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  1. #1
    COJOMAY is offline Jersey Retired
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    Number Of College Games Started predict QB NFL Effectiveness

    ESPN did a study regarding the difference between success and lack of success among young NFL quarterbacks.
    Here it is.

    In 1998, the Colts faced one of the most important decisions in franchise history.
    With the No. 1 overall pick, would they take Manning or Leaf?
    Peyton proponents argued he was more mature and accomplished.
    Leaf backers argued he had the stronger arm and the most growth potential.
    But all the Colts really needed to know was four numbers:
    Manning started 45 college games, completing 63% of his passes:
    Leaf started 24 games, completing 54% of his passes.
    The future couldn't be more clear.

    It's true:
    College statistics really can predict NFL performance.
    For our 2006 Pro Football Prospectus, we studied 10 years worth of drafts and discovered that the single greatest indicator of NFL success for QBs taken in the first two rounds is the number of college games they started.
    Philip Rivers, for one, started 51 games at NC State.
    Donovan McNabb started 49 college games and Carson Palmer started 45.
    On the flip side, busts-to-be Joey Harrington (28), Jim Druckenmiller (24) and Akili Smith (19) had relatively little starting experience.

    The other important predictor is completion percentage.
    Ben Roethlisberger completed more than 65% of his college passes.
    Rivers completed 64%.
    Both Manning brothers had completion percentages above 60%, as did Drew Brees, Matt Leinhart and Vince Young.
    Leaf and Druckenmiller on the other hand, couldn't complete 55% of their passes.
    Harrington, Smith, and Cade McNown barely did.
    Kyle Boller didn't complete even half of his college passes.

    What about the QBs in the 2007 draft??
    Brady Quinn started 46 games and completed 58% of his passes, almost identical to McNabb and halfway between Palmer and Jay Cutler.
    JeMarcus Russell completed 62% of his passes but had just 29 starts.
    Those are numbers similar to Kellen Clemens and Rex Grossmans.

    How many college games did Jackson start and what was his completion %??
    Kentucky Vikes Fan

    When you require nothing, you get nothing; when you expect nothing, you will find nothing; when you embrace nothing, all you will have is nothing.

  2. #2
    kyleo1967's Avatar
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    Re: Number Of College Games Started predict QB NFL Effectiveness

    03 and 04 barely 50%, haven't found 05 numbers his first year as a starter

    Stats GP Att-Cmp-Int
    Pct
    Yards
    TD
    LG
    Avg/G
    Rtg

    2003 13
    316-160-13
    50.6
    2,342
    18
    75
    180.2
    123.4
    2004 12 349-182-9
    52.1
    2,556
    20
    60
    213.0
    127.4
    Total 25
    665-342-22
    51.4
    4,898
    38
    75
    195.9

  3. #3
    kyleo1967's Avatar
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    Re: Number Of College Games Started predict QB NFL Effectiveness

    jumped to 60% in 2005

    http://vikings.scout.com/2/525974.html

  4. #4
    COJOMAY is offline Jersey Retired
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    Re: Number Of College Games Started predict QB NFL Effectiveness

    No figure on how many games he played. That is important. If you only threw one pass and completed it you would be 100%.
    Kentucky Vikes Fan

    When you require nothing, you get nothing; when you expect nothing, you will find nothing; when you embrace nothing, all you will have is nothing.

  5. #5
    The Dropper's Avatar
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    Re: Number Of College Games Started predict QB NFL Effectiveness

    He started 35 of 36 games played (link here) and his total college completion percentage was 53.63% (554 comp. of 1033 att.).

  6. #6
    COJOMAY is offline Jersey Retired
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    Re: Number Of College Games Started predict QB NFL Effectiveness

    Based then on the study above he will be "Medicore?"
    Kentucky Vikes Fan

    When you require nothing, you get nothing; when you expect nothing, you will find nothing; when you embrace nothing, all you will have is nothing.

  7. #7
    Ltrey33 is offline Jersey Retired
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    Re: Number Of College Games Started predict QB NFL Effectiveness

    That 53% completion percentage against I-AA competition has always scared me.

  8. #8
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    Re: Number Of College Games Started predict QB NFL Effectiveness

    "Ltrey" wrote:
    That 53% completion percentage against I-AA competition has always scared me.
    Keep in mind he also did it with I-AA receivers & an I-AA offensive line.

    "If at first you don't succeed, parachuting is not for you"

  9. #9
    kyleo1967's Avatar
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    Re: Number Of College Games Started predict QB NFL Effectiveness

    also during his college career 1265 yds rushing 11 tds

  10. #10
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    Re: Number Of College Games Started predict QB NFL Effectiveness

    Tom Brady went 20-5 in college

    Joe Montana had 22 starts in college.
    I don't think Brett Farve started a whole ton of games but I couldn't find his college stats

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