Page 3 of 4 FirstFirst 1234 LastLast
Results 21 to 30 of 31

Thread: 4th and short.

  1. #21
    snowinapril's Avatar
    snowinapril is offline Jersey Retired
    Join Date
    Dec 1969
    Posts
    13,404

    Re: 4th and short.

    V-Unit wrote:
    snowinapril wrote:
    OK, 4th and short on the goal line........

    Yes, we can run the ball but...... I don't think we are a power running team that is going to get 1.5 yards. We don't move the line like a power running team would. Zone blocking works well with AP, but I think it turns the linemen into mush when it comes power situations.

    I would have preferred the pass on that play. Oh well!
    Fair.

    I consider the facts that:

    We had already failed at 4th and short via passing
    Favre had already thrown two goalline INTs
    DD was running very well

    and think that a run was the preferred option.

    -V-
    On that run, Load and Sasser didn't get any push on the end of the line. The lead back, was heading out right to lead around the end, AD decided that he was going to run it up the hole that was filled by Dansby. That was on AD. He went up the middle without a lead blocker. The D wasn't spread out at all to be heading up the hole without the lead back. The fact that the guy that Sasser and Load were to take care of got a bit of up field penetration may have been part of AD's decision process.

    Still would have like to see a pass, would have been nice to have Rice for a jump ball if necessary.

  2. #22
    Traveling_Vike is offline Coordinator
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Posts
    880

    Re: 4th and short.

    I realize that the coaching staff of the Vikings likely does not read our little forum here, but I have a suggestion for a goal-line play, and I'd like to hear comments from you guys. This concept does depend on one thing which is a big unknown at this point, so it may not even be possible, but if Loadholt or a potential replacement RT can actually catch the ball, it could become quite productive.

    For those of you who were watching football back in the eighties and early nineties, you may remember a play the Chiefs used to run with great success, and no one ever figured out how to defend it properly because it was so unexpected. It's a Tackle eligible pass. I don't know the "official" name of it, but it used to work almost every time they ran it.

    The right Tackle may report as an eligible receiver if there is no WR or TE lining up on the line on his side. Thus, he chips his man and releases, flaring off to the right to catch a lob over the head of his guy.

    In addition, you need someone else in the backfield to pick him up, probably a RB but maybe a FB if we can find one who is reliable enough in that setup. I think Jimmy K would be ideal for this if we move him back to FB like we used to on occasion.

    On the left side, you put two WRs both running patterns across the middle, just in case the Tackle does get covered or stumbles or something. They can also block DBs on the right, if they get there. Also, one WR in motion from left to right, never getting to the line before the snap, who can occupy a LB or DB who would otherwise be free to go after the Tackle.

    It's a fast play, so the block only needs to hold long enough for the QB to lob the ball over the defender's head. The other side of it is, who's going to cover someone the size of Loadholt, for example, rumbling out there. Usually it will look like he is heading to block someone else after losing his man. No one ever expects him to turn and catch the ball.

    Of course, if he can't catch, it's a moot point, but maybe we could give it a try.

    My Meeple is purple. What color is yours?

  3. #23
    Infidel is offline Star Spokesman
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Posts
    1,947

    Re: 4th and short.

    It's a fast play, so the block only needs to hold long enough for the QB to lob the ball over the defender's head.
    This could work.

    They have a lot of practice holding their blocks just about that long.
    It's what you learn after you know it all that counts.
    --John Wooden

  4. #24
    jmcdon00's Avatar
    jmcdon00 is offline Jersey Retired Snake Champion, Moto Trial Fest 2: Mountain Pack Champion, LL City Truck 2 Champion, Arithmetic sequence Champion, Troops Tower Defense Champion
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Posts
    8,275

    Re: 4th and short.

    There's just one problem with basing future chances on past performance when you have a choice of two or more options. They are based on the assumption that you'll make the same choices in the same proportion in the future.
    Not sure I follow
    I'm only trying to compare the results of a single decision. Whether to go for it on 4th and short near the 25 or attempt a field goal.
    Choice 1: go for field goal
    Option 2: Go for the first down.(my analysis focuses on this option)
    Yes there are a million variables in every situation, home or away, 1st qtr or 4th etc. I am only looking at down and distances that match the situation, while ignoring other factors.

    Taking your summary from your post:



    TD: 32 * 7 =224
    FG: 17 * 3 =51
    Turnover: 5 * 0= 0
    Opponent TD: 2 * -7 = -14


    I have a couple of questions. First, is this the actual total of all attempts? Or are the 2 turnovers for score part of the five total turnovers? I'm going to assume that they are the result of either the five turnovers, or a return on a blocked FG.

