

    Next, look at total yards (rushing and passing). Culpepper has 22,639 total yards in 81 games, an average of 279.5 yards per game. Compare that to the greatest QBs (production-wise) in NFL history:

    Marino (61448 in 242 games, an average of 254 yards per game)
    Favre (55360 in 225 games, an average of 246 yards per game)
    PManning (33854 in 128 games, an average of 264.5 yards per game)
    KWarner (19474 in 73 games, an average of 266.7 yards per game)

    So Culpepper is also the most productive QB in terms of yards from scrimmage in NFL history on a per game basis.

    Then compare his INTs to the aforementioned guys. Culpepper has 86 in 81 games, an average of 1.06 per game.

    Marino (1.04 per game)
    Favre (1.13 per game)
    PManning (1.015 per game)
    KWarner (1.07 per game)

    So Daunte is the most productive QB (on a per game basis) in NFL history in terms of both yards and TDs. His interception rate is comparable to or better than any of the guys that are even close (and they're not that close).
    His completion percentage of 64.4 is the second-best in NFL history. And that is not in a dink-and-dunk West Coast offense. It's not terribly surprising, as he holds the single season NCAA record for completion percentage at 73.4%. That is with a vertical passing game. In 2004 he completed an incredible 17 of 34 passes thrown more than 31 yards from scrimmage in the air. And no, it was not because of jump balls to Moss -- Moss caught only 3 of them.
    Physically, he has a lot more size and speed than any QB should be allowed to have. He's the size of a DE and runs like a fullback. His rushing numbers are second only to Michael Vick among QBs.
    Below are my responses to the criticisms I hear from the Culpepper haters:

    The Knee

    It is legitimate to be concerned about the knee, but this is an area we all need to defer to the doctors on. They are saying he is well ahead of schedule and will play next year. The trade hinges on his passing a physical, so if it goes through, that means the Fins docs say he's OK. The decision on a QB of the future should not hinge on whether he'll be at full strength at the beginning of this year (this goes for Brees too). I can't think of a single QB whose career was ended or derailed by a kneee injury. I've asked in several threads if anyone could think of a single on and nobody came forward with any. In recent years, there has been virtually 100% recovery from knee injuries, including RBs, WRs and CBs who are much more dependent on their speed and cutting ability than a QB (even a mobile one) is. For those positions, the difference between 4.4 speed and 4.6 speed may be difference between star and scrub. Any loss int he ability to plant and cut on a dime fundamentally changes who that player is. Nonetheless, guys like EJames, Jamal Lewis, McGahee, etc. have all come back as good as new. For a QB, even a mobile one, it is much less important. Even if Culpepper goes from a 4.7 40 guy to 4.8 or 4.9, it won't make a huge difference. When RBs are able to come back from hideous knee injuries, it seems like a stretch to say that Culpepper can't or won't.

    There is a long list of QBs who have played at a HOF level for years with "bad knees" – Marino, Namath, Elway, Stabler, etc.

    The Fumbles

    Yes, he does fumble a lot. However, even if you treat the fumbles as interceptions, his numbers are still great. A rushing attempt is akin to a completed pass, albeit usually a short one. They usually come on passing downs and are positive yardage plays. If you look at combined rushing and passing numbers and treat each rushing attempt as a pass attempt and a completion, each rushing TD as a passing TD, and each fumble as an interception, Culpepper's adjusted rating comes out to 92.6, which is a little below Payton Manning's adjusted career rating of 94.3, but is above Carson Palmer (90.9). Gus's 2005 adjusted rating is 69.9. Marino's career adjusted rating is 86.7.
    People keep citing to the total fumbles numbers, as opposed to fumbles lost, which is really the relevant number. He's lost an average of about 5 fumbles per season, which is about 2-3 more than most other QBs. BTW, Gus fumbled 13 times last year and lost 4, but I have never heard anyone on this board bitching about that particular aspect of his game. Also, part of the reason Culpepper fumbles is that he runs with the ball, i.e., he actually gets tackled while holding the ball 100+ times per year. If the average RB had those carries instead of Culpepper, he'd fumble a few times too (Ronnie Brown had 4 fumbles in 239 touches and Ricky has 35 fumbles in approximately 2000 touches in his career).

    The Boat

    Give me a break. He is charged with getting a lap dance and touching the dancer's tushy. Are you such prudes that you find that to be outrageous conduct? Do you think no other NFL players get lap dances? Hell, Clinton Portis had a stripper pole and a bevy of strippers in his house. Do you really think the Fins players would be hesitant to follow his lead because he allegedly touched a stripper's tushy?

