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  1. #1
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    3rd and Long - the Vikings Nemesis...

    The following stats are provided as a reference to the next post. I apologize ahead of time for the length of this post.

    [size=6pt]3-9-MIN33 (12:53) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass short middle to T.Williamson to MIN 45 for 12 yards (V.Fox).
    3-7-MIN48 (11:25) B.Johnson pass deep right to T.Williamson pushed ob at WAS 6 for 46 yards (M.Rumph).
    3-8-MIN41 (14:47) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass incomplete deep left to T.Williamson.
    3-18-MIN28 (13:13) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass incomplete deep middle to M.Robinson (C.Rogers).
    3-9-MIN40 (6:31) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass incomplete short left to T.Williamson.
    3-12-MIN16 (2:43) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass short right to J.Wiggins to MIN 21 for 5 yards (L.Marshall).
    3-10-WAS34 (:24) B.Johnson pass short right to T.Williamson to WAS 28 for 6 yards (M.Rumph, L.Marshall) [S.Taylor].
    3-7-MIN47 (12:41) B.Johnson pass incomplete deep left to T.Williamson [V.Fox].
    3-9-WAS47 (11:47) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass deep middle to B.McMullen to WAS 25 for 22 yards (A.Archuleta).
    3-5-WAS20 (9:45) B.Johnson pass deep left to M.Robinson for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
    3-10-WAS36 (15:00) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass incomplete short middle to M.Robinson [M.Washington].
    3-9-MIN24 (9:39) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass deep middle to T.Taylor to MIN 48 for 24 yards (S.Taylor, L.Marshall).
    3-9-MIN48 (2:50) B.Johnson pass short right to T.Williamson to WAS 39 for 13 yards
    3-12-WAS13 (1:49) C.Taylor left end to WAS 13 for no gain (L.Marshall) ** Running clock out

    3-8-CAR8 (8:35) B.Johnson pass incomplete to T.Taylor.
    3-8-MIN29 (3:24) B.Johnson sacked at MIN 27 for -2 yards (D.Lewis).
    3-5-MIN25 (:29) B.Johnson pass incomplete to M.Robinson (J.Peppers).
    3-5-CAR33 (7:54) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass deep right to T.Taylor to CAR 10 for 23 yards (C.Gamble).
    3-15-CAR15 (6:14) M.Moore up the middle to CAR 4 for 11 yards (C.Branch).
    3-15-CAR37 (7:40) B.Johnson pass short right to M.Moore to CAR 33 for 4 yards (S.Williams).
    3-12-MIN39 (:25) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass incomplete to M.Robinson (R.Marshall) [J.Peppers].
    3-19-MIN7 (10:10) B.Johnson pass incomplete short right to M.Moore.
    3-13-CAR24 (8:30) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass short left to M.Moore to CAR 16 for 8 yards (C.Gamble).
    3-5-CAR45 (:43) B.Johnson pass incomplete to J.Wiggins.
    3-10-MIN32 (10:27) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass short left to T.Williamson pushed ob at CAR 38 for 30 yards (R.Marshall).

    3-8-CHI18 (11:32) B.Johnson pass to M.Moore to CHI 13 for 5 yards (L.Briggs).
    3-22-MIN44 (1:28) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass short left to M.Moore to CHI 46 for 10 yards (N.Vasher; D.Wesley).
    3-9-MIN24 (10:27) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass short right to T.Taylor to MIN 28 for 4 yards (R.Manning, T.Harris).
    3-10-MIN35 (7:22) B.Johnson to MIN 30 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at MIN 30. B.Johnson sacked at MIN 33 for -2 yards (A.Brown).
    3-5-MIN40 (7:02) B.Johnson pass short left to T.Richardson to MIN 47 for 7 yards (L.Briggs).
    3-11-CHI33 (2:49) (Shotgun) M.Moore right tackle to CHI 23 for 10 yards (A.Brown).
    3-7-CHI8 (1:18) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass incomplete to T.Taylor.
    3-8-MIN21 (8:48) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass incomplete short right to M.Moore.
    3-10-MIN26 (10:24) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass short left to B.McMullen to MIN 46 for 20 yards (R.Manning).
    3-5-MIN33 (4:29) M.Moore up the middle to MIN 41 for 8 yards (D.Manning).
    3-7-MIN41 (1:18) M.Moore right guard to MIN 46 for 5 yards (A.Ogunleye, L.Briggs).

