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  1. #1
    singersp's Avatar
    singersp is offline PPO Newshound
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    Off-season lowdown: Dump these guys

    [size=18px]Off-season lowdown: Dump these guys [/size]

    Gregg Rosenthal Ratawsrld.com
    Posted: 8 hours ago


    One key to playing in dynasty and keeper leagues is the ability to unload a player at the right time.

    It takes anticipation – thinking months and years in advance. Player stock is in a constant state of flux that owners should take advantage of whenever possible.

    One example came in my favorite dynasty league last November. I was hoping to unload Kerry Collins all season. Although my team was on its way to a playoff berth, it wasn't a serious title contender. I suspected Collins would get cut in the off-season and fall way out of the top ten quarterbacks. After weeks of negotiating, there was an offer on the table that would have sent Collins, Andrew Walter, Doug Gabriel and change for Jason Campbell, Justin McCareins, a second-round rookie draft pick, and change. Collins was putting up consistent stats at the time and I didn't pull the trigger fast enough. I've regretted it ever since.

    Letting a player go at peak value takes confidence, but it's a necessary skill. With that in mind, we've come up with a list of players whose value looks ready to take a nosedive. The NFL Draft will alter the dynasty landscape by adding competition for veterans on every team. We'll try to anticipate who could get knocked down the depth charts. Next week, we'll look at some veterans who are solid buy low candidates.

    Brad Johnson, QB, Vikings

    Every time coach Brad Childress opens his mouth (which is a lot), he makes it clear Brad Johnson is not his quarterback of the future. Johnson continues to be called the Vikings starter "for now" or "at this moment" which translates to "not in 2007."
    Minnesota has offered a second-round pick to Atlanta for Matt Schaub and could revisit the trade on Draft Day. If Schaub is acquired, he might start right away. If Schaub isn't acquired, Minnesota is likely to draft their "quarterback of the future."

    If you own Johnson, consider yourself lucky. He was probably picked up off the waiver wire for nothing. While he looks like a solid fantasy league QB2 on paper, consider that he was the third quarterback behind Brian Griese and Chris Simms in Tampa not too long ago. He's 38 years old. No matter who the Vikings acquire, Johnson probably has a 50-50 chance to finish the 2006 season as Minnesota's starting quarterback. Better to deal him now.

    Dominic Rhodes, RB, Colts

    I've seen Rhodes ranked ridiculously high in a few offseason rankings. Sure, he's atop the running back depth chart in Indianapolis at this moment. He's also managed 3 yards-per-carry last season on the best offense in football. He's lucky to have a job at all and the Colts are going to draft their starting running back in the Draft.

    Ron Dayne, RB, Broncos

    Think twice before joining the stampede of owners assuming Ron Dayne will excel in a feature back role. (Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)

    In the dynasty league I mentioned above, Ron Dayne was on my roster for two whole years. I sat through his terrible last days and release from New York. I never imagined that he'd contribute to my team, but my roster was so thin that I just hoped lightning would strike when he landed in running back heaven.

    It finally happened this offseason. Dayne re-signed with the Broncos and started to get buzz in the Denver papers as the favorite to start at running back. My patience had paid off - I dealt him immediately.

    Visions of Dayne racking up Mike Anderson numbers danced in my head, but so did Denver's two first-round picks. Coach Mike Shanahan has taken a first-day running back every season since 1999. That meant Dayne would be competing with Tatum Bell and a possible blue-chipper like LenDale White. Dayne's contract also bothered me. If Dayne had such a good chance to start, why did he sign a backup running back's contract?

    This was my chance to get quality in exchange for Dayne, so I dealt him with Keary Colbert in exchange for Chester Taylor. Colbert is a young receiver who I believe will have a productive NFL career. It hurts to trade players like that in dynasty leagues, but you have to give up something to get something. Keyshawn Johnson signed with the Panthers a week later; proving it never hurts to be lucky.