    The Moss

    Culpepper's great numbers are not because of Randy Moss -- any more than Montana/Young were products of Rice. Or any more than Manning is a product of Harrison. Almost every great QB has had some great WRs. In 2004, Mossed missed 3 games and was just a decoy in 2 others. In those 5 games, Culpepper completed 113 of 166 passes (68%) for 1179 yards, 9 TDs and 3 INTs, which comes out to a QB rating of 99. In other games, he was hurt and simply didn't do much. For that season, if you exclude passes thrown to Moss, he completed 330 of 463 passes (71.3%), for 3950 yards and 26 TDs. Even if you assume that none of his INTs were on passes thrown to Moss, which is doubtful, his QB rating excluding Moss was 105.9. Moreover, Moss clearly didn't make Kerry Collins into the Pro Bowler this year, even though he was opposite other quality WRs.

    The 2005 INTs

    Culpepper had a very bad start to 2005. He had 8 picks in the first 2 games, but had 6 TDs and 4 INTs in the 4 games after that. He was playing for a new OC, with a new set of receivers and an OL that had lost its anchor, Pro Bowl center Matt Birk. The OL was really struggling -- he was sacked 31 times in just over 6 games. You can't disregard his career numbers based on 2 bad games at the start of the season. Even the best QBs will occasionally have a 3-4 INT game.

    The Playoffs

    True, Minnesota has not been a great team since he's been there, but they have consistently had one of the 5-6 worst defenses in the NFL. From 2000-04, the Vikes never had a defense that was better than 25th in the NFL. Even Marino had better defenses in the late 80s and early 90s. With a few exceptions, Minny had unremarkable running games during that time (especially if you exclude Culpepper's rushing numbers). Still, the Vikes were 39-41 during that time period, which is comparable to Marino's record from 1986-89 when the Fins defenses were bad (30-33). We all know that even a great QB cannot win with a bad defense.
    When he's been in the playoffs, he's 2-2. His career playoff numbers are pretty respectable -- 73/134, 980 yds, 8 TDs and 5 INTs (82.3 rating). He had one terrible game against the Giants in 2001, a mediocre one against the Eagles in 2004, and two very good ones against the Saints in '01 and the Packers in '04 (total of 36/60, 618 yds, 7 TDs, 0 INTs).

    The Money

    Daunte is due to make $2 million this year, less than half of what Gus is due to be paid. Brees will undoubtedly cost several times that amount. The 3 years after this one, Culpepper is due to make around $6 million per year, which isn't much for an upper echelon QB. Brees would have cost more. Some are offended that he reportedly asked for more money, but it isn't clear that he did. His agent did, and then got fired for it. The Vikes owner had publicly said that he would re-evaluate Daunte's contract after this past season, so it wouldn't have been unusual for Daunte to expect him to do that.
    The Backups

    Some people argue that the fact that his backups have had success in Minny means he is a product of the system. When they make this argument, they usually selectively ignore the numbers of his backups who did not play well. Even so, the reality is that a lot of QBs will do well in a good offensive system, with a decent OL and some talent around him. The Viking backups success is hardly unique. Take a look at the QB ratings of the following backups, with the starter in parentheses:

    Steve Young (Montana) 108.9
    Steve Bono (Montana) 88.5
    Jeff Kemp (Montana) 85.7
    Scott Mitchell (Marino) 91.4
    Craig Erickson (Marino) 86.3
    Elvis Grbac (Young) 87.9
    Jeff Garcia (Young) 89.9
    Frank Reich (Kelly) 102.3
    Jim Sorgi (Manning) 99.1
    Matt Cassel (Brady) 89.4
    Marc Bulger (Warner) 101.5
    Trent Green (Warner) 101.8
    Bernie Kosar (Aikman) 92.7
    Rodney Peete (Aikman) 102.5
    Jason Garrett (Aikman) 83.3
    Billy Volek (McNair) 87.4

    In addition to those, you have guys like Brooks, Brunell and Hasselbeck who looked good as backups to Favre and drew a lot in trades/FA. Same for Feeley behind McNabb.

    None of this means that Culpepper (or any of the QBs listed in parentheses above) are not great QBs. They are. Culpepper has put up incredible numbers and is a proven commodity.