    3-10-MIN40 (12:39) B.Johnson pass short right to T.Richardson to BUF 35 for 25 yards (D.Whitner, L.Fletcher-Baker).
    3-14-BUF28 (9:22) M.Moore left tackle to BUF 19 for 9 yards (D.Whitner, T.Anderson).
    3-12-MIN24 (6:12) B.Johnson pass short right to J.Wiggins to MIN 32 for 8 yards (T.McGee, A.Crowell). Flat pass, caught at MIN 31.
    3-6-MIN49 (12:06) B.Johnson FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIN 49, and recovers at MIN 49. B.Johnson to MIN 49 for no gain (A.Schobel).
    3-11-MIN42 (9:06) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass short middle to M.Moore to BUF 49 for 9 yards (K.Thomas).
    3-6-BUF47 (5:30) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass incomplete deep right to T.Williamson (R.Denney). Pass batted at line.
    3-15-MIN18 (7:53) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass short right to M.Moore to MIN 30 for 12 yards (T.McGee, C.Kelsay).
    3-10-MIN45 (4:01) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass incomplete short middle to R.Owens (D.Whitner). Overthrown, receiver at BUF 40. Defender at BUF 35.
    3-11-BUF31 (3:18) B.Johnson pass incomplete short middle to J.Wiggins
    3-10-BUF25 (:14) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass short right to B.McMullen to BUF 16 for 9 yards (A.Crowell).

    3-11-DET12 (5:29) B.Johnson pass short left to M.Moore to DET 3 for 9 yards (B.Bailey) [M.Bell].
    3-8-MIN47 (12:55) B.Johnson pass short left to M.Moore to DET 49 for 4 yards (E.Sims).
    3-8-MIN38 (4:35) (Shotgun)PENALTY on MIN-T.Williamson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 38 - No Play.
    3-13-MIN33 (4:32) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass deep right intended for T.Taylor INTERCEPTED by J.Fletcher [J.Hall] at DET 43.
    3-11-MIN19 (1:56) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass short right to M.Robinson to MIN 25 for 6 yards (E.Sims).
    3-7-MIN49 (6:43) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass short middle to T.Taylor to DET 44 for 7 yards (D.Bly) [J.Hall]. FUMBLES (D.Bly), RECOVERED by DET-K.Edwards at DET 44.
    3-5-DET10 (1:15) B.Johnson pass short right to J.Wiggins to DET 3 for 7 yards (P.Lenon, J.McGraw).

    3-6-MIN48 (8:30) B.Johnson pass incomplete short left to T.Taylor (K.Herndon).
    3-6-MIN24 (1:43) B.Johnson pass incomplete short left to B.McMullen.
    3-17-SEA40 (8:03) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass deep right to M.Robinson for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
    3-7-MIN33 (:24) B.Johnson pass short right to T.Taylor ran ob at MIN 42 for 9 yards.
    3-5-MIN47 (:06) (Shotgun) B.Johnson sacked at MIN 36 for -11 yards (J.Peterson).
    3-15-SEA15 (8:57) M.Moore pass to J.Wiggins for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. #14 Johnson laterals to #30 Moore who throws pass.
    3-8-SEA31 (6:37) B.Johnson pass short left to M.Robinson to SEA 28 for 3 yards (K.Herndon).
    3-7-MIN35 (13:28) B.Johnson sacked at MIN 29 for -6 yards (R.Bernard). FUMBLES (R.Bernard), recovered by MIN-M.Johnson at MIN 31.
    3-7-MIN48 (2:50) C.Taylor left guard to MIN 49 for 1 yard (B.Fisher). ** Running clock down