    This is the total of all 56 attempts.
    TD are the drives that end with a viking TD.
    FG are the drives that end with a successful vikings FG
    TO are the drives that resulted in no points, weather from a missed field goal, interception, fumble, failed 4th down, excluding turnovers that resulted in point for the apponent.
    Apponent TD are turnovers returned for TD, 1 was a blocked kick the other a int.

    Anyway pretty pointless numbers game, there really is no right or wrong answer.

  5. #25
    Holzberg is offline Rookie
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Posts
    57

    Re: 4th and short.

    They should have run a pass play on second down at the end of the Dolphins game when they were at the goal line. If anything, it would have loosened the defense up as they don't know whether to expect run or pass on 3rd and 4th down.

  6. #26
    VikingMike's Avatar
    VikingMike is offline Jersey Retired
    Join Date
    Dec 1969
    Posts
    5,820

    Re: 4th and short.

    snowinapril wrote:
    V-Unit wrote:
    snowinapril wrote:
    OK, 4th and short on the goal line........

    Yes, we can run the ball but...... I don't think we are a power running team that is going to get 1.5 yards. We don't move the line like a power running team would. Zone blocking works well with AP, but I think it turns the linemen into mush when it comes power situations.

    I would have preferred the pass on that play. Oh well!
    Fair.

    I consider the facts that:

    We had already failed at 4th and short via passing
    Favre had already thrown two goalline INTs
    DD was running very well

    and think that a run was the preferred option.

    -V-
    On that run, Load and Sasser didn't get any push on the end of the line. The lead back, was heading out right to lead around the end, AD decided that he was going to run it up the hole that was filled by Dansby. That was on AD. He went up the middle without a lead blocker. The D wasn't spread out at all to be heading up the hole without the lead back. The fact that the guy that Sasser and Load were to take care of got a bit of up field penetration may have been part of AD's decision process.

    Still would have like to see a pass, would have been nice to have Rice for a jump ball if necessary.

    I agree with the run, but I do NOT like the stacked line toe-to-toe. I prefer a spread O where the D thinks we "might" just pass. I understand Chilly wants to ram it down their throat, but IMO I don't like giving safeties and a CB a chance to fill the hole...which in this case happened. AD would have made it if Davis wasn't there.
    Any man who afflicts the human race with ideas must be prepared to see them misunderstood. - H.L. Mencken

    Come from the land of the ice and snow...

  7. #27
    Prophet's Avatar
    Prophet is offline Jersey Retired
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Posts
    17,388

    Re: 4th and short.

    jmcdon00 wrote:
    V-Unit wrote:
    So, out of the 13 fourth down situations, we converted 8 of them.
    - 61.5%

    4th and 2 or less occured 10 times last year and we converted 7 of them.
    - 70%

    Ryan Longwell attempted 9 FGs at the 40-49 range last year and converted 8 of them.
    - 88.9%

    So, each individual needs to ask himself: Is an extra 4 points worth the 19% increase in risk.

    Obviously, game situation will play a factor in your decision. However, game result should not, not if you really want to be fair to our coaches.

    -V-
    19% extra risk doesn't equal 4 points. The 19% risk equals a first down, you would then have to calculate the odds they score a TD/fg/get nothing with a first down from inside the 25.

    In Prophets spirit of mind numbingly pointless statistical analysis, and ramblings, I'll attempt to do that.

    56 times the vikings had a first down on the opponents 10-25yard line. The results of those opportunities are

    TD: 32 * 7 =224
    FG: 17 * 3 =51
    Turnover: 5 * 0= 0
    Opponent TD: 2 * -7 = -14

    Total points = 261/56=4.66 points per opportunity.

    So on average a first down between the opponents 10-25 yard line is worth 4.66 points. Combine this with Prophet and V's figure that we get the first down 70% of the time from that situation and you get 4.66*.7=3.2624 points on average when the vikings go for it on 4th down and 2 or less around the opponents 25.

    Compare this to the 3 * 89%(chance of making it) = 2.67 points on average for kicking a field goal.

    According to my math I stand corrected and Childress made the correct calculation in deciding to for it in that position.

    See data below.



    1-10-CLE 19 (3:07) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 29-C.Taylor to CLV 14 for 5 yards (96-D.Bowens).
    (:06) 8-R.Longwell 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.