    Dayne was the key to the deal, though. If you own him in dynasty leagues, you might be surprised by how highly other owners value him. The Denver running back is a powerful drug. Take advantage before the buzz wears off.

    Ashley Lelie, WR, Broncos

    Like Dayne, Lelie could easily be usurped by a first-round draft pick. Lelie hasn't shown up to offseason workouts and has been the subject of a few trade rumors. It appears Denver has given up on Lelie developing into a complete receiver. The deep threat would make one of the better No. 3 receivers in football, but you can get much better trade value for him now.

    Kyle Boller, QB, Ravens

    Boller apologists are out there. Find them. They will point to his improved finish in 2005, ignoring his week 17 collapse. They will look at the Baltimore roster and see only Brian St. Pierre and Derek Anderson behind him on the depth chart.

    Boller might not get a chance to compete for the starting job in Baltimore next season. If Steve McNair is released by Tennessee and joins the Ravens, Boller will be his backup. If McNair goes elsewhere, Boller will probably compete with Kerry Collins for playing time.

    One person that is no longer a Boller apologist is coach Brian Billick. More than any coach in football, he artificially inflates his never-ending belief in his players. That changed late last season with Boller. He has openly stated Boller's job is not secure. We're not sure if Boller's fantasy value will get any higher during his career than it is right now.

    Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett, RBs, Falcons

    There are 4-5 first-round quality running backs available in this draft. Where will they go? We think Atlanta is a likely landing spot, which will knock down the value of both these players. DeAngelo Williams would be a natural replacement for Dunn, while LenDale White and Laurence Maroney both are fits for Atlanta's one-cut scheme. Duckett, who has reportedly been offered in trades, may not even be on the roster next season.

    Samie Parker, WR, Chiefs

    On paper, Parker made great strides in his second season. In reality, he dropped an amazing amount of passes and is going to miss Dick Vermeil. Many fantasy heads see Parker as an emerging star, but he's a shaky bet at best. It's not a bad time to sell any Chief not named Larry Johnson, especially one like Parker who could face competition for playing time from a first-round pick.

    Gregg Rosenthal directs the football coverage for RotoWorld.com and Fantasy Sports Monthly. You can reach him at [email protected]

    Off-season lowdown: Dump these guys

    "If at first you don't succeed, parachuting is not for you"

  2. #2
    chilifoot is offline Starter
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    Re: Off-season lowdown: Dump these guys

    makes sense.... i don't think anyone is counting on BJ as a long-term solution... and the organization would be fools to do so

  3. #3
    cc21 is offline Ring of Fame
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    Re: Off-season lowdown: Dump these guys

    Why would Denver get rid of Ron Dayne? That guy was an absolute stud for them last season. Doesn't make sence to me but whatever I guess.

  4. #4
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    viks_fan21 is offline Asst. Coach
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    Re: Off-season lowdown: Dump these guys

    Well, since the NFL isn't fantasy football, I find this read irrelevant.

  5. #5
    Slade is offline Star Spokesman
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    Re: Off-season lowdown: Dump these guys

    "viks_fan21" wrote:
    Well, since the NFL isn't fantasy football, I find this read irrelevant.
    I 2nd that....but still interesting from a fantasy point of view

  6. #6
    chilifoot is offline Starter
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    Re: Off-season lowdown: Dump these guys

    i think this is stricly just a fantasy football thing.... who cares if you find it irrelevant

  7. #7
    singersp's Avatar
    singersp is offline PPO Newshound
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    Re: Off-season lowdown: Dump these guys

    "chilifoot" wrote:
    makes sense.... i don't think anyone is counting on BJ as a long-term solution... and the organization would be fools to do so
    Might also be one reason they haven't given Brad a starting QB contract. :wink:

    "If at first you don't succeed, parachuting is not for you"

  8. #8
    minvikes01's Avatar
    minvikes01 is offline Pro-Bowler
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    Re: Off-season lowdown: Dump these guys

    interesting from a fantasy point of view, but nothing i couldn't have figured out myself

    Thanks to PPE for the awesome Sig.

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