    The Vikes improvement in the 2nd half of the season last year was not because Brad Johnson was better. It was because the OL, which was recovering from the loss of Matt Birk and a rookie at G, started to gel as the season went on. The OL gave up 29 sacks in the first 6 games. They gave up only 23 in the next 10 games. The other reason was that the defense improved dramatically in the second half of the season. In the first 7 games, the defense gave up 193 points, which is approximately 28 per game. In the next 9, they gave up 151 points, which comes out to an average of less than 17 per game. Gee, do you think a difference of 11 ppg allowed might make a difference in wins and losses?

    Intelligence

    First, and not that it is necessarily a true measure of intelligence, but Culpepper scored a 21 on the Wonderlic. This is better than Marino (14), McNabb (16), McNair (15), and a point less than Brett Favre (22). Obviously, the Wonderlic is not a foolproof indicator of the ability to understand NFL defenses.

    What are good indicators of the ability to make decisions and read defenses is performance on 3rd downs, when blitzed, and in the red zone. On 3rd downs, NFL teams basically know you are passing and the defenses are at their most creative to stop the pass. Performance on blitzes shows the QBs ability to make decisions under pressure and find the open man in a very short time. Performance in the red zone shows what he can do with a short field in critical situations.

    In 2004, Culpepper's performance on 3rd down and blitzes was phenomenal. On 3rd downs, he completed 93 of 134 (69.4%), for 1391 yards, 19 TDs and 3 INTs, which comes out to an absurd QB rating of 133.7. That year, on blitzes, he completed 101 of 159 (63.5%), for 1217, 15 TDs and 1 INT, which is a 115.7 rating. In the red zone, he completed 54 of 88 for 352 yards, 26 TDs and 2 INTs, for a rating of 158.2 (the maximum). These types of numbers simply are not possible if you can't read defenses and make good decisions. Do people think that every defense he faced was pure vanilla?

    Yes, last year he struggled, especially in those first 2 games. But his 2003 numbers in these categories are comparable to his 2004 numbers.

    3rd down -- 79/121, 1054, 12, 3 (Rating: 115.5)
    Blitz -- 60/103, 785, 9, 4 (Rating: 95.3)
    Red Zone -- 23/51, 147, 14, 2 (Rating: 126.8 )

    For comparison sake, Gus's numbers in these categories last year are:

    3rd down -- 63/152, 813, 5, 5 (Rating: 56.2)
    Blitz -- 73/162, 866, 5, 4 (Rating: 61.9)
    Red Zone -- 28/65, 189, 12, 3 (Rating: 70.8)

    Remember, these are in essentially the same Linehan offense (which we say we are keeping).

    "Game Management"

    A lot of people talk about certain QBs being good game managers. I hear that a lot about Brees and some Gusketeers also like to claim that he was a good game manager. I think that, in most cases, that is just someone's way of pumping up a guy they like on the basis of some intangible that cannot be verified or disproven. Let's face it, with the exception of occasional audibles, the coaches call the plays. Most of what people refer to as game management is really a reflection of the plays called by the coaches, not anything the QB has done.

    That said, I think there is some QB "game management" in the way the guy plays on 3rd and 4th down. "Managing the game" basically boils down to how well the QB keeps the chains moving, which basically boils down to converting 3rd and 4th downs. Avoiding turnovers is another aspect of game management.

    I was only able to find stats for this for the past 2 seasons. Culpepper's conversion rate on 3rd and 4th downs has been excellent. Over the last 2 years, he has converted 98/196 (50%). This is the same as Payton Manning (119 of 238), but better than Brees (121/264 – 45.8%) and Brady (122/270 – 45.1%). Gus supporters claim he was a good game manager last year, but he converted only 50/160 third and 4th downs last year, which comes out to 31.25%. These numbers do not include plays in which the QB ran for a 1st down on 3rd or 4th down.

    The Draft Pick

    Giving up a 2nd rounder is a small price to pay (it's not clear to me now whether it is 2006 or 2007). Either way, there will be no one in the draft this year or next who is a proven commodity with Culpepper's talent level. Certainly no one in the 2nd round. The price for high draft pick QBs is around $50 million over 6 years, with more than $20 million of that guaranteed. Culpepper's contract is much more cap friendly. Clearly, the Fins decided that Brees' price tag was simply too high.

    Now stop crying about getting a 29-year old, physically dominant QB who has put up numbers over his 7 year career that compare favorably to the best who have ever played the position.

  2. #2
    robertsmith's Avatar
    robertsmith is offline Training Camp
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    Re: amazing culpepper break down on fins forum

    no responses

    facts hurt dont they

  3. #3
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    Re: amazing culpepper break down on fins forum

    Good for them...one thing they did leave out is that he is very inconsistent! one game he can be amazing and the next not! he's choked in 2 of the 3 biggest games of his life...(@nyg and @phi)...he can put up numbers, but what was his record?? thats all that matters!