    1-10-CLE 23 (12:56) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 29-C.Taylor to CLV 21 for 2 yards (26-A.Elam).
    2-1-CLE 1 (11:17) 28-A.Peterson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN

    1-10-CLE 20 (11:31) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete deep left to 18-S.Rice. PENALTY on CLV-22-B.McDonald, Defensive Pass Interference, 16 yards, enforced at CLV 20 - No Play.
    (10:10) 28-A.Peterson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-CLE 13 (2:31) 29-C.Taylor left guard to CLV 15 for -2 yards (50-E.Barton).
    3-3-CLE 6 (1:12) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 12-P.Harvin for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-CLE 12 (8:55) 28-A.Peterson right guard to CLV 10 for 2 yards (71-A.Rubin, 96-D.Bowens).
    4-18-CLE 20 (6:59) 8-R.Longwell 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.

    1-10-DET 15 (2:00) 4-B.Favre pass short right to 18-S.Rice to DET 2 for 13 yards (32-A.Henry; 24-K.Pearson).
    2-1-DET 1 (1:09) 4-B.Favre pass short right to 81-V.Shiancoe for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.


    1-10-DET 13 (10:02) 29-C.Taylor right tackle to DET 14 for -1 yards (40-M.Manuel). FUMBLES (40-M.Manuel), and recovers at DET 13. 29-C.Taylor to DET 13 for no gain (90-G.Jackson).

    4-5-DET 8 (8:42) 8-R.Longwell 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.


    1-10-DET 16 (7:21) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 87-B.Berrian to DET 11 for 5 yards (26-L.Delmas; 31-P.Buchanon).
    1-3-DET 3 (6:02) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 12-P.Harvin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-SF 23 (14:05) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short middle to 87-B.Berrian.
    4-9-SF 22 (13:13) 8-R.Longwell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.


    1-10-SF 16 (:19) 4-B.Favre pass short right to 38-N.Tahi to SF 12 for 4 yards (99-M.Lawson, 51-T.Spikes). PENALTY on MIN-64-A.Herrera, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 16 - No Play.
    2-20-SF 26 (:06) 8-R.Longwell 44 yard field goal is BLOCKED (91-R.McDonald), Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe, RECOVERED by SF-22-N.Clements at SF 41. 22-N.Clements for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-GB 19 (6:05) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 87-B.Berrian pushed ob at GB 16 for 3 yards (21-C.Woodson).
    2-1-GB 1 (3:26) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 81-V.Shiancoe for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-GB 13 (6:34) 28-A.Peterson right end to GB 14 for -1 yards (52-C.Matthews, 74-A.Kampman).
    3-11-GB 14 (5:04) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 18-S.Rice for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-STL 17 (10:01) (Shotgun) 28-A.Peterson right end to SL 13 for 4 yards (21-O.Atogwe, 24-R.Bartell).
    2-6-STL 13 (9:21) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 81-V.Shiancoe for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SL-95-C.Ryan, Defensive Offside, declined.

    1-10-STL 23 (11:28) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete deep middle to 18-S.Rice.
    1-7-STL 7 (10:07) 28-A.Peterson up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-BAL 16 (12:14) 29-C.Taylor right end to BLT 19 for -3 yards (55-T.Suggs).
    2-13-BAL 19 (11:31) 4-B.Favre pass deep right to 81-V.Shiancoe for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BLT-97-K.Gregg, Defensive Offside, declined.

    1-10-BAL 22 (8:48) 29-C.Taylor right guard to BLT 22 for no gain (94-J.Bannan, 55-T.Suggs).
    4-10-BAL 22 (7:20) 8-R.Longwell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.

    1-10-BAL 15 (8:04) 29-C.Taylor right end to BLT 14 for 1 yard (59-D.Ellerbe).
    4-7-BAL 12 (6:05) 8-R.Longwell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.


    1-10-BAL 18 (2:51) 28-A.Peterson up the middle to BLT 20 for -2 yards (56-T.Gooden).
    4-6-BAL 14 (2:00) 8-R.Longwell 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.

    1-10-PIT 21 (7:23) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short left to 87-B.Berrian. Coverage by #22 Gay.
    3-2-PIT 2 (5:17) 28-A.Peterson left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-38-N.Tahi was injured during the play.

    1-10-PIT 21 (8:39) 4-B.Favre pass short right to 28-A.Peterson to PIT 10 for 11 yards (25-R.Clark). PIT-90-T.Kirschke was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
    3-8-PIT 8 (6:42) 4-B.Favre sacked at PIT 14 for -6 yards (99-B.Keisel). FUMBLES (99-B.Keisel), RECOVERED by PIT-56-L.Woodley at PIT 23. 56-L.Woodley for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN.