    3-11-NE41 (8:19) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass incomplete short right to M.Moore.
    3-8-NE33 (4:47) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass short right to T.Richardson to NE 25 for 8 yards (A.Hawkins).
    3-5-NE5 (:42) B.Johnson pass short right intended for M.Moore INTERCEPTED by R.Harrison at NE 0. R.Harrison to NE 2 for 2 yards (S.Hutchinson).
    3-7-MIN35 (9:55) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass deep middle intended for T.Williamson INTERCEPTED by C.Scott at NE 29.
    3-13-MIN17 (5:05) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass short middle to M.Moore to MIN 27 for 10 yards (M.Vrabel).
    3-10-NE49 (12:21) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass short middle to T.Richardson to NE 46 for 3 yards.
    3-5-NE44 (11:54) B.Johnson pass incomplete deep left to T.Williamson.
    3-8-MIN16 (2:13) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass incomplete to C.Taylor.
    3-28-MIN32 (10:59) (Shotgun) B.Bollinger sacked at MIN 30 for -2 yards (R.Seymour).
    3-11-NE15 (4:34) (Shotgun) B.Bollinger pass incomplete short right to B.McMullen.

    3-8-SF9 (4:36) B.Johnson pass short middle to T.Taylor to SF 3 for 6 yards (S.Spencer).
    3-6-MIN37 (4:36) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass incomplete to T.Taylor.
    3-16-SF48 (2:48) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass short middle to M.Moore to SF 44 for 4 yards (P.Haralson).
    3-7-MIN49 (:57) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass incomplete to T.Williamson.
    3-10-MIN41 (13:05) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass incomplete to T.Taylor [T.Slaughter].
    3-10-SF49 (9:08) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass short right to Be.Johnson to SF 38 for 11 yards (S.Spencer).
    3-6-SF34 (7:28) B.Johnson pass intended for T.Williamson INTERCEPTED by W.Harris (S.Davis) at SF 26.
    3-10-MIN38 (4:37) B.Johnson sacked at MIN 28 for -10 yards (sack split by B.Moore and A.Adams).
    3-7-SF27 (1:15) B.Johnson pass incomplete short left to T.Williamson.

    3-6-MIN41 (13:49) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass incomplete deep left to Be.Johnson.
    3-8-MIN30 (2:46) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass short right to T.Taylor to MIN 37 for 7 yards (A.Hawk).
    3-6-MIN22 (11:56) B.Johnson pass short right to T.Richardson to MIN 36 for 14 yards (A.Hawk).
    3-10-GB16 (8:01) B.Johnson pass short middle to C.Taylor to GB 1 for 15 yards (A.Hawk).
    3-10-MIN15 (4:03) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass deep right to Be.Johnson pushed ob at GB 45 for 40 yards (N.Collins).
    3-16-MIN49 (2:41) B.Johnson pass short middle to M.Moore to GB 49 for 2 yards (B.Poppinga).
    3-10-MIN20 (:36) M.Moore left tackle to MIN 35 for 15 yards (M.Manuel).
    3-8-MIN19 (13:25) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass short left to T.Taylor pushed ob at MIN 32 for 13 yards (N.Collins).
    3-18-MIN9 (13:05) B.Johnson pass short middle to M.Moore to MIN 18 for 9 yards (P.Dendy; C.Woodson).
    3-16-MIN14 (7:58) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass short middle to T.Taylor to MIN 22 for 8 yards (M.Manuel).
    3-7-MIN23 (13:38) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass incomplete short right to M.Moore [K.Gbaja-Biamila].
    3-14-MIN24 (10:34) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass short left to M.Moore to MIN 36 for 12 yards (C.Jenkins).
    3-10-GB16 (1:06) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass incomplete short left to B.McMullen.

