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Thread: 4th and short.

  1. #1
    Prophet's Avatar
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    4th and short.

    The 4th and short yardage blunders are a point of contention, so I was wondering how the boys handled this during the 2009 season.

    The raw data is below and it is pulled off of nfl.com in the ‘play by play’ section. The only information I pulled off was stuff from each game where it was 3rd and 2 or less or 4th and two or less. I considered the play a success if it resulted in a first down or a TD. I excluded all punts and field goals.

    I am aware of the rounding errors and the low N, if you feel inclined to complain about that then please print this and roll it up tightly, shove it up your ass, and then force it down your own throat and while you are gurgling and gagging youtube your complaints to Webby and the complaints department. It will be handled appropriately.

    The summary of the information is as follows for the 2009 season:

    3rd and short (2 yds or less)
    This information is presented with the player, then percentage of time they received the ball in this scenario and their success rate (there is some rounding error).
    AD 48% 68%
    CT 17% 50%
    Shiancoe 7% 67%
    Berrian 4% 100%
    Dugan 4% 100%
    Harvin 4% 50%
    Rice 4% 50%
    Tahi 2% 100%
    Lewis 2% 100%
    Favre 2% 100%
    Young 2% 100%
    Kleinsasser 2% 0%

    4th and short (same format as above)
    AD 21% 67%
    Rice 21% 100%
    Tahi 14% 100%
    Berrian 7% 100%
    Dugan 7% 0%
    CT 7% 0%
    Harvin 7% 0%
    Shiancoe 7% 0%
    Kleinsasser 7% 0%

    What does this all mean? Well, I guess AD does a lot better in the fourth and shorts than I was thinking he did and CT didn’t do as well as I thought he did. Rice and AD were tied for helping out in the success of the 4th and shorts while CT barely registered in the charts.

    In summary, it doesn’t mean a damn thing because it’s a myopic look at one part of the game while blocking everything else from my mind. At a minimum, I hopefully made you waste some of your life reading this over and contemplating what it all means. If I did that, my plan was successful.

    Raw Data

    Game 1 (Vikings 34 Browns 20)

    3-1-CLE 40 (5:45-1st quarter) 28-A.Peterson right guard to CLV 33 for 7 yards (22-B.McDonald).
    3-1-CLE 24 (3:48-1st quarter) 83-J.Dugan right guard to CLV 19 for 5 yards (50-E.Barton, 52-D.Jackson).
    3-1-MIN 29 (4:39-2nd quarter) 29-C.Taylor left tackle to MIN 29 for no gain (26-A.Elam).
    3-2-MIN 34 (1:14-2nd quarter) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short left to 29-C.Taylor [95-K.Wimbley].
    3-1-CLE 1 (10:10-3rd quarter) 28-A.Peterson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
    3-1-MIN 27 (7:14-3rd quarter) 28-A.Peterson right guard to MIN 29 for 2 yards (52-D.Jackson).

    Game 2 (Vikings 27 Lions 13)

    3-1-DET 47 (13:33-3rd quarter) 28-A.Peterson left tackle to DET 48 for -1 yards (40-M.Manuel; 55-L.Foote).
    3-2-DET 25 (2:23-4th quarter) 29-C.Taylor left tackle to DET 25 for no gain (24-K.Pearson).
    4-2-DET 25 (2:18) (Shotgun) 7-T.Jackson pass short right to 29-C.Taylor to DET 11 for 14 yards (50-E.Sims). DET-50-E.Sims was injured during the play (during garbage time at end of game). This was followed by taking the knee to run out the clock, needed the first down to do this.

    Game 3 (Vikings 27 9ers 24)

    3-1-MIN 41 (1:00-4th quarter) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short right to 12-P.Harvin to MIN 46 for 5 yards.
    4-5-SF 47 (1:55) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short right to 12-P.Harvin (31-D.Bly) (after 2 min. warning at end of the game, followed by a 3 and out and the infamous G. Lewis catch)
    3-3-SF 32 (:12) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass deep right to 17-G.Lewis for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-M.Lawson]. The Replay Assistant challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld.