    1-10-GB 14 (4:54) 28-A.Peterson left guard to GB 10 for 4 yards (79-R.Pickett, 56-N.Barnett).
    4-1-GB 1 (1:21) 28-A.Peterson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-GB 23 (11:57) (No Huddle) 28-A.Peterson right end to GB 19 for 4 yards (74-A.Kampman, 21-C.Woodson).
    1-10-GB 12 (10:48) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 81-V.Shiancoe for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-GB 16 (8:20) 28-A.Peterson right guard to GB 14 for 2 yards (77-C.Jenkins, 79-R.Pickett).
    4-1-GB 7 (6:58) 28-A.Peterson right guard to GB 8 for -1 yards (50-A.Hawk, 79-R.Pickett).

    1-10-GB 22 (:48) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short right to 12-P.Harvin.
    4-11-GB 23 (:13) 8-R.Longwell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.

    1-10-GB 20 (:25) 28-A.Peterson up the middle to GB 18 for 2 yards (90-B.Raji). PENALTY on GB-90-B.Raji, Face Mask (15 Yards), 9 yards, enforced at GB 18.
    3-2-GB 2 (13:39) 4-B.Favre pass short right to 83-J.Dugan for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-GB 15 (4:49) 28-A.Peterson left end to GB 15 for no gain (56-N.Barnett).
    3-11-GB 16 (3:54) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 87-B.Berrian for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-DET 11 (11:06) 28-A.Peterson right tackle to DET 3 for 8 yards (40-M.Manuel, 59-J.Peterson).
    4-3-DET 4 (9:21) 8-R.Longwell 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.

    1-10-DET 17 (:37) (Shotgun) 28-A.Peterson FUMBLES (Aborted) at DET 23, RECOVERED by DET-79-S.Hill at DET 29. 79-S.Hill to DET 29 for no gain (Team).


    1-10-DET 22 (10:53) 28-A.Peterson left tackle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.


    1-10-DET 17 (5:11) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short right to 81-V.Shiancoe (41-W.James).
    4-1-DET 8 (4:26) 83-J.Dugan up the middle to DET 8 for no gain (90-G.Jackson).

    1-10-DET 14 (8:57) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short right to 87-B.Berrian.
    4-13-DET 17 (7:39) 8-R.Longwell 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.

    1-10-SEA 23 (10:13) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass deep middle to 12-P.Harvin for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-SEA 15 (2:46) 28-A.Peterson left end to SEA 5 for 10 yards (27-J.Babineaux).
    2-3-SEA 3 (1:17) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 87-B.Berrian for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-P.Kerney].

    1-10-SEA 19 (5:38) 28-A.Peterson right tackle to SEA 16 for 3 yards (24-D.Grant).
    1-7-SEA 7 (4:16) 4-B.Favre pass short right to 18-S.Rice for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [59-A.Curry].

    1-10-CHI 17 (9:35) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 12-P.Harvin to CHI 13 for 4 yards (53-N.Roach).
    3-3-CHI 10 (8:13) 4-B.Favre pass short right to 29-C.Taylor for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-CHI 20 (9:42) 29-C.Taylor left tackle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on MIN-87-B.Berrian, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 5.
    4-9-CHI 19 (7:49) 8-R.Longwell 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.

    1-10-CHI 10 (1:44) PENALTY on MIN-4-B.Favre, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 10 - No Play.
    4-2-CHI 2 (13:39) 8-R.Longwell 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.

    1-10-CHI 24 (8:57) 29-C.Taylor left tackle to CHI 15 for 9 yards (52-J.Williams).
    2-5-CHI 5 (6:39) 28-A.Peterson left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-ARI 15 (10:47) 29-C.Taylor left tackle to ARZ 12 for 3 yards (93-C.Campbell, 54-G.Hayes).
    1-3-ARI 3 (9:53) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short left to 81-V.Shiancoe. Minnesota challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-B.Favre pass short left to 81-V.Shiancoe for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-ARI 22 (4:24) 28-A.Peterson right end pushed ob at ARZ 11 for 11 yards (21-A.Rolle).
    4-5-ARI 6 (2:00) 8-R.Longwell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.

    1-10-CIN 21 (:53) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre right end to CIN 17 for 4 yards. 4-B.Favre pass deep left to 18-S.Rice for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on MIN-4-B.Favre, Illegal Forward Pass, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 17.
    4-12-CIN 23 (14:32) 8-R.Longwell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.

    1-10-CIN 11 (9:40) 28-A.Peterson right guard to CIN 9 for 2 yards (90-P.Sims; 41-C.Ndukwe).
    3-8-CIN 9 (8:50) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 18-S.Rice for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-CIN 12 (:58) 28-A.Peterson left end to CIN 12 for no gain (41-C.Ndukwe).
    4-3-CIN 5 (:38) 8-R.Longwell 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.

