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[size=13pt]Third preseason game actually matters[/size]
August 25, 2007
Chris Littmann
sportingnews.com
Count me in the camp that believes we could cut the preseason slate in half. I think we figure out more about depth charts because of preseason injuries than actual performance...
from the last two years, of all the teams that won in preseason week three, 11 of them have 500 or better records. i did this this morning:
2005 preaseason week 3 winners:
alt, phi, chi, nyg, bal, min, was, ne,
car, air, sf,
mia, dal, den, sea, stl
500 record
8-8, 6-10 11-5 11-5 6-10 9-7
10-6 10-6 11-5 5-11 4-12 9-7
9-7
13-3 13-2 6-10
11 wins
2005 playoff teams:
ne, cin, pitt, indy, jac, den
2/6
nyg, was, chi, tb, car, sea
5/6
2006 week 3 wins:
car, phi, ari, min, nyg, oak, cle, ind, dal, atl, jac, ne,
sd,
kc, den, cin
500 record
8-8
10-6 5-11 6-10 8-8
2-14 4-12 12-4 9-7
7-9
8-8
12-4 14-2 9-7 9-7
8-8
11 wins
2006 playoff teams:
ne, nyj, bal, indy, sd, kc
4/6
phi, dal, nyg, chi, no, sea
3/6
Our backups STINK!!!
"cajunvike" wrote:
No....Green Bays backups stink.Quote:
Our backups STINK!!!
Ours just struggle
"gregair13" wrote:
This is a good theory, but I don't think the numbers really prove or disprove anything.Quote:
from the last two years, of all the teams that won in preseason week three, 11 of them have 500 or better records. i did this this morning:
2005 preaseason week 3 winners:
alt, phi, chi, nyg, bal, min, was, ne,
car, air, sf,
mia, dal, den, sea, stl
500 record
8-8, 6-10 11-5 11-5 6-10 9-7
10-6 10-6 11-5 5-11 4-12 9-7
9-7
13-3 13-2 6-10
11 wins
2005 playoff teams:
ne, cin, pitt, indy, jac, den
2/6
nyg, was, chi, tb, car, sea
5/6
2006 week 3 wins:
car, phi, ari, min, nyg, oak, cle, ind, dal, atl, jac, ne,
sd,
kc, den, cin
500 record
8-8
10-6 5-11 6-10 8-8
2-14 4-12 12-4 9-7
7-9
8-8
12-4 14-2 9-7 9-7
8-8
11 wins
2006 playoff teams:
ne, nyj, bal, indy, sd, kc
4/6
phi, dal, nyg, chi, no, sea
3/6
There are 16 games in week 3, so you would think 11/16 ~2/3 chance of being .500 or better is pretty good.
But in 2006 there were 20 teams at .500 or better for the regular season and 12 teams worse, which is also ~2/3.
It's a similar deal for the playoffs.
7/12 playoff teams for each of the past two years is more than half, but only one team more.
Not really statistically relevant.
That being said, it's possible that if we looked at a larger sample of historical data there could be a correlation.
Certainly the theory seems sound: you play your starters most of the third game, so it is more representative of a real game.
Of course, the preseason games don't matter theory also isn't bad.
Moral of story: don't put in Brooks Bollinger