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    Re: amazing culpepper break down on fins forum

    Nick Saban for President!

  5. #5
    SWAYZE74's Avatar
    SWAYZE74 is offline Starter
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    Re: amazing culpepper break down on fins forum

    too bad there isnt some kinda stat for leadership...they might wanna look at that one...on a side note...i think its funny how daunte wont have to learn a new offense...being reunited with linehan and all...dont work too hard daute...ya might sprain your brain...

    peace...
    peace...

  6. #6
    Del Rio Guest

    Re: amazing culpepper break down on fins forum

    Hahahaha

    Yeah facts hurt, too bad over half of that is assumption and fallacy as opposed to facts.

    Especially regarding his paragraph on Randy Moss.


    No doubt they got a good deal, but this is really just more of the same bullshit.

    He's basing almost everything off of a QB rating which is widely debated as a good guage because of inconsistencies in the system.

    This line : "Yes, he does fumble a lot. However, even if you treat the fumbles as interceptions, his numbers are still great"

    Actually made me laugh out loud.

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    Re: amazing culpepper break down on fins forum

    "SWAYZE74" wrote:
    too bad there isnt some kinda stat for leadership...they might wanna look at that one...on a side note...i think its funny how daunte wont have to learn a new offense...being reunited with linehan and all...dont work too hard daute...ya might sprain your brain...

    peace...
    Linehan is in St Louis now

  8. #8
    Prophet Guest

    Re: amazing culpepper break down on fins forum

    Facts hurt? There is nothing new in that article that hasn't been gone over hundreds of times in these forums. These stats and summaries have been posted both objectively and subjectively countless times right here at PP.O.

    Culpepper's legacy will be determined by what he does with the rest of his career. He could either thrive and go on to become a HOFer or dry up and fade away. I wouldn't be surprised either way.

  9. #9
    Del Rio Guest

    Re: amazing culpepper break down on fins forum

    Does it add perspective to understand that the "average" rating was designed, according to circa 1970 standards, to be precisely 66.7

    Does it help to know that this is technically only meant to be a passing-efficiency statistic, not really a quarterback rating? It doesn't try to account for other useful quarterbacking activities, like running -- or winning

    To learn that Denver's Brian Griese was the NFL's top passer last season, it helps if you didn't leave college early for the draft. Here's the league's official rating formula that made Griese number one:




    As you can see, Griese's rating was precisely 102.9. So of course he was the top quarterback. 102.9! The guy's on fire! In fact, give the boy some ibuprofen, it looks like he's running a fever

    What the hell is the meaning of 102.9? Most sports numbers tell a story. Twelve under par. A first round knockout. A $50,000 fine for calling David Stern a wiener. Batting .300 means you got three hits every ten at bats. But 102.9? Isn't that the FM station that plays Steely Dan all day? Why do we measure the most important player on the football field using a quadratic equation so puzzling it's actually used as the opening problem in the math textbook College Algebra (8th Edition, Addison Wesley, 2000)?

    "[size=18px]I pay attention to my rating on third down and in the red zone," says Trent Dilfer, who despite his wobbly 76.6 rating last season quarterbacked the Ravens to a Super Bowl victory. "Otherwise, it's most useful for fantasy football people who are more concerned with numbers than good old-fashioned winning[/size]

    I could post more but that last paragraph pretty much sums up a QB rating. It also pretty much sums up over half of the guys arguments.

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    Re: amazing culpepper break down on fins forum

    "Del Rio" wrote:
    I could post more but that last paragraph pretty much sums up a QB rating. It also pretty much sums up over half of the guys arguments.
    That said, I think there is some QB "game management" in the way the guy plays on 3rd and 4th down. "Managing the game" basically boils down to how well the QB keeps the chains moving, which basically boils down to converting 3rd and 4th downs. Avoiding turnovers is another aspect of game management.

    I was only able to find stats for this for the past 2 seasons. Culpepper's conversion rate on 3rd and 4th downs has been excellent. Over the last 2 years, he has converted 98/196 (50%). This is the same as Payton Manning (119 of 238), but better than Brees (121/264 – 45.8%) and Brady (122/270 – 45.1%). Gus supporters claim he was a good game manager last year, but he converted only 50/160 third and 4th downs last year, which comes out to 31.25%. These numbers do not include plays in which the QB ran for a 1st down on 3rd or 4th down.

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