    1-10-CIN 25 (10:44) 29-C.Taylor up the middle to CIN 8 for 17 yards (22-J.Joseph). CIN-22-J.Joseph was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
    3-1-CIN 1 (8:44) 28-A.Peterson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-CIN 16 (5:52) 28-A.Peterson left guard to CIN 14 for 2 yards (53-R.Jeanty).
    2-3-CIN 3 (3:29) 28-A.Peterson left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-CAR 25 (5:26) 28-A.Peterson up the middle to CAR 22 for 3 yards (75-H.Thomas).
    4-6-CAR 21 (3:59) 8-R.Longwell 39 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.

    1-10-CAR 16 (2:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass deep left intended for 87-B.Berrian INTERCEPTED by 43-C.Harris at CAR -3. Touchback

    1-10-CHI 22 (8:29) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete deep right to 18-S.Rice. PENALTY on CHI-33-C.Tillman, Defensive Pass Interference, 21 yards,
    1-1-CHI 1 (8:22) 28-A.Peterson left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-CHI 20 (3:36) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete deep right to 28-A.Peterson.
    2-6-CHI 6 (1:23) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 81-V.Shiancoe for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-CHI 25 (6:57) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 18-S.Rice to CHI 13 for 12 yards (36-J.Bullocks, 35-Z.Bowman).
    1-1-CHI 1 (5:52) (No Huddle) 28-A.Peterson right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-CHI 19 (1:58) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short middle to 18-S.Rice (92-H.Hillenmeyer) [95-A.Adams].
    4-6-CHI 6 (:22) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 18-S.Rice for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-NYG 10 (13:03) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 81-V.Shiancoe for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-NYG 22 (1:03) 29-C.Taylor left guard to NYG 23 for -1 yards (52-M.Boley).
    4-6-NYG 18 (14:49) 8-R.Longwell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.

    1-10-NYG 15 (4:24) 4-B.Favre scrambles right end to NYG 13 for 2 yards. PENALTY on MIN-4-B.Favre, Illegal Forward Pass, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 13.
    2-4-NYG 4 (2:45) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 18-S.Rice for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-NYG 12 (:16) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short middle to 12-P.Harvin (26-A.Rouse).
    2-10-NYG 12 (:11) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short right to 18-S.Rice for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-NYG 14 (9:51) 4-B.Favre pass short right to 12-P.Harvin to NYG 9 for 5 yards (20-M.Johnson, 41-C.Brown).
    4-2-NYG 6 (8:08) 8-R.Longwell 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.

    1-10-NYG 20 (2:40) 34-A.Young left guard to NYG 10 for 10 yards (26-A.Rouse).
    4-9-NYG 9 (:10) 8-R.Longwell 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.
    Beautiful. My mind is numb and a single tear falls from the corner of my eye.
    Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please. Mark Twain

  8. #28
    Prophet's Avatar
    Prophet is offline Jersey Retired
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Posts
    17,388

    Re: 4th and short.

    Purple Floyd wrote:
    Prophet wrote:
    The 4th and short yardage blunders are a point of contention, so I was wondering how the boys handled this during the 2009 season.

    The raw data is below and it is pulled off of nfl.com in the ‘play by play’ section. The only information I pulled off was stuff from each game where it was 3rd and 2 or less or 4th and two or less. I considered the play a success if it resulted in a first down or a TD. I excluded all punts and field goals.

    I am aware of the rounding errors and the low N, if you feel inclined to complain about that then please print this and roll it up tightly, shove it up your ass, and then force it down your own throat and while you are gurgling and gagging youtube your complaints to Webby and the complaints department. It will be handled appropriately.

    The summary of the information is as follows for the 2009 season:

    3rd and short (2 yds or less)
    This information is presented with the player, then percentage of time they received the ball in this scenario and their success rate (there is some rounding error).
    AD 48% 68%
    CT 17% 50%
    Shiancoe 7% 67%
    Berrian 4% 100%
    Dugan 4% 100%
    Harvin 4% 50%
    Rice 4% 50%
    Tahi 2% 100%
    Lewis 2% 100%
    Favre 2% 100%
    Young 2% 100%
    Kleinsasser 2% 0%

    4th and short (same format as above)
    AD 21% 67%
    Rice 21% 100%
    Tahi 14% 100%
    Berrian 7% 100%
    Dugan 7% 0%
    CT 7% 0%
    Harvin 7% 0%
    Shiancoe 7% 0%
    Kleinsasser 7% 0%

    What does this all mean? Well, I guess AD does a lot better in the fourth and shorts than I was thinking he did and CT didn’t do as well as I thought he did. Rice and AD were tied for helping out in the success of the 4th and shorts while CT barely registered in the charts.