    3-10-MIA49 (9:22) B.Johnson pass incomplete short right to M.Robinson.
    3-6-MIN24 (4:28) B.Johnson pass to M.Moore to MIN 29 for 5 yards (K.Carter).
    3-8-MIN33 (2:04) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass short right to M.Moore to MIN 38 for 5 yards (Z.Thomas).
    3-7-MIA41 (13:37) B.Johnson sacked at MIA 44 for -3 yards (D.Bowens).
    3-9-MIA17 (6:20) B.Johnson pass incomplete deep right to J.Wiggins.
    3-8-MIA45 (:30) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass incomplete short middle to T.Williamson.
    3-7-MIN33 (8:40) (Shotgun) B.Johnson pass short middle to T.Taylor to MIN 39 for 6 yards (Y.Bell).
    3-7-MIA30 (1:15) B.Johnson pass short middle to M.Moore to MIA 25 for 5 yards (Y.Bell
    3-10-MIA11 (:25) B.Johnson pass incomplete short left to B.McMullen.[/size]
    Zeus wrote:
    When are you going to realize that picking out the 20 bad throws this year and ignoring the 300 good ones does not make your point?

    =Z=

  2. #2
    NodakPaul's Avatar
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    Re: 3rd and Long - the Vikings Nemesis...

    A lot of talk is going around about our lack of effective offense, and the solution on a lot of people's lips is to make a major change to our starting roster.
    Changes can generate sparks, sparks can generate motivation, and motivation wins games... but changing players will not help if we don't correct some of the execution problems.

    After plowing through the stats for the last ten games, one thing jumped out at me.
    The Vikes face a lot of 3rd and longs.
    Out of the 147 third down attempts we have had this season, 103 (70%) of are 3rd and 5 or more yards.
    We are in the bottom of the league at converting 3rd downs as it is (33%), but when you make it third and long, we are even worse (22%).
    How or why we are getting into 3rd and long situations is not the point of my post.
    What concerns me is what we do on third and long.

    Watching the games, it seemed like we were always passing short of the first down marker and being stopped.
    I understand that Childress's system preaches the importance of YAC, but with the exception of Richardson, none of our receivers have preformed well in this area.
    Put it simply, we have had better success when we throw the ball past the chains on third down.
    We don't have to throw it 40 yards down field every time, but throw it at least 8 yards on 3rd and 7.

    Here is a breakdown of our passing actions on third and long, taken from the above data.
    Out of the 103 third and long attempts, we had 18 pass attempts past the chains, 9 incomplete passes of indeterminate distance, 10 plays that resulted in sacks and/or fumbles, 2 instances of running the clock out, and 64 pass attempts short of the first down marker.
    64!
    We are passing the ball short of the first down marker 70% of the time on third and long.

    Some people may be quick to point out that the short passes do work sometimes.
    I loved the short pass right to TWill on 3rd and 10 that resulted in a 30 gain against Carolina.
    But that is the exception, not the norm.
    The sad fact is that out of those 64 short pass attempts, only 14 (22%) resulted in a first down.
    Another 14 were incomplete.
    And 36 (56%) were caught, but the receiver failed to generate enough YAC to get the first down.

    This is a problem.
    Check down passes on 3rd and Long obviously are not working.
    I realize that there can be many reasons for resorting to the check down (for instance, the OL not giving the QB enough time to find a receiver past the marker), but my belief is that the play calling is the worst culprit.
    And play designed to put a receiver one yard shy of the first down marker is simply not a good play for 3rd down.
    I honestly think that if we were to start calling 3rd down plays that wait until the receiver is past the chains before getting them the ball, we will see a vast improvement in our offensive production.

    Feel free to poke large, glaring holes in my theory......... now.
    Zeus wrote:
    When are you going to realize that picking out the 20 bad throws this year and ignoring the 300 good ones does not make your point?

    =Z=

  3. #3
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    Re: 3rd and Long - the Vikings Nemesis...

    Thank you for the breakdown, it is refreshing to see something that isn't completely made up.
    Very interesting breakdown.
    Did you happen to look at the percentage of 3rd and longs were due to penalties?
    Another interesting aspect is how many 1st and 2nd downs were turned into 1st downs before 3rd was made.


    We are passing the ball short of the first down marker 70% of the time on third and long.
    That really makes me miss Cris Carter and his uncanny ability to catch the ball on the sidelines 1" past the chains.
    Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please. Mark Twain

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    Re: 3rd and Long - the Vikings Nemesis...

    I didn't look into the % of 1st and 2nd down conversions... I might look into that over the weekend, as I think it could be good information.


    As far as your question about penalties being the culprit of third and longs, they do play a significant part.
    There were 18 offensive penalties that were directly responsible for the third and long situation, and 2 that were indirectly responsible (already a third and long, but made it worse).
    That accounts for 19% of the third and longs.
    I need to research more to see if the drives with penalties were more or less likely to stall, but my guess is that 3rd and longs that were the result of a penalty were less likely to be converted than 3rd and Longs that were the result of normal play.
    I could be wrong on that one though...
    Zeus wrote:
    When are you going to realize that picking out the 20 bad throws this year and ignoring the 300 good ones does not make your point?

    =Z=

  5. #5
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    Re: 3rd and Long - the Vikings Nemesis...

    "Acumen" wrote:
    We are passing the ball short of the first down marker 70% of the time on third and long.
    That really makes me miss Cris Carter and his uncanny ability to catch the ball on the sidelines 1" past the chains.
    Man, I hear ya!
    Zeus wrote:
    When are you going to realize that picking out the 20 bad throws this year and ignoring the 300 good ones does not make your point?

    =Z=

  6. #6
    Prophet's Avatar
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    Re: 3rd and Long - the Vikings Nemesis...

    "NodakPaul" wrote:
    ...After plowing through the stats for the last ten games, one thing jumped out at me.
    The Vikes face a lot of 3rd and longs.
    Out of the 147 third down attempts we have had this season, 103 (70%) of are 3rd and 5 or more yards.
    We are in the bottom of the league at converting 3rd downs as it is (33%), but when you make it third and long, we are even worse (22%).
    How or why we are getting into 3rd and long situations is not the point of my post.
    What concerns me is what we do on third and long.

    Watching the games, it seemed like we were always passing short of the first down marker and being stopped.
    I understand that Childress's system preaches the importance of YAC, but with the exception of Richardson, none of our receivers have preformed well in this area.
    Put it simply, we have had better success when we throw the ball past the chains on third down.
    We don't have to throw it 40 yards down field every time, but throw it at least 8 yards on 3rd and 7.

    Here is a breakdown of our passing actions on third and long, taken from the above data.
    Out of the 103 third and long attempts, we had 18 pass attempts past the chains, 9 incomplete passes of indeterminate distance, 10 plays that resulted in sacks and/or fumbles, 2 instances of running the clock out, and 64 pass attempts short of the first down marker.
    64!
    We are passing the ball short of the first down marker 70% of the time on third and long.

    Some people may be quick to point out that the short passes do work sometimes.
    I loved the short pass right to TWill on 3rd and 10 that resulted in a 30 gain against Carolina.
    But that is the exception, not the norm.
    The sad fact is that out of those 64 short pass attempts, only 14 (22%) resulted in a first down.
    Another 14 were incomplete.
    And 36 (56%) were caught, but the receiver failed to generate enough YAC to get the first down.