    Game 4 (Vikings 30 Packers 23)

    3-1-MIN 42 (8:31-1st quarter) 28-A.Peterson left end to MIN 45 for 3 yards (54-B.Chillar, 50-A.Hawk).
    3-2-MIN 31 (10:14-2nd quarter) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short right to 18-S.Rice to GB 45 for 24 yards (38-T.Williams).
    3-1-MIN 29 (14:02-3rd quarter) 28-A.Peterson left tackle to MIN 34 for 5 yards (90-B.Raji).
    4-1-GB 10 (4:45-1st quarter) 28-A.Peterson left guard to GB 8 for 2 yards (79-R.Pickett, 50-A.Hawk). This resulted in a Shiancoe TD a couple plays later.

    Game 5 (Vikings 38 Rams 10)

    3-1-STL 37 (13:21-4th quarter) 28-A.Peterson right guard to SL 33 for 4 yards (53-P.Lenon).
    3-2-STL 15 (10:43-4th quarter) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 87-B.Berrian pushed ob at SL 7 for 8 yards (43-C.Dahl).
    3-1-MIN 29 (5:26-4th quarter) 7-T.Jackson pass short right to 38-N.Tahi to SL 39 for 32 yards (32-B.Fletcher).
    3-1-STL 1 (2:00-4th quarter) 29-C.Taylor right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    Game 6 (Vikings 33 Ravens 31)

    3-1-BAL 35 (10:13-3rd quarter) 28-A.Peterson left guard to BLT 33 for 2 yards (26-D.Landry).
    3-1-BAL 1 (10:12-4th quarter) 4-B.Favre pass short right to 81-V.Shiancoe for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    Game 7 (Vikings 17 Steelers 27)

    3-1-PIT 12 (6:41-2nd quarter) 28-A.Peterson left guard to PIT 3 for 9 yards (25-R.Clark, 22-W.Gay).
    3-2-PIT 2 (5:17-2nd quarter) 28-A.Peterson left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-38-N.Tahi was injured during the play.
    3-1-PIT 1 (4:52-3rd quarter) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short middle to 40-J.Kleinsasser [92-J.Harrison]. Coverage by #51 Farrior.
    4-1-PIT 35 (6:47-3rd quarter) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 18-S.Rice to PIT 1 for 34 yards (43-T.Polamalu).

    Game 8 (Vikings 38 Packers 26)

    3-2-GB 2 (2:02-1st quarter) 28-A.Peterson left guard to GB 1 for 1 yard (54-B.Chillar, 77-C.Jenkins).
    3-2-GB 2 (13:39-4th quarter) 4-B.Favre pass short right to 83-J.Dugan for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
    4-1-GB 1 (1:21-1st quarter) 28-A.Peterson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
    4-1-GB 7 (6:58-2nd quarter) 28-A.Peterson right guard to GB 8 for -1 yards (50-A.Hawk, 79-R.Pickett).
    4-7-GB 24 (:33-4th quarter)) 29-C.Taylor left end to GB 22 for 2 yards (20-A.Bigby, 50-A.Hawk). Yard marker changed due to change of possession.

    Game 9 (Vikings 27 Lions 10)

    3-2-MIN 38 (2:12-3rd quarter) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short right to 18-S.Rice. DET-60-J.Cohen was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
    4-1-DET 8 (4:26-2nd quarter) 83-J.Dugan up the middle to DET 8 for no gain (90-G.Jackson).

    Game 10 (Vikings 35 Seahawks 9)

    3-1-MIN 30 (9:08-1st quarter) 28-A.Peterson right end to MIN 39 for 9 yards (36-L.Milloy).
    3-2-MIN 34 (12:52-3rd quarter) 28-A.Peterson left guard to MIN 32 for -2 yards (57-D.Hawthorne).
    3-1-SEA 41 (7:39-3rd quarter) 28-A.Peterson left end to SEA 40 for 1 yard (92-B.Mebane, 79-R.Bryant).

    Game 11 (Vikings 36 Bears 10)

    3-2-MIN 40 (10:27-4th quarter) 28-A.Peterson right end to MIN 43 for 3 yards (95-A.Adams; 94-M.Harrison).

    Game 12 (Vikings 17 Cardinals 30)

    3-2-MIN 16 (2:30-3rd quarter) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 87-B.Berrian to MIN 21 for 5 yards (25-B.McFadden) [78-A.Branch].
    3-1-MIN 25 (3:38-4th quarter) 28-A.Peterson up the middle to MIN 24 for -1 yards (78-A.Branch, 58-K.Dansby).
    3-1-ARI 45 (1:36-4th quarter) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 29-C.Taylor to ARZ 31 for 14 yards (25-B.McFadden, 27-M.Adams).
    4-2-MIN 24 (3:07-4th quarter) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short right to 18-S.Rice to MIN 32 for 8 yards (22-M.Ware).

    Game 13 (Vikings 30 Bengals 10)

    3-1-MIN 47 (2:43-1st quarter) 28-A.Peterson up the middle to CIN 38 for 15 yards (41-C.Ndukwe). CIN-42-C.Crocker was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
    3-2-MIN 49 (2:01-2nd quarter) 4-B.Favre up the middle to CIN 47 for 4 yards (57-Dh.Jones).
    3-2-CIN 25 (1:07-2nd quarter) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 81-V.Shiancoe to CIN 12 for 13 yards (43-T.Nelson).
    3-1-CIN 1 (8:44-3rd quarter) 28-A.Peterson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    Game 14 (Vikings 7 Panther 26)

    3-1-MIN 45 (9:45-2nd quarter) 28-A.Peterson right tackle to MIN 44 for -1 yards (53-N.Diggs, 50-J.Anderson).

    Game 15 (Vikings 30 Bears 36 OT)

    3-1-MIN 33 (11:57-2nd quarter) 29-C.Taylor left guard to MIN 42 for 9 yards (92-H.Hillenmeyer).
    3-2- (9:47-2nd quarter) (Shotgun) 29-C.Taylor right end to 50 for no gain (71-I.Idonije).
    3-2-CHI 22 (12:55-4th quarter) 28-A.Peterson right tackle to CHI 23 for -1 yards (91-T.Harris, 55-L.Briggs).
    3-1-CHI 41 (2:52-4th quarter) 28-A.Peterson right tackle to CHI 38 for 3 yards (20-C.Steltz).
    4-6-CHI 6 (:22-4th quarter) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 18-S.Rice for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Game 16 (Vikings 44 Giants 7)

    3-1-NYG 13 (15:00-2nd quarter) 28-A.Peterson right guard to NYG 13 for no gain (96-B.Cofield, 94-M.Kiwanuka).
    3-2-NYG 6 (8:10-3rd quarter) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short middle to 12-P.Harvin.
    3-1-NYG 1 (6:25-3rd quarter) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short right to 81-V.Shiancoe.
    3-1-MIN 41 (2:24-4th quarter) 34-A.Young right guard to MIN 46 for 5 yards (41-C.Brown; 94-M.Kiwanuka).
    4-1-NYG 13 (14:49-2nd quarter) (Run formation) PENALTY on MIN-40-J.Kleinsasser, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 13 - No Play.
    4-1-NYG 31 (:46-2nd quarter) 38-N.Tahi up the middle to NYG 29 for 2 yards (96-B.Cofield; 98-F.Robbins).
    4-1-NYG 1 (6:18-3rd quarter) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 38-N.Tahi for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
    Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please. Mark Twain

  2. #2
    Mr Anderson's Avatar
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    Re: 4th and short.

    Awesome post. Really a great job.