    In summary, it doesn’t mean a damn thing because it’s a myopic look at one part of the game while blocking everything else from my mind. At a minimum, I hopefully made you waste some of your life reading this over and contemplating what it all means. If I did that, my plan was successful.

    Raw Data

    Game 1 (Vikings 34 Browns 20)

    3-1-CLE 40 (5:45-1st quarter) 28-A.Peterson right guard to CLV 33 for 7 yards (22-B.McDonald).
    3-1-CLE 24 (3:48-1st quarter) 83-J.Dugan right guard to CLV 19 for 5 yards (50-E.Barton, 52-D.Jackson).
    3-1-MIN 29 (4:39-2nd quarter) 29-C.Taylor left tackle to MIN 29 for no gain (26-A.Elam).
    3-2-MIN 34 (1:14-2nd quarter) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short left to 29-C.Taylor [95-K.Wimbley].
    3-1-CLE 1 (10:10-3rd quarter) 28-A.Peterson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
    3-1-MIN 27 (7:14-3rd quarter) 28-A.Peterson right guard to MIN 29 for 2 yards (52-D.Jackson).

    Game 2 (Vikings 27 Lions 13)

    3-1-DET 47 (13:33-3rd quarter) 28-A.Peterson left tackle to DET 48 for -1 yards (40-M.Manuel; 55-L.Foote).
    3-2-DET 25 (2:23-4th quarter) 29-C.Taylor left tackle to DET 25 for no gain (24-K.Pearson).
    4-2-DET 25 (2:18) (Shotgun) 7-T.Jackson pass short right to 29-C.Taylor to DET 11 for 14 yards (50-E.Sims). DET-50-E.Sims was injured during the play (during garbage time at end of game). This was followed by taking the knee to run out the clock, needed the first down to do this.

    Game 3 (Vikings 27 9ers 24)

    3-1-MIN 41 (1:00-4th quarter) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short right to 12-P.Harvin to MIN 46 for 5 yards.
    4-5-SF 47 (1:55) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short right to 12-P.Harvin (31-D.Bly) (after 2 min. warning at end of the game, followed by a 3 and out and the infamous G. Lewis catch)
    3-3-SF 32 (:12) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass deep right to 17-G.Lewis for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-M.Lawson]. The Replay Assistant challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld.

    Game 4 (Vikings 30 Packers 23)

    3-1-MIN 42 (8:31-1st quarter) 28-A.Peterson left end to MIN 45 for 3 yards (54-B.Chillar, 50-A.Hawk).
    3-2-MIN 31 (10:14-2nd quarter) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short right to 18-S.Rice to GB 45 for 24 yards (38-T.Williams).
    3-1-MIN 29 (14:02-3rd quarter) 28-A.Peterson left tackle to MIN 34 for 5 yards (90-B.Raji).
    4-1-GB 10 (4:45-1st quarter) 28-A.Peterson left guard to GB 8 for 2 yards (79-R.Pickett, 50-A.Hawk). This resulted in a Shiancoe TD a couple plays later.

    Game 5 (Vikings 38 Rams 10)

    3-1-STL 37 (13:21-4th quarter) 28-A.Peterson right guard to SL 33 for 4 yards (53-P.Lenon).
    3-2-STL 15 (10:43-4th quarter) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 87-B.Berrian pushed ob at SL 7 for 8 yards (43-C.Dahl).
    3-1-MIN 29 (5:26-4th quarter) 7-T.Jackson pass short right to 38-N.Tahi to SL 39 for 32 yards (32-B.Fletcher).
    3-1-STL 1 (2:00-4th quarter) 29-C.Taylor right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    Game 6 (Vikings 33 Ravens 31)

    3-1-BAL 35 (10:13-3rd quarter) 28-A.Peterson left guard to BLT 33 for 2 yards (26-D.Landry).
    3-1-BAL 1 (10:12-4th quarter) 4-B.Favre pass short right to 81-V.Shiancoe for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    Game 7 (Vikings 17 Steelers 27)

    3-1-PIT 12 (6:41-2nd quarter) 28-A.Peterson left guard to PIT 3 for 9 yards (25-R.Clark, 22-W.Gay).
    3-2-PIT 2 (5:17-2nd quarter) 28-A.Peterson left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-38-N.Tahi was injured during the play.
    3-1-PIT 1 (4:52-3rd quarter) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short middle to 40-J.Kleinsasser [92-J.Harrison]. Coverage by #51 Farrior.
    4-1-PIT 35 (6:47-3rd quarter) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 18-S.Rice to PIT 1 for 34 yards (43-T.Polamalu).