    This is a problem.
    Check down passes on 3rd and Long obviously are not working.
    I realize that there can be many reasons for resorting to the check down (for instance, the OL not giving the QB enough time to find a receiver past the marker), but my belief is that the play calling is the worst culprit.
    And play designed to put a receiver one yard shy of the first down marker is simply not a good play for 3rd down.
    I honestly think that if we were to start calling 3rd down plays that wait until the receiver is past the chains before getting them the ball, we will see a vast improvement in our offensive production.

    Feel free to poke large, glaring holes in my theory......... now.
    Nice summary Nodak.
    It is really annoying and those stats confirm what many believe.
    Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please. Mark Twain

  7. #7
    sleepagent is offline Hall of Famer
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    Re: 3rd and Long - the Vikings Nemesis...

    "NodakPaul" wrote:
    A lot of talk is going around about our lack of effective offense, and the solution on a lot of people's lips is to make a major change to our starting roster.
    Changes can generate sparks, sparks can generate motivation, and motivation wins games... but changing players will not help if we don't correct some of the execution problems.

    After plowing through the stats for the last ten games, one thing jumped out at me.
    The Vikes face a lot of 3rd and longs.
    Out of the 147 third down attempts we have had this season, 103 (70%) of are 3rd and 5 or more yards.
    We are in the bottom of the league at converting 3rd downs as it is (33%), but when you make it third and long, we are even worse (22%).
    How or why we are getting into 3rd and long situations is not the point of my post.
    What concerns me is what we do on third and long.

    Watching the games, it seemed like we were always passing short of the first down marker and being stopped.
    I understand that Childress's system preaches the importance of YAC, but with the exception of Richardson, none of our receivers have preformed well in this area.
    Put it simply, we have had better success when we throw the ball past the chains on third down.
    We don't have to throw it 40 yards down field every time, but throw it at least 8 yards on 3rd and 7.

    Here is a breakdown of our passing actions on third and long, taken from the above data.
    Out of the 103 third and long attempts, we had 18 pass attempts past the chains, 9 incomplete passes of indeterminate distance, 10 plays that resulted in sacks and/or fumbles, 2 instances of running the clock out, and 64 pass attempts short of the first down marker.
    64!
    We are passing the ball short of the first down marker 70% of the time on third and long.

    [b]Some people may be quick to point out that the short passes do work sometimes.[/b]
    I loved the short pass right to TWill on 3rd and 10 that resulted in a 30 gain against Carolina.
    But that is the exception, not the norm.
    The sad fact is that out of those 64 short pass attempts, only 14 (22%) resulted in a first down.
    Another 14 were incomplete.
    And 36 (56%) were caught, but the receiver failed to generate enough YAC to get the first down.

    This is a problem.
    Check down passes on 3rd and Long obviously are not working.
    I realize that there can be many reasons for resorting to the check down (for instance, the OL not giving the QB enough time to find a receiver past the marker), but my belief is that the play calling is the worst culprit.
    And play designed to put a receiver one yard shy of the first down marker is simply not a good play for 3rd down.
    I honestly think that if we were to start calling 3rd down plays that wait until the receiver is past the chains before getting them the ball, we will see a vast improvement in our offensive production.

    Feel free to poke large, glaring holes in my theory......... now.
    So does completing passes PAST the 1st Down Marker.

    I can't believe our OFFENSE is that DUMB to employ that type of ignorant play calling . . . time after time after time after time after . . .

    Man, My opinion of CHILDRESS dropped a few notches in that category.

    "No Greater Friend . . . No Worse Enemy. U.S. MARINES"
    "FIND YOUR PASSION AND MAKE IT HAPPEN!"
    "SUCCESS LOOKS EASY TO THOSE THAT WEREN'T THERE WHEN IT WAS BEING ACHIEVED!"

  8. #8
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    Re: 3rd and Long - the Vikings Nemesis...

    "sleepagent" wrote:
    "NodakPaul" wrote:
    A lot of talk is going around about our lack of effective offense, and the solution on a lot of people's lips is to make a major change to our starting roster.
    Changes can generate sparks, sparks can generate motivation, and motivation wins games... but changing players will not help if we don't correct some of the execution problems.

