Thread: Purplepat's Picks of the Week

OK, last year I posted some of my football picks....did great with some, horrible with others. This year I'll document my picks, we'll keep track of how I do, and when the money runs out, I shut up.

Here's the plan. I've deposited $50 into my SportingbetUSA.com account yesterday, that will be my stake for the entire season. The plan right now is to place a single parlay bet for the week and see what happens. Ideally, it will only be a two-to-four team parlay, but I'm sure I'll be inclined to come up with some big parlays and/or weird ass bets if I have any success at all early.

OK, so yesterday I deposited $50 in my account and was credited with a 10% ($5) account reload bonus. So I'm already up $5! Of course, then I violated my own rules by placing a $5 proposition bet that Randy Moss' longest reception would be over 29 yards last night. I won that one on the 73 yard TD bomb in the second quarter, so now the account is up to $59.

In the NFL, the name of the game is "Just win, baby". Betting on the favorites to "just win" usually pays very poorly, even in a parlay. Taking the favorite and giving the underdog X points can bite you because the favorites are concerned more about simply winning than covering the point spread. This week, I'm focusing on teams that I think are clearly superior to the teams they are facing, regardless of whether the game is at home or away. So here is my first parlay of the season (buying down the point spreads):

Minnesota -3 vs Tampa Bay
Cincinnati -3 @ Cleveland
Denver -3 @ Miami
St. Louis -3 @ San Francisco
Carolina to win vs New Orleans

$10 wagered to return $95.85

Carolina is a 7 pt. favorite at home against the Saints. Who knows how the Saints will respond given the Katrina tragedy and their nomad status? At any rate, I think the Panthers will be one of the best teams in the NFC this season and they should win their home opener.

Minnesota is a 6 point favorite at home against Tampa Bay. Tampa's offensive line is unsettled and should affect both the Buccaneers running game as well as the pass protection for Brian Griese. Still, the Vikings first string defense wasn't all that impressive in the preseason. I like the Vikes to win, but I feel safer just needing a FG rather than six.

Cincinnati is somewhat of a danger game. The Browns should be awful this season, the Bengals playoff contenders. Most of the faces on the Browns defense are different guys than last season, and they are installing a 3-4 this year under new coach Romeo Crennel. Carson Palmer enters his third season with his whole offense in good health. All signs point to a blowout by the Bengals, but much like the Vikings-Bears series, you can throw out the records when these two intrastate rivals face each other. The Bengals have lost to Cleveland in each of the last two seasons when they should have easily beaten them, and the Bengals have also gotten off to poor starts in each of Marvin Lewis' first two seasons. Nevertheless, I'll take the Bengals to win by a FG instead of the -3.5 the line is at.

Denver plays at Miami, who sports a new coach, new offensive coordinator, new QB, new rookie RB, a mess for an offensive line, and several of last season's starters in the secondary gone. I think Denver would cover the -4.5 point spread, but I'll play it safe and take less money to put the spread at -3.

St. Louis should totally overmatch the 49ers. At least the Niners had the good sense to start Tim Rattay at QB to give themselves a fighting chance. I think the Rams will probably cover the -6, but since it's a home game for the Niners and the Rams are inconsistent if anything, I'll chicken out and take less money for a 3 pt. spread.

Cincy over Clev is my lock of the week.

Hopefully

Cincy is a good lock .... too many question marks in the other games.

"sunny" wrote:

Cincy over Clev is my lock of the week.

Hopefully

Bro, Cincy will beat the Clowns. My lock also!

My "Lock" would be Rams over the 49'ers

purplepat,

So on this website you joined you can buy 3-3 1/2 from the Vikings, a -1 1/2 from the Denver Broncos, a 1/2 a point from the Bengals, -1 1/2 from the Rams, and a whole 7 points from the Carolina game?!?!?! Is that true? If it is, wow! Hats off to you my friend......I live in Vegas and there is no way you can do that kind of mix teaser or whatever you want to call it......You should put the same parlay/teaser back in and tease the Browns just in case; you could catch the middle and win both tickets....Let's see sportingbetUSA.com......I'm going to check that out cause that is like stealing....I don't think there is any way you lose!!!! Well maybe the Browns as I've stated. Maybe. Good luck man!

I think those are great picks there purplepat, good luck!

What a horrible start to the season! Didn't just lose to the spread, out and out lost four of five picks with the underdogs winning outright! At least it was only $10 and one week!

On a good note, SportingbetUSA is offering a "free" $10 bet each week of the football season. You have to have the $10 in your account to make the bet, but if you lose the bet you get your $10 back. It's a can't lose proposition. Of course, it's always an even money bet. This week, the bet was "Will Peyton Manning's longest pass completion be over or under 40.5 yards?" I correctly picked the under, so the $10 I lost in my parlay was recouped by correctly winning the free bet. My account should be at $59.00. But for some bizarre unknown reason, they are showing my balance as $79.00! I'm not complaining!

Here's hoping I can do better this week, but with all the favorites that lost it might be hard to find many games that I like.

I def. know what you mean PP. I didn't have money riding on any of the games, but man oh man, my office pool destroyed me. I was 7-9! Ewww....