    And I hate to be a pain in the ass, but a total number of these situations would be beneficial for us to analyze the outcome, so I did it myself:
    13 4th down situations
    45 3rd and short situations

    Also there's a 4th and 5,6, and 7 in there. Did you do all 4th down attempts? Or are these reporting errors that weren't calculated in?

  3. #3
    Prophet's Avatar
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    Re: 4th and short.

    Mr Anderson wrote:
    Awesome post. Really a great job.

    And I hate to be a pain in the ass, but a total number of these situations would be beneficial for us to analyze the outcome, so I did it myself:
    13 4th down situations
    45 3rd and short situations

    Also there's a 4th and 5,6, and 7 in there. Did you do all 4th down attempts? Or are these reporting errors that weren't calculated in?
    I screwed up my explanation. I only included 3rd and 2 or less and included all 4ths when they went for it. So, the summary I included includes all the raw data I posted.

    Was interesting to see it put in this light though. For whatever it's worth....not much. Interesting nonetheless.
    Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please. Mark Twain

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    V-Unit's Avatar
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    Re: 4th and short.

    So, out of the 13 fourth down situations, we converted 8 of them.
    - 61.5%

    4th and 2 or less occured 10 times last year and we converted 7 of them.
    - 70%

    Ryan Longwell attempted 9 FGs at the 40-49 range last year and converted 8 of them.
    - 88.9%

    So, each individual needs to ask himself: Is an extra 4 points worth the 19% increase in risk.

    Obviously, game situation will play a factor in your decision. However, game result should not, not if you really want to be fair to our coaches.

    -V-
    "I hate when threads are destroyed by facts and logic."
    - Prophet


    Thanks Josdin!

  5. #5
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    Re: 4th and short.

    You have C-Tay as 7% of 4th downs with no success ... but he clearly converted one fourth down with T-Jack

    4-2-DET 25 (2:18) (Shotgun) 7-T.Jackson pass short right to 29-C.Taylor to DET 11 for 14 yards (50-E.Sims). DET-50-E.Sims was injured during the play (during garbage time at end of game). This was followed by taking the knee to run out the clock, needed the first down to do this.

    Outside of this ... everything looks good ... and is at least interesting to look at.

  6. #6
    Prophet's Avatar
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    Re: 4th and short.

    midgensa wrote:
    You have C-Tay as 7% of 4th downs with no success ... but he clearly converted one fourth down with T-Jack

    4-2-DET 25 (2:18) (Shotgun) 7-T.Jackson pass short right to 29-C.Taylor to DET 11 for 14 yards (50-E.Sims). DET-50-E.Sims was injured during the play (during garbage time at end of game). This was followed by taking the knee to run out the clock, needed the first down to do this.

    Outside of this ... everything looks good ... and is at least interesting to look at.
    Oops! Exactly why I posted the raw data.
    Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please. Mark Twain

  7. #7
    kjdaddy is offline Pro-Bowler
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    Re: 4th and short.

    I don't know but a little front line surge this weekend woulda been helpful.

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    Re: 4th and short.

    Prophet wrote:
    4-1-NYG 1 (6:18-3rd quarter) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 38-N.Tahi for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
    Hmmmmmm, I've pondered this post several times and can't come up with anything for it other than to say, good stuff my friend. Been a while since we've seen an effort from you of this nature.

    On a side note, I question that little bit of raw data. Everyone knows we don't use Tahi as a weapon. He sucks. B)
    Many many thanks to my talented friend Jos for the new Sig.http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v343/josdin00/Vikings/Marrdro_sig.jpg

  9. #9
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    Re: 4th and short.

    V-Unit wrote:
    So, out of the 13 fourth down situations, we converted 8 of them.
    - 61.5%

    4th and 2 or less occured 10 times last year and we converted 7 of them.
    - 70%

    Ryan Longwell attempted 9 FGs at the 40-49 range last year and converted 8 of them.
    - 88.9%

    So, each individual needs to ask himself: Is an extra 4 points worth the 19% increase in risk.