    After plowing through the stats for the last ten games, one thing jumped out at me.
    The Vikes face a lot of 3rd and longs.
    Out of the 147 third down attempts we have had this season, 103 (70%) of are 3rd and 5 or more yards.
    We are in the bottom of the league at converting 3rd downs as it is (33%), but when you make it third and long, we are even worse (22%).
    How or why we are getting into 3rd and long situations is not the point of my post.
    What concerns me is what we do on third and long.

    Watching the games, it seemed like we were always passing short of the first down marker and being stopped.
    I understand that Childress's system preaches the importance of YAC, but with the exception of Richardson, none of our receivers have preformed well in this area.
    Put it simply, we have had better success when we throw the ball past the chains on third down.
    We don't have to throw it 40 yards down field every time, but throw it at least 8 yards on 3rd and 7.

    Here is a breakdown of our passing actions on third and long, taken from the above data.
    Out of the 103 third and long attempts, we had 18 pass attempts past the chains, 9 incomplete passes of indeterminate distance, 10 plays that resulted in sacks and/or fumbles, 2 instances of running the clock out, and 64 pass attempts short of the first down marker.
    64!
    We are passing the ball short of the first down marker 70% of the time on third and long.

    [b]Some people may be quick to point out that the short passes do work sometimes.[/b]
    I loved the short pass right to TWill on 3rd and 10 that resulted in a 30 gain against Carolina.
    But that is the exception, not the norm.
    The sad fact is that out of those 64 short pass attempts, only 14 (22%) resulted in a first down.
    Another 14 were incomplete.
    And 36 (56%) were caught, but the receiver failed to generate enough YAC to get the first down.

    This is a problem.
    Check down passes on 3rd and Long obviously are not working.
    I realize that there can be many reasons for resorting to the check down (for instance, the OL not giving the QB enough time to find a receiver past the marker), but my belief is that the play calling is the worst culprit.
    And play designed to put a receiver one yard shy of the first down marker is simply not a good play for 3rd down.
    I honestly think that if we were to start calling 3rd down plays that wait until the receiver is past the chains before getting them the ball, we will see a vast improvement in our offensive production.

    Feel free to poke large, glaring holes in my theory......... now.
    So does completing passes PAST the 1st Down Marker.

    I can't believe our OFFENSE is that DUMB to employ that type of ignorant play calling . . . time after time after time after time after . . .

    Man, My opinion of CHILDRESS dropped a few notches in that category.
    Just thinking out loud here, but sometimes I wonder if it's Childress' play-calling or if BJ's checking down to the 3rd or 4th option every time.
    WE CAN BUILD ON THIS!!!

    In AP I trust

  9. #9
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    Re: 3rd and Long - the Vikings Nemesis...

    "farvathevikinglover" wrote:
    Just thinking out loud here, but sometimes I wonder if it's Childress' play-calling or if BJ's checking down to the 3rd or 4th option every time.
    I honestly think it is a combination of the two.
    The checkdowns are obviously there by design, and BJ is too eager to use them IMHO.
    Zeus wrote:
    When are you going to realize that picking out the 20 bad throws this year and ignoring the 300 good ones does not make your point?

    =Z=

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    Re: 3rd and Long - the Vikings Nemesis...

    "NodakPaul" wrote:
    "farvathevikinglover" wrote:
    Just thinking out loud here, but sometimes I wonder if it's Childress' play-calling or if BJ's checking down to the 3rd or 4th option every time.
    I honestly think it is a combination of the two.
    The checkdowns are obviously there by design, and BJ is too eager to use them IMHO.
    I agree, that and McKinney getting blown away by the ends and the general cave in of the O-line on pass blocking.
    After the O-line switch against the Dolphins it appeared that BJ had some more time in the pocket.
    Hopefully that continues.
    Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please. Mark Twain

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