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  1. #1
    singersp's Avatar
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    Overvalued or Undervalued?

    [size=18px]Sal Cap's back: Are you game?[/size]

    June 14, 2006

    We have an underrated friend at the Fantasy Source known simply as "Sal Cap." Not to be confused with a legendary cartoonist, consider him to be an Uncle Sam-like manifestation of our salary-cap based Ultimate Fantasy Football Game.

    While you've got your drafting and trading in head-to-head football leagues, Sal's got a different kind of challenge for you, and he's even nice enough to give you a cool $50 million to spend on trying to beat him. But before you sign up to play with Sal Cap and start assembling your team like a real NFL GM, you gotta see through Sal's traps.

    For some players, the price is right, while others, well it's just plain wrong. Knowing where to find the undervalued vs. the overvalued is the only way to get the better of Sal. Let the Cap game begin.

    Quarterbacks

    Undervalued: Brett Favre, Packers ($5.37M). Sure, Favre is 37 and his interception totals make us weary. But if you're looking for a durable dude who will chuck the ball around often, here's a guy nicely priced at 25th among quarterbacks. He still has the potential to approach 30 TDs and 3,500 yards.

    Overvalued: Marc Bulger, Rams ($8.56M). Bulger is a fine leader and passer, but his modest TD numbers and history of injuries make him a risky buy at that high price. He's second only to Peyton Manning. In addition, switching coaches from Mike Martz to Scott Linehan will lead to fewer passing attempts as running back Steven Jackson gets more involved. While more balance would lead to more wins and fewer injuries for Bulger, sacrificing fantasy stats would come with it.

    Running backs

    Undervalued: Chester Taylor, Vikings ($3.08 M). Stop if this sounds familiar -- former backup for a big-name veteran signs into a starting gig with a run-starved offense. Like LaMont Jordan made a name for himself away from Curtis Martin, Taylor gets a chance to show his running and receiving skills fulltime away from Jamal Lewis. He'll be used often and get plenty of touches, which will bring plenty of good stats. Basically, you'll get similar -- or better -- all-around numbers for less than half of the price of Jordan. Within the confines of the Fantasy Source offices, Taylor has become the consensus "sleeper" RB in all league formats.

    Overvalued: LaMont Jordan, Raiders ($7.69M). The Raiders were supposed to have an exciting, pass-happy offense a season ago, but with bad pass protection and the injuries to Randy Moss (nagging) and Ronald Curry (season-ending), it became a heavy dose of dump-offs to Jordan. I don't see 70 receptions again, and seven of his 11 total TDs came in three home games. I see more of Al Davis football under Art Shell, which will have Aaron Brooks air it out often for a team that will find itself trailing often.

    Wide receivers

    Undervalued: Matt Jones, Jaguars ($2.29M). Jimmy Smith's retirement opens the door for both Jones and Ernest Wilford (only $3.17M). While I see Wilford helping traditional fantasy leaguers more early because of the lanky frame that makes him such a TD threat, Jones is more intriguing for the long run. Reports are he's looking great in the first wave of his second-year practices, and really, since November, the light has been on. His 1,000-yard potential as a starter makes him a sneaky find way down the list.

    Overvalued: Anquan Boldin, Cardinals ($6.79M). There will be fewer touches and touchdowns to go around in Arizona with Edgerrin James becoming a major factor in both the running and passing games. Although Boldin and fellow Cards receiving stud Larry Fitzgerald have similar talents, I favor Fitzgerald in emerging as the "No. 1" producer. If I'm spending this much on a wideout, I'd rather have the Rams' consistent and true No. 1 (Torry Holt at $6.55M) or Fitzgerald for $480K cheaper than his teammate.

    Tight ends

    Undervalued: Alex Smith, Buccaneers ($1.60M). It takes a while for members of the popular young club of athletic tight ends to take advantage of all their privileges -- the second year for them is much like the third year for wide receivers of the same mold. With Carnell Williams established as a top feature back and Joey Galloway once again reemerging as a top deep threat, Smith should find more room to roam in the intermediate zone. He'll also run better routes and show better hands. His two-TD NFL debut against the Vikings teased us with his talent; we'll see more of it this season.

    Overvalued: Erron Kinney, Titans ($2.56M). Kinney was a good plug-and-play for many weeks last season -- that changes with the QB change from Steve McNair to Billy Volek. Volek has great chemistry with wide receiver Drew Bennett, and newcomer David Givens gives the team a legitimate No. 1. If healthy, Ben Troupe figures to be the busier Tennessee tight end. On top of all those factors, it's easy to pass on buying a guy who's splitting time.

    Defenses

    Undervalued: Cowboys ($4.14M). 'Big D' should refer to what kind of defense the pro football faithful can expect in Dallas this season once the team's young 3-4 starts coming together. Up front, second-year players Chris Canty, Marcus Spears and DeMarcus Ware should boost the team's sack total, and rookie linebacker Bobby Carpenter gives the team more playmaking potential. This unit is on the rise, so it's wise to get the 'Boys before their stock shoots up during the season.