    Obviously, game situation will play a factor in your decision. However, game result should not, not if you really want to be fair to our coaches.

    -V-
    19% extra risk doesn't equal 4 points. The 19% risk equals a first down, you would then have to calculate the odds they score a TD/fg/get nothing with a first down from inside the 25.

    In Prophets spirit of mind numbingly pointless statistical analysis, and ramblings, I'll attempt to do that.

    56 times the vikings had a first down on the opponents 10-25yard line. The results of those opportunities are

    TD: 32 * 7 =224
    FG: 17 * 3 =51
    Turnover: 5 * 0= 0
    Opponent TD: 2 * -7 = -14

    Total points = 261/56=4.66 points per opportunity.

    So on average a first down between the opponents 10-25 yard line is worth 4.66 points. Combine this with Prophet and V's figure that we get the first down 70% of the time from that situation and you get 4.66*.7=3.2624 points on average when the vikings go for it on 4th down and 2 or less around the opponents 25.

    Compare this to the 3 * 89%(chance of making it) = 2.67 points on average for kicking a field goal.

    According to my math I stand corrected and Childress made the correct calculation in deciding to for it in that position.

    See data below.



    1-10-CLE 19 (3:07) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 29-C.Taylor to CLV 14 for 5 yards (96-D.Bowens).
    (:06) 8-R.Longwell 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.

    1-10-CLE 23 (12:56) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 29-C.Taylor to CLV 21 for 2 yards (26-A.Elam).
    2-1-CLE 1 (11:17) 28-A.Peterson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN

    1-10-CLE 20 (11:31) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete deep left to 18-S.Rice. PENALTY on CLV-22-B.McDonald, Defensive Pass Interference, 16 yards, enforced at CLV 20 - No Play.
    (10:10) 28-A.Peterson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-CLE 13 (2:31) 29-C.Taylor left guard to CLV 15 for -2 yards (50-E.Barton).
    3-3-CLE 6 (1:12) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 12-P.Harvin for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-CLE 12 (8:55) 28-A.Peterson right guard to CLV 10 for 2 yards (71-A.Rubin, 96-D.Bowens).
    4-18-CLE 20 (6:59) 8-R.Longwell 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.

    1-10-DET 15 (2:00) 4-B.Favre pass short right to 18-S.Rice to DET 2 for 13 yards (32-A.Henry; 24-K.Pearson).
    2-1-DET 1 (1:09) 4-B.Favre pass short right to 81-V.Shiancoe for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.


    1-10-DET 13 (10:02) 29-C.Taylor right tackle to DET 14 for -1 yards (40-M.Manuel). FUMBLES (40-M.Manuel), and recovers at DET 13. 29-C.Taylor to DET 13 for no gain (90-G.Jackson).

    4-5-DET 8 (8:42) 8-R.Longwell 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.


    1-10-DET 16 (7:21) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 87-B.Berrian to DET 11 for 5 yards (26-L.Delmas; 31-P.Buchanon).
    1-3-DET 3 (6:02) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 12-P.Harvin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-SF 23 (14:05) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short middle to 87-B.Berrian.
    4-9-SF 22 (13:13) 8-R.Longwell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.


    1-10-SF 16 (:19) 4-B.Favre pass short right to 38-N.Tahi to SF 12 for 4 yards (99-M.Lawson, 51-T.Spikes). PENALTY on MIN-64-A.Herrera, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 16 - No Play.
    2-20-SF 26 (:06) 8-R.Longwell 44 yard field goal is BLOCKED (91-R.McDonald), Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe, RECOVERED by SF-22-N.Clements at SF 41. 22-N.Clements for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-GB 19 (6:05) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 87-B.Berrian pushed ob at GB 16 for 3 yards (21-C.Woodson).
    2-1-GB 1 (3:26) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 81-V.Shiancoe for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-GB 13 (6:34) 28-A.Peterson right end to GB 14 for -1 yards (52-C.Matthews, 74-A.Kampman).
    3-11-GB 14 (5:04) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 18-S.Rice for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-STL 17 (10:01) (Shotgun) 28-A.Peterson right end to SL 13 for 4 yards (21-O.Atogwe, 24-R.Bartell).
    2-6-STL 13 (9:21) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 81-V.Shiancoe for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SL-95-C.Ryan, Defensive Offside, declined.

    1-10-STL 23 (11:28) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete deep middle to 18-S.Rice.
    1-7-STL 7 (10:07) 28-A.Peterson up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-BAL 16 (12:14) 29-C.Taylor right end to BLT 19 for -3 yards (55-T.Suggs).
    2-13-BAL 19 (11:31) 4-B.Favre pass deep right to 81-V.Shiancoe for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BLT-97-K.Gregg, Defensive Offside, declined.

    1-10-BAL 22 (8:48) 29-C.Taylor right guard to BLT 22 for no gain (94-J.Bannan, 55-T.Suggs).
    4-10-BAL 22 (7:20) 8-R.Longwell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.

    1-10-BAL 15 (8:04) 29-C.Taylor right end to BLT 14 for 1 yard (59-D.Ellerbe).
    4-7-BAL 12 (6:05) 8-R.Longwell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.


    1-10-BAL 18 (2:51) 28-A.Peterson up the middle to BLT 20 for -2 yards (56-T.Gooden).
    4-6-BAL 14 (2:00) 8-R.Longwell 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.

    1-10-PIT 21 (7:23) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short left to 87-B.Berrian. Coverage by #22 Gay.
    3-2-PIT 2 (5:17) 28-A.Peterson left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-38-N.Tahi was injured during the play.

    1-10-PIT 21 (8:39) 4-B.Favre pass short right to 28-A.Peterson to PIT 10 for 11 yards (25-R.Clark). PIT-90-T.Kirschke was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
    3-8-PIT 8 (6:42) 4-B.Favre sacked at PIT 14 for -6 yards (99-B.Keisel). FUMBLES (99-B.Keisel), RECOVERED by PIT-56-L.Woodley at PIT 23. 56-L.Woodley for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN.


    1-10-GB 14 (4:54) 28-A.Peterson left guard to GB 10 for 4 yards (79-R.Pickett, 56-N.Barnett).
    4-1-GB 1 (1:21) 28-A.Peterson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-GB 23 (11:57) (No Huddle) 28-A.Peterson right end to GB 19 for 4 yards (74-A.Kampman, 21-C.Woodson).
    1-10-GB 12 (10:48) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 81-V.Shiancoe for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-GB 16 (8:20) 28-A.Peterson right guard to GB 14 for 2 yards (77-C.Jenkins, 79-R.Pickett).
    4-1-GB 7 (6:58) 28-A.Peterson right guard to GB 8 for -1 yards (50-A.Hawk, 79-R.Pickett).

    1-10-GB 22 (:48) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short right to 12-P.Harvin.
    4-11-GB 23 (:13) 8-R.Longwell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.

    1-10-GB 20 (:25) 28-A.Peterson up the middle to GB 18 for 2 yards (90-B.Raji). PENALTY on GB-90-B.Raji, Face Mask (15 Yards), 9 yards, enforced at GB 18.
    3-2-GB 2 (13:39) 4-B.Favre pass short right to 83-J.Dugan for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-GB 15 (4:49) 28-A.Peterson left end to GB 15 for no gain (56-N.Barnett).
    3-11-GB 16 (3:54) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 87-B.Berrian for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-DET 11 (11:06) 28-A.Peterson right tackle to DET 3 for 8 yards (40-M.Manuel, 59-J.Peterson).
    4-3-DET 4 (9:21) 8-R.Longwell 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.

    1-10-DET 17 (:37) (Shotgun) 28-A.Peterson FUMBLES (Aborted) at DET 23, RECOVERED by DET-79-S.Hill at DET 29. 79-S.Hill to DET 29 for no gain (Team).


    1-10-DET 22 (10:53) 28-A.Peterson left tackle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.


    1-10-DET 17 (5:11) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short right to 81-V.Shiancoe (41-W.James).
    4-1-DET 8 (4:26) 83-J.Dugan up the middle to DET 8 for no gain (90-G.Jackson).

    1-10-DET 14 (8:57) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short right to 87-B.Berrian.
    4-13-DET 17 (7:39) 8-R.Longwell 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.

    1-10-SEA 23 (10:13) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass deep middle to 12-P.Harvin for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-SEA 15 (2:46) 28-A.Peterson left end to SEA 5 for 10 yards (27-J.Babineaux).
    2-3-SEA 3 (1:17) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 87-B.Berrian for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-P.Kerney].

    1-10-SEA 19 (5:38) 28-A.Peterson right tackle to SEA 16 for 3 yards (24-D.Grant).
    1-7-SEA 7 (4:16) 4-B.Favre pass short right to 18-S.Rice for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [59-A.Curry].

    1-10-CHI 17 (9:35) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 12-P.Harvin to CHI 13 for 4 yards (53-N.Roach).
    3-3-CHI 10 (8:13) 4-B.Favre pass short right to 29-C.Taylor for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-CHI 20 (9:42) 29-C.Taylor left tackle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on MIN-87-B.Berrian, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 5.
    4-9-CHI 19 (7:49) 8-R.Longwell 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.

    1-10-CHI 10 (1:44) PENALTY on MIN-4-B.Favre, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 10 - No Play.
    4-2-CHI 2 (13:39) 8-R.Longwell 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.

    1-10-CHI 24 (8:57) 29-C.Taylor left tackle to CHI 15 for 9 yards (52-J.Williams).
    2-5-CHI 5 (6:39) 28-A.Peterson left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-ARI 15 (10:47) 29-C.Taylor left tackle to ARZ 12 for 3 yards (93-C.Campbell, 54-G.Hayes).
    1-3-ARI 3 (9:53) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short left to 81-V.Shiancoe. Minnesota challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-B.Favre pass short left to 81-V.Shiancoe for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-ARI 22 (4:24) 28-A.Peterson right end pushed ob at ARZ 11 for 11 yards (21-A.Rolle).
    4-5-ARI 6 (2:00) 8-R.Longwell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.

    1-10-CIN 21 (:53) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre right end to CIN 17 for 4 yards. 4-B.Favre pass deep left to 18-S.Rice for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on MIN-4-B.Favre, Illegal Forward Pass, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 17.
    4-12-CIN 23 (14:32) 8-R.Longwell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.

    1-10-CIN 11 (9:40) 28-A.Peterson right guard to CIN 9 for 2 yards (90-P.Sims; 41-C.Ndukwe).
    3-8-CIN 9 (8:50) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 18-S.Rice for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-CIN 12 (:58) 28-A.Peterson left end to CIN 12 for no gain (41-C.Ndukwe).
    4-3-CIN 5 (:38) 8-R.Longwell 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.

    1-10-CIN 25 (10:44) 29-C.Taylor up the middle to CIN 8 for 17 yards (22-J.Joseph). CIN-22-J.Joseph was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
    3-1-CIN 1 (8:44) 28-A.Peterson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-CIN 16 (5:52) 28-A.Peterson left guard to CIN 14 for 2 yards (53-R.Jeanty).
    2-3-CIN 3 (3:29) 28-A.Peterson left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-CAR 25 (5:26) 28-A.Peterson up the middle to CAR 22 for 3 yards (75-H.Thomas).
    4-6-CAR 21 (3:59) 8-R.Longwell 39 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.