    Game 8 (Vikings 38 Packers 26)

    3-2-GB 2 (2:02-1st quarter) 28-A.Peterson left guard to GB 1 for 1 yard (54-B.Chillar, 77-C.Jenkins).
    3-2-GB 2 (13:39-4th quarter) 4-B.Favre pass short right to 83-J.Dugan for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
    4-1-GB 1 (1:21-1st quarter) 28-A.Peterson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
    4-1-GB 7 (6:58-2nd quarter) 28-A.Peterson right guard to GB 8 for -1 yards (50-A.Hawk, 79-R.Pickett).
    4-7-GB 24 (:33-4th quarter)) 29-C.Taylor left end to GB 22 for 2 yards (20-A.Bigby, 50-A.Hawk). Yard marker changed due to change of possession.

    Game 9 (Vikings 27 Lions 10)

    3-2-MIN 38 (2:12-3rd quarter) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short right to 18-S.Rice. DET-60-J.Cohen was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
    4-1-DET 8 (4:26-2nd quarter) 83-J.Dugan up the middle to DET 8 for no gain (90-G.Jackson).

    Game 10 (Vikings 35 Seahawks 9)

    3-1-MIN 30 (9:08-1st quarter) 28-A.Peterson right end to MIN 39 for 9 yards (36-L.Milloy).
    3-2-MIN 34 (12:52-3rd quarter) 28-A.Peterson left guard to MIN 32 for -2 yards (57-D.Hawthorne).
    3-1-SEA 41 (7:39-3rd quarter) 28-A.Peterson left end to SEA 40 for 1 yard (92-B.Mebane, 79-R.Bryant).

    Game 11 (Vikings 36 Bears 10)

    3-2-MIN 40 (10:27-4th quarter) 28-A.Peterson right end to MIN 43 for 3 yards (95-A.Adams; 94-M.Harrison).

    Game 12 (Vikings 17 Cardinals 30)

    3-2-MIN 16 (2:30-3rd quarter) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 87-B.Berrian to MIN 21 for 5 yards (25-B.McFadden) [78-A.Branch].
    3-1-MIN 25 (3:38-4th quarter) 28-A.Peterson up the middle to MIN 24 for -1 yards (78-A.Branch, 58-K.Dansby).
    3-1-ARI 45 (1:36-4th quarter) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 29-C.Taylor to ARZ 31 for 14 yards (25-B.McFadden, 27-M.Adams).
    4-2-MIN 24 (3:07-4th quarter) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short right to 18-S.Rice to MIN 32 for 8 yards (22-M.Ware).

    Game 13 (Vikings 30 Bengals 10)

    3-1-MIN 47 (2:43-1st quarter) 28-A.Peterson up the middle to CIN 38 for 15 yards (41-C.Ndukwe). CIN-42-C.Crocker was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
    3-2-MIN 49 (2:01-2nd quarter) 4-B.Favre up the middle to CIN 47 for 4 yards (57-Dh.Jones).
    3-2-CIN 25 (1:07-2nd quarter) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 81-V.Shiancoe to CIN 12 for 13 yards (43-T.Nelson).
    3-1-CIN 1 (8:44-3rd quarter) 28-A.Peterson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    Game 14 (Vikings 7 Panther 26)

    3-1-MIN 45 (9:45-2nd quarter) 28-A.Peterson right tackle to MIN 44 for -1 yards (53-N.Diggs, 50-J.Anderson).

    Game 15 (Vikings 30 Bears 36 OT)

    3-1-MIN 33 (11:57-2nd quarter) 29-C.Taylor left guard to MIN 42 for 9 yards (92-H.Hillenmeyer).
    3-2- (9:47-2nd quarter) (Shotgun) 29-C.Taylor right end to 50 for no gain (71-I.Idonije).
    3-2-CHI 22 (12:55-4th quarter) 28-A.Peterson right tackle to CHI 23 for -1 yards (91-T.Harris, 55-L.Briggs).
    3-1-CHI 41 (2:52-4th quarter) 28-A.Peterson right tackle to CHI 38 for 3 yards (20-C.Steltz).
    4-6-CHI 6 (:22-4th quarter) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 18-S.Rice for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Game 16 (Vikings 44 Giants 7)