    Overvalued: Bears ($6.50M). This is a less a knock on the Bears and more support for spending your significant cap cash at other, more valuable positions. If you're into burning plenty of trades in a cap game, here's a good way to save money. You can get great scoring out of cheap, mediocre defenses by playing off the juicy matchups from week to week. As for the Bears, they're still the best at the position. Unfortunately, you'll need to pay quite a premium to get them.

    Kickers

    Undervalued: Adam Vinatieri, Colts ($2.09M) Although the former Patriot Vinatieri didn't have one of his trademark seasons in '05, he has a great chance to rebound with the Patriots' AFC archrivals, kicking indoors at home for a more prolific offense. As James' presence in Arizona will mean more TDs there, his absence in Indianapolis will mean a few additional red zone stalls -- and increased field-goal attempts.

    Overvalued: Jay Feely, Giants ($3.44M). With so little difference between the best kickers and the average starting kickers, there is no reason to waste money here. Feely was a surprise as the NFL's top scoring kicker, as much as Neil Rackers ($4.18M) was in becoming fantasy's top scoring kicker. Chances are there will be two other kickers undervalued going into this season who will rise to produce at those levels.

    Vinnie Iyer is the NFL projects editor and a Fantasy Source Football expert for Sporting News.

    Sal Cap's back: Are you game?

    "If at first you don't succeed, parachuting is not for you"

  2. #2
    Benet's Avatar
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    Re: Overvalued or Undervalued?

    Shouldn't this be in the Fantasy Talk forum?

  3. #3
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    Re: Overvalued or Undervalued?

    "Benet" wrote:
    Shouldn't this be in the Fantasy Talk forum?
    Why? Because Favre is undervalued? :grin:

    "If at first you don't succeed, parachuting is not for you"

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    Benet's Avatar
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    Re: Overvalued or Undervalued?

    "singersp" wrote:
    "Benet" wrote:
    Shouldn't this be in the Fantasy Talk forum?
    Why? Because Favre is undervalued? :grin:
    :razz:

    Seriously though, because it's the opinion of Fantasy Source and their guy "Sal Cap". It's also an article about this guy's league and how it's structured (by salary constraints as well as the usual draft) and who is the best and worst fit for his league.

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    singersp's Avatar
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    Re: Overvalued or Undervalued?

    "Benet" wrote:
    "singersp" wrote:
    "Benet" wrote:
    Shouldn't this be in the Fantasy Talk forum?
    Why? Because Favre is undervalued? :grin:
    :razz:

    Seriously though, because it's the opinion of Fantasy Source and their guy "Sal Cap". It's also an article about this guy's league and how it's structured (by salary constraints as well as the usual draft) and who is the best and worst fit for his league.
    :???: But if a sports writer or Joe Schmo has an opinion, it's not fantasy?

    "If at first you don't succeed, parachuting is not for you"

  6. #6
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    Re: Overvalued or Undervalued?

    "singersp" wrote:
    "Benet" wrote:
    "singersp" wrote:
    "Benet" wrote:
    Shouldn't this be in the Fantasy Talk forum?
    Why? Because Favre is undervalued? :grin:
    :razz:

    Seriously though, because it's the opinion of Fantasy Source and their guy "Sal Cap". It's also an article about this guy's league and how it's structured (by salary constraints as well as the usual draft) and who is the best and worst fit for his league.
    :???: But if a sports writer or Joe Schmo has an opinion, it's not fantasy?
    Those aren't real salary numbers. Those are Fantasy Football Salary Numbers for a league which has a salary cap in place, rather than just picking your players.

    Acccording to ESPN.com, Favre is scheduled to make $10M in real salary this season, not the $5.37M in the article. They are not saying that Favre is undervalued in reality - but that he is undervalued at only $5.37M in this guy's fantasy league.

    =Z=

    Thanks to Josdin for the awesome sig!

  7. #7
    Bdubya is offline Star Spokesman
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    Re: Overvalued or Undervalued?

    "AWZeus" wrote:
    "singersp" wrote:
    "Benet" wrote:
    "singersp" wrote:
    "Benet" wrote:
    Shouldn't this be in the Fantasy Talk forum?
    Why? Because Favre is undervalued? :grin:
    :razz:

    Seriously though, because it's the opinion of Fantasy Source and their guy "Sal Cap". It's also an article about this guy's league and how it's structured (by salary constraints as well as the usual draft) and who is the best and worst fit for his league.
    :???: But if a sports writer or Joe Schmo has an opinion, it's not fantasy?
    Those aren't real salary numbers. Those are Fantasy Football Salary Numbers for a league which has a salary cap in place, rather than just picking your players.

    Acccording to ESPN.com, Favre is scheduled to make $10M in real salary this season, not the $5.37M in the article. They are not saying that Favre is undervalued in reality - but that he is undervalued at only $5.37M in this guy's fantasy league.

    =Z=
    Plus, the entire Bears defense isn't paid $6.5 Million. That would be uber fantasy.
    MC's run away when I kick it
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