    1-10-CAR 16 (2:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass deep left intended for 87-B.Berrian INTERCEPTED by 43-C.Harris at CAR -3. Touchback

    1-10-CHI 22 (8:29) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete deep right to 18-S.Rice. PENALTY on CHI-33-C.Tillman, Defensive Pass Interference, 21 yards,
    1-1-CHI 1 (8:22) 28-A.Peterson left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-CHI 20 (3:36) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete deep right to 28-A.Peterson.
    2-6-CHI 6 (1:23) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 81-V.Shiancoe for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-CHI 25 (6:57) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 18-S.Rice to CHI 13 for 12 yards (36-J.Bullocks, 35-Z.Bowman).
    1-1-CHI 1 (5:52) (No Huddle) 28-A.Peterson right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-CHI 19 (1:58) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short middle to 18-S.Rice (92-H.Hillenmeyer) [95-A.Adams].
    4-6-CHI 6 (:22) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 18-S.Rice for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-NYG 10 (13:03) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 81-V.Shiancoe for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-NYG 22 (1:03) 29-C.Taylor left guard to NYG 23 for -1 yards (52-M.Boley).
    4-6-NYG 18 (14:49) 8-R.Longwell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.

    1-10-NYG 15 (4:24) 4-B.Favre scrambles right end to NYG 13 for 2 yards. PENALTY on MIN-4-B.Favre, Illegal Forward Pass, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 13.
    2-4-NYG 4 (2:45) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 18-S.Rice for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-NYG 12 (:16) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short middle to 12-P.Harvin (26-A.Rouse).
    2-10-NYG 12 (:11) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short right to 18-S.Rice for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    1-10-NYG 14 (9:51) 4-B.Favre pass short right to 12-P.Harvin to NYG 9 for 5 yards (20-M.Johnson, 41-C.Brown).
    4-2-NYG 6 (8:08) 8-R.Longwell 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.

    1-10-NYG 20 (2:40) 34-A.Young left guard to NYG 10 for 10 yards (26-A.Rouse).
    4-9-NYG 9 (:10) 8-R.Longwell 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Loeffler, Holder-5-C.Kluwe.

  10. #10
    Traveling_Vike is offline Coordinator
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Posts
    880

    Re: 4th and short.

    Wow. Some impressive stats there. It really makes it seem like going for it was the better option.

    There's just one problem with basing future chances on past performance when you have a choice of two or more options. They are based on the assumption that you'll make the same choices in the same proportion in the future.

    Taking your summary from your post:

    TD: 32 * 7 =224
    FG: 17 * 3 =51
    Turnover: 5 * 0= 0
    Opponent TD: 2 * -7 = -14
    I have a couple of questions. First, is this the actual total of all attempts? Or are the 2 turnovers for score part of the five total turnovers? I'm going to assume that they are the result of either the five turnovers, or a return on a blocked FG.

    In any case, the impact is relatively minimal.

    My real point here is that, had we CHOSEN to kick more often, the resultant figures would be different as well. Given that the data shows we went for it almost twice as often as not, that speaks to a great deal of confidence in our offense, which is a good thing. A team slightly less confident would have kicked more often.

    If you assume a kicker's success percentage to be the same, then a difference of only a few times more choosing to kick would sway the probabilities in the other direction. I don't feel like doing all the calculations right now, but it seems apparent to me.

    What the hell, though, it's just math, not real life. Who knows what might happen on any one given attempt. We might line up to kick, have it blocked, pick it up and run for a TD. It might be partially blocked, recovered by an opponent in the end zone, and him be tackled there for a safety. There are lots of possibilities. None of them matter at all when you're lining up for the one play that you're actually running at that time.

    In general, I am in favor of kicking the FG at that point early in the game, unless field position dictates otherwise, being that you are too close to punt and too far out to reliably make the FG. Going for a 4th down conversion that early, unless it is less than a yard, smacks of either desperation or overconfidence, both of which can be fatal.

    My Meeple is purple. What color is yours?

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