    3-1-NYG 13 (15:00-2nd quarter) 28-A.Peterson right guard to NYG 13 for no gain (96-B.Cofield, 94-M.Kiwanuka).
    3-2-NYG 6 (8:10-3rd quarter) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short middle to 12-P.Harvin.
    3-1-NYG 1 (6:25-3rd quarter) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short right to 81-V.Shiancoe.
    3-1-MIN 41 (2:24-4th quarter) 34-A.Young right guard to MIN 46 for 5 yards (41-C.Brown; 94-M.Kiwanuka).
    4-1-NYG 13 (14:49-2nd quarter) (Run formation) PENALTY on MIN-40-J.Kleinsasser, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 13 - No Play.
    4-1-NYG 31 (:46-2nd quarter) 38-N.Tahi up the middle to NYG 29 for 2 yards (96-B.Cofield; 98-F.Robbins).
    4-1-NYG 1 (6:18-3rd quarter) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 38-N.Tahi for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
    Could I have the long version please?
    Sure, I can send you all sorts of spreadsheets with random data in it and you can make up, er, ah, I mean analyze it and have objective data that will numb the minds of the innocent to the point that they think you are actually saying something worthwhile when you are, in fact, pulling stuff from your ass just like everyone else.
    Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please. Mark Twain

  9. #29
    Prophet's Avatar
    Prophet is offline Jersey Retired
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Posts
    17,388

    Re: 4th and short.

    VikingMike wrote:
    After digesting all of the data, I am left with one conclusive observation. Clearly, no one expected us to be stupid enough to hand off to Tahi or pass to Berrian on 3rd/4th and short, because each time we did it, we were successful...shocking as that might seem.
    The pass to Tahi was about as expected as this:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGhuCk5qQ_8&p=A95FA10DC11CB783&playnext=1& index=17
    Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please. Mark Twain

  10. #30
    V-Unit's Avatar
    V-Unit is offline Jersey Retired
    Join Date
    Dec 1969
    Posts
    6,317

    Re: 4th and short.

    snowinapril wrote:
    V-Unit wrote:
    snowinapril wrote:
    OK, 4th and short on the goal line........

    Yes, we can run the ball but...... I don't think we are a power running team that is going to get 1.5 yards. We don't move the line like a power running team would. Zone blocking works well with AP, but I think it turns the linemen into mush when it comes power situations.

    I would have preferred the pass on that play. Oh well!
    Fair.

    I consider the facts that:

    We had already failed at 4th and short via passing
    Favre had already thrown two goalline INTs
    DD was running very well

    and think that a run was the preferred option.

    -V-
    On that run, Load and Sasser didn't get any push on the end of the line. The lead back, was heading out right to lead around the end, AD decided that he was going to run it up the hole that was filled by Dansby. That was on AD. He went up the middle without a lead blocker. The D wasn't spread out at all to be heading up the hole without the lead back. The fact that the guy that Sasser and Load were to take care of got a bit of up field penetration may have been part of AD's decision process.

    Still would have like to see a pass, would have been nice to have Rice for a jump ball if necessary.
    I posted the below earlier this week.

    I'd also like to note that people are saying that the 4th and 1 was a run to the outside. I have a lot of issues with that.
    1. AD's thought process is to plow through when contact meets him. It's a goalline play.
    2. I'm more likely to assume that Tahi picked the wrong hole rather than AD.
    3. Even if it was a run to the outside, Loadholt and Cook got no push at all. It was poorly executed through and through.

    -V-
    I'm not gonna put it on AD. Dansby simple made a great play, as did their DL, pushing AD inside. Saying he should have run outside where there was nothing there is stupid, even if it was designed that way. If he goes outside and doesn't get it, people would be here saying, "YOU ONLY NEED ONE YARD DAMMIT. CUT UPFIELD. GET VERTICAL."

    Either way, you saw passes on the goalline earlier in the game, and also on a previous 4th down. They were all massive failures.

    -V-
    "I hate when threads are destroyed by facts and logic."
    - Prophet


    Thanks Josdin!

Page 3 of 4 FirstFirst 1234 LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. Short But Sweet.
    By Webby in forum Trash the Pack
    Replies: 10
    Last Post: 03-29-2006, 03:34 PM
  2. Short and goal...
    By Prophet in forum Vikings Fan Forum
    Replies: 11
    Last Post: 11-22-2005, 06:25 PM
  3. Short and Sweet!
    By PackerPride in forum Vikings Fan Forum
    Replies: 19
    Last Post: 08-07-2005, 05:49 AM
  4. Brandon Short
    By purplehorn in forum Vikings Fan Forum
    Replies: 24
    Last Post: 03-24-2004, 07:31 PM
  5. short and sweet
    By vikesppe80 in forum Vikings Fan Forum
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 11-23-2002, 12:13